What they need: A first baseman; a third
baseman; a veteran, part-time catcher; a power left field bat; a veteran starting pitcher.
Free
agents: RHP Miguel Batista; LHP Erik Bedard; 3B Adrian Beltre; 1B Russell Branyan; OF Endy Chavez; 1B/DH Mike Sweeney
Batista didn't pitch all that badly out of the bullpen last season after a rotten 2008, but he's finishing
up a big contract; is about to turn 39; and should get offers as a back-of-the-rotation starter or reliever somewhere. He
won't be back.
Bedard was a disaster on and off the field after being acquired as the
"final piece" of a contending puzzle for the Mariners before 2008. There's been talk that the Mariners want him
back on a mutually advantageous contract, and with another type of person, I'd say that Bedard might feel he owes the Mariners
something after his injuries and cantankerous behavior was such a train wreck, but he'll go elsewhere and the Mariners should
say good riddance.
Beltre is a fine fielder and is a leader in the clubhouse. His power has
"mysteriously" disappeared after a 48 homer year in 2004 with the Dodgers. He's in demand and won't be back.
Branyan had his career-year with the Mariners in 2009, but he's a journeyman with giant holes in his
game (he strikes out too much and won't repeat his 31 homer campaign). He wants a 2-year deal, which the Mariners aren't going
to give him. I'd advise Branyan to stay in Seattle where he finally had the success that's been predicted for him since his
big league arrival 11 years ago. There's a good chance he'll be back.
Chavez blew out his knee
in a collision with Yuniesky Betancourt in June. He might be back once he rehabs and proves he's healthy.
Sweeney is a veteran journeyman who's well-liked and can still hit a bit. He might be back.
Players
available via trade: RHP David Aardsma; 3B/OF Bill Hall; RHP Felix Hernandez; RHP Brandon Morrow; RHP Carlos Silva
I've always liked Aardsma's arm and he put it all together at age 27, saving 38 games. After bouncing
from the Giants to both Chicago teams and the Red Sox, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik and manager Don Wakamatsu turned Aardsma
into a solid closer. That said, it could've been his career-year and if someone is hypnotized by the prospect of Aardsma having
"figured it out" and offers something good for him, they should seriously consider moving him.
Hall is overpaid (almost $9 million guaranteed through next season) and his offensive production fell off the cliff
after a 35 homer year with the Brewers in 2006. The only way he's moved is if the Mariners take back another contract like
Mike Lowell. It's not out of the realm of possibility because there's a fit there.
Teams----especially the Yankees and Red Sox----are hovering around and trying to pry Hernandez away. He's supposedly not available,
but a big enough offer and the willingness to take a rotten contract along with him might put him in play. Zduriencik is willing
to do most anything. Hernandez is arbitration-eligible and depending on where the talks for a long-term contract go, he could
be moved. I don't expect it, but...
Like the ghost of Jacob Marley floating above the
head of Ebenezer Scrooge, Brandon Morrow may never live down the slender, diminutive and quirky hippie following him around.
That would be the two-time National League Cy Young Award winner and Washington State native Tim Lincecum.
Through no fault of his own, Morrow has become the
object of vitriol of fans and media members who ceaselessly remind the Mariners and Morrow himself that he was drafted five
spots ahead of Lincecum in the 2006 draft. I'm on the record as saying that I would've taken Morrow as well. He was more of
a prototype, had a cleaner motion and was the safer choice. Obviously, I would've been wrong.
I still believe in Morrow's ability. While the attention paid to the way
Joba Chamberlain has been jerked around by the Yankees on the other coast, Morrow has been screwed with just as badly by the
Mariners without the national exposure and debate. He's been a starter; he's been a closer; and he's living in the Lincecum
shadow. He needs to get out of Seattle and I think both he and Zduriencik know this.
While I think Chamberlain belongs in the bullpen, Morrow can be a big-time
starter. Similar to the Bedard fiasco, Zduriencik isn't constrained by having been the one to draft Morrow----it was a done
by the previous administration----so he'll be more willing to move him. How would Morrow to the Mets for Mike Pelfrey look?
To the Cardinals for Jason Motte?
I think Morrow's going to get traded and it's best for all involved.
You want Silva? He's
yours. Owed $13.5 million guaranteed through next season, Silva has pitched about as poorly as a human being can pitch in
his two years with the Mariners. I literally could've done just as badly (and probably better) for a fraction of the cost
and I haven't picked up a baseball and thrown it with intent in 15 year; plus my elbow's shot. A 5-18 record with a 6.81 ERA
and rotten across-the-board stats at that salary isn't just bad, it's embarrassing.
Non-tender
candidates: OF Ryan Langerhans; LHP Jason Vargas; INF Josh Wilson
It seems so long ago
that Langerhans and Jeff Francoeur were promoted as the Braves outfield cornerstones. Francoeur has since been traded to the
Mets; and Langerhans has gone from the Braves to the Athletics, the Nationals and now the Mariners. He'll be non-tendered.
I'm not going into one of my usual rants about Jason Vargas. Suffice it to say that anyone who thinks
Vargas has any use whatsoever as a big league pitcher either hasn't seen him pitch or doesn't know what they're talking about----he's
not any good. If Zduriencik goes to arbitration with Vargas, he's out of his mind.
Wilson is a useful utility player, but you can find players like him under a rock.
Players
to pursue:
Via free agency: 1B Adam LaRoche (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks);
3B Melvin Mora (Orioles); OF Jason Bay (Red Sox); RHP Rich Harden (Cubs); C Ramon Castro (White Sox); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies);
1B/3B Aubrey Huff (Orioles); LHP Jarrod Washburn (Tigers); SS/3B Miguel Tejada (Astros); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); C Miguel
Olivo (Royals); 3B Chone Figgins (Angels); RHP John Lackey (Angels); RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); LHP Randy Wolf (Dodgers);
RHP Carl Pavano (Twins); 1B/DH Carlos Delgado (Mets); C Brian Schneider (Mets); LF Johnny Damon (Yankees); C Jose Molina (Yankees);
RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); 3B Pedro Feliz (Phillies); RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies);
3B Troy Glaus (Cardinals); C Gregg Zaun (Rays); 3B Hank Blalock (Rangers); C Rod Barajas (Blue Jays); RHP Ben Sheets
Depending on what happens with Branyan, there are viable alternatives if the Mariners aren't ready
to trust Mike Carp as their everyday guy. Delgado has to prove he's healthy in the winter. LaRoche and Johnson could fall
to the Mariners depending on the market; and Huff could play first or third base.
Bay has been linked with the Mariners and would be a perfect fit on and off the field. They're not going to break the bank
for him, so I don't see it happening.
Figgins wants a lot of money (which I don't think
he's worth) but he'd fill the third base hole left by Beltre. Glaus and Mora are lower-cost stopgaps.
Washburn was happy in Seattle and pitched well before he collapsed when he was traded to the Tigers. They're not getting
into a bidding war for him, but his return coud happen. The other starters mentioned----Wolf, Pavano, Davis----wouldn't be
super-expensive and, if healthy would fill the back-end of the rotation adequately and relatively cheaply.
The Mariners have been linked with Lackey. There's a chance of that happening.
Via
trade: C Jorge Posada (Yankees); RHP Joba Chamberlain (Yankees); RHP Phil Hughes (Yankees); 3B Mike Lowell (Red Sox);
RHP Clay Buchholz (Red Sox); RHP Michael Bowden (Red Sox); RHP Daniel Bard (Red Sox); RHP Manny Delcarmen (Red Sox); OF Carl
Crawford (Rays); 1B Lyle Overbay (Blue Jays); OF/DH Luke Scott (Orioles); LF Delmon Young (Twins); RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers);
1B Paul Konerko (White Sox); 3B Jhonny Peralta (Indians); OF David DeJesus (Royals); 3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); RHP Josh
Johnson (Marlins); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); C John Baker (Marlins); RHP Derek Lowe (Braves); LHP Oliver Perez (Mets); RHP Mike
Pelfrey (Mets); OF/1B Adam Dunn (Nationals); RHP Jason Motte (Cardinals); OF Milton Bradley (Cubs); RHP Bronson Arroyo (Reds);
3B Garrett Atkins (Rockies); 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (Padres); RHP Chris Young (Padres); 1B Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)
Some of the names may seem odd and most are completely out of left field, but they make sense in theory
and aren't going to happen barring a totally unforeseen set of circumstances.
Yankees GM Brian Cashman would love to be rid of Posada and the Mariners are a fit; but Posada's
not okaying a trade in general and he won't okay a trade to Seattle in particular, so forget it.
Oliver Perez is mentioned as a "you take my headache, I'll take yours"; if the Mets would take Silva, the
Mariners would probably take Perez.
Yes, I mentioned Milton Bradley. He'd be perfect to
get out from under the Silva contract and might fill the need in left field if he behaves himself. (Yah. Right.)
The prospects mentioned----Buchholz, Chamberlain, Hughes, etc----would have to be part of any deal
involving Felix Hernandez.
Peralta, Atkins and Kouzmanoff would fill the hole at third base left
by Beltre.
Zduriencik let finances and sentiment interfere in his decision-making
process as the club kept Ken Griffey Jr for another year when they would've been better served to move on with a more productive
veteran DH like Jim Thome. It was a mistake.
The difference between "on the block" and
"possibly available":
Must I explain everything to the uninitiated and blockheaded to reality?
In recent days, we've seen story after story saying that the Marlins' Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez
are not "on the trading block". In a similar vein, the Tigers' Edwin Jackson is on the block. There's a
subtle difference, but said difference is not as great as is portrayed.
Because a player isn't being thrown out there as a commodity that must be moved doesn't mean
he's not up for discussion. Are the Marlins desperately trying to trade Johnson or Ramirez? Are the Rays making similar plans
for Carl Crawford? The Mariners with Felix Hernandez? No. But that doesn't mean they won't listen when a team calls and starts
exchanging names on what it would take to get such players.
To say they're "not trading Johnson or Ramirez" or that they're "not on the block"
is a cloudy subterfuge rife with semantics that is in line with the out-of-context nonsense of Moneyball. These players can
be had...if enough is offered for them.
Are they getting traded? Probably not, but it's possible. Find stuff to write about and stop wasting people's time with this
non-story please. It ain't that hard.
Apparently, Tiger's wife was angry that he's been spending
too much time reading this blog. So she had good reason to come after him with the club.
If ever there was a reason to beat someone with a golf club, it's that.
Michael Fierman writes RE my 20/20 Hindsight postings:
Hey- I just got around to reading all of your 20/20s this morning. Great stuff; you had me -yes actually laughing out loud...I have to say it is refreshing to read
an article that isn't filled with numbers stated as dogma that cannot and must not be questioned. Anyway as far as predicting
the AL or NL Central. I believe it is beyond man or machine... I'll get to your Hot stove Previews later-Have a good
one M~
Glad to help.
People are under the mistaken impression that I have a problem with those that use numbers to come
to their projections and it's the furthest thing from the truth. Considering the haphazard results from anyone and everyone
who tries to predict what's going to happen in a given season, their way isn't any better or worse than anyone else's. My
problem is that they don't own it when they're wrong.
When a team like the Diamonbacks collapses, you never see any of them saying, "I screwed up"; you hear, "well,
they didn't live up to their statistical projections".
No kidding!!!
I have no tolerance for alibi-artists.
What's even worse is when they don't say anything at all as if silence is going to make it all go away. Well, they ignore
me and I'm not going away. I'm their recurring nightmare and it's about to get much, much worse in the next few months.
Are the players and their agents beginning to
panic yet?
In case anyone hadn't noticed,
the only free agents who've signed contracts are those that have little choice but to grab whatever they can as soon as a
decent enough offer is on the table. Fallen stars the likes of Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel have signed with the White Sox;
useful but limited Alex Gonzalez with the Blue Jays; middling Ramon Hernandez with the Reds; and Freddy Sanchez with the Giants----all
signed early before greed, the economy and the saturated market forced them to take far less than what they were guaranteed
to get if they held out.
The days
of teams panicking and doing something stupid in November appear over. The prevalent attitude of, "here's the offer,
it's on the table; and if you don't accept it in a timely fashion, we're moving on"; and certain players like Kyle Lohse
and Bengie Molina seeing their big money dreams evaporate before their very eyes in recent years has given the direct advantage
to the front offices if they're patient and/or smart.
Since the days of collusion in 1986-87, I can't remember seeing a free agent market so dead when there
are plenty of useful players available. Contrary to popular notion, there are many good players to be had, but since so many
options, teams----even the notoriously aggressive ones like the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels----are holding their fire.
In years past, the Yankees would already have signed
Mark DeRosa and Mike Gonzalez. The Red Sox would have Matt Holliday. The Angels would've made their annual deep strike for
whatever player they'd secretly targeted in their war room. Now, everyone's waiting to see what the other guy's going
to do and it's costing the players (and their agents) a lot of money.
Don't discount the massive number of players who aren't going to be tendered contracts within the next
month; or the trade possibilities. Two aces----Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson----are out there to be had for any team willing
to trade a chunk of their farm system. Derek Lowe and Gil Meche----historically good pitchers who are overpaid----will be
given away to any team who'll take their contracts. Then there are Erik Bedard; Ben Sheets and Rich Harden----gifted talents
whose injury histories and (in Bedard's case) attitude have sent them to the bargain bin. There's no reason for any team to
acquiesce to the Blue Jays demands for Halladay and on top of that lavish a lucrative extension on the pitcher himself if
they can wait things out and see what else comes up.
The free agent/trade market is flush with players at every position even in the harder to fill spots like starting
pitching, center field and catcher. Closers are everywhere which means a team with bullpen holes like the Yankees and Mets
might be able to sign a former closer like Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Takashi Saito for a far more reasonable amount of money
to be a set-up man than they would've in years past.
You need a second baseman? Dan Uggla and Michael Young are out there.
A shortstop? You can sign Marco Scutaro or Miguel Tejada; you might even be able to trade for Yunel
Escobar or, wait for it.....Hanley Ramirez.
A center fielder? Curtis Granderson's name is bouncing around.
A closer? Bobby Jenks; Heath Bell; Jose Valverde; Billy Wagner; J.J. Putz to name a few are there for
the taking.
A five-tool star in his prime?
Carl Crawford will be traded by the Rays.
A two-fisted basher in his mid-20s? How about Miguel Cabrera?
Then there are the big name free agents----Jason Bay and Holliday----who want to get paid and could
be seeing their dollars decrease exponentially with each passing day.
Moneyball, the economy and financial sanity are referenced as why teams are treading more carefully
in the free agent market. Whether Moneyball existed or not, teams would've been cowed by the way horrendous contracts doled
to average players Vernon Wells, Carlos Guillen and Alex Rios; or on disasters like Oliver Perez and Milton Bradley, and held
their fire, refusing to dive into the empty pool only to crack their heads open and worse.
Years ago, Charlie Finley's idea regarding free agency was to let every
single player be a free agent at the end of every year. It was ignored as the rantings of a crank who was trying to reinvent/ruin
the game with his wild ideas. For all the vitriol he attracted, Finley was a smart, savvy businessman and keen judge of talent.
Because he was seen as such a prick and so unpopular with his players, employees and fellow owners, it was easy to dismiss
him, but he was right. And we're seeing it now.
Even the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and White Sox are waiting to see what the other guy's going to do. The reasonably
priced players who can replicate the production of what would normally be a hot ticket is keeping the price of every player
down. Because of that, teams that wouldn't be able to improve with a household name can do so because so many quality players
are on the clearance rack. It's going to get worse and worse and you'll see more players grabbing whatever they can before
they're sitting out in February looking for work and firing their agents because of unfulfilled promises.
It's the new world in baseball.
Let the man retire:
Bud Selig has reportedly rejected the idea that he extend his contract as commissioner
to 2012 when he'll be 78-years-old.
First of all, the guy's an empty suit. By all accounts, he's a nice man who means well, but as a commissioner, he's been a
wishy-washy butt of jokes for his attempts to bring the game into the new millennium with such "innovations" as
the bad-infomercial style announcing of the names selected in the June draft. It's not as if he's creating buzz in the game
with his personality and style. A mannequin could do his job they way Selig does it.
Second, he's old. I know I wouldn't want to be dealing with suspending Milton
Bradley; handling the steroid mess; or functioning as a ridiculed puppet at that age. Does he need the aggravation? It's not
going to be hard to find someone to replace him, so why is this even a story?
Tiger, Tiger, bleeding profusely:
I have no idea what happened with Tiger Woods and his wife; nor did
I believe the story of a simple car accident and injuries when it happened; then it degenerated into disinterest/let me know
what really happened when the truth comes out.
I will say this: the embarrassment and trouble for Woods and his image will only get worse as the story spirals out of control.
The less he and his representatives say about this, the bigger the explosion will be. Much like Mark McGwire and his cringeworthy
bouts public speaking, Woods will learn that it's easier to get whatever happened out there and let the public forget. This
is only going to get bigger and bigger the longer he's silent.
As for his wife chasing him with a golf club? I've said this over and over again on Twitter, but I'll
repeat it here: those Scandinavian chicks are feisty and he's lucky she was Swedish and not Finnish.
Trust me there. They're smart. Too smart for their own good sometimes.
But
Prince, don't you remember? Matsui ONLY wants to go where there are other Japanese playing. Haha. I couldn't resist that dig.
I don't know if anyone (Maddux, Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver or Cy Young himself) could EVER help Ollie Perez. How is he
even in the big leagues anymore? That's what I want to know.
It would probably upset Tim McCarver's world of absurd stereotypes if Matsui went anywhere where there wasn't a compatriot
waiting for him (even if McCarver's fantasy of his preferred compatriot---Ichiro----doesn't like Matsui and vice versa). Hopefully,
McCarver won't say something about Yao Ming being in Houston without taking into account that the man's Chinese. Then Tim
would really have some explaining to do and maybe have to attend a sensitivity class to keep his job.
With Perez? Shhhhhh!!! I'm trying to get him out of here!
All kidding aside, no one's ever questioned his talent. There will be a year in his career where he puts it all together
and wins 18 games. In which uniform it'll be is a mystery. Perez will always have a team willing to roll the dice on him in
the hopes of hitting the jackpot. Someone will, they'll benefit and then watch him self-destruct again.
James
Mason writes RE the Rangers:
A fine article on the Rangers, however, the last thing
the Rangers need is a first baseman. Yes, Chris Davis had a bad sophomore year but he's an MVP candidate in
waiting - aside from that at AAA looms Justin Smoak, probably the number 3 or 4 top prospect in baseball.
Thanks for the compliment.
The Rangers need a bat to DH or play the outfield. The first basemen I mention----Adam LaRoche,
Lyle Overbay, Nick Johnson----are short-term stopgaps who'd fill the need inexpensively. With Adrian Gonzalez, I don't think
anyone would question him to replace Davis and in any deal to get hm, Smoak would probably be going the other way.
I haven't seen enough of Davis to know what his problem
was last year, but anyone who strikes out that much (238 in 736 big league plate appearances) needs some more seasoning. If
the pitchers have figured him out, he's going to have to adjust----and fast. At least with guys like Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard
and Mark Reynolds, they're hitting enough homers and getting on base at a high enough clip to swallow the strikeouts. Davis
could become that type of hitter, but he's not yet.
With the market
as it is, the Rangers can get that bat for DH/LF and let Davis find his way; but if a LaRoche or Johnson falls to them, they
need to make that move.
I'll work under the assumption that the Rangers
ownership/financial problems won't cause a massive sell-off and that they'll be able to bring in some reasonably priced players.
I'd hate to see all the progress they've made in the past couple of years sabotaged by the economy.
What
they need: A big-time power bat at 1B/OF; an innings-eating horse starting pitcher; a more reliable closer; a part-time
catcher.
Free agents: 3B/1B Hank Blalock; OF Marlon Byrd; LHP Eddie Guardado; C Ivan
Rodriguez
They have no place to play Blalock and were trying to move him for years. He'll
get a chance to be a DH elsewhere, probably with a moderate contender.
Byrd will be in demand
for the next tier of teams who either don't have the money to chase Jason Bay/Matt Holliday; or don't have the chips to trade
for Carlos Lee/Miguel Cabrera. He had his career power year with 20 homers and 43 doubles; he'll cash in elsewhere.
Guardado has more comebacks in him than Mickey Rourke. Someone always wants to sign "Everyday
Eddie"; there's a chance he's back with the Rangers.
Someone will sign Rodriguez and he might even get
an opportunity to play relatively regularly----more so than he'll get with the Rangers. That said, considering the struggles
of Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden, Pudge might want to stay in his original big league home in the hopes of playing
in 100 or so games. I think he's shot and the Rangers should move on, but he might be back after testing the market.
Players available via trade: OF Nelson Cruz; RHP Frank Francisco; OF Josh Hamilton; RHP Brandon
McCarthy; RHP Kevin Millwood; LHP C.J. Wilson; INF Michael Young
Cruz is arbitration-eligible
and in demand after finally busting out after many years of tearing apart Triple A and failing in the big leagues. He'll be
30 at mid-season 2010 and the Rangers might do well to move him now before he reverts back to what he was.
Francisco is arbitration-eligible and due a big raise from his $1.6 million salary in 2009. He's not a very reliable
closer and would be very expensive to keep. He has trade value.
Betraying my normal,
cold-hearted indifference, I truly hope that Josh Hamilton stays clean and sober and is able to fulfill his ridiculous talent.
I mean that. With that, it's a pure blast of realism and money that I say the Rangers should see what the market is for Hamilton.
He had numerous injuries last season
that cost him almost half the season; he's arbitration-eligible; and for all the good will and admiration he prematurely received
for battling his demons and coming back to be a productive player and person, he's always a risk to fall of the wagon or worse
as he did last winter when he got caught drinking and partying.
I don't trust addicts until they've been clean for at least five years. That's just the way it
is with me. Even then, I'd tread lightly with them. And under no circumstances would I even consider giving Hamilton a long-term
contract and a lot of money in the bank. No way. If I were the Rangers, I'd cut my losses with Hamilton and move him.
It's nothing personal.
It's strictly business.
McCarthy
has been injured for chunks of the past two years, but he's still an intriguing talent. Perhaps they could package him in
a deal for another similar pitcher who's had injury problems and has shown talent like Joel Zumaya of the Tigers. Both are
arbitration-eligible.
Millwood has $12 million due him next year and then he's a free agent.
He's effective when he's healthy and has value. I think he gets traded.
Wilson is a lefty who
can close; he racks up the strikeouts (84 in 73 innings in 2009); he's also got a very big mouth and is arbitration-eligible.
He'd bring back a decent return in a trade.
Young's contract is essentially unmovable unless the
Rangers were willing to take back a Vernon Wells, an Oliver Perez, a Carlos Guillen or some other hideous contract. That said,
I'd explore such a move if I were the Mets or Tigers to get rid of a player they no longer want and bring in the solid citizen
Young. He can play second or third, is one of the most well-respected players in baseball and can still hit. Stat zombies
criticize Young, but I like the way he hits and plays the game. He could get dealt.
Non-tender
candidates: INF/OF Esteban German; RHP Jason Grilli
German has use as a utility
player, but he's a guy you can find much cheaper than the raise he'll get in arbitration from his $1.2 million salary in 2009.
Gone.
Grilli's an arbitration-eligible journeyman. He won't be back.
Players to pursue:
Via free agency: 1B Adam LaRoche (Braves); RHP
Rafael Soriano (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); LHP Billy Wagner (Red Sox); RHP Rich Harden (Cubs); C Ramon Castro
(White Sox); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); C Yorvit Torrealba (Rockies); RHP Fernando Rodney (Tigers);
RHP Kiko Calero (Marlins); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); RHP Jose Valverde (Astros); C Miguel Olivo (Royals); DH Vladimir Guerrero
(Angels); RHP John Lackey (Angels); C Brad Ausmus (Dodgers); DH Jim Thome (Dodgers); CF Mike Cameron (Brewers); RHP Braden
Looper (Brewers); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); C Brian Schneider (Mets); DH Hideki Matsui (Yankees); C Jose Molina (Yankees); RHP
Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); C Paul Bako (Phillies); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); 1B Russell
Branyan (Mariners); RHP Joel Piniero (Cardinals); C Gregg Zaun (Rays); C Rod Barajas (Blue Jays)
Depending on what the Rangers intend to do for a closer, there are many viable options for a short-term replacement
who'd either like to play in Texas (Wagner) or someone trying to replenish his value (Putz). They can find a replacement for
Francisco/Wilson if they really want to.
The starting pitching market will be flush with cheap,
useful names like Marquis, Harden and Bedard. Myers is an intriguing possibility as both a starter or reliever. Piniero will
probably be too rich for the Rangers blood (I think Piniero's going to the Mets), but he's a contact pitcher who keeps the
ball on the ground and would do well in Texas if he remembers the lessons he learned with the Cardinals and under the tutelage
of Dave Duncan. Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux is reaching the same guru status after his work with Scott Feldman and
Millwood.
Matsui, Guerrero and Thome would put up big numbers in Texas as their DH.
Johnson and LaRoche could fall to the Rangers as the market clears.
There are plenty of viable, part-time veteran catchers available to tutor Teagarden and Saltalamacchia. Barajas is
a one-time Ranger; and Schneider would be a good fit.
Via trade: OF Carl Crawford (Rays); 1B Lyle Overbay
(Blue Jays); RHP Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox); OF/DH Luke Scott (Orioles); 3B/1B Ty Wigginton (Orioles); OF/1B/DH Miguel Cabrera
(Tigers); RHP Joel Zumaya (Tigers); 1B Paul Konerko (White Sox); RHP Bobby Jenks (White Sox); OF David DeJesus (Royals); OF
Juan Rivera (Angels); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); DH Jack Cust (Athletics); RHP Michael Wuertz (Athletics); OF Cody Ross
(Marlins); 3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); RHP Matt Lindstrom (Marlins); RHP Josh Johnson (Marlins); RHP Derek Lowe (Braves);
LHP Oliver Perez (Mets); OF Milton Bradley (Cubs); OF Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs); C Russell Martin (Dodgers); OF Aaron Rowand
(Giants); RHP Chris Young (Padres); 1B Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)
The Rangers farm system
is loaded, so they could get pretty much any player they want via trade; and that includes Crawford (he's from Texas);
Josh Johnson; Cabrera; Martin; and Morrow.
I know, Bradley's a time bomb; but he also had his
best year physically, practically and behaviorally with the Rangers and under Ron Washington in 2008. They'd get him for nothing;
could have the Cubs pay a big piece of his salary; or dump some big money of their own if they took him.
No one in their right mind would want to deal with Perez, but if the Mets agreed to take the Young contract, maybe.
Plus the Rangers could hope that Maddux would work his magic with the flighty Perez.
GM Jon Daniels's worst trade was the one that sent Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez to the Padres for Adam Eaton and Akinori
Otsuka. It's conceivable that they could reboot the deal and get both Young and Gonzalez back for prospects. Gonzalez would
be a triple crown threat in Texas.
I'd keep tabs on what the Red Sox are doing with Papelbon.
While he's probably not overtly available, I think he's a negotiable commodity because of the way the Red Sox do business
in not wanting to overpay for a closer and that his mouth has gotten tiresome. It doesn't hurt to ask.
You're
a week behind me fellas:
There are now voices from supposedly "credible" people that are putting forth the information that because of Josh
Johnson's reps breaking off talks with the Marlins for a long-term contract that the Marlins would be willing to deal Johnson
"right now".
Here's some advice: formulate some
thoughts on your own rather than from some random set of out-of-context numbers and/or stuff swiped from your betters.
And here's some more news that should
be obvious if you had a brain: not only would the Marlins move Johnson in the right deal, they'd move Hanley Ramirez too
if a team offered enough!!!
Why would the Angels want Damon and/or Matsui if they're
ready to discard Figgins and Vlad? Sort of seems like they want to go younger and cheaper.
The Angels aren't looking to get younger and cheaper; but they're always looking to get better. Even with Matsui's
physical limitations, he can still hit and he's a fit for the Angels clubhouse. So is Damon, but Matsui would be more willing
to do a short-term deal.
Gabriel writes RE Vladimir Guerrero:
I'd like to see Guerrero in a Blue Jays uniform. A man can dream. And not sexually speaking.
The offers for Guerrero aren't likely to be very lucrative or long term, so there's every possibility
that he could fall to the Blue Jays. (I think he ends up with the White Sox.)
We need to work on the level of absurdity for your dreams; this one's not that
far-fetched.
The Angels are a machine and proved this year
they're as mentally tough as they are smart and ballsy.
What they need: A third baseman; a power DH; a
veteran, innings-eating starting pitcher; bullpen help.
Free agents: 3B/OF
Chone Figgins; DH Vladimir Guerrero; RHP John Lackey; LHP Darren Oliver; INF/OF Robb Quinlan; RHP Kelvim Escobar
The Angels would like to keep Figgins, but more than any other club save perhaps the Red Sox, the Angels
have shown the propensity to letting veteran stars go when they've outlived their usefulness. Figgins is in demand and wants
a lot of money----more money than the Angels will be willing to pay for a third baseman with no power and whose speed game
will be compromised as he ages. Figgins isn't young (he'll be 32 in January) and while there's a chance he could end up back
with the Angels if the offers he receives aren't as lucrative as he expects, I think he's gone.
Guerrero's bat has slowed; his body's breaking down and he doesn't hit for enough power to stay as a full time DH.
He's gone.
Lackey is in heavy demand for clubs that will pay far more money
than the Angels will. The Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, White Sox and a few others will keep tabs on the gutty righty. It's highly
unlikely he returns to the Angels.
Oliver has been an integral part of the Angels bullpen
in recent years and while he likes living and playing in Anaheim, he should have some decent offers elsewhere. He's often
talked of retirement and changed his mind; as long as he's effective and wanted, he'll continue to pitch. I'd be stunned if
he leaves the Angels.
Quinlan's no great shakes as a utility player. Gone.
After fulfilling his massive potential in 2007 and winning 18 games, Escobar has pitched in one game in the past two
seasons with shoulder problems. He could be back with the Angels on a minor league deal.
Players
available via trade: LHP Brian Fuentes; OF Juan Rivera; C Jeff Mathis; OF Gary Matthews Jr; SS Brandon Wood
Fuentes led the league in saves, but it was a never-ending adventure with him and his frequent gack
jobs in blowing one of the ALCS games and nearly blowing another could spur the Angels to strike quickly (one of their specialties)
and replace Fuentes with an available closer in a market flush with intriguing alternatives. Fuentes is only guaranteed $9
million next year with a 2011 option, so he's movable.
Rivera had a solid year with 25 homers, but I get
the impression the Angels would like an upgrade in the power/threat department. He's got $9.5 million guaranteed through 2011.
Mathis had a rotten year at the plate before turning into George Brett in the playoffs. He doesn't
hit enough to play every day and is arbitration-eligible. The hot post-season could spur a team to deal for him and give back
something useful.
Matthews Jr wants out of Anaheim so he can play more frequently; the Angels
want out from under the $23 million Matthews Jr is still owed through 2011. The only way they move the contract is if they
take back someone else's headache. It'd have to be a pretty big headache (Milton Bradley?). Don't count on it.
Wood's stock has fallen to almost nothing. Is he the wrecking machine he was in the minors? Or is he
a "4-A" player a la Russ Morman who can demolish Triple A pitching, but can't hit in the majors? Someone will take a chance on Wood if the Angels
really want to move him in a deal for a bat or an arm.
Non-tender candidates: OF Reggie Willits
I doubt they'll non-tender Willits, but he's arbitration-eligible.
Players
to pursue:
Via free agency: LHP Mike Gonzalez (Braves); RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves);
LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); OF Jason Bay (Red Sox); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); RHP Octavio Dotel (White Sox); RHP Jason
Marquis (Rockies); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); SS/3B Miguel Tejada (Astros); DH Jim Thome (Dodgers); 1B/DH Carlos Delgado (Mets);
RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); LF Johnny Damon (Yankees); DH Hideki Matsui (Yankees); 3B Pedro Feliz (Phillies); INF/OF Mark DeRosa
(Cardinals); OF Matt Holliday (Cardinals); 3B Troy Glaus (Cardinals); RHP Joel Piniero (Cardinals); 3B/1B Hank Blalock (Rangers);
RHP Juan Cruz (Royals)
The Angels have historically played their cards close to the vest and
made lightning-like quick strikes on what had heretofore been clear days. (They've also made said strikes right around Thanksgiving,
so keep your eyes open.)
The way
manager Mike Scioscia manages relies on a deep bullpen and Gonzalez or Soriano would function as excellent set-up men. I'd
prefer Gonzalez, but Soriano would be cheaper.
Bay and Holliday are the hot free agent names and
while the Angels have appeared reluctant and outright denied interest in Holliday (they're not fans of Scott Boras after the
Mark Teixeira negotiations when awry), don't be stunned to see a big splash. They're in play for Bay and there's a real good
chance he winds up an Angel, and fast.
Thome is still the old-school, two-fisted slugger
he's always been and would come on a short-term deal for a chance at a World Series title.
Dye would fit right in with the solid citizens that permeate the Angels clubhouse and he can still hit.
Tejada and Glaus (a former Angel) would be short-term solutions for third base; DeRosa would be an
all-too-perfect replacement for Figgins----he'll be cheaper and he's a better hitter.
Davis, Piniero or Marquis would fill the need for a mid-rotation starter who'd benefit from the Angels solid defense.
Via trade: OF Carl Crawford (Rays); RHP Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); 1B Lyle Overbay (Blue Jays); OF/DH
Luke Scott (Orioles); RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers); INF/OF Brandon Inge (Tigers); OF Curtis Granderson (Tigers); 1B Paul Konerko
(White Sox); RHP Gil Meche (Royals); RHP Kevin Millwood (Rangers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); OF Cody Ross (Marlins);
RHP Matt Lindstrom (Marlins); RHP Josh Johnson (Marlins); 3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); C John Baker
(Marlins); RHP Derek Lowe (Braves); RHP Francisco Cordero (Brewers); 3B Garrett Atkins (Rockies); 1B Adrian Gonzalez (Padres);
RHP Chris Young (Padres)
Crawford is going to be available; the Angels and Rays have a trading
relationship after the Scott Kazmir deal; the Angels have the money to pay for Crawford's extension; and he's a perfect fit.
The Angels are in on Halladay and his acquisition would make them World Series favorites immediately.
The Tigers payroll slash could benefit the Angels in several ways. What if the Angels said to the Tigers
they'd give them Brandon Wood, Jose Arredondo and Gary Matthews Jr (salary dump) for Inge, Granderson and Nate Robertson?
Granderson could play left and the sheer speed of him and Torii Hunter would make the left side of the Angels outfield defense
the place where triples go to die.
Konerko has long been an object of the Angels affections,
but the discussed three-way deal that would sent Konerko to Anaheim, Adrian Gonzalez to the White Sox, and prospects to the
Padres might be better for the Angels if they just tried to get Gonzalez themselves.
Meche and Millwood are pricey, but would serve the purpose as mid-rotation starters with big upside and they could
get them by just agreeing to take the contracts.
The Marlins fire sale would benefit the Angels greatly.
Uggla would be a great fit. Cantu fills the third base hole if Figgins leaves.
Trading for Lowe (who the Braves are desperate to move) could get Matthews Jr's contract out of Anaheim; and he'd be an innings-eater
for the rotation to replace Lackey. Lowe's post-season pedigree is a big plus.
Atkins
is being shopped by the Rockies and he too would fill the third base hole left by Figgins.
The
comedy that is the Pirates:
Much like two years ago when the Pirates traded Jason Bay, Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte; or when they signed Ramon Vazquez
and Eric Hinske as if they were acquiring the last pieces to a championship puzzle; and then turned around at mid-season 2009
and cleaned out the house of their remaining veterans----Nate McLouth; Adam LaRoche; Nyjer Morgan; Jack Wilson----while getting
middling return on the 2008 and 2009 trades, they're now making moves that don't even qualify as head-scratching; they qualify
as the basis to have someone committed.
After trading a young power arm in Jesse Chavez to the Rays for Akinori Iwamura, they're now said to be interested in Rangers
free agent Hank Blalock and Cardinals outfielder Rick Ankiel.
No. I don't know why.
With each passing moment and bewildering maneuver, it becomes abundantly clear that there's not even a loony plan in
place in Pittsburgh----like the Joker (and me), they just do things. The Joker and
I have an excuse----we're agents of chaos. What's the Pirates' excuse?
With little more than ineptitude from the puppet GM Neal Huntington and the pomposity of team
president Frank Coonelly, the new regime has done the near-impossible. And no, I don't mean make the Pirates into a viable
franchise with a chance to compete; I mean they've made the previous regime of Kevin McClatchy and Dave Littlefield look good
in comparison.
The Siberia of baseball
is far too kind to describe them. Going to the Pirates is more like going to Mars, except the air quality and chance of survival
are worse when putting on a Pirates uniform. Far worse.
You'd think that the Royals would be a boring
subject, but I do so love watching train wrecks----especially ones that are not my own. And those days are over for me anyway.
I've been awakened. Four lightning strikes are on the way from me within the next eight months. I'm a man of my word.
What they need: Two starting pitchers; bullpen help; a center fielder; a power bat for right field/DH.
Free agents: LHP Bruce Chen; CF Coco Crisp; C Miguel Olivo; RHP Jamey Wright; RHP Juan Cruz
Chen's a journeyman who's bounced from team-to-team for his whole career. He could be back with the
Royals.
Crisp was hurt and didn't hit
for the Royals. Trading for him was one of a multitude of stupid things that GM Dayton Moore did in the past year. Someone
will pick Crisp up since center fielders are hard to find and he can still play the position defensively; nor will he be as
bad as he was at the plate as he was for the Royals. He won't be back.
Olivo has a shotgun arm, is good with the pitchers and has pop. He'll get a better offer elsewhere.
Wright was miscast as a set-up man in the Royals haggard
bullpen, but he has use as a low-cost reliever for a team like the Marlins or Rays who find such pitchers and get production
out of them.
Cruz
didn't have a good year with the Royals, but he's got a great arm and someone will give him a decent contract for a better
team.
Players available via trade: RHP Roman Colon; OF
David DeJesus; RHP Kyle Farnsworth; OF Jose Guillen; DH/1B Mike Jacobs; RHP Gil Meche; RHP Robinson Tejeda
Colon has a good arm, but he's arbitration-eligible, is a non-tender candidate and could bring back a minor leaguer
in a trade.
DeJesus is a valuable commodity; he's no star, but he can hit with
some pop; run a bit; and play center field. He's also signed to a reasonable contract through 2011 ($5.2 million guaranteed
with a very reasonable $6 million option for 2011). They could get a pretty good package of decent minor leaguers for DeJesus.
You want Kyle Farnsworth? He's yours.
Guillen
has some attractiveness because he's only signed through next year even though he's getting $12 million. They'd have
to take a similarly expensive contract back for him, but I think he'll get moved to a team hungry for offense like the Giants.
He does have power.
You want Jacobs? He's yours. Arbitration-eligible and horrible for
the Royals (.228 Avg; .297 OBP; 19 homers; 132 strikeouts), Jacobs was acquired from the Marlins in a deal for Leo Nunez that
was one of last winter's dumbest. It was right up there with Moore signing Kyle Farnsworth and trading for Crisp. The Royals
GM is consistent in his idiocy.
Meche's signing was criticized when it was made,
but he was an innings-eating horse in his first two years with the Royals; his record in those two seasons of 23-24 was no
indicator of how well he pitched. He was hurt in 2009 and he's expensive ($24 million guaranteed through 2011), but he could
be had for nothing and if he's healthy, and might be a great stealth pickup for someone.
At age 27, Tejeda came into his own and pitched up to his abilities. I always liked his stuff. His strikeout numbers
(87 in 73 innings) are fantastic, but he's due a big raise in arbitration and the Royals are playing with fire if they expect
him to repeat that performance. I have no idea what Moore's going to do, but I'd explore trade options for Tejeda.
Non-tender candidates: INF Wilson Betemit; RHP Roman Colon; 1B/DH Mike Jacobs; INF Tony Pena Jr.;
C Brayan Pena
If the Royals go to arbitration with Betemit, Moore should be fired
immediately and they should sue so they don't have to pay him off.
Colon and Jacobs were discussed earlier; I doubt that Moore will non-tender Jacobs, but it would
be the right move if he can't trade him.
Tony Pena Jr is apparently being made into a pitcher, so he's not going anywhere.
Brayan Pena can catch and play the corner infield positions; I wouldn't dump
him.
Players to pursue:
Via free agency: LHP
Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); RHP Rich Harden (Cubs); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); 1B/3B Aubrey
Huff (Orioles); RHP Kiko Calero (Marlins); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); RHP Kelvim Escobar (Angels); DH Vladimir Guerrero (Angels);
RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); DH Jim Thome (Dodgers); CF Mike Cameron (Brewers); RHP Carl Pavano (Twins); 1B/DH Carlos Delgado
(Mets); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); OF Randy Winn (Giants);
3B/1B/DH Hank Blalock (Rangers); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); RHP Ben Sheets
There's
a market for some of the cheaper,mutually advantageous signings like Harden, Pavano; Bedard and Sheets.
Once everything shakes outand teams fill their holes, one or two could fall to the Royals.
The veteran bats like Guerrero,
Dye and Thome could be in a similar situation. Dye played for the Royals before. Delgado will get a good offer on an incentive-laden
deal from someone, so he's not going to Kansas City.
Cameron would be perfect for the Royals.
Via trade: OF Melky Cabrera (Yankees); RHP Brandon
League (Blue Jays); OF/DH Luke Scott (Orioles); RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers); SS Brandon Wood (Angels); OF Nelson Cruz (Rangers);
RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); RHP Chris Young (Padres)
I literally have no idea what Moore's
going to do. After the display of overt dunderheadedness in the past twelve months, his bizarre building of the Royals has
made them into a total mess whose only saving grace is that they have Zack Greinke and a couple of young pitchers with talent
like Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies and an under-appreciated closer in Joakim Soria. Their offense is a mishmash. Above are a
few suggestions which he'll likely ignore to his own detriment.
The longer it goes, the worse it's gonna be:
What was the point of Mark McGwire taking the job as Cardinals hitting coach if he's going to steadfastly
refuse to meet the press?
What's
the holdup?
And the longer he goes
without standing up and answering any and all questions truthfully, the worse it's going to be for him and the Cardinals.
Did they not realize
that this was going to be an issue when they decided to make the hire? Or did they just make the move to placate manager Tony
La Russa to keep him in the fold and decide to worry about the consequences later?
It's becoming increasingly clear that even when McGwire does stand up
for the press conference, he's going to continue to produce an embarrassingly cringeworthy display of non-answers, avoidance
and awkward facial tics befitting a liar who's uncomfortable with what he's done.
I hate to break it to Mark, but we already know what
he did. If he didn't want to come out of seclusion and 'fess up, then why take the job as hitting coach? More importantly,
why aren't the Cardinals front office people saying enough's enough for a new employee and telling him he's holding a no-holds
barred press conference and answering the questions or they're going to look for another hitting coach? Who's running things
over there?
White Sox sign Andruw Jones:
Jones is a cheap flier and replacement for DeWayne
Wise as a defensively solid center fielder. He's fallen off the planet in his production, but he's cheap ($500,000 base with
a chance for another $500,000 in incentives) and he can still play center. Maybe he'll have a career renaissance. It's worth
a shot.
For some reason, people seem to believe that if you
sign a guy to such a big contract he'll be that good for the duration. Big mistake (insert Carl Pavano, Vernon Wells, Milton
Bradley here). I'd be weary of just about anyone demanding that amount of money for that long, but that's me and I don't have
millions in the bank to throw at... well, anything.
Sometimes
teams don't have a choice like the Mets with Johan Santana.
With Pavano, the Yankees get grief for that nightmare, but if they hadn't paid him the Red Sox,
Mariners or Tigers would've; they just got unlucky. Wells was a pretty good player who got Albert Pujols money. Think about
that.
Halladay is at
an age where he wants to get his money; considering some of the contracts guys like Barry Zito have gotten, I can understand
why he'd say, "gimme mine" and he's in the position to get it now. I tip my hat to him. At least if he's unable
to pitch, you know it's not a Pavano-like reason of wanting to go to the beach instead.
If anyone's earned that ridiculous money, it's Halladay. I think
teams should tread lightly before making that commitment and giving up the chunk of their top tier minor leaguers.
The 2009 Indians screwed up my aesthetic. Totally
unacceptable. Totally.
What they need: A solid, veteran starting pitcher; clear some more
dead salary; bullpen help; a power bat.
Free agents: Jamey Carroll; Tomo Ohka
Carroll is a versatile utility player who'll get more money in a better venue to win than in Cleveland.
He's gone.
Ohka is a journeyman who might
stay as a fallback option for the Indians rotation/bullpen.
Players available via trade:
RHP Fausto Carmona; DH Travis Hafner; 3B/SS Jhonny Peralta; LHP Rafael Perez; C Kelly Shoppach; RHP Jake Westbrook;
RHP Kerry Wood
You want Carmona? He's got $27 million guaranteed coming to him through
2013; he went from being a shell-shocked closer in 2006 to a 19-game winner, a 4th place finisher in the 2007 AL Cy Young
voting, to what he is now----a shell-shocked starter who can't throw strikes and is progressively getting worse. If he weren't
so well-compensated, someone would absolutely take a chance on rehabilitating him to his 2007 form; with that contract, he's
going nowhere aside from to a team like the Mets in an Oliver Perez-type swap.
You
want Hafner? He has over $40 million guaranteed through 2012; he can't play the field; and his body's breaking down. They're
stuck with him and have to hope for some physical rejuvenation to keep him healthy enough for a team to possibly think he'll
be their missing piece as a DH in the next couple of years. Good luck.
Peralta's shift to third
base makes him more attractive to teams hungry for a third baseman or someone willing to stick him back at shortstop or move
him to second base. The Twins or Orioles would be good landing spots. He's durable, has some pop in his bat and his salary
is reasonable ($4.85 million guaranteed through 2010). I think he'll get moved because they can get some pieces back for him.
Perez is arbitration-eligible, was rotten last year and, as a lefty who got torched
to the tune of a .412 batting average by lefties (that's not a misprint); I don't see what value he has aside
from breathing and being lefty. They won't get anything for him and he might be non-tendered.
Shoppach has pop and handles the pitchers well; the Indians have a couple of catching prospects acquired in trades
(Lou Marson) in recent years and they'd do well to keep Shoppach around to tutor them. That said, he's arbitration eligible
and is a tradeable commodity. There are a lot of inexpensive, veteran backstops available, so Shoppach will probably be moved.
Westbrook didn't pitch last season recovering from Tommy John surgery; he's making $11 million next
year. Westbrook will be with the Indians to start the season, but he could be in heavy demand as the season moves along and
bring back a good package if he's healthy and pitching well.
Wood's making $10.5 million
for 2010 with a vesting option of $11.5 million in 2011 if he finishes 55 games. As bad as the Indians will be next year,
suffice it to say that Wood will not, under any circumstances, finish 55 games to activate the contract kicker. He was rotten
in 2009, but if he's pitching well next year, he'll be in the same situation as Westbrook; maybe they'll go in a deal together.
I'd approach him about becoming a starter again.
Non-tender candidates: 3B Andy Marte; LHP Rafael
Perez; RHP Jose Veras
Marte's gone from being a top prospect to a washout. He's 26, has gotten
chance after chance to stake his claim in the big leagues and has failed over and over again.
Perez was discussed earlier. He might not get non-tendered because he's still salvageable and is a lefty.
Veras has a good power fastball, but he's not worth whatever award he wins in arbitration.
Players to pursue:
Via free agency: LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks);
RHP Danys Baez (Orioles); LHP Mark Hendrickson (Orioles); 3B Melvin Mora (Orioles); RHP Rich Harden (Cubs); C Ramon Castro
(White Sox); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); C Yorvit Torrealba (Rockies); 1B/3B/DH Aubrey Huff (Tigers); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins);
RHP LaTroy Hawkins (Astros); C Miguel Olivo (Royals); RHP Kelvim Escobar (Angels); DH Vladimir Guerrero (Angels); C Brad Ausmus
(Dodgers); RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); RHP Vicente Padilla (Dodgers); C Brian Schneider (Mets); DH Hideki Matsui (Yankees);
C Jose Molina (Yankees); Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); LHP Erik
Bedard (Mariners); 3B Troy Glaus (Cardinals); 3B/1B/DH Hank Blalock (Rangers); OF Marlon Byrd (Rangers); C Ivan Rodriguez
(Rangers); C Rod Barajas (Blue Jays); RHP Ben Sheets
The Indians aren't delving into the big name free
agent market, but there are already bargains to be had to fill their holes with more to come after the players who are simply
let go by their respective teams start to flood the market.
There are many catchers who would be amenable to playing part-time and mentoring the young Indians
catchers. Molina, Schneider, Barajas and Torrealba would be perfect for such purposes.
Starting pitchers like Harden, Sheets and Bedard are going to have to take short-term/incentive-laden
deals and could fall to the Indians as the off-season shakes itself out.
Guerrero and Matsui could be productive and relatively inexpensive solutions for
the Indians power vacuum.
GM Mark Shapiro
has been historically successful with such mutually advantageous deals with the likes of Juan Gonzalez, Kevin Millwood and,
to a lesser degree, Carl Pavano.
Via trade: OF/DH Luke Scott (Orioles); 2B Alexei
Casilla (Twins); RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers); SS Brandon Wood (Angels); DH Jack Cust (Athletics); OF Cody Ross (Marlins)
With the Indians contract situations for the likes of Hafner and Carmona, they're not getting anything
back for them if they find someone stupid enough to take them. Nor does it make sense to deal Kerry Wood or Westbrook before
trying to re-establish their value.
Jackson's on the block for the Tigers and would fill out the Indians rotation nicely. Brandon Wood's stock has fallen drastically
with the Angels. Cust is what he is; at least you'll know what you're getting----high on base percentage, power and a load
of strikeouts.
Albert Pujols wins the
NL MVP unanimously:
Yah.
No kidding.
Red Sox should think long and hard before giving up the house for Halladay:
One of the problems for a team with the recent success
of the Red Sox is that they can't step back from acquiring glossy names even if it's not the best thing for the club. As accustomed
to pain as the Red Sox and their fans became in their championship drought from 1918 to 2004, they've now become spoiled and
greedy by their annual success.
Look at what the lost year of 2006 led them to do. After being the dominant team in baseball throughout the first half, the
team collapsed completely over the second half of the season and responded by flinging money at each and every one of their
problems with the long-term signings of J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo. While the aggressive maneuvers they made in the winter of
2006-2007 resulted in another World Series win in 2007, the club is now somewhat hamstrung by the massive contracts for veterans
they're still on the hook for like Mike Lowell, David Ortiz and Drew.
They have a lot of money and revenue, but not on a level with the Yankees; now they're being forced
to make drastic deals with the devil of their prospects to try and win right now. The trades for Eric Gagne and Victor Martinez
have thinned out the cupboard of top minor leaguers; now they're said to be heavily pursuing Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay. The
Red Sox still have enough (easily) to get Halladay, but what's the risk/reward?
As I've said before, Halladay is going to be 33, has a lot of wear on his tires
and will cost a load of prospects and money. Josh Beckett's money is coming off the books next year and with each passing
day that they don't reach an agreement on an extension (truth be told, the Red Sox don't appear all that anxious to get something
done) is a day closer to Beckett's departure. Halladay is going to cost at least $140 million for an extension and the Red
Sox would have to sign him.
Is it worth it?
Or would the Red
Sox be better off sifting through the next level of free agents and non-tenders while beefing up their offense with the likes
of Matt Holliday?
Getting Halladay would
be a short-term boost to the Red Sox and their fans; and he'd be a Cy Young Award contender next year; but after that, you're
talking about $20 million-a-year for a pitcher entering his mid-to-late 30s who's thrown a lot
of innings. If it results in another title next year, it's worth it in the short-term, but long-term? Maybe not.
Viewer Mail 11.25.2009:
Jeff at Red State Blue State writes RE taking short-term command in mid-December:
Ready. Willing. Able.
Being in charge ain't all it's cracked up to be. Trust
me. You'll be begging me to take the keys back. Every decision; every move has to be calculated with all conceivable results.
It's all on you. It's a burden. My burden. And it cuts a wide swath through everything you do. Some good, some bad. You'll
see.
The White Sox are set for another title run (contingent
on health concerns).
What they need: A power outfield bat; a power DH bat; a backup catcher;
a decision on their closer.
Free agents: C Ramon Castro; RHP Octavio Dotel; OF Jermaine Dye; OF
Scott Podsednik
Castro should get a job somewhere as a #1 or 1A catcher, so he won't be
back.
Dotel is an in-demand journeyman
who will get a better offer elsewhere to what the White Sox would offer. He's gone.
Dye and the White Sox have already agreed to part ways. He'll likely wait out
the Jason Bay/Matt Holliday/Miguel Cabrera situations and sign with whichever team loses out on their initial targets and
settles for a still solid player and always solid man in Dye.
Podsednik only seems to play well for the White Sox; when he left the last time, he fell flat on his
face. I'd expect him to stay.
Players available via trade: 1B Paul Konerko; RHP
Bobby Jenks; who knows?
Konerko was rumored to be part of a three-way trade that would've sent
Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres to the White Sox; Konerko to the Angels; and a package of prospects to the Padres. I think
Konerko's going to be moved. The Mets and Giants could both use him as fallback options for first base.
I'd tread carefully with Jenks if I were White Sox GM Kenny Williams.
Yes, he had a rotten year; yes, he's arbitration-eligible and due a big raise from his $5.6 million
salary in 2009; yes, there are a lot of closers available in a saturated market; and from in-house, Matt Thornton could handle
the job very well in replacing Jenks. But Jenks has one thing going for him that can't be said for most, if not all the closers
they'd be using in his place----he's gotten the big outs in the post-season.
This is not something to dismiss based on numbers, salary and whatever. Unless Williams plans
to make a move on Jonathan Papelbon (and don't discount that possibility), would the White Sox be comfortable with the Billy
Wagners, Jose Valverdes and whoevers of the world in a similar situation?
I know I wouldn't.
I literally don't put anything past Kenny
Williams. Who else would've thought Carlos Quentin would stay healthy two years ago when he was acquired from the Diamondbacks?
That Gavin Floyd had the ace-quality stuff to be a 17-game winner? That anyone would've had the balls to claim Alex Rios and
his contract from the Blue Jays? Or to aggressively pursue and nab Jake Peavy from the Padres?
I could go on and on.
Williams is one of the best GMs in baseball because he's smart, unpredictable and a keen judge of talent.
He could do anything at anytime. Don't be stunned if he pulls something befitting an evil genius from a James Bond film in
the coming weeks.
Non-tender candidates: RHP Tony Pena
Pena's the only guy I can see that could be non-tendered based on his arbitration-eligibility, but he's got
a great arm, won't win a big award and is lightning in a bottle. He's not going anywhere.
Players
to pursue:
Via free agency: LHP Mike Gonzalez (Braves); OF Garret Anderson (Braves);
1B Adam LaRoche (Braves); OF Jason Bay (Red Sox); LHP Billy Wagner (Red Sox); RHP Rafael Betancourt (Rockies); DH/1B Aubrey
Huff (Tigers); RHP Kiko Calero (Marlins); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); RHP Jose Valverde (Astros); INF/OF Chone Figgins (Angels);
DH Vladimir Guerrero (Angels); C Brad Ausmus (Dodgers); DH Jim Thome (Dodgers); RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); CF Mike Cameron
(Brewers); RHP Braden Looper (Brewers); C Mike Redmond (Twins); 1B/DH Carlos Delgado (Mets); DH Gary Sheffield (Mets); OF
Johnny Damon (Yankees); DH Hideki Matsui (Yankees); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); OF Randy Winn (Giants); INF/OF Mark DeRosa
(Cardinals); C Gregg Zaun (Rays); 3B/1B/DH Hank Blalock (Rangers)
There are the larger
and in-demand names for bullpen help (Gonzalez) and the bats (Bay; Damon; Matsui); but given Williams's history and belief
in veterans who've once know greatness or near-greatness (his infatuation and eventual acquisition of Ken Griffey Jr exemplifies
this), he might want to bring in the fading vets such as Vladimir Guerrero and Carlos Delgado to try to squeeze the very last
bit of talent from them in the twilight of their careers.
It's possible that former White Sox like Garland and Thome might want to return. He'll find a back-up
catcher from the rabble; and sift through the free agent casualties and non-tenders to get back-of-the-rotation help with
the likes of Looper.
Via trade: RHP Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox); LF Carl Crawford (Rays);
RHP Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); OF/DH Luke Scott (Orioles); 1B/3B/DH Miguel Cabrera (Tigers); 1B Kendry Morales (Angels); OF
Nelson Cruz (Rangers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); DH Jack Cust (Athletics); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); RHP Josh Johnson (Marlins);
2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); RHP Francisco Cordero (Reds); RHP Bronson Arroyo (Reds); 1B Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)
Only giant names need apply for the most part.
If Williams is going to continue to do what it is Williams does and act aggressively before the fact,
there's no reason to believe that he wouldn't make an aggressive move on Papelbon if the Red Sox toss his name out there.
I think the Rays will make a perfunctory
effort to keep Crawford by offering him an extension. Said offer will be nowhere close to what it's going to take to keep
a five-tool star in his prime who's going to be in such heavy demand and they'll put him on the market.
Halladay has as good a chance of winding up with the
White Sox as he has of winding up anywhere.
Uggla would fill the bill as a power DH/first baseman. Young pitchers like Morrow and Johnson are very much negotiable
commodities; and Gonzalez has been pursued by the White Sox as mentioned earlier.
Suffice it to say that Williams is going to go after what he wants. And he just
might get it. Whatever "it" is. While not making sense on paper, questioning the judgment of Kenny Williams has
never been wise.
Um, Miguel Cabrera
for AL MVP?
Had
the writer covering the Mariners (Keizo Konishi of The Kyodo News) voted for Derek Jeter or Mark Teixeira first in the AL
MVP balloting, it still would've been wrong, but it would've been more understandable than voting for Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera
put up great numbers, but he was nowhere close to winner Joe Mauer.
I had Cabrera fifth behind Mauer, Jeter, Teixeira and Jason Bay. That pick was a farce; as if Konishi
just filled his ballot like it was a rushed, last minute lottery ticket.
Some would say being a Twin for life is sorta like being locked up. But you're right in that they have about as good
a chance to win as anyone else... and they play the game the right way all around. I'm curious to see them play outside in
Minnesota in April and September though. That'll be fun.
I honestly can't picture
Mauer in a different uniform than that of the Twins. He grew up there and was a football star as well as a baseball star,
so the cold weather won't affect him. He won't leave and they won't trade him. Plus don't discount that his agent. Ron Shapiro
isn't and never was a Scott Boras "gimme all the money" type. His first question to his players is "where do
you want to play?" Mauer wants to be in Minnesota and that's where he'll be.
Jeff, prepare to take the reins for a few weeks in or about mid-December.
More information will be forthcoming. You'll be my voice. And my fist. I'll be counting on you.
Issac
writes RE Joe Mauer:
I doubt Mauer would have as good a chance to win in
Minnesota as he would have in a team like the Red Sox. I think he's likely to stay because of the reasons you mention, but
if the Twins give him his money, they will have less flexibility than they have now, and they don't have a lot right now.
I think he'll have a good chance at a WS, but he would have a better chance on a team that goes to the playoffs every year.
I don't agree with the idea of a lesser opportunity to win with the Twins. Five playoff appearances
in eight years is no joke. The Twins have a template they follow and are always finding production from their bats and young
pitching. They've gotten beat in the playoffs over-and-over again, but they've shown that no matter what, they're there at
the end and spend when necessary to try and win. He'll stay and the club will be competitive even if they don't win a title.
All a player can ask for is a reasonable commitment to win and Mauer
gets that and everything else with his hometown club.
What
they need: A closer; a new middle infield; starting pitching; to clear some salary and replenish the farm system.
Free agents: SS Adam Everett; 1B/3B/OF Aubrey Huff; RHP Brandon Lyon; 2B Placido Polanco; RHP Fernando
Rodney; LHP Jarrod Washburn
Everett and Huff won't be back.
Washburn has many options in better situations, probably for much more money
than the Tigers are going to be willing to pay, the Yankees, Mariners and Twins are known to have interest in Washburn even
as he pitched horribly for the Tigers after joining them at mid-season. He won't be back.
Polanco is 34 and while the Tigers would love to keep him, it makes no
sense to pay a load of money to do so if they're clearing salary. With other teams----the Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets----possibly
having interest in the good hitting and fielding Polanco, he's gone.
Rodney will be a low-cost pickup for a closer/set-up man hungry team and won't be back.
Lyon could stay depending on the market and where
the other available relievers wind up. The market is saturated with closers or former closers; Lyon could be one of those
pitchers who's out of work deep into the off season.
Players available via trade: RHP Jeremy Bonderman;
1B/3B/OF Miguel Cabrera; CF Curtis Granderson; OF/1B/DH Carlos Guillen; INF/OF/C Brandon Inge; RHP Edwin Jackson; OF Magglio
Ordonez; LHP Nate Robertson; LHP Dontrelle Willis; RHP Joel Zumaya
My God.
For everyone who relentlessly rips the Mets, the more
I look at the circumstances of some of these teams as I make my way around the league with my Hot Stove Previews, I feel better
and better about the circumstances of my chosen club.
For the Tigers, as I list the players, I'll add their salaries because it's more horrifying than any
tale Edgar Allen Poe could've conjured at his highest, drunkest and most creatively free.
Jeremy Bonderman ($12.5 million for 2010) has pitched in 20 games over the past two seasons and been predominately terrible.
He got paid based on his 14-8 2006 season, was barely mediocre in 2007 and then got hurt. If he's healthy, he's good. Is he
healthy? I dunno, but he is overpaid.
Miguel
Cabrera ($126 million through 2015) is one of the best hitters in baseball and could be moved based on his talent; salary;
that he's the Tigers most marketable player and best bet to rejuvenate a barren farm system to any degree; and that the club
(especially owner Mike Illich) were angrier than anyone truly let on for his alcohol-fueled drunken dispute with his wife
over the last weekend of the season which resulted in his arrest.
The list of teams who'd want Cabrera is long. The Giants, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Cardinals and many
others would love to get their hands on Cabrera. I think he gets traded.
Curtis Granderson (almost
$26 million guaranteed through 2012) is probably the most all-around marketable player the Tigers have to deal, so he'd get
the most back. A 28-year-old center fielder who can run and hit for power is hard to find. If the Tigers are serious about
rebuilding, Granderson will be moved.
Carlos Guillen ($26 million through 2011) is 34; he
can't play the field anywhere other than first base; doesn't hit enough to be a DH; and has become injury prone. He's not
going anywhere.
Brandon Inge ($6.6 million for 2010) is also marketable because he's versatile,
plays good defense pretty much anywhere you put him and you know what you're getting from him offensively----some pop and
lots of strikeouts. I think he'll be traded.
Edwin Jackson is on the block because he's arbitration-eligible;
slumped in the second half of the season after looking like Dave Stewart for much of the season; and would bring value back.
Depending on how the Tigers do dumping other contracts, Jackson might stay.
Magglio
Ordonez ($18 million guaranteed) was a point of debate for almost the whole season because his contract kicker activated when
he reached 540 plate appearances in 2009 and the Tigers were faced with the prospect of: A) a union grievance if they benched
him; B) using him when they needed him to stay in contention and he was playing better over the second half after a woeful
start; or C) releasing him to save the salary for 2010.
There was no "right" answer to the problems. I don't know what I would've done myself----I
probably would've bit the bullet and released him----but the Tigers were contending and a championship would've been worth
the Ordonez money if they'd turned the trick.
Dontrelle Willis ($12 million for 2010) could be moved
for a team that thinks they could straighten out the charismatic, talented and mentally fried Willis. The Tigers would have
to take a bad contract back for him, but he could be moved. If I were the Mets, I'd call the Tigers and say, "Oliver
Perez for Willis and Robertson, right now. Take it or leave it."
A return to the NL could only help Willis since he couldn't be much worse or more of a sunk cost than
he is now for the Tigers. He's on the verge of becoming an outfielder if he can't learn to throw strikes again.
Zumaya's arbitration-eligible and it seems so long ago that his lightning fastball lit up radar guns
and overmatched the likes of Alex Rodriguez in the 2006 playoffs. He's had nothing but injury problems since then. He's only
25, so could be added to any deal of the likes of Cabrera to sweeten it and get more back. I'd take a chance on Zumaya.
Non-tender candidates: RHP Zach Miner; SS Ramon Santiago; RHP Joel Zumaya
Miner's a mediocre reliever you can find relatively easily. They'll walk away from any risk of a substantial arbitration
award.
Santiago's a 30-year-old
journeyman. They're not paying him either.
Zumaya's an interesting case. There are viable reasons for the team to cut their losses with him as he heads for arbitration.
They won't, but you couldn't argue with them if they did.
Players to pursue:
Via
free agency: OF Garret Anderson (Braves); RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); RHP Kevin Gregg
(Cubs); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); RHP Jose Valverde (Astros); 2B Ronnie Belliard (Dodgers); 2B Orlando Hudson (Dodgers);
CF Mike Cameron (Brewers); 2B Felipe Lopez (Brewers); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); OF Coco Crisp (Royals);
LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners)
Many of these players are contingent on the Tigers cleaning house and
needing warm, serviceable, available bodies to fill holes if they manage to somehow dump some big salaries. Most would fall
to the Tigers based on the market. Bedard, Putz, Marquis, Davis all will have suitors, but could be left out in the cold scrounging
for work, which could lead them to Detroit.
The days of the Tigers delving deeply into free agency/trades for big names are over.
Via
trade: 2B Alexei Casilla (Twins); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); SS Brandon Wood (Angels); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins);
3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); RHP Matt Lindstrom (Marlins); Colby Rasmus (Cardinals); Angel Guzman
(Cubs); Josh Vitters (Cubs)
Considering the Tigers situation, they're going to have trouble getting
much of anything for their big contracts if someone, anyone agrees to take a couple of them off their hands.
The Twins are annoyed with Casilla and he could
play second base for the Tigers and replace Polanco. Morrow needs a change of scenery and there was talk of a deal surrounding
Jackson to the Mariners for Morrow----they've supposedly broken down, but could be revisited. I think Morrow will one day
be a star if he gets out of Seattle.
Wood's stock has fallen with the Angels after demolishing Triple A in each of the past three years. Is he a Triple A star/big
league washout? Or does he need a legitimate chance to play every single day in the big leagues to get his bearings? Who knows?
Uggla, Cantu, Ross and Linstrom
could be had, but the Tigers don't have much youth to deal after the series of short-sighted and borderline crazy moves (Jair
Jurrjens for Edgar Renteria?) that GM Dave Dombrowski has made in recent years. Doesn't hurt to ask.
Whoever's interested in Granderson will have to give up some young talent
along the lines of Rasmus. The Cubs probably wouldn't trade Vitters in such a deal.
The
Prince vs PECOTA:
I mentioned
yesterday how Nate Silver received endless credit/accolades/borderline lust for his picking of the Rays to vastly improve
in 2008 and being right and that I've received little-to-no acknowledgement for having been right about the Marlins and Giants
this year.
He has his calculations;
I have what passes for my brain. Take a look at our respective predictions for the 2009 season and see who was more accurate.
I will take your money, your worship
or your women...or a combination of all three. And you ain't getting them back.
Mauer's going nowhere:
There's an article in the NY Times today about Joe Mauer's pending MVP award and his prospects for staying in Minnesota. There's a suggested question as to whether
the Twins will be able to keep him and if Mauer will look for richer pastures and a "better" chance to win a championship.
It's nonsense.
Mauer isn't a money-whore; the Twins will pay to keep him in his hometown;
and he's got as good a chance to win in Minnesota as he does anywhere else.
I can't see Joe Mauer going mercenary and looking for every single penny he can squeeze out of the
game on the open market to leave his home. That's not to say he doesn't want to get paid; he's going to get his money. The
Twins are smart enough to realize that they have to keep one of the best three players in baseball in their fold;
they won't pay him ARod money; they probably won't even pay him Mark Teixeira money; but at that point for the player, what's
the difference?
How many more cars,
homes, villas, boats, whatevers can he buy with $180 million that he couldn't buy with $150 million? And he doesn't seem to
be an egomaniac that has to be validated by his paycheck. Everyone knows how great Mauer is already; and they'll
know to an even larger degree when he officially gets the MVP later today.
As for the on-field product, the Twins have been in the playoffs five times in the past eight years.
A break here, a break there; avoiding the Yankees, etc and they could easily have made it to a couple of World Series and
won one of them. Can Mauer guarantee that he's going to have that opportunity anywhere else and have the dual benefit of playing
at home? He's got as good a chance to win in Minnesota.
He'll get locked up and be a Twin for life. Guaranteed.
With Jason Bay looking to cash in and numerous
reports of him having rejected the Red Sox offer of 4-years and close to $60 million, you'd have to believe that the club
isn't going to sit around and wait for Bay to sift through the offers before getting back to them; this turns the focus on
Matt Holliday.
Which would be a better
signing for the Red Sox?
Bay, who's
31 (a year-and-a-half older than Holliday); has handled Boston performing in an exemplary fashion on and off the field; and
puts up the same numbers year-after-year? Or Holliday, who struggled adapting to the American League in his half-season with
the Athletics and is represented by Scott Boras?
Naysayers on Holliday say that he was exposed when he left the friendly confines of Coors Field, but I think he was hurt more
by number of obstacles in front of him in 2009. The change in ballparks; his impending free agency; playing for a bad team;
and the new league were greater factors than any "exposure" of flaws. Despite his meltdown offensively and defensively
in the NLDS after being sent to the Cardinals, Holliday is still going to get paid. His hot run after joining the Cardinals
replenished his image.
To me, Bay
is the better all-around player but his contractual demands are likely to be more reasonable than those of Holliday and Boras.
The issue the Red Sox have to grapple with is what they're willing to do to fill their hole for a big bat and whether they're
willing to wait for Bay.
The ancillary
factors of both players----average defense being first and foremost on the list along with financial demands----aren't as
important as one would believe they are in a home park like Fenway. The park itself should allow Holliday to come close (not
replicate, but come close) to putting up similar numbers as he did in Colorado. He's more of a straightaway hitter than anything
else, but he'd find a security blanket in the Green Monster. With the way the Red Sox get on base and hitting behind J.D.
Drew and Kevin Youkilis, Holliday would drive in 130 runs.
Defensively, I don't believe there's an accurate way to quantify how well or poorly even the weaker and slower defenders
would handle Fenway Park. There's such a short amount of ground to cover for a left fielder there that what's more important
than range is how said outfielder learns to deal with the quirks and caroms off the wall and in the corners. Even Manny Ramirez
could play solid defense out there when was sufficiently spurred on by whatever it is that motivates Manny on a given day.
Carl Yastrzemski played the wall better than anyone; Jim Rice handled the wall; Holliday would deal with it. Work ethic wouldn't
be a factor with him; he's always played as if his life depended on each and every play. He'd learn the nuances of the Wall.
Bay could be counted on
in a similar fashion, but if Bay is intent on testing the free agent waters, the Red Sox might be better served to make the
splash, go after Holliday aggressively and get him in quick strike fashion. This type of maneuver wouldn't preclude them from
improving the offense further by going after Adrian Gonzalez as well. That would transform their lineup immediately back into
a force.
I have a hunch Holliday's
going to end up with the Red Sox sooner rather than later; that they learned their lesson from the dealings with Boras and
Mark Teixeira last year; and watching the Yankees celebrate a World Series will have the same affect that the lost year of
2006 did as they dove into free agency like they were leaping from a burning building. It's the right move.
A customary lull for the Marlins:
Although the credit for my picking the Marlins to
win 90 games this year and seeing them win 87 was on a level with Nate Silver's much ballyhooed pick of the Rays making a
vast leap into contention 2008, credit and acknowledgment for me has been either reluctant or non-existent for everyone other
than my loyal followers; the truth now is that with the way the Marlins are shopping many of their name players, the inevitable
lull in on-field success is coming for the best-run team in baseball.
Aside from Hanley Ramirez, it doesn't appear as if anyone on the Marlins roster is off-limits. And
I guarantee, if a massive enough package (and it would have to be MASSIVE) came back for Ramirez, he'd be in the discussion
as well. Dan Uggla will be traded, as will Jorge Cantu. Nick Johnson won't be back and Cody Ross could be moved too. Josh
Johnson was in discussions for a contract extension to preclude his approaching arbitration and free agency after 2011; but
it doesn't look like it's going to happen now, which will make Johnson available.
How many teams would be after Johnson? One of the best pitchers in baseball?
It'd be easier to list the teams that wouldn't be interested in Johnson. The argument could be made that the acquisition
of Johnson would be more worthwhile than teams going after Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. Johnson will be 26 early next
year; Halladay will be 33. Johnson already went through Tommy John surgery and has far less wear on his tires than Halladay.
And as great and durable as Halladay has been, his workload has been heavy since 2002 and he missed substantial time in 2004-2005
with injuries. Plus whoever acquires Halladay has to worry about signing him after next year. They'd get a big year from him
in 2010, but after that? Johnson might be a better investment.
Johnson's price tag would be steep; we're talking at least two blue-chip players along the lines of
Ramirez/Cameron Maybin/Andrew Miller and a probably more; the Marlins always know what prospects to target.
The 2010 Marlins won't be contenders if they clear out the house. With
their young pitching, they'll be competitive, but it will be a year or two before they repeat the process that had them contending
under a minimalist payroll in 2008-2009; they'll be back, but it's a cycle; and next year will be a downturn for them.
What was the point again?
I have no idea whether the Yankees are going to make
a big play for John Lackey. My instincts say no. But if they again spend big money for a starting pitcher, you have to wonder
what happened to the idea of developing their own pitchers instead of lavishing fortunes on outsiders. It's amazing how quickly
a plan is abandoned.
The Yankees
young arms Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy----advertised as the John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine of the
new generation----didn't live up to the hype (putting it mildly). Now the expectations have been tamped down by reality of
how hard it is to develop and contend simultaneously. There's still hope for Hughes as a starter, in fact, I think he's going
to be quite good; Chamberlain should be in the bullpen; and Kennedy? I was never particularly impressed.
To sign another big name mercenary like Lackey would be tossing the
whole plot into the trash. There are plenty of cheaper alternatives the Yankees could import who would gobble innings and
function as a fourth starter (Jon Garland, a healthy Randy Wolf) rather than sign Lackey for the same money it cost to get
A.J. Burnett.
Wouldn't Lackey be
a reversion to what it was that GM Brian Cashman specifically wanted to get away from after all those championshipless (Paul's
word) years? I say yes.
Why would the Twins want Pedro Martinez? He should stay
in the NL where it's a lot more comfy.
I think Pedro's just looking for work at this point,
so any and every team (including the dregs like the Nats and Padres) would be interested in bringing him in. Why not the Twins?
I'm not saying it's a good idea for either side, but not insane either. They're a good young team that could use his wisdom
if he can still drag himself out to the mound.
Yeah, I am biased, but I still really believe Wainwright
was better than Lincecum this year. He was a horse. Great numbers AND win totals. If he wins that last game to get to 20 wins
on the season we aren't having this conversation. The writers are in love with Timmeh and that's fine... but dissin' Waino
(and Carp to some extent) like that is still pretty shocking.
The consensus is that
the missed 20th was the deciding factor in many voters looking at other aspects in casting their vote. I still would've gone
Lincecum, I think.
TIMMEH!!!!!
Joe at Statistician Magician writes:
Keith
Law is a god amongst mere mortals.
So Joe, you disappear for four months into some bizarre
state of suspended animation; ignoring uncharacteristic wonderment on my part (I wouldn't say concern----I know nothing of
such things) of your whereabouts via email; and you only resurface when I mention Keith Law?
You're going to have to go a bit further than this to re-enter the
good graces of my Family. Jeff already wants to bring down the hammer. I'm vacillating. You have until the end of January
to redeem yourself. Use the window wisely.
What should concern the rest of the American
League Central is how young the Twins are on the whole.
What they need: A second baseman; a third baseman;
bullpen help; a veteran starting pitcher.
Free agents: SS Orlando Cabrera; 3B Joe Crede;
LHP Ron Mahay; RHP Carl Pavano; C Mike Redmond
Cabrera is going to be in a better position than he
was last year following his stellar play for the Twins after being acquired from the Athletics. It would behoove him to hold
his fire before joining a club (within reason; if someone offers him a solid contract----2 years----he should take it) and
wait out what happens with the shortstop hungry teams like the Red Sox and Blue Jays. The Twins were said to be hoping for
Cabrera to consider a move to second base as they've acquired J.J. Hardy from the Brewers to play shortstop. He's likely to
have options at shortstop elsewhere, so I see him shifting as unlikely.
Crede's
back problems will make it hard for him to even find a job on a big league contract.
Mahay will be in demand as lefty out of the bullpen; he's becoming more
of a lefty specialist now at 38, but he can hang on for years doing that if he wants. He might be back with the Twins.
Pavano should get a decent deal somewhere even
if it's only a 1-year contract; he probably won't be back.
Redmond has a great job backing up one of the best players in baseball, Joe Mauer; he's popular
in the clubhouse, is a good backup even at age 38; he will be back.
Players available via trade:
2B Alexei Casilla; LHP Francisco Liriano; OF Delmon Young; RHP Joe Nathan; RHP Jon Rauch
Casilla's stock has fallen drastically after his excellent 2008 season; he was so bad in 2009 that he wound up back
in the minors after barely breaking a .200 batting average; that the Twins are trying to convince Cabrera to accept a shift
to second base is a bad sign for Casilla's future in Minnesota.
Liriano was atrocious last year and has shown little sign of regaining the dominating form he showed
in 2006. He missed all of 2007 after Tommy John surgery. Maybe they should try him as a closer if they trade Joe Nathan.
Young was on the outs with the Twins before Justin
Morneau's injury forced Michael Cuddyer to first base and Young back into the regular lineup. He played well, especially during
the Twins' hot streak that catapulted them to the playoffs. Young still has great potential and is only 24. His temper and
inconsistency has him available.*
*Sounds like me.
Plus Young's arbitration-eligible.
Joe Nathan melted down in the playoffs, but he might've
been a topic for discussion in trade talks anyway. I doubt he'll be moved, but there's a chance of it happening with a team
like the Braves who have a surplus of starting pitching and could use a closer. Derek Lowe for Nathan wouldn't be a ridiculous
idea.
Rauch is making nearly $3 million
next year. His contract puts him in play.
Non-tender candidates: RHP Boof Bonser; INF Brendan
Harris; LHP Francisco Liriano; RHP Pat Neshek
Bonser's coming off season-ending surgery for a torn
labrum and will be non-tendered. Harris and Liriano are highly unlikely to be dumped, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
Neshek had Tommy John surgery, missed most of 2008 and all of 2009; he could be non-tendered and brought back by the Twins
at a lower salary.
Players to pursue:
Via free agency: RHP
Rafael Soriano (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); LHP Billy Wagner (Red Sox); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); 2B Placido
Polanco (Tigers); RHP Kevin Gregg (Cubs); LHP Jarrod Washburn (Tigers); SS Miguel Tejada (Astros); 2B Ronnie Belliard (Dodgers);
2B Orlando Hudson (Dodgers); LHP Randy Wolf (Dodgers); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies); RHP Chan Ho Park
(Phillies); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); 3B Troy Glaus (Cardinals); LaTroy Hawkins (Astros)
The closers mentioned are contingent on what the Twins do with Nathan. If they trade him, they're not going to trust
Rauch as their closer when there are so many reasonably priced stopgaps/reclamation projects that could be had on a mutually
beneficial short-term basis.
For a new second baseman, Polanco can hit and
play the position well defensively. Belliard and Hudson are both free agents and would fill the position on a short-term contract
capably while the Twins decide what they're going to do with Casilla.
Marquis
and Davis are veterans for the back of the starting rotation; Bedard is a shot-in-the-dark; Washburn is a from Minnesota and
has long been linked with the Twins.
Park wants to go back to being
a starter, but it's impossible to imagine a team that's going to want him as anything other than a reliever.
Glaus is returning from injury and, like Crede last year, would be available for low cost/high reward.
Tejada would have to move to third base if he joined the Twins, but he could fall to them as the winter moves along.
Via trade: RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers); 3B Jhonny Peralta (Indians); 2B Josh Barfield (Indians);
RHP Michael Wuertz (Athletics); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); INF Jorge Cantu (Marlins); RHP Matt Lindstrom (Marlins); RHP Derek
Lowe (Braves); RHP Javier Vazquez (Braves); RHP Francisco Cordero (Reds); RHP Roy Oswalt (Astros); 2B Akinori Iwamura (Pirates);
3B Garrett Atkins (Rockies); 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (Padres); RHP Chris Young (Padres)
Jackson's on the block and while the Tigers won't want to trade him within the division, if they're doing a moderate
rebuild, then what's the difference?
The Braves are shopping some of their starting pitching surplus and would much prefer to trade Lowe than Vazquez, but if the
Twins do decide to trade Nathan, the Braves need a closer; and Lowe pitched horribly over the second half of the season, but
the contracts aren't so out of line to make it absurd. Nathan has $24.5 million coming to him through 2011; Lowe $45 million
through 2012. It's not crazy.
Young could
be a star if he stays healthy and increases his durability.
If the Astros are slashing salary, why not ask about Oswalt?
The Reds are shopping Cordero and he could replace Nathan. He's making a lot of money----$25 million guaranteed through 2011.
Uggla's generating a lot of interest and the Marlins are going to trade him; he'd put up his power
numbers for the Twins. Cantu can play third and is very available. I'd ask about Lindstrom as well. If the Indians continue
dumping salary, Peralta's shift to third base last season makes him attractive. Barfield's stock has fallen, but he was a
solid rookie and is worth a shot at second base as a low-cost alternative.
Atkins is openly being
shopped by the Rockies; Kouzmanoff is arbitration-eligible and I'm sure the Padres would move him and shift Chase Headly back
to third base if they get the chance.
Strange bedfellows:
Keith Law is under attack for his evident "audacity" in not
selecting Chris Carpenter on his NL Cy Young Award ballot.
It's ridiculous.
As most people who read me regularly surely know, I'm no fan of Law's; I think he's a regurgitates scouting terminology
and combines it with stat zombieness----the epitome of the armchair expert; but he does make sense once in awhile----more
so than many of the true zealot brand of stat zombie. And the truth about his selection of Javier Vazquez ahead of Carpenter
in the voting is missing the fact that Vazquez had an excellent year deserving of recognition.
Carpenter's omission didn't cost him the award; the right guy----Tim
Lincecum----won; so what's the problem?
Was this in any way worse than the voting incident I mentioned yesterday with George King leaving Pedro Martinez off
of his MVP ballot entirely in 2000 based on nothing but partisan politics and embarrassing stupidity? No chance. At least
Law had viable reasons for making his decision.
Then the vultures come out.
Buck
Martinez said of Law yesterday: "I worked with Keith Law in Toronto
and he doesn't have a grip on anything."
Fair enough. But what about Martinez and his bonafides?
I've long respected Martinez if, for nothing else, than that he's one tough bastard.
Any catcher who records a double play on two home plate collisions----the second out being recorded on a broken leg and dislocated
ankle----deserves more than props; he deserves a "we're not worthy" reaction of supplication for being hard as nails.
That said. Martinez was another broadcaster who decided
he'd managed from the booth long enough and went down on the field to take over as Toronto Blue Jays manager in 2001 and 2002,
logged a 100-115 record and was fired. Having never managed at any level and taking over a club after being a broadcaster
shows a remarkable amount of arrogance and it rarely works. The snap decisions, critiques and second-guesses aren't so cut
and dried when it's a rapid-fire series of moves that need to be made and one has to think ten steps ahead.
The most egregious part of the vitriol directed at
Law is that the man happened to have a reason for doing what he did----a legit reason. And ripping him now is just opportunistic
piling on with an agenda and minds just as obtuse as the hardcore stat zombies. The extremities of the either side is just
as bad as the other.
Considering the division they're in it'll be
hard to tell, but the Orioles are getting better.
What they need: A third baseman; a respected, veteran
starting pitcher; a serviceable closer; bullpen help; a power bat for DH/1B/OF.
Free agents:
RHP Danys Baez; 3B Mevlin Mora; LHP Mark Hendrickson; C Chad Moeller
Baez will get a decent
offer somewhere, probably with a pretty good club to pitch out of their bullpen; possibly the Mets; Omar Minaya's always liked
Baez.
Mora has been a loyal Oriole through
the long years of endless losing but the marriage is ending bitterly and Mora needs a change-of-scenery. It makes sense for
the participants to part ways; Mora would like a better chance to win; the Orioles need more pop from the position from a
younger player.
They'd like to keep Hendrickson
because he's an experienced professional who can start or relieve; there's a good chance of that happening.
Moeller will get a job somewhere as a defensive specialist/backup catcher
who can handle pitchers. He won't be back.
Players available via trade: OF/DH Luke Scott;
1B/3B/DH Ty Wigginton; OF Felix Pie; LHP Rich Hill
Scott is a lefty bat with pop and he's a good guy
in the clubhouse, but he's arbitration eligible and is due a big raise. GM Andy MacPhail could probably get a piece or two
for him in a trade.
Wigginton was a disappointment
after signing a 2-year contract as a free agent. His salary's not ridiculous ($3.5 million), but it's hard to see anyone taking
it off their hands. 11 homers in 446 plate appearances----in Camden Yards no less----isn't going to cut it; but they're stuck
with Wigginton unless they take someone else's bad contract. It's a possibility.
Pie was a disappointment with the Cubs; he was a disappointment with the Orioles.
He'll be 25 early next year and it's time to either deliver on all his promise or accept what he is. Someone would take Pie
to try and get him to mature as a player.
Hill's getting non-tendered, so no one's going to trade for him unless they think they can unlock his talent. He's
shown signs of losing any and all command of the strike zone, so he's a project if someone wants to take a chance; he won't
be figuring it out in Baltimore.
Non-tender candidates: LHP Rich Hill; RHP Cla Meredith;
RHP Chris Ray
Hill and Meredith are gone; Ray's probably gone too, but he's a guy I'd
consider keeping. He's had injury problems (Tommy John surgery), but he had a great arm and talent before then and was closing
somewhat effectively. He got shelled last year, so he's likely to get non-tendered and signed by a team like the Marlins who
find bargains and rehabilitate them.
Players to pursue:
Free
agents: RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); LHP Billy Wagner (Red Sox); RHP Kevin Gregg (Cubs);
RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); RHP Brandon Lyon (Tigers); RHP Fernando Rodney (Tigers); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); RHP J.J.
Putz (Mets); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies)
Again there are the lower
tier closers or those rehabbing from injuries and trying to replenish their images and/or careers. It's hard to see the Orioles
getting the relievers who will be in demand like Wagner and Soriano; but they certainly could get a Myers, Gregg, Lyon or
Rodney at a reasonable price and they can do the job as the closer for a bad team until someone younger and better can be
groomed.
Davis is a guy who somehow gets by with stuff that can't even be
described as mediocre and is a .500 pitcher every single year. Any pitcher who can will his way to getting big league hitters
out with such junk should be a good influence on the posse of talented youngsters that are at long last making their way to
the big leagues for the Orioles.
Pedro Martinez wants to pitch next year and could fall to the Orioles to get that chance. While under normal circumstances,
Pedro wouldn't want to go to a losing situation, this is different. Given how long he waited to join a big league club in
2009, it's not out of the question that he'd be willing to go to Baltimore and be a mentor to the youngsters.
Marquis will have enough offers to go to a better
team than the Orioles, but he's a veteran who gobbles innings. That's something to keep tabs on.
Via trade: INF/OF/C Brandon Inge (Tigers); OF David DeJesus (Royals); OF Marlon Byrd (Rangers);
1B/3B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); RHP Derek Lowe (Braves); Garrett Atkins (Rockies)
Inge could be part of the Tigers slashing of salaries and can play multiple positions well and hits for power.
DeJesus is a good player stuck in a situation in Kansas
City that's worse than the one in Baltimore.
Byrd is a solid veteran with some pop. Cantu will be expensive, but would solve the Orioles third base problem and
hits the ball out of the park. The same applies to Ross.
The Braves are shopping Lowe; he's expensive in money, but won't cost much in terms of players for
whoever's willing to take the contract. The thing about Lowe is that he can relieve as well as start; he'd be a good influence
on the Orioles youngsters.
Atkins lost
his starting job for the Rockies and is being shopped. He's arbitration-eligible and will be moved.
The
"controversy" over Tim Lincecum's Cy Young Award:
There's a back-and-forth going on between the "traditional" baseball watchers (old-school)
and the stat zombies because Keith Law and Will Carroll left Chris Carpenter off of their ballots entirely for the NL Cy Young
Award.
Lincecum deserved to win the award
as I said in my posting on October 5th----link. I had Wainwright second; Carpenter third; Javier Vazquez (who Law had second) fourth; and Jair Jurrjens fifth.
Given the arbitrary nature in which many voters who
are more old-school tend to cast their ballots, it's absurd to give guys like Law and Carroll a hard time for basing their
selections on what they believe. Vazquez would've won 22 games with a better bullpen, so it's not stupid to have him rated
as highly as Law did.
Just like
with the Hall of Fame, there are no baseline criteria for a candidate. Many times a writer's beliefs----such as a reliever
shouldn't win the award under any circumstances, etc----influence him. Sometimes it's payback. Is Law's vote any more ridiculous
than in 2000 when Yankees beat writer/rabid Yankee apologist George King refused to vote for Pedro Martinez for the MVP because
he was a pitcher (this is after King gave votes to two pitchers the season before)?
What would King's vote have been had Pedro been wearing a Yankee uniform
rather than a Red Sox uniform? Pedro deserved the MVP that year.
There are different ways to come to conclusions in situations such as this, just like in procuring
players and building teams. There are plenty of other reasons to attack the stat zombies; this ain't one of them.
All things being equal, the Blue Jays situation
isn't that bad.
What they need: A shortstop; a catcher; a power outfield bat; a closer;
to settle the Roy Halladay situation.
Free agents: C Rod Barajas; SS John McDonald; DH/1B
Kevin Millar; SS Marco Scutaro
Barajas, McDonald and Millar are all gone.
Scutaro had his career-year at age 33 (he turned
34 a month ago); someone (the Red Sox?) will sign him to the one moderate-to-big money deal he'll get in his career to be
a short-term solution to their shortstop problems. The Blue Jays don't have the money nor the wherewithal to keep him, although
I'm sure they'd like to; it's lunacy to pay a decent but not great player like Scutaro based on the best season he'll
ever have at an advanced age.
Players available via trade: RHP Roy Halladay; 1B Lyle Overbay; 3B
Edwin Encarnacion; CF Vernon Wells
The Blue Jays would be better suited to get the Halladay
situation solved before spring training because it's going to be a distraction from the beginning of the season until the
end. They have no chance of keeping him as a free agent after 2010; he's never going to have more value than he does now;
they can't run the risk of him getting hurt next year in a Blue Jays uniform; and he wants out.
What they need to do is go to the interested teams and tell them
that they'll give a window to negotiate with Halladay for a long-term extension; present their demands to each club and say
the first one to come up with the goods gets the pitcher. Halladay's been nice about the trade request; but if this drags
out, he may not be nice for much longer and it could eventually turn into a "get me the hell outta here!" situation----the
last thing the Blue Jays need to get the biggest possible return.
New GM Alex Anthopolous has said all the right things regarding Halladay----"we're under no obligation
to trade him" etc.----but he knows they have to move him before the time bomb explodes. The lesson from what happened
to the Twins in the Johan Santana trade should be taken very seriously by the Blue Jays; as one team after another drops out
of the bidding based on a myriad of factors, they could end up with what the Twins got for Santana----nothing.
Trade him now.
Overbay's making $7 million next year after which his contract expires. They don't have to trade him, but he's out
there and has good value as an extra-base threat and excellent defensive first baseman.
Encarnacion is a superstar talent who didn't impress after coming to the Blue Jays from the Reds in the Scott Rolen trade.
He's arbitration-eligible and his abilities will always lead some team to take a chance on him. He'll only be 27 in January.
I can't blame teams that want to take a shot; Encarnacion is a gifted physical talent who made Dusty Baker want to strangle
him. How do you get Dusty Baker mad at you? (I can relate to those that frustrate the unfrustratable; many people would like
to strangle me. I can't blame them.)
You want Vernon Wells? He's yours.
Non-tender
candidates: RHP Jeremy Accardo; RHP Shawn Camp; C Raul Chavez; 3B Edwin Encarnacion; OF Joe Inglett; RHP Casey Janssen;
RHP Brandon League
Accardo has closed before and done well; he's had injury problems; I've
always liked his stuff. They'll probably try to trade him first and get something for him, but he'll be non-tendered.
Camp is one of those journeyman type relievers who
gets signed and is occasionally a big payoff for a team sifting through the rabble. He won't be a Blue Jay next year.
Chavez is arbitration-eligible and easily replaceable
as a backup catcher; he'll be 37 early next year.
Inglett has use as a backup outfielder, but it won't be in Toronto next year.
Jansson is arbitration-eligible; showed great potential as a reliever in 2007
and has struggled with injuries and inconsistency since. Gone.
League is an interesting case because he's got such a great arm. He throws an effortless fastball in
the upper 90s and could be a steal for someone. Never having been able to put it all together; that he allows a lot of homers
and is arbitration-eligible makes him a non-tender candidate; but it's hard to give up on an arm like that. Someone could
catch lightning in a bottle with League.
Players to pursue:
Free
agents: RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves); 3B Melvin Mora (Orioles); LHP Billy Wagner (Red Sox); RHP Kevin Gregg (Cubs);
C Ramon Castro (White Sox); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); RHP Octavio Dotel (White Sox); C Yorvit Torrealba (Rockies); RHP
Fernando Rodney (Tigers); SS Adam Everett (Tigers); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); C Miguel Olivo (Royals); SS Orlando Cabrera
(Twins); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); C Brian Schneider (Mets); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); 1B Russell Branyan (Mariners); C Gregg
Zaun (Rays); C Ivan Rodriguez (Rangers)
The Blue Jays have in-house candidates who would be
solid bets as closers, but it wouldn't hurt them to bring in one of the available veterans who could be had on a short-term,
wait-and-see, mutually beneficial deal. You help us? You replenish your value in a year or two for another chance at free
agency. Soriano, Wagner, Putz, et al all fall into this category with various upsides.
One intriguing idea as a closer is Myers. He's a free agent; he liked closing
when he did it with the Phillies; it suits his personality more than starting; and he was pretty good at it.
There are reasonably priced catchers who could start the majority of the games for the Blue Jays and
not embarrass themselves at the plate while handling the pitching staff. They could bring Zaun back or go for Olivo and his
shotgun arm and feisty demeanor. Something tells me they'll end up with Schneider.
Dye fills the bill for an outfield bat; a lot would have to fall through for him to wind up in Toronto, but it's something
to keep an eye on.
If they trade Overbay, Branyan could play first base for a couple of years
and do what it is that Branyan does----hit for power and walk a lot while striking out a ton. At least teams know what they're
getting. Johnson's an injury-risk, but when he's healthy is super-productive offensively and defensively; he probably won't
cost very much as things shake out in the winter.
There are shortstops to replace Scutaro. Everett's
a slick fielder; Cabrera's had trouble finding work in the past few years so he might fall to the Blue Jays. You could do
worse.
Via trade: RHP Joba Chamberlain (Yankees); RHP Phil Hughes (Yankees); RHP
David Robertson (Yankees); RHP Clay Buchholz (Red Sox); RHP Michael Bowden (Red Sox); RHP Daniel Bard (Red Sox); RHP Wade
Townsend (Rays); RHP Jeff Niemann (Rays); INF Gordon Beckham (White Sox); C Tyler Flowers (White Sox); 1B Kendry Morales (Angels);
RHP Ervin Santana (Angels); LHP Joe Saunders (Angels); RHP Kevin Jepsen (Angels); RHP Jose Arredondo (Angels); RHP Anthony
Ortega (Angels); C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Rangers); OF Nelson Cruz (Rangers); LHP Derek Holland (Rangers); RHP Tommy Hunter
(Rangers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); LHP J.A. Happ (Phillies); RHP Kyle Drabek (Phillies); OF Fernando Martinez (Mets);
RHP Bobby Parnell (Mets); RHP John Maine (Mets); RHP Jason Motte (Cardinals); 3B Josh Vitters (Cubs); INF Mat Gamel (Brewers);
SS Alcides Escobar (Brewers); 1B James Loney (Dodgers); SS Ivan DeJesus (Dodgers); C Russell Martin (Dodgers); RHP Chad Billingsley
(Dodgers); 3B Ian Stewart (Rockies); OF Dexter Fowler (Rockies); INF Eric Young Jr (Rockies); RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies);
LHP Madison Bumgarner (Giants); SS Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks); RHP Max Scherzer (Diamondbacks)
This is a long list.
Without
going name by name, obviously the vast chunk of these players would be designated as untouchable by their respective teams...unless
the player they're getting for them is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay. The list of teams that are interested,
intrigued, attracted or whatever of Halladay is longer than the list of teams that aren't.
Team-by-team, the Yankees would have no choice but to surrender Chamberlain
or Hughes; the Red Sox are in a similar situation with Buchholz. The White Sox, Giants, Rangers, Mets etc would have to surrender
a bounty of talent to get Halladay, and supposedly more to negotiate an extension before completing the transaction.
As said before, the Blue Jays are taking a major gamble
if they wait too long. Teams will drop out as they calculate the asking price and the money for an extension. There's also
the chance that Halladay will waive his no-trade clause just to get out of the situation in Toronto and take his free agency
at the end of the year.
It's a
chess game. We'll see who wins. Or if some team gets very, very lucky.
If Anthopolous is smart, he could make a trade that will have the Blue Jays in a position to realistically
contend as early as next year. Their club----if you look at it objectively and ignore the turmoil spurred by the loose cannon/former
GM J.P. Ricciardi----isn't bad at all.
CHONE vs The Prince:
I'm somewhat indoctrinated myself to believing certain generalizations
the stat zombies make about the validity of their chosen ways of making projections in the pre-season. It's been said in certain
quarters in recent days that CHONE was something to the tune of "eerily accurate" or some such nonsense in their
predicted standings.
I sort of
believed it without checking.
Then I
checked.
I dunno if the person or people
who put forth this bit of nonsense were referring to individual predictions or the standings, but the CHONE standings, based
on whatever they're based on, were in fact, far less accurate than mine!!!!
Long story short, they were way off
about the Rays, Indians, White Sox, Twins, Rangers, Marlins, Rockies and Giants. I was waaaaaayyyyyyy off about the Indians,
Tigers, Rangers, Cubs, Padres and Rockies. I think I nailed much harder-to-get right teams such as the Rays, Marlins and Giants.
But I'm ridiculed because my predictions come from what passes for my brain, and they have all sorts of complicated (and evidently
dumb) calculations to come to their conclusions.
It's a farce.
Viewer Mail 11.19.2009:
John Seal writes RE Bobby Crosby:
Prince,
Twice now you've referred to Bobby Crosby in your Hot
Stove columns as either a good or a solid shortstop. I'm wondering what you're basing that on: I admittedly haven't seen any
of the defensive metrics from 2009 (and besides, he played more corner infield than short last season), but I'm fairly certain
that he ranked poorly in 2008. If you're relying on scouting reports, well, I'm not sure what I can say other than 'hire new
scouts'. To my eyes he looked terrible the last couple of seasons with the A's (not hitting didn't help, either), and the
consensus amongst fans was that, if Bobby was in the starting line-up, the game was already lost. So...what am I missing?
Do I need to re-assess and re-assign ownership of the coveted Goat of the Year Award to another 2009 Athletic?
Dunno what to think of you John. On the one hand, I do need a conscience
(I was born without that ethical albatross in most aspects of my life) and you're providing it in many cases. It's for my
own good. Few people have the nerve to speak truth to power (such as my power is.) I don't want yes men so you're extremely
valuable to my ends.
Mea culpa.
You're right.
For the most part, I mentioned Crosby based on two factors: 1) I remembered him
as the Rookie of the Year with pop who was also a respected defensive shortstop; and 2) he's a free agent who could be a stopgap
for various teams.
Looking at Crosby's numbers, he's been horrific; and for anyone to pick him up even as a minor league contractual flier and expect anything other than
what he's been in the past four full seasons would be ludicrous.
I will do my penance.
Y'know. Within reason.
Franklin Rabon writes RE Bill Belichick:
Paul, not to bring this back up again, and I feel kind of weird defending Belichick, but I don't think
his decision had much of anything to do with stats. I think in his heart/gut he firmly believed that Peyton Manning,
at the end of the game was going to score no matter if he had a short field or 65 yards (about what a punt would have put
him at). I think he therefore felt that his only real choice was to just keep peyton manning on the sidelines.
I am very confident that a percentage never entered his thought process.
I mean you can question the logic of peyton
with a short field v. peyton with a 65 yard field all day long, and that's legit. However, you have to realize that
what you're questioning is more Belichick's gut that Peyton would have almost certainly scored if given the ball at his 35-40
yard line. Not some stats based argument.
I have to disagree about
Belichick's attention to the percentages. He might have thought that it was the smart play to try and end the game right there
in practical terms, but he knows all the numbers in every part of running his team and a game including probabilities of such
a move working or not. Even if it worked at that point in the game, it was a crazy thing to do.
I keep going back to the situation. The Colts needed a touchdown. If it
was a field goal they needed, then maybe----maybe----you pull something so against reality; but for a touchdown?
No way. You have to trust the defense and if the defensive guru Belichick doesn't trust said defense, the Patriots have some
major problems.
Perhaps the Rays could get a new stadium built if they
move their team to Dagobah.
Dago-BAM!
By
the way, Prince, what are your thoughts regarding Kevin "I'll Give Up a Ton of Homeruns No Problem" Gregg being
tagged as a Type A free agent? This bit of news is almost as absurd as the things that come out of Sarah Palin's mouth.
Dagobah would be like going into Deliverance with puppets instead of backwoods country folk. The pre-2008
Rays would've been a perfect inhabitant, but alas, not now.
I admittedly still get confused about the Type A, Type B stuff. I'd think it's based on numerical calculations
and looking at Gregg's numbers and not his overall results and shakiness, I guess he belongs in there.
I'd say that no one's giving up a draft pick for him, but then who
thought a club like the Cubs----who had championship aspirations----would trust him as their closer? But they did.
Gabriel writes:
Dago-BOOYAH!!
I want the Blue Jays to keep
their bullpen. It's the best part of the team, altough last year they imploded. A bullpen of League, Accardo, Hayhurst, Camp,
Wolfe, Frasor, Downs and Tallet should be enough to help the Jays to win games.
I don't want to get your hopes up especially with the Halladay sweepstakes going on, but if Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum
and Jesse Litsch come back to join their current starters; along with the solid bullpen and a decent lineup, they're actually
pretty good.
I was right about the 2009 Rays. Just thought
I'd point that out. Again.
What they need: A veteran closer on a short-term deal; a reliable,
veteran, innings-eating starter; an outfield bat; a backup catcher who can start if needed.
Free
agents: RHP Chad Bradford; RHP Jason Isringhausen; RHP Troy Percival; LHP Brian Shouse; RHP Russ Springer; C Gregg
Zaun
None of the Rays free agents will be back. Bradford, Isringhausen and Percival
were all hurt; Shouse is a journeyman; Springer will be picked up by a contender, as will Zaun.
Players
available via trade: C Dioner Navarro; SS Jason Bartlett; LF Carl Crawford; CF B.J. Upton; DH Pat Burrell; RHP Andy
Sonnanstine
Navarro was atrocious at the plate last year; so bad in fact that the
club traded for veteran Gregg Zaun to take a chunk of Navarro's playing time over the second half of the season. Could 2009
have been a sophomore slump for him after getting his first real chance to play every day in 2008 and doing great work offensively
and defensively? Or did the pitchers figure him out? He's arbitration-eligible and the Rays could look to move him and bring
in a cheaper alternative.
What is Jason Bartlett? Is he the solid but average
(or slightly above average) player he always was before 2009? Or is he the All Star he was in
2009? I kept waiting for him to fall off the planet after his blazing hot start, but he wound up hitting .320 with 14 homers
and 30 stolen bases, while playing fine defense. He's arbitration-eligible and is going to get a massive raise----possibly
too massive for the Rays to keep him. Add in that he may have had his career-year at age 29 and he could be dealt. What would
the Rays do if the Red Sox came with an offer for Bartlett? Or some other team hungry for a shortstop and willing to give
up a chunk of young players?
They
also have Reid Brignac ready to replace Bartlett. He has some maturing to do, but he'll only be 24 in January.
Crawford isn't specifically on the trading block; but he's not out-of-bounds either if a team
calls Rays GM Andrew Friedman to have a "chat". The Rays would be foolish not to listen to offers for Crawford.
He's one of the best all-around players in baseball and he's proven that year-after-year; he's in his prime at 28; he's going
to be a free agent at the end of 2010 and he wants to get paid; and the Rays have no chance whatsoever of keeping him.
It'd be easier to name the teams that wouldn't
want to get their hands on Crawford than vice versa. The Yankees have long been enamored of him, as have the Mets; the
Red Sox, Cardinals, Angels, Mariners, blah blah blah----all would love to get Crawford and lock him up long term. The Rays
showed guts in making the right call to trade Scott Kazmir when the Angels came up with a good offer (and it was a very good
deal for the Rays to get out from under Kazmir's contract, his up-and-down performance and potential for injury); they should
do the same with Crawford.
Trade
him.
Upton's lackadaisical performance and wanting attitude has put his name in play.
But he had a rotten year in 2009; he's arbitration-eligible and his value is down. I'd expect Crawford to be traded before
Upton unless they traded Upton for another team's headache, which would make no sense.
Someone might be willing to take Burrell for their own bad contract. He's making $9 million next year and was heinous in 2009.
That said, Burrell isn't as terrible as he was this past season; he could have a bounce back year if for no other reason than
he's going to be a free agent again. He looked fat and disinterested, but he's not exactly old (33). They might find someone
to take him off their hands.
Andy Sonnanstine isn't any good and the only reason
he might not be traded is because he won't bring enough back to justify it. At the very least, he's not arbitration-eligible
until next year, so he's still cheap.
Non-tender candidates: LHP Randy Choate; RHP Lance
Cormier; OF Gabe Gross; C Shawn Riggans
The side-arming lefty journeyman
Choate was used as an occasional closer in the Rays bullpen-by-committee anddid a good job overall, but
he's arbitration-eligible. He's gone.
Cormier is another replaceable, inexpensive
journeyman that the Rays got some use from and with whom they're going to cut the ties since he too is arbitration-eligible.
Gross reverted to the weak hitter he was before a stunning show of clutch power in
2008 made him an integral part of the Rays' pennant winning club. Gone.
Riggans
is a backup catcher who spent most of 2009 in the minors and will only be back if no one else wants him after he gets non-tendered.
Players to pursue:
Free agents: LHP Billy Wagner (Red Sox); RHP Kevin
Gregg (Cubs); C Ramon Castro (White Sox); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); SS Adam Everett (Tigers);
RHP Fernando Rodney (Tigers); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); C Brian Schneider (Mets); SS Bobby Crosby (Athletics); LHP Erik Bedard
(Mariners)
Wagner would be happy to pitch in Florida, not far from
his West Virginia home; he'd take a short-term deal to again become a closer since he's taking his career year-by-year now
anyway.
I'm no fan
of Gregg, but as a cheap alternative who could close if necessary and won't complain about being a set-up man, he's not the
worst option.
Putz
is going to have no choice but to take a short-term flier from a reliever-hungry club; he might get a chance to close in places
like Detroit, but the Rays should check in with him.
Rodney's better than Gregg and would also accept a set-up role if no job as a closer is available.
Everett and Crosby are solid defensive shortstops who could function as stop-gaps
if the Rays trade Bartlett and Brignac's not ready.
Castro and Schneider
are veteran catchers who'd come cheaply and wouldn't chafe at being part-timers (Castro seemed to prefer it in his time with
the Mets). Schneider's a good handler of pitchers and is a better hitter than he showed in his two years with the Mets. Castro
has power.
Dye will probably get a reasonable 3-year contract from someone that will
put him out of the Rays' price range, but similarly to the way Bobby Abreu fell to the Angels last year, that could happen
to Dye, a solid citizen and still a good player.
Bedard will end up somewhere on a cheap contract to
prove his health and attitude are sound. Bedard falling to the Rays isn't an absurd notion.
Via
trade: Joba Chamberlain (Yankees); Phil Hughes (Yankees); Clay Buchholz (Red Sox); Michael Bowden (Red Sox); Daniel
Bard (Red Sox); Jeremy Accardo (Blue Jays); Bobby Jenks (White Sox); Brandon Morrow (Mariners); Bobby Parnell (Mets)
I'd find out exactly how enamored of Carl Crawford the Yankees and Red Sox are. What if Friedman called
Brian Cashman and said, "Joba Chamberlain for Crawford, straight up, right now." Would Cashman do it? Would he think
about it? It'd take more than Hughes straight up, but would Cashman think about that? Doesn't hurt to ask.
The same holds true for the Red Sox. A nice young
package for Crawford and Bartlett with lots of pitching going back to the Rays might do the trick; and the Red Sox are willing
to discuss anything and everything.
Accardo is the typical reliever whose
value is down and could replenish himself with the Rays. He's closed before and is probably going to be non-tendered by the
Blue Jays.
Jenks is arbitration-eligible;
White Sox GM Kenny Williams has him on the block; he's closed in big games and gotten the job done; and Williams is willing
to do just about anything. If the Rays want to get a better closer than what's out there on the cheap or stick with J.P. Howell,
Jenks is an idea.
How about a package for Crawford that start with Morrow? The Mariners
have screwed with Morrow just about as badly----and in a far less publicized story----than the Yankees have with Chamberlain.
Morrow may have to get out of Seattle to escape ghost of Tim Lincecum hovering over him. (Morrow was drafted by the Mariners
ahead of Washington State native Lincecum and never hears the end of it as if it's his fault.) Much as the debate regarding
Chamberlain has centered around starting or relieving and how he's been messed with, the same has gone on with Morrow. For
the record, I think Chamberlain should be a reliever; Morrow a starter. He's got star-quality stuff; he needs a new home.
Any deal involving anything with the Mets would involve Parnell. Parnell tired down the stretch after
a great start, was tried in the starting rotation and faltered. His 100-mph fastball makes him an alluring talent.
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What they need: Starting pitching; a power bat at first base, third base or left field; a shortstop;
a fourth outfielder/DH who can hit while playing semi-regularly.
Free agents: OF Rocco
Baldelli; OF Jason Bay; RHP Paul Byrd; OF Joey Gathright; SS Alex Gonzalez; INF Nick Green; LHP Billy Wagner; INF/OF Chris
Woodward
The key free agent to wonder about is Bay. He wants a lot of money and is in
demand from such teams as the Giants, Mets, Mariners and maybe the Angels. The Red Sox have the money to spend, but it remains
to be seen how much of a commitment they'll be willing to make to the 31-year-old. Bay handled the Boston spotlight; contributed
big hits; was an exemplary teammate; was a welcome change from the lack of hustle and crisis-a-day that was Manny Ramirez;
plus he put up big numbers and had big hits.
This doesn't eliminate the question of whether the Red Sox will be the top bidder for Bay. Bay wants to get paid and
the Red Sox need to get younger. Would they prefer to pursue someone younger and cheaper via trade and go in a different direction
to fill Bay's shoes?
Depending on the direction they take with the
bullpen, it's not out of the question that Wagner's back to take over as the closer on a short-term deal. Baldelli might be
back, but he's negligible and easily replaced. I'd expect Green back. Gonzalez, Byrd, Gathright and Woodward are gone.
Players available via trade: 3B Mike Lowell; RF J.D. Drew; DH David Ortiz; RHP Clay Buchholz; RHP
Daisuke Matsuzaka; RHP Jonathan Papelbon; RHP Daniel Bard; RHP Michael Bowden
Starting with the big,
surprising names, Papelbon is arbitration eligible, wants to get paid, and may have begun to wear on the front office with
his big fat mouth to the point where they want to deal him before he declines on the field.
Despite having abandoned the closer-by-committee espoused by the
stat zombies, the Red Sox still cling to the idea that they can find anyone to rack up the saves and pitch the ninth inning.
They've gone back to this idea repeatedly like a desperate and overmatched would-be paramour trying to get a date with a girl
twenty miles over his head. If they really wanted to, they could package Papelbon to a closer hungry team (the Braves?) to
get a shortstop (Yunel Escobar?) and keep Wagner to close for a year or two while grooming Daniel Bard to take over.
I would think long and hard before pulling the
trigger on such a monumental decision. There are closers who can get the job done during the season most of the time----of
which Wagner is one----but at crunch time, are they championship closers who won't gack the game up in the playoffs?
Mariano Rivera is a championship closer; Bobby
Jenks is a championship closer; and Jonathan Papelbon is a championship closer. Having watched enough of Billy Wagner in his
three healthy seasons with the Mets, I can tell you that he's not a championship closer.
For a team with aspirations for a World Series run every year, it's
a huge gamble to trade away Papelbon and trust Wagner or an inexperienced entity at doing the job. I'm not saying I wouldn't
do it, but I'd do it with trepidation before leaping.
Lowell had a decent enough season, but he's going
to be 36; is slowing down; has $12 million coming to him the last year of his contract; and they need the flexibility to move
Kevin Youkilis to third base if they get a power bat for first. Someone would take Lowell since it would only be a one-year
commitment; he can still play and lead in the clubhouse.
Ortiz is a pure DH; has $25 million guaranteed through 2011; and is only going to get worse as he ages and his bat
continues to slow down. No one's taking him unless the Red Sox take some rotten contracts like Carlos Silva's back. They may
as well just keep Ortiz.
Drew's
name was bounced around last year as possibly being moved. He's still productive, but is in the same boat as Ortiz financially
($28 million guaranteed over the next two years); he's not going anywhere either unless Theo Epstein pulls some Houdini act
out of his ass.
Matsuzaka's numbers
are misleading. He's not that good; has $28 million coming to him through 2012; and really pissed off the Red Sox by blaming
North American training techniques for his injury and poor performance. Someone would trade for him, but it's highly unlikely
he'll be moved.
The only way Buchholz.
Bard and/or Bowden are dealt is if it's for a big name like Adrian Gonzalez. It's a major possibility----even a likelihood----that
two of them will go in a blockbuster for a bat.
Non-tender candidates: OF
Brian Anderson; RHP Fernando Cabrera; RHP Ramon Ramirez; OF Jeremy Hermida
Anderson and Cabrera
are both gone. Ramirez pitched well, but the Red Sox might not want to pay him what he'll get in arbitration; I'd still be
surprised if they non-tendered him.
Hermida's
an interesting case. The Red Sox got him for a couple of mediocre minor league pitchers in a Marlins salary dump. Hermida
would be a far better fourth outfielder than Baldelli; he's not the answer as a replacement for Bay in left field. I'd be
stunned if they non-tendered him because he's such a talent and fills a need.
Players
to pursue:
Free agents: LHP
Mike Gonzalez (Braves); RHP Rich Harden (Cubs); RHP John Lackey (Angels); LHP Randy Wolf (Dodgers); SS Orlando Cabrera (Twins);
RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); SS Bobby Crosby (Athletics); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); INF/OF Mark DeRosa (Cardinals); RHP Ben Sheets
(didn't pitch in 2009)
Gonzalez is a former Red Sox farmhand who, as I mentioned yesterday, puts
up massive strikeout numbers and can close if needed.
The starting pitchers who are free agents vary from the established and expensive (Lackey); to the useful if healthy
(Wolf); to the ultra-talented and oft-injured (Harden; Sheets); and to the talented, oft-injured and obnoxious (Bedard). The
Red Sox looked brilliant last year going eight-deep in pitchers who could fill spots in their starting rotation; but injuries
and ineffectiveness ruined that plan.
I'd expect them to be big players for Lackey. Josh Beckett's contract is up after next year and the club doesn't appear to
be in a rush to resolve it. They might let him walk and Lackey would be a viable replacement for Beckett in 2011.
Harden is always hurt, but there's no questioning
his stuff; he'd be a short-term risk with huge upside. Bedard in Boston with his attitude would be something to see, but he
wants to get paid, so he might behave himself off the field and he's dominant when he's able to pitch; as a back of the rotation
flier, he could pay off big. Sheets has Cy Young Award stuff, but he too is always hurt. I'm not the biggest fan of Wolf,
but he's a real option for the Red Sox. I'd roll the dice on Sheets before the other risky names.
DeRosa is a winning utility player. Putz will be willing to be a set-up
man to replenish his value. And Crosby is a good fielding shortstop with some pop and could fit as a last resort for the Red
Sox if they can beef up the offense elsewhere.
Via
trade: RHP Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); RHP Felix Hernandez (Mariners); LF Carl Crawford (Rays); INF/OF/DH Miguel Cabrera
(Tigers); LF Matt Holliday (Cardinals); SS Yunel Escobar (Braves); RHP Javier Vazquez (Braves); SS Jose Reyes (Mets); 1B Adrian
Gonzalez (Padres); RHP Chris Young (Padres); SS Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks)
Much like the Yankees,
I doubt the Red Sox are going to want to meet the Blue Jays asking price in terms of players and cash it's going to cost for
Halladay. (More on this later, but could a similar circumstance as with the Johan Santana sweepstakes be brewing? Could the
Mets be the last team standing for Halladay as well?)
Epstein is obsessed with Hernandez and has the prospects to get him; but is Buchholz-plus worth it? Mariners GM Jack
Zduriencik isn't stupid and will get a lot from whomever is trying to get Hernandez.
Another issue that has to be a concern for the Red Sox is that despite their productive farm system, the number of prospects
is beginning to dwindle (it's a cycle as much as it's intelligent design). After the hellish trade for Eric Gagne; and the
deal for Victor Martinez, the Red Sox have to begin to think about diminishing returns on their aggressive deals.
The Red Sox could get Miguel Cabrera and he'd put
up MASSIVE numbers in Boston.
For shortstop,
Escobar is a star-in-waiting and a deal involving Papelbon would undoubtedly include Escobar as a centerpiece.
I'd check with the Mets on Reyes; they're not
trading him now, but if he continues angering the front office with his lack of hustle and quirks, he may not be as untouchable
as he was; his lost season of 2009 drops his value, but he's still only 26. The Mets are getting increasingly irritated by
Reyes.
Orlando Cabrera would be an inexpensive
stopgap at shortstop who's handled Boston before and was popular with his teammates, the fans and the media.
Stephen Drew is an option because no one knows what
the Diamondbacks are going to do; they've got this young corps sprinkled with veterans that's underachieved for two straight
years. There's nothing wrong with asking about a guy like Drew even if he's probably not on the block.
Holliday is a real option for the Red Sox. They can pay him; he'd
do well in Boston with the Green Monster; and he'd drive in a ton of runs. I think Holliday ends up in Boston.
If the Padres are intent on trading Gonzalez, the
Red Sox are well-situated to make a deal not just because they have the prospects to do it, but because former Red Sox assistant
GM Jed Hoyer is the new GM in San Diego. He'll have the relationship with Epstein to hammer something out and know which prospects
he wants. This might happen.
Chris Young
is a superior talent who's had some injury/durability issues, but he's making good money and as a part of any Gonzalez deal
could be a huge win as a throw in and mid-rotation starter.
Vazquez had a great year for the Braves, but they have a surplus of starting pitching. Any discussions
of Papelbon for Escobar could widen to include Vazquez in some permutation.
Could Roy Halladay fall to the Mets?
The Mets have had such atrocious luck in the last three years that it obscures the fact that their
off-seasons have been strangely productive as Omar Minaya took steps to address club needs and----even though they didn't
work as planned----he has the skill to wait things out and let the pieces fall in place before striking. It happened with
Johan Santana via trade; and with Francisco Rodriguez as the market for him was non-existent and he parachuted into New York.
As the Blue Jays sift through the offers
for Roy Halladay, it could be happening again before our very eyes.
Much like the Santana negotiations, the general consensus (mostly accurate) was that the Mets didnt
have the enticing prospects to get Santana. They had the money to give Santana the contract extension he desired, but the
Red Sox and Yankees both had far greater organizational depth to get the Twins star lefty. But as things spiraled through
the winter, neither the Red Sox nor Yankees were entirely enamored of trading a stack of their youngsters and paying Santana what was basically free agent money.
The Twins overplayed their hand badly and were left with what the Mets had to offer. A deal had to
be done before spring training, they cut their losses and took what's turned out to be nothing for one of the best pitchers
in baseball.
To this day I still
think that while the respective GMs for the Mets, Minaya, and the Twins, Bill Smith, were haggling, Minaya got wind from both
Theo Epstein and Brian Cashman of something to the tune of, "Listen Omar, we're not in this; don't get crazy with upping
the offer". The Mets got Santana.
Now let's look at the Halladay situation and the landing spots.
The Yankees? Are they going to give up Joba Chamberlain and/or Phil Hughes-plus to get a pitcher they'll
have to give $140 million? After they just won the World Series?
The Red Sox? The same situation as the Yankees without the World Series. Plus Halladay doesn't solve
their problems by a longshot.
The
Dodgers? I've been saying that's where I think he'll end up, but the ownership mess could preclude a deal getting done when
it needs to get done. They can't be providing $140 million deals while the owners are divorcing and brawling every step of
the way.
The Rockies? They have the prospects,
but aren't paying Halladay unless he takes a tremendous hometown discount to go to Coloardo (where he's from), something he
doesn't appear inclined to do.
The Giants?
They have the prospects, but do they have the money to absorb another pitcher making that kind of cash after the Barry Zito
disaster?
The one place that might make
sense is the Angels. They've got the money; they've got the players.
And then there's the Mets.
Contrary to popular belief, they do have the prospects to get it done if they're
sufficiently motivated; and they certainly have the money, Bernie Madoff notwithstanding.
It's going to be interesting how this plays out because there's a realistic
scenario that the Mets might get lucky again just by holding their cards and waiting until they're the sole survivors.
Viewer Mail 11.17.2009:
Alright, a Family sit-down with my Underboss;
Consigliere and Tex-Mex Capo (currently stationed in Germany). I'm still the Boss here.
If the Rays lose Crawford
then that team is sunk. The public relations blow would be so devastating that Tampa Bay would take years to recover.
Gabriel writes:
I agree with Jeff. The Rays need Crawford more than the Jays need
Roy Halladay (and that's saying a lot).
The type of player Crawford is has nothing to do with
whether or not the Rays will or should trade him. At his age (28), with his five-tool talent, Crawford would bring back a
bounty on the trade market. Plus, he's a free agent at the end of next year and wants to get paid. The Rays have no chance----none----of
keeping him.
They also have to
look at the possibility of contention next season. They're absolutely a playoff threat next year and would have a better chance
with Crawford, but in the big picture it might be best to do what they did with Scott Kazmir.
In dealing Kazmir, they got a lot
from the Angels in exchange for an expensive injury-risk who didn't look like he was ever going to be any better than
he was in 2007-2008----great when he was great; always a threat to be out for the year with an arm injury; wild and inconsistent.
Would it behoove them to hold Crawford
up for auction? See what the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Mets, Cardinals and a bunch of other teams would be willing to give
up to get Crawford? Considering their financial circumstances; that they've got him for next year and that's it; and they've
made smart deals for minor league prospects in years past, they should throw Crawford out there as a negotiable commodity.
Putting him in play and listening
to offers is not the same thing as putting him on the block. They'd be foolish not to listen to what they could get for Crawford.
Meeting over. The Prince is still firmly in charge.
Jimmy Bege writes RE the Yankees:
Thats a tough decision to make! Only problem is damon
wants another four years and his wheels are starting to go. Matsui the same! These agents are ruining the game to be honest
with you. I would only sign no more than two years with either athletes or let them go. Much too risky and with bad wheels
not a good idea for long term!
If Damon wants four years, I wish him luck. No one's
giving him more than three, if that. If he plays the mercenary game, he's going to regret it because the Yankees will tell
him to take a hike.
At some point, it's
time to stop blaming the agents. They're employees of the players; if a player like Damon wants to stay in New York, it's
his responsibility to tell his agent to get a deal done. If he doesn't and winds up in a situation he doesn't prefer, that's
on him.
Matsui is going to be agreeable
enough to stay. He doesn't want to leave and isn't a money-whore.
Franklin
Rabon writes RE Bill Belichick:
Hey
paul, I think the problem was more the fact that Belichick believed that not only would peyton score if they had punted, but
that the colts would use up the majority of the clock in doing so. Thus not giving Brady the chance for a comeback.
There was a snippet in the NY Times today about the percentages----link----dictating why what Belichick did was the "right" thing.
It's insanity.
This exemplifies the problem with the stat zombie. They think they're playing percentages favorable to themselves; hedging
their bets and putting their teams in the best circumstances and are ignoring the reality staring them in the face.
You hear these numbers 77.whatever% if you do
this; 76.whatever% if you do that and it diminishes people who are supposedly the best at what they do into numbers crunching
automatons for whom any analysis that comes from experience and interpretation goes flying out the window. I don't care what
the odds were...*
*Quote one of the coolest guys ever, ever----Han Solo: "Never tell me the odds!"
....you cannot give Peyton Manning the ball on such a short field with a six-point lead. It was overthinking; over-dedication
to the numbers; arrogance; and stupidity combined into one ridiculous, losing package.
Good thing I'm so persistent. With the battle I'm fighting, a lesser man might
give in. Not me, though.
It's time for my post-season "suggestions"
of what each team should and shouldn't do. Some might listen; most won't----but they should.
We'll go team-by-team on a daily basis starting with the Yankees.
What they need: A durable, veteran starting pitcher to pitch serviceably and gobble innings; a younger
left fielder or more productive center fielder; a backup catcher; bullpen help.
Free
agents: OF Johnny Damon; INF/OF Jerry Hairston Jr; INF/OF Eric Hinske; DH Hideki Matsui; C Jose Molina; OF/1B Xavier
Nady; LHP Andy Pettitte
It sounds as if Damon is conflicted between looking for bigger money and
staying with the Yankees. If he's looking for the Yankees to give him anything more than two years guaranteed (maybe) plus
a vesting option based on health, then forget it, GM Brian Cashman will tell him to take a walk. Remember his agent is Scott
Boras and that as likable as Damon is and no matter how hard he plays, he's shown some mercenary tendencies. The problem is,
I don't know who's going to give Damon what he wants and if he waits too long before taking any reasonable Yankee offer, they're
going to go elsewhere to fill left field.
Depending on Hideki Matsui's demands, it's possible that Damon could return as a part-time DH, part-time outfielder.
The club would have more on-field flexibility with Damon than they would with Matsui, but financially, Matsui will be more
willing to take a short-term deal.
I'd
bet on the dust settling and Matsui returning, with Damon walking----and regretting it.
Upgrading the utility player is a priority. Jerry Hairston Jr and Eric Hinske provided some use, but aren't the answer; neither
will be back. Molina doesn't hit enough to be a viable backup for the aging Jorge Posada.
Andy Pettitte will be back.
Players available via trade: C Jorge Posada; OF
Melky Cabrera; RHP Joba Chamberlain; RHP Phil Hughes
Cashman would love to unload Posada due to his contract
and his declining game, especially defensively. Posada's tense relationship with manager Joe Girardi and the pitchers is relegating
him to a club preference as a DH, part-time catcher if Matsui leaves; this is something against which Posada will rebel and
cause problems. Even teams that might have interest in Posada as a DH/part-time catcher/1st baseman----Mariners,
Angels----have to deal with his insistence that he wants to catch. He also has a full no-trade clause. He's due slightly over
$26 million in 2010-2011. He's not going anywhere.
As clutch and solid as Cabrera was this year, Cashman
should upgrade center fielder both offensively and defensively. Cabrera's arbitration eligible and reestablished his value
in 2009. He could go as part of a package.
Chamberlain and/or Hughes could be had in a blockbuster
trade for a Roy Halladay or, more likely, Felix Hernandez. Chamberlain is supposedly going to have his tethers cut next season
from the ridiculous Joba Rules/JOBA RUINATION, but I dont' know if he's ever going to be anything better than an average starter
at best. He's no longer untouchable.
Hughes might also be the centerpiece for a big acquisition to bolster the starting rotation.
Non-tender candidates: RHP Chien-Ming Wang
I don't see Wang going
anywhere else even if they non-tender him. Expect him to be back in camp next spring to re-establish his value as the pitcher
he was before injuries derailed him.
Players to pursue:
Free agents-LHP
Mike Gonzalez (Braves); C Yorvit Torrealba (Rockies); LHP Randy Wolf (Dodgers); C-Henry Blanco (Padres); INF-OF-Mark De Rosa
(Cardinals); C-Gregg Zaun (Rays); RHP-Joel Piniero (Cardinals); RHP Michael Wuertz (Athletics)
Both Gonzalez and De Rosa are in heavy demand, but the Yankee money will get both if they want them. De Rosa will
be a Yankee. Bank on it. And he's a great pickup for them. Gonzalez racks up
the strikeouts; gets out both lefties and righties; can close if necessary; and would be the ideal bridge to Mariano Rivera.
They need a backup catcher. Francisco Cervelli won't hit enough to do the job. Torrealba calls a fine
game; Zaun would've been a Yankee backup years ago had the Blue Jays not offered him the starting catching job and a lot of
money (for him); Blanco is great with pitchers and wouldn't cost a lot.
Wolf was healthy for
the Dodgers and, if the Yankees think he's going to maintain his health, would be a fine back-of-the-rotation starter. Piniero
replenished his reputation with the Cardinals and would also serve that purpose as a durable, trustworthy innings-eater.
I've always liked Wuertz's stuff and the A's are going to non-tender him.
Via
Trade-RHP Felix Hernandez (Mariners); RHP Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); LF-Carl Crawford (Rays); OF/INF-Miguel Cabrera
(Tigers); OF-David DeJesus (Royals); RHP Gil Meche (Royals)
Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik
is saying that he's not going to trade Hernandez, but if the Yankees offer a package led by Chamberlain or Hughes, you can
throw that bit of negotiation out the window. A Yankee rotation fronted by C.C. Sabathia and Hernandez would be devastating.
I still cling to the belief that Blue Jays GM Alex
Anthopolous isn't going to trade Halladay inside the division if he can help it. Nor do I believe that the Yankees are all
that interested in paying $140 million plus Hughes and/or Chamberlain and a package to get Halladay.
Crawford isn't overtly on the block, but he's available and would be an all-too-perfect fit for left field and the
top of the Yankees lineup. Miguel Cabrera's contract and that he royally pissed off the Tigers with his domestic incident
with this wife on the last weekend of the season may have made him available. Whether the Yankees would want to deal with
him is a question, but there's no discounting his talent and they could easily absorb his contract.
A lower cost solution for left field (or center field) would be native
New Yorker David DeJesus. His contract is reasonable ($4.7 million in 2010; $6 million option for 2011) and he's a very good
all-around player. They might have to take Gil Meche to get a favorable deal. Meche has $24 million due him in 2010 and 2011,
but he had two fine, sturdy years for a bad team in the Royals in 2007-2008 before injuries hampered him in 2009. As a back-end
starter, Meche could flourish with the Yankees.
And Bill Belichick as Barry Switzer:
What the hell was that?
It's interesting how Barry Switzer pulled a similarly stupid maneuver
as Bill (The Resident Genius) Belichick did last night in the Patriots 35-34 loss to the Colts.
Going for it on 4th and 2 at your own 28 yard line with a bit over two
minutes left and a six point lead?
Has Belichick lost his mind?
Switzer
did a similar thing in Philadelphia in 1995 and was rewarded with universal ridicule, including being referred to as "Bozo
the Coach". The Cowboys rebounded to win the Super Bowl and Belichick has accumulated enough respect in the bank to get
a pass for one dunderheaded decision, but good grief!!! What was he thinking?
Hypothetically, say the Patriots had punted and Peyton Manning drove the Colts
down the field for the lead score; did Belichick suddenly lose faith in Tom Brady after all he's done with clutch plays and
drives to think that he couldn't do it again? All they would've needed was to get into field goal range in the worst case
scenario of a Colts score.
John Wetteland's always been teetering on the edge:
There's a quote about John Wetteland, attributed
to sportswriter Terry Johnson, that pretty well sums up all you need to know about how his entire life has been spent always
walking the tightrope of self-destruction:
"Wetteland was the first guy Tommy Lasorda actually
thought was insane."
Think about this for a second and digest it.
Having managed the Dodgers for 12 years by the
time Wetteland showed up, Lasorda had dealt with the following players in that time (to just name a few of the more unique
personalities): Jay Johnstone; Don Stanhouse,; Jerry Reuss; Steve Garvey; Rick Sutcliffe; Mickey Hatcher; Pedro Guerrero;
and Steve Howe.
None of
the above mentioned players would ever be mentioned as the paragons of sanity. Varying from the slightly weird to the goofy
to the drug addled, there were diverse individuals to coax a performance from for a manager. To have that same manager, who
was a little odd himself, to think that a certain player was "insane" is saying something that shines a bright light
into what Wetteland's been his whole life.
Wetteland's latest incident in which he was hospitalized for what's being referred to as everything from a rapid heartbeat
to a suicide attempt----ESPN Story----the only people who should be surprised are those that haven't been paying attention to the various incarnations of the
man over the years.
The Sports Illustrated
article from 1994----Link----about Wetteland's conversion from wild child to evangelical Christian is a relatively clear window into how he experiences
such ups and downs leading to the leaping into extremities without thinking about consequences. Wetteland's history contains
the following memorable incidents:
He threw a chapel leader of the clubhouse----physically----while
in the minor leagues.
He experimented heavily with LSD, magic mushrooms and drank heavily as a teen.
Wrote loony bits of stream of consciousness above his locker such as the following:
INVISIBLE
COWS CONTROL MY DESTINY. COSMIC WARLORDS MAINTAIN MY SOUL. THE ROOM SMELLS OF BURNT PLAID. I AM SERVING
DOUGHNUTS ON ANOTHER PLANET.
(Huh?)
His wife and the transitory reality
of money, fame, a life of lunacy and searching led him to being born again as a Christian early in his big league career.
He wanted to start the last game of the season in 1989 because he wanted to tie a team record held by Sandy Koufax----the
record for wild pitches in a season.
In anger at throwing a hanging curve, he broke his toe with a kick...during
batting practice....in spring training....when the hitter didn't swing at the pitch.
Imploded completely
in the 1995 playoffs while pitching for the Yankees that manager Buck Showalter used Jack McDowell and had Andy Pettitte warming
up in the bullpen rather than go to his closer as they lost game 5 and were eliminated.
Rebounded to
lead the league in saves in 1996 as the Yankees won the World Series.
Lost his job as Nationals pitching
coach for disrespecting manager Frank Robinson and encouraging his charges to set off firecrackers, among other things----Washington Post Story.
And now this latest bit of oddness with the hospitalization.
It's not as if Wetteland was a stable character to begin with. Those that have something invested in the born again
Christianity of public figures or use said conversion as the basis for a personality change are missing the point of why someone
with the issues of Wetteland turns to God. The searching for an outlet led to the drugs; the wild behavior; the outbursts;
and the altered personality based on whatever was a good idea at the time.
Much like the fervency he exhibits as he talks about his faith with the conviction
of a zealot, so too were the frequent bits of out-of-control, self-destructive incidents that occurred long before this last
incident.
You can bet this won't
be the last off-field story about Wetteland. One can only hope he doesn't leap so far off the bridge that the bungee cord
that's brought him back time and time again doesn't snap so he goes plummeting into the darkness and can't bounce back. One
can push fate so many times before fate pushes back. Maybe Wetteland's getting the help he needs after this last progression
into self-destruction, but given his history I wouldn't count on it.
The Brain Eaters:
I woke up in the middle of the night, flipped on the TV and happened to find The Brain Eaters playing on AMC.
Horribly acted, senselessly scripted and absurd even by the genre of the 50s zombie films, the movie was so bad it was almost
good. It looked like something Ed Wood probably would've rejected as too camp for his sensibilities; that should've been on
Mystery Science Theater 3000.
And
then I read the movie description and could think of one thing and one thing alone----stat zombies:
Subterranean
parasites tunnel to the earth's surface to turn unwary humans into obedient zombies.
Sound familiar?
Subterranean
parasites? Sounds like anti-social math geeks emerging from their hives and integrating themselves into the real world armed
with their calculators and stat books to infect an unsuspecting public.
Obedient zombies? Much like those without any people skills or judgment whatsoever latch themselves
into baseball, they try to take over the world by using numbers and gutless ridicule to denigrate those that disagree with
them. Brainlessly clinging to the fallacy of Moneyball, holding desperately to the silliness therein, they remain with their
factions, eating one another and themselves along the way. The threat is dwindling, but still exists.
I must continue my construction of the ultimate weapon.
To save the world.
From the stat zombie.
It's down to me.
I'll do what must be done.
Viewer Mail 11.15.2009:
Jane
Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE the possibility of Wally Backman managing the Cyclones:
Sounds like Brackman is, indeed, in the Billy Martin mold. I hope he's successful - and stays out of
trouble!
I dunno if Backman can stay out of trouble. That's the problem
with such combustible personalities: they're so great at what they do, but part of what makes them great is the fuse that's
always on the verge of being lit. There's "good" trouble like getting suspended for an umpire freak out on the field;
and there's "bad" trouble like the off-field incidents that blew Backman's chance to manage the Diamondbacks.
If that attribute/detriment be contained and
pointed in the right direction, the Backman-type can be a big win...or a massive explosion. I'm being positive about it because
he'll sell tickets on his own and could work in the long and short term with the players catching some of his fire.
Good, 'cuz if anyone can straighten out Jose Reyes type
prima donnas it's Backman's drunk backhand slap to the face. I like it.
It's probably a bad idea for a guy in his 50s to take on the younger, more sober star of the team, but for the young kids
entering pro ball who need to be disciplined and taught to play the game hard and correctly? Backman's the guy. He'll get
in their faces if they don't hustle, that's for sure.
Franklin Rabon writes RE Jeff Francoeur:
Non-tendering Francoeur would certainly be dumb, but
I think you vastly overestimate the guy's ceiling. I'm just really not sure what he does well offensively. Even
as much as he caught fire during the half season he played for the mets, he didn't hit for anything more than middling power.
The guy just isn't going to hit 30 homers without turning into a mental trainwreck all over again as he tries to yank everything.
Like most mediocre offensive players, he could hit 25-30 homers and bat .250 or he could bat .280 and hit 12-15.
I just really don't know what you can point to other than a half rookie year to say he has multiple MVP talent. I think
what gets to people with him is that he just LOOKS like he should win an MVP.
He's a plus defender, a minus fundamental
player, a minus baserunner, a minus contact hitter, a minus batting eye, and a neutral power hitter.
When you say
he has multiple MVP talent, other than his fielding arm, what exactly are you referring to? Can you tell me exactly
what his talents are, in regards to baseball, other than a great arm?
Of course, he could totally transform himself
into a multiple MVP type player, but two things seem to get in the way: Can you name me a single player in the HISTORY of
baseball who has had his first 5 full seasons be as generally bad/mediocre as Francoeur who then went on to win multiple MVP's?
And Francoeur is the guy who's going to do it?
The closest example I could come up with comparing to Francouer
was Dave Winfield early in his career, who was a better baserunner. Dave Winfield, despite completely turning his offensive
numbers around, didn't win a single MVP, or even come in second, even once.
To win an MVP in our era, it would
likely take 40 HR's, 120RBI's, .300 BA, .390 OBP. That would be a joltingly shocking transformation for Francoeur.
Francoeur's ceiling offensively is somewhere around Shea Hillenbrand's career numbers.
The bit about Francoeur being a "mental train wreck" has merit, but
you have to look at the proximate cause of his fall from grace with the Braves. When a local hero, a sports star from the
time he was a kid to be playing at home and tagged with the expectations that Francoeur dealt with, it was all good...until
he hit that first speed bump.
Everyone----including
the Braves and the national media----was in love with the feel-good story of a hometown hero making good. It was only when
he slumped that his game went from "Jeff being Jeff" with a Manny Ramirez-like wink and nod to his talent that his
flaws became something to latch onto and use as weapons. The Sports Illustrated cover boy and future Braves star became persona
non grata with blinding speed. Add in that he was hearing advice from anyone and everyone on what he should be doing at the
plate, tried to incorporate the advice out of politeness or desperation and wound up back in the minors and the picture clarifies
of what went wrong in Atlanta. The way the Braves----especially GM Frank Wren---soured on him and jerked him around didn't
help matters.
It must've been a
rude awakening for such a heralded star who'd never had anyone criticize him, specifically at home, to have to deal with the
first bout of adversity on the ballfield. Things spiraled out of control and led to the trade to the Mets. Those same things
that made Francoeur the center of attention resurfaced with the Mets, but instead of being savaged for his penchant for talking;
his aggressiveness; for doing what he's always done; he was embraced in New York by the fans and his new teammates.
You could almost see the weight
of expectations and abandonment that had demolished his Braves career lift and he reverted to the gregarious, fun-loving personality
that he is. Statistics are not the basis of why I think he has such a limitless ceiling; it's his physical gifts along with
the new venue that are helping him recover his lost enthusiasm for the game.
I don't think his power can be described as mediocre. He had no problem getting the ball out of
cavernous Citi Field; I don't think he's mediocre as a baserunner or as a fielder either. You can be a good baserunner without
stealing bases. His kamikaze style in the outfield is infectious.
Judging a player by the numbers is a slippery slope and when dealing with a 25-year-old whose
career would have collapsed totally had he stayed with the Braves is not the way to evaluate a rough and unbridled thoroughbred.
If he can tone down his aggressiveness just slightly; if he's surrounded by hitters in front of him to get on base (Jose Reyes,
Carlos Beltran and David Wright); and protection behind him (examples, Carlos Delgado, Jason Bay), he'll drive in 120 runs.
Easily.
There's a time to take
a chance on talent and hoping to straighten it out. The Mets got him for nothing and he injected life into the club on and
off the field. Many players have had to bounce around and "find" themselves before fulfilling their potential.
Quantifying an MVP is impossible to do. Of course
with Albert Pujols in the league, Francoeur and anyone else will have a tough time winning the award. Mike Piazza said something
very astute years ago regarding the MVP. The gist was that any player mentioned in the conversation and voted in the top 5
could be considered an MVP; an extra hit; a big game; an extra RBI; or a memorable hot streak might push one candidate into
the consciousness and net him the hardware. When I say he has multiple-MVP talent, he can be one of the players mentioned
in that conversation. It's based on physical gifts and what he can do in the right situation.
Other players, statistically, could've been dumped
based on their early results. Dale Murphy won two MVPs after a shaky start to his career; he didn't blossom until he was 26
and always looked somewhat uncoordinated on the field with an odd hitting and throwing style and an awkward unathletic way
of running and stiff way of carrying himself.
Randy Johnson might've been a washout had he not stormed off the mound one day while warming up and, in desperation, gone
to an opposing player and pitching coach in Nolan Ryan and Tom House and cleaned up his mechanics and mental approach.
Ryan himself would never have made it had he stayed
in New York. It took the Angels sticking him in the rotation and leaving him alone that he made his career.
Sandy Koufax was the same way; it took a conscious
decision to ease up on the throttle of throwing everything 100 mph that he came into his own at age 27.
Then there are the talents that don't make
it. Bobby Witt should've won three Cy Young Awards based on ability, but only put it all together in one year----1990 when
he went 17-10 with great numbers across the board----but was always the guy managers and pitching coaches wanted to strangle
as they tried to get it through his thick skull that he'd be unstoppable if he just threw strikes. It never came
to pass.
I'm not saying Francoeur
will be a Murphy; a Ryan; or a Johnson, but the ability is there and it's not visible in numbers alone. He might
be a Witt and live with the oft-heard lament of "what might have been", but you can't make something out of nothing.
The talent is in there and all it takes is the right situation and people who believe in him to draw it out. He's worth the
risk.
My predictions in retrospect----National League
West:
Another near miss.
I'm getting the idea that I'll either take off like a rocket in the very near future of go sailing off the cliff like Wile
E. Coyote. Anyone care to venture a guess as to which it'll be? Send me your odds for either/or. They'll be published in a
future posting. I'm honestly curious.
National League West, Paul's Predicted Order of Finish:
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles
Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
National League West, Actual Order of Finish:
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado
Rockies *(Wild Card Winner)
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los
Angeles Dodgers:
Paul's Predicted Record: 85-77
Actual Record: 95-67
By now, Joe Torre would have a chance of coaxing the Washington Generals to a series of wins over the Harlem Globetrotters
by sheer force of reputation, handling of people and defusing bad situations.
With most other managers any team in the tough National League West with that
starting rotation would've stumbled around .500. A rotation of Randy Wolf, young Clayton Kershaw and the injury-hindered Chad
Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda; along with the floating fifth starters they used all season, should've had no realistic expectation
to the Dodgers to win 95 games, but they did.
I thought Billingsley would contend for the Cy Young Award, but he got hurt. Kershaw's gifts were apparent, but so
was the reality that he'd experience growing pains in his first full year in the majors. I didn't expect Randy Wolf to stay
healthy (history was on my side there), but he did and had a useful if not spectacular season.
Here was a creepy Nostradamus like bit of prognostication regarding Jonathan
Broxton:
(Broxton) sometimes let the pressure get to him in big games and overthrew,
which resulted in his fastball flattening out and becoming easier to hit.
Uh.
Yah.
Torre wound up relying on Ramon
Troncoso and Ronald Belisario throughout the year. I had no idea who they were before the season started. I'm still a big
fan of James McDonald, but he struggled in his first full year in the majors.
I try to come off with a "nothing surprises me" attitude of cynicism,
but it's partially crap. There's a bit of an idealist buried in here somewhere under all the other crud and I was shocked
that Manny Ramirez got caught using PEDs. Manny's year was unraveled by the 50 game suspension; his reputation sullied; and
his status as one of "the top three hitters in baseball" as I called him, is damaged almost beyond repair.
Under the surface and taken individually, my Dodgers
predictions were close to the mark; but discounting the Torre factor; the strength of the bullpen; and the mid-season acquisitions
doomed me to being wrong about them.
Yes.
Me.
Wrong.
Colorado Rockies:
Paul's Predicted Record: 81-81
Actual Record: 92-70
Who
knows where the Rockies season would've ended up had they not pulled the trigger on manager Clint Hurdle with the club stumbling
at 18-28? Jim Tracy's hiring and the sudden hot streak that is a hallmark of this club in recent years led to a run to the
Wild Card.
I had the Rockies loitering
around contention throughout the season and fading at the end. Ubaldo Jimenez and Jason Marquis performed up to expectations.
I don't know anyone who thought that the journeyman Jorge De La Rosa would be such a linchpin to the Rockies run. Neither
did I.
I mentioned Dexter Fowler
as a possible Rookie of the Year candidate and he played respectably as a youngster on a contending team.
One thing I nailed was the importance of Troy Tulowitzki.
He's the key to the Rockies. As he goes, so does the club and once Hurdle was fired, Tulowitzki caught fire; coincidentally
so did the Rockies.
San Francisco Giants:
Paul's Predicted Record: 89-73
Actual Record: 88-74
Like the Marlins, another near miss.
Where would I be right now had the Marlins and Giants won those five more
games each so that both would've made the playoffs? Would I be sitting there receiving accolades of "brilliance"
like Nate Silver as he received endless credit for his picking of the Rays in 2008?
I'm kicking at the door, people.
Just like the situation with the Marlins, I don't know anyone----specifically
the stat zombies----who had the Giants improving to the degree that they did. One thing that has to be accounted for when
looking at all the aspects of a club is their pitching staff. Any team with two young starters the quality of Tim Lincecum
and Matt Cain is going to be good for at least two out of every five games much of the time. Even Barry Zito had a useful
season when ignoring his salary and taking him for what he is now.
I drilled the value of Lincecum and Cain; that manager Bruce Bochy would manipulate the bullpen into
a solid year; and that their offense would be a nightmare (everyone said that). I mentioned Pablo Sandoval as deserving a
chance to play, having pop and on base ability, but never expected him to blossom into a 25 homer, 90 RBI man so quickly,
if at all. I predicted that the Giants would find some use from Juan Uribe and he hit 16 homers.
San
Diego Padres:
Paul's Predicted Record: 56-106
Actual Record: 75-87
It's a slippery slope when you project a club to be so universally heinous that they'll lose nearly 110 games, but
the Padres roster was so atrocious to start the season----even with Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez----that it was a reasonable
assumption to think that their downsizing would continue and contribute to rottenness of epic proportions.
Of course, dithering leads to mediocrity.
The same "deep strike" risk I took when trusting my eyes
rather than numbers with the Marlins and Giants also led to the gacks of the Indians, Cubs and to a lesser extent, the Padres.
The Padres were a weird team in that they had these
amazing hot streaks and humiliating cold streaks. It didn't take a genius to predict that Jake Peavy should be traded; that
Adrian Gonzalez is one of the best players in baseball; and that Heath Bell would be a good closer.
I noted Everth Cabrera as a prospect, but had no idea who he was; that
David Eckstein's days as an everyday player should be over----Eckstein had a decent enough year with some big hits. He still
shouldn't be an everyday player at this point.
I've always like Kevin Correia's stuff and, as I saw it, he was "salvageable" and more with a very good 12-11
season with fine across-the-board stats, especially pitching for a bad team.
As I've long said, Bud Black is not a good manager. Black did nothing to distinguish himself as anything
more than a bad manager for a bad team, overachieving record or not.
Arizona
Diamondbacks:
Paul's Predicted Record: 84-78
Actual Record: 70-92
Like the Mets and Indians, certain aspects of the Diamondbacks disastrous 2009 can be thrown out. When a team is built
on the foundation of having two Cy Young Award-caliber starting pitchers and one gets hurt, missing essentially the whole
season as happened with Brandon Webb, they're already on the verge of collapse from the get-go. That said, the club sabotaged
themselves to a large degree with the firing of Bob Melvin and by replacing him with a neophyte manager A.J. Hinch.
Hinch was also hamstrung by GM Josh Byrnes's verbal
validation of his qualifications as a manager by uttering vague terms such as "organizational advocacy" (whatever
that means) and giving Hinch a long-term contract that the Diamondbacks season was shot as soon as he took over. It's possible
that Byrnes was smart enough to see that and figured he might as well hire the guy he wanted to manage the club and get him
some experience despite the labor pains.
Stat zombie and not thought the Diamondbacks would be contenders. This was the second year in a row where one could to look
at the Diamondbacks roster and ask, "what's wrong with this team"?
Haren was as good as expected; Jon Garland was what Jon Garland is----an innings eater who will win
around the same number of games as he loses and gives up a load of hits and homers. On paper, they had an excellent, deep
bullpen; in practice, they were terrible.
I had Felipe Lopez as a "stopgap" and a journeyman at second base, but he had a fine year until he was traded to
the Brewers. I suggested that Mark Reynolds should be traded due to his shoddy defense and immense numbers of strikeouts;
he wound up hitting 44 homers. Justin Upton's development put him on the path to being a superstar. He's a smart choice for
the MVP as soon as 2010.
Was $5.5 million really out of the question for Braden Looper?
*Yes, I'm actually writing about Braden Looper. Slow
day.
I understand the Brewers' thinking
in declining the mutual option they held with Braden Looper. The negatives on Looper are what they are. He gave up a whopping
39 homers and when he was bad, he was horrendous; that said, he did pitch 194 innings and find a way to win 14 games (I know
wins are relatively irrelevant when judging a pitcher, but still...); and for the most part, they knew what they were going
to get out of him pretty quickly. Is there some value in that for a back of the rotation starter? And are they going to get
someone much better?
The option was
for $6.5 million with a $1 million buyout, so it might've been worth it to keep Looper and see if he's as good as he was in
2007-2008 with the Cardinals as a starter----and he was pretty good in making the conversion to the starting rotation.
With the number of non-tender candidates said to be
massive and the quality of such players extensive, if the Brewers want to bring Looper back at a reduced rate, declining the
option was obvious. They have payroll constraints factoring in; so it's not a ridiculous decision to cut ties with the pitcher,
but worst case scenario, they could always stick him back in the bullpen if he falters as a starter again. I would've thought
hard about this because while teams often focus on what players can't do, many times they miss on what a player can do;
and Looper had some value as an innings-eater who couldn't be as bad in 2010 as he was in 2009.
Speaking of non-tender candidates...
Who came up with this idea that the Mets were going to possibly non-tender
Jeff Francoeur?
It was pure nonsense
from the start.
Never mind the pure
talent that Francoeur has, the Mets got the guy for nothing (Ryan Church); he lit up the clubhouse with his personality and
all-out play; he played well; he connected with the city and the fans; and he wants to be a Met.
As another player whose faults are focused on far too greatly, Francoeur's
age and natural ability are too enticing to simply give away (the Braves doing just that notwithstanding). If the Mets are
able to bridle his over-aggressiveness just a tiny bit, surround him with bats who get on base, he could drive in
120 runs easily. He's very good defensively and that factor of wanting to be in New York isn't quantifiable.
How many players have come to New York (and not
just to the Mets) reluctantly and been colossal failures? Randy Johnson comes immediately to mind. With the way things have
gone for the Mets in the past three years, to have someone say he's happy to put on the uniform and play like it can't be
ignored.
That football mentality
of Francoeur (he was a high school star with loads of college scholarship offers) is an attribute, not a negative; of course
it's that go-go-go energy that leads to Francoeur's lack of patience at the plate, but to take that natural aggression away
completely would rob him of something important. His willingness to talk to the media; to try and lead by example and in behavior
is something the Mets have sorely lacked. Aside from Jose Reyes, they're mostly a group of quiet intellectual types; Francoeur
brings some swagger.
Who was it that
was standing on the top step of the dugout ready to fight after David Wright was beaned? Francoeur. Who was it that led the
team on the field during Wright's absence (after being with the team for a month?!?)? Francoeur. And who has multiple MVP
ability despite his faults? Francoeur.
The stat zombies hate him because he's so hungry to swing at anything and everything, but other aspects of his game make him
an important part of a club that needed what he provides: energy, enthusiasm and excitement. Non-tendering him was a notion
that came straight out of the same blue binder that led Joe Girardi to almost single handedly sabotage the Yankees championship
hopes. It should be flung out the window. Immediately.
Mets to hire Wally Backman to manage the Cyclones?
You want fire?
You want an over-the-edge personality in the Billy Martin style?
And you want someone to teach young players how to play all-out, all the time
and take everything you can from the opposition while getting in their faces?
Then you want Wally Backman as a part of your organization.
It's been five years since Backman was hired and fired as the Diamondbacks
manager within days because he failed to disclose his drunk driving arrest and domestic disturbances with his wife; and now
reports are saying that Backman will be hired to manage the Mets A-level club, the Brooklyn Cyclones.
Backman's potential as a manager is immense; his potential to
crash and burn is just as big. But if he behaves and instills the desire that got Backman himself to the big leagues and led
to a 14-year career, the Mets will have some well-schooled and feisty young players on the way up.
My predictions in retrospect----National League
Central:
Bad decisions
+ being bitten by a snake = the Cubs of Chicago.
National League Central, Paul's Predicted Order of Finish:
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates
National League Central, Actual Order of Finish:
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals:
Paul's
Predicted Record: 85-77
Actual Record: 91-71
Because of the way the Cardinals management had disintegrated
into a battle of warring factions between the stat zombies in the front office and old-school ways of manager Tony La Russa,
there was no reason to believe that either side was going to take command. In fact, I felt very strongly that this would be
La Russa's last season in St. Louis. So tired he seemed of the way his desperate entreaties for veteran help to try and win
immediately were universally ignored, it made sense that he'd use his expiring contract to walk to other (I won't say greener)
pastures. To me, that was the Baltimore Orioles.
Instead, the contending Cardinals----faced with the very real prospect of losing La Russa and letting a golden opportunity
to win slip from their grasp----eschewed the practice of humoring the manager while doing nothing and looking for cheap alternatives
to available star players, acquired Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday to go for it all in 2009. The biggest prediction I missed
on was La Russa's faction winning the inter-organizational war.
No one else that I know of mentioned Adam Wainwright as a Cy Young Award contender; I nailed that one.
I had Kyle Lohse taking a step back and he took about five steps back into the anger-inducing talent he's been for most of
his career. Given his injury history, it was completely fair to dismiss the possibility that Chris Carpenter would return
to any semblance of his Cy Young Award winning form, but he was masterful after missing a chunk of the first half with a strained
oblique. Joel Piniero surpassed even my suggestion that he could "return to something close to what he was at his best".
I had no concept that Ryan Franklin would: A) be
the closer; and B) be any good at it. But he was reliable for the most part. I thought Rick Ankiel would repeat his numbers
and he was injured and terrible. Believing La Russa would get a career-year from the shot Khalil Greene was a total gaffe.
Chicago Cubs:
Paul's Predicted Record: 96-66
Actual
Record: 83-78
Good grief.
In many ways, the Cubs were a worse disaster than both the Mets and Indians. At least those clubs have
a list of reasons why things went so horribly wrong. The Cubs were a victim of mismanagement; inserting players into improper
roles; misjudging personalities and the skills of the manager to handle them. I too was a victim of this in my predictions.
Suffice it to say I had the Cubs going to the World
Series and losing to the Yankees.
Suffice
it to say that it didn't happen that way.
The whole mess for the Cubs began with the odd acquisitions of Kevin Gregg to be the closer and Milton Bradley to play right
field. Never in my wildest dreams did I think anyone would be stupid enough to think that Gregg could be a closer on a team
with championship aspirations; because of that, I wrote that Carlos Marmol would take over as closer; instead the Cubs chose
to use Marmol as set-up man and Gregg as closer. I understood at the time why they did it----let Marmol do the heavy lifting
in the seventh and eighth----but Gregg is so unreliable that he descended into what he's always been as the season wore on
and lost the job to Marmol late in the season. I expected Marmol to dominate with his strikeout stuff, but his control disappeared.
I accurately predicted Ryan Dempster's fallback from
his career year in 2008, but in fairness, he pitched better than his 11-9 record indicates. It may be time to stop waiting
for Carlos Zambrano to put everything together and become the star his potential says he's supposed to be----he is what he
is until he's something else; that 's an injury prone head case. No one should take credit for predicting Rich Harden to get
hurt.
I thought Geovany Soto would
repeat his wonderful work from 2008 and he was horrific in 2009. Aaron Miles, a feisty Tony La Russa favorite from his days
in St. Louis, was a disaster for the Cubs. This pales in comparison to the biggest problem that sabotaged the Cubs.
Milton Bradley.
I thought Bradley's well-behaved and statistically excellent season with
the Rangers in 2008 was a sign for a new, improved player who would embrace his chance to win a championship in a loyal, baseball-mad
town, and playing for a manager, Lou Piniella, who'd know how to defuse any potential explosions.
Yeah.
Well, it sorta made sense at the time.
Bradley needs help. Very serious mental help. He's clubhouse poison and any team with designs on contention shouldn't
just stay away from him; they shouldn't just walk away from him; they shouldn't just run away from him; they should choose
to jump over the cliff rather than give him the satisfaction of taking them over with him. At least it'd be done of their
own volition.
I had a few things right
about the Cubs, but you can't dress up the prediction of this team making the World Series and becoming the dysfunctional
nightmare they were.
Milwaukee Brewers:
Paul's Predicted Record: 81-81
Actual Record: 80-82
After a stunningly good start----especially considering their shortness
in pitching----manager Ken Macha is the latest former Billy Beane manager to look pedestrian when out from under the cocoon
the good A's teams created for them. He hasn't endured the ridicule that Art Howe did, but it's been a similar result so far.
Yovani Gallardo showed flashes of developing
into the Cy Young Award contender I predicted he'd be. Gallardo will be a top shelf starter, but he's not there yet. Braden
Looper has become a surprisingly durable and useful starting pitcher as I predicted. Jeff Suppan was the mediocre (and worse)
journeyman that his talent dictates. Trevor Hoffman was far better than I figured he'd be, although I did think he'd get the
job done the majority of the time. Hells Bells are still ringing.
I thought the club should try and move Prince Fielder after his 2008 drop off, but he returned to his
power numbers from 2007.
I was almost
right on the money about the Brewers.
Cincinnati Reds:
Paul's
Predicted Record: 85-77
Actual Record: 78-84
The Reds were well on their way to a 95-loss season
when an August-September hot streak dressed their record up enough to make it appear better than it should've been.
I don't know what's happened to Aaron Harang, but
after picking him for the Cy Young Award in 2008 and watching him lose 17 games, I stuck with him believing he'd rebound to
something similar to the innings-eating, strike-throwing winner he was in years past----he went 6-14.
Jonny Cueto was up-and-down; Edinson Volquez got hurt. Both were part
of the reason I felt the Reds would contend----pitching. It didn't work out. I'm more of a fan of Bronson Arroyo than the
stat zombies because I appreciate what it is he does and don't lament what he can't do. He ate his innings
and won his games because that's what he does.
Edwin Encarnacion was obviously never going to fulfill his potential in Cincinnati; I suggested that if the Reds received
a good offer for him in a trade, they should jump at it. I do not consider the trade they made for Scott Rolen a "good"
offer. Joey Votto was emerging into the star I saw in spurts, but his mental and physical issues prevented him from putting
up bigger numbers than the 25 homers he posted.
I was off about the Reds because of their injuries and again overestimating manager Dusty Baker's skills at coaxing
his team to contention. This is after believing they'd win the division in 2008. It's a mistake that won't happen for a third
year in a row in 2010.
Houston Astros:
Paul's Predicted Record: 75-87
Actual Record: 74-88
The Astros had a lineup that, on paper, should've scored enough runs to
keep them respectable enough; they wound up 14th in the league in runs scored. Their pitching staff was shambolic after Roy
Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, just as I predicted.
Speaking of Rodriguez, I've long been a fan and have repeatedly said that he's a 13-16 game winner waiting to happen
and he finally put it together in 2009 winning 14 games; it could easily have been 20.
Brian Moehler took a tumble to the journeyman that he is after a solid
2008; Mike Hampton was an injury-riddled waste of time. Anyone could've gotten that right.
Manager Cecil Cooper was an excellent player and I thought he did a good
job in 2008 manipulating a strangely constructed club into contention late in the season. He engendered no respect in the
clubhouse in 2009 and was summarily dismissed late in the season.
I was accurate on the Astros.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
Paul's
Predicted Record: 64-98
Actual Record: 62-99
Would the Pirates have been any better than the misery
they were had they held onto veterans Adam LaRoche, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez and Nate McLouth? Probably a bit better, but
not much.
If anything, I was too gentle
on the Pirates front office before the season. The moves they made---signing the likes of Eric Hinske and Ramon Vazquez----made
no sense. It seemed as if they were doing things to make it look like they were doing things and that gradually extended
into the season with the strange trades they made.
I thought GM Neal Huntington and team president Frank Coonelly were clueless 2009 has proven that they are, in fact, less
that clueless. They're baseball anarchists who, like the Joker, just do things without
benefit of a plan.
It's time for me
to give up on Ian Snell. He looked like a winner a few years ago and I still like his stuff, but as Bill Parcells says, "you
are what you are"; and Snell is a mess who's now the Mariners problem since the Pirates shipped him off in the Wilson
trade.
I've relentlessly ripped Zach
Duke after everyone fell in love with him during his blazing start in 2005. In fact, I thought he might get non-tendered or
outright dumped by the Pirates----and he had an excellent year despite an 11-16 record; in all fairness, his won-lost total
should be reversed.
I was impressed
with Ross Ohlendorf when I saw him pitch for the Yankees, thought he had the potential to be a good starter for the Pirates
and he began to fulfill that in 2009.
I was definitely not a fan of Andy LaRoche despite the lust the stat zombies show for him, but after a wretched start, he
played very well for the Pirates as the season wore on.
I was pretty close to the bullseye with the Pirates.
I love being called brilliant but worshipped? That made
my day, week, year, life, afterlife, etc.
Somewhere along the line, I became so inordinately
smooth with the ladies that I'm bordering on obsession-level irresistible----and I dunno what it is I've done other than simply
being me.
Stat vampiress is a great
line. And I'm a Mets fan giving said worship to a Yankee fan!! They're gonna write books about us.
What am I saying? We could write the books ourselves. And you could get
yours published!!!
Where Stat Zombies have infiltrated
the highest offices of Major League Baseball...
Where feasts of brains cause one after another after another to
fall (Joe, where are you?)...
Where life as we know it has been ultimately compromised...
A NEW fiend
is unleashed:
THE STAT VAMPIRE
...The WAR has JUST BEGUN.
In anticipation of said war, this is as good a time as any to make this announcement: Jeffrey (Red State) Lung has
been promoted to Underboss. In a succession of power, that means the silent but deadly Allen (Blue State) Krause will be the
new Mid-West Capo running the Lung crew.
Jeff should be prepared to handle the duties of acting boss of the Prince of New York family. Things are getting very
hectic and the tightrope I'm currently walking could pay off big or turn into a personal and professional train wreck. I have
confidence in my navigation skills, but Jeff can run things given any unforeseen or unexpected occurrences that befall me
as I complete construction of the ultimate weapon and sort everything out.
Don't ask.
It's my mess and I'll clean it up. One way or the other.
My predictions in retrospect----National League
East:
All Mets fans
join hands and begin chanting: "It was the injuries; it was the injuries; it can't happen again(?).
National
League East, Paul's Predicted Order of Finish:
Florida Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies *(Predicted Wild Card Winner)
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
National League East, Actual Order of Finish:
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia
Phillies:
Paul's Predicted Record: 88-74
Actual Record: 93-69
I did very well with my predictions for the Phillies all things considered. Much as familiarity breeds contempt, it
also does the same for accuracy. I've seen enough of the Phillies in the past three years to suit my sensitive palate.
I nailed Cole Hamels having issues because of his
workload in 2008; and that J.A. Happ had the potential to bust out----I was a big fan of his after seeing his stuff last year.
It wasn't going out on too far of a limb to suggest that Brad Lidge was due for a fallback, but there's a difference between
him "blowing a few games this season" as I wrote and him imploding entirely mentally and physically. I was right
about Jayson Werth being productive if he stayed healthy, but no one could've expected him to become the weapon he was. Jimmy
Rollins's inevitable decline began (and will continue); and Chad Durbin had a major downgrade after a career year in 2008.
I was totally off about Carlos Ruiz being supplanted
by Ronny Paulino (who was traded to the Marlins shortly after being acquired by the Phillies); I said that Ruiz had a "poor"
bat, which is totally off. In fact, he's becoming a very useful, clutch hitter to go along with his excellent defense.
The Phillies lefty-centric lineup was expected
to be an issue and it wasn't as they rolled through the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs----then the
issue did crop up in the World Series and it cost them. The hangover from the championship didn't stop them from
winning another pennant.
Florida Marlins:
Paul's Predicted Record: 90-72
Actual Record: 87-75
This was the pick that launched a thousand attacks on me before and during
the season partly because I wouldn't stop hammering at it----with good reason since I was right.
To the best of my knowledge, no one----specifically the stat zombies----had
the Marlins doing much better than 75 wins; most had them at 67-69. The Marlins run into contention is a dual-edged sword
for me. Had they won, I might start getting my props; but I was still thisclose to bringing down the zombies with
this one pick.
Because of this
near miss, the construction of the ultimate weapon must continue.
As expected, Josh Johnson developed into an ace; Dan Meyer was a solid, cheap pickup; Hanley Ramirez
(my MVP pick) was one of the best hitters in baseball; I also correctly predicted the usefulness/production of John Baker,
Cody Ross and Dan Uggla and that the Leo Nunez acquisition was under-the-radar masterful.
I was wrong about Matt Lindstrom handling the closer's role; that Cameron
Maybin would develop into an everyday player; that Gaby Sanchez would take over at first base and contend for Rookie of the
Year.
Overall, I powered that son of
a bitch and almost hit the bull's eye.
Atlanta Braves:
Paul's
Predicted Record: 75-87
Actual Record: 86-76
Not to provide caveats for being wrong by over ten
games, but the Braves team that broke spring training and the one that ended the season in contention for a playoff spot were
almost entirely different. 2/3 of their outfield was changed with the trade of Jeff Francoeur and the demotion of Jordan Schafer.
The no-hit Casey Kotchman was replaced by Adam LaRoche. The team that they started the season with was no better than 81-81
if everything broke right. They changed on the fly and rode a late season hot streak to 86 wins.
Javier Vazquez won 15 games as I suggested he would (he should've won
22); Jair Jurrjens continued his development into an All Star; the bullpen was predictably shaky with Rafael Soriano's gopher
ball troubles; and Tom Glavine was dumped later than he should've been. The club's aggravation regarding the clumsy release
of Glavine could've been avoided had they done as I suggested and not re-signed him to begin with, or had they gently told
him to retire in spring training before it got as far as it did, forcing them to do what needed to be done, cutting him after
the season started and casing a firestorm led by Glavine's bizarre sense of entitlement.
With Francoeur, I said that going to another organization might be best
for his career; never in my wildest imagination (don't ask) did I think he'd end up with the Mets.
I thought Derek Lowe would be an excellent pickup, but after a great start,
he was horrific after the All Star break. Aside from Lowe and their final record (for which there is the excuse of
drastic changes), I was pretty accurate across the board with the Braves.
New York
Mets:
Paul's Predicted Record: 86-76
Actual Record: 70-92
Ugh.
I'm a Mets fan. Everyone
knows that. And I still picked them to miss the playoffs despite their glossy acquisitions to address their needs in the bullpen.
It wasn't due to the fact that the rosters of the Phillies and Marlins were so much better, but that the Mets in 2007 and
2008 gave me little confidence that they'd be able to win a late season dogfight for the playoffs.
I was right about Oliver Perez either looking like a Cy Young contender
or a guy who should be released. (It was the latter.) Ryan Church was traded as I suggested; and Fernando Tatis did nothing.
There's no way to accurately judge the 2009 Mets.
Everything that could possibly have gone wrong---on and off the field----did go wrong. By the time the Tony Bernazard controversies
popped up, the Mets were a wounded animal under heavy pursuit by the rabid dogs in the media looking to tear the beast to
shreds. Even with my prediction that they'd miss the playoffs, if that roster was healthy or even moderately healthy, no way
they would've stumbled to the 90-loss monstrosity they were. Savaging them after the fact is piling on and it's not fair.
Washington Nationals:
Paul's Predicted Record: 70-92
Actual
Record: 59-103
There's not much to say about a team that loses 103 games. I was right
about Ryan Zimmerman blossoming; and that Josh Willingham would put up his usual numbers if given a chance to play. Why he
was benched early in the season was bewildering then and now----when he was placed in the lineup regularly, he hit because
that's what Willingham does; he hits. Predicting Adam Dunn's numbers didn't take any great intuitive abilities since he puts
up the same stats every year, almost literally.
The rotation, talent-wise, should've been better than it was. Scott Olsen and Daniel Cabrera were both horrible and
their entire pitching staff from top-to-bottom was a train wreck early in the season, contributing to their hideous start,
manager Manny Acta's firing and 103 losses.
Speaking of the Nats, um....Jim Riggleman?
Jim Riggleman
is a retread as a manager. He's a guy who's just sort of there. As a replacement for the short term when there's
a firing (as he's been over the past two years with the Mariners and Nats), he's fine. He can run the game; handle the clubhouse;
deal with the media and do the job----the key words are "in the short term".
Much like the Rene Lachemann type, Riggleman can do the job if you don't
expect to win and need someone in there who's not going to embarrass himself or the organization; but is Riggleman
really the guy for a young and rebuilding team to grow with?
Riggleman has something of an unfair reputation as an arm shredder after he overused Kerry Wood
when Wood was a rookie with the Cubs; but just as Dusty Baker was blamed for the fall of Mark Prior, with the Cubs it was
a choice that had to be made: try and win when there's a chance or build for the future. Riggleman tried to win in 1998 and
got them to the playoffs where they were overwhelmed by the Braves. He won't abuse pitchers like that with the Nats.
I can absolutely understand the reticence
to hire a "name" manager like Bobby Valentine. With the Nats in their current state; in that division; with the
amount of money that Valentine would cost; the entire "Bobby Package" that scares teams off; and that the Nats can't
hope to contend until maybe 2012, Valentine wasn't the right fit. But why Riggleman as the other option?
There are so many respected coaches/former minor league managers
who deserve a chance to have a full-time job that there had to be more viable choices than Riggleman. Gary Varsho, Pete Mackanin
or John Gibbons are all men who would be better for the Nats than Riggleman and none would've cost a lot of money or years.
Maybe Riggleman deserves another
chance, but to me this is "been there, done that" when what the Nats needed was someone to grow along with the players
while providing experience and discipline to a young team. I don't think Riggleman is that guy based on the team playing better
after he took over for Acta and losing only 103 games when they were on the way to 115. If that's the standard----not doing
as badly as expected----it's a low one, and no reason to give him the permanent job.
Uh, yeah; sounds familar:
This is an excerpt from Keith Law's early trade analysis from the Hot Stove
season and discussing Mark Teahen:
Teahen has been overrated since he made a cameo in "Moneyball...
Hmmm. The same could be said for, oh, I dunno........KEITH LAW!!!!!
Law regurgitates scouting terminology and rode the Ivy League/stat zombie
wave into getting a job with the Blue Jays and is now accorded a column (which he more often than not mails in with pablum)
on ESPN.com.
Find a mirror,
pal.
A note about
Mark McGwire:
Who's running things in St. Louis? Is GM John Mozeliak the boss or is he just a puppet who
had to acquiesce to Tony La Russa's wishes to keep the manager and the team structure in place?
I'm on the record in my admiration for La Russa, but this Mark McGwire
silliness is over the line. Why was it not a prerequisite to him getting the job as hitting coach that he speak to the media
and come clean about his past? Why is he being allowed to dictate where and when he speaks and the nature of the questions
he's willing to answer? If he didn't like the terms, I'd have told him I'd find another hitting coach, no problem.
It's castrating the GM to have the new hitting
coach pull this stuff and it appears to be happening with the complicity of the manager.
Unsold on Chone Figgins:
Angels free agent INF/OF Chone Figgins is in heavy demand for his speed
and versatility, but with his main attribute speed and that it's such a weak free agent class, people forget that he's not
exactly young (he'll be 32 in January). He's coming off a rotten post-season; has no power whatsoever; gets caught stealing
an inordinate amount of the time; strikes out a lot; and wants at least $10 million a year presumably for four years
(or more).
Speed doesn't improve
with age, so what will the team that "wins" Figgins's services have by 2013-2014? This is a decision I wouldn't
take lightly because it could wind up being an expensive mistake for a player cashing in on his career year coinciding perfectly
with his free agency. Mark DeRosa's a way better option for a versatile veteran.
Viewer Mail 11.12.2009:
Gabriel writes RE Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays:
I'd have led the angry mob. And I'm a gentleman, I'd have slapped them, then throw them to the mob.
Roy Halladay as a Dodger it's something I'd like to see, because I like LA, and I like all the prospects they might
be willing to give. In all fairness, I just hope he ends up far away from both leagues' east coasts, except for the Mets and
the Marlins.
Adam Lind and Aaron Hill should win their respective
Silver Slugger awards. They had stronger years than all contenders at their respective positions.
If I had to stake the odds for Halladay's landing spot, I'd say: 1) Dodgers; 2) Rockies; 3) Angels;
4) White Sox; 5) Giants; 6) Mets.
I refuse to believe the Blue Jays are going to trade him to either the Yankees or Red Sox unless they get a massive chunk
of either organization's entire foundation. I'm talking both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes from the Yankees just to start.
The Marlins/Halladay talk was a mid-season thing.
He's not approving a deal unless he gets an extension and that's not happening in Florida; in fact, the Marlins look like
they're unloading some of their more expensive names which will lead to a drop of about 10 wins next year.
Oooooh.... YUM-YUM... Errrrggghh... LOVE WAR... Mmmm...
W.A.R. v. PECOTA PYTHAGOREAN THEOREM OF BRAINS v. WHIP.... Mmmmmm... y-y-y-y-yeeees... Likey Like... grrrr... CHOMP CHOMP...
WHERE IS WILSON BETEMIT... MMM... CHAD B-B-B-Bradford SUBMARINE... BRAINS!!!!!!
Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!!
I find myself in the middle of both far too often, I think. Sometimes by my own hand, but occasionally----as
in yesterday's case----not.
A note
about Jane: here's reason #15.964 to worship Jane Heller. In response to a comment I wrote on her blog about the idea that
stat zombies were disputing both Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter winning Gold Gloves (I've paid little attention to the Gold
Glove Awards since Rafael Palmeiro won the award for ostensibly not playing first base), Jane responded:
That's funny about Palmeiro, Paul. Since I'm not a stat zombie or even a stat vampiress(...)
Stat vampiress!!!!!!
Why didn't I come up with that one?!?!
It's mine now, but she still gets credit for it. BRILLIANT!!!!
My predictions in retrospect----American League
West:
This is what
happens when you let outside influences creep in, consciously or not.
American League West, Paul's
Predicted Order of Finish:
Los Angeles
Angels
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
Seattle
Mariners
American League West, Actual Order of Finish:
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles
Angels:
Paul's Predicted Record: 87-75
Actual Record: 97-65
What the Angels were trying to do in 2009 was what eluded both the Cubs and Mets in recent years----go for it all;
get close; look like they're the team to beat; get bounced in the playoffs; and come back the next year and get back where
they were to achieve a different result.
After winning 100 games in 2008 and making a major off-season move for Mark Teixeira, the Angels were knocked out of the playoffs
in the first round by the Red Sox. Logic dictated that their refusal to alter their offensive approach after they
acquired Teixeira and that they lost him to the Yankees as a free agent would cause a fallback in their on-field success.
The only thing saving them and kept them a playoff contender was the weakness of the AL West overall and their history.
I was unsold on Kendry Morales as a replacement first
baseman and he had a massive year. The Angels have always been notoriously over-aggressive on the bases and at the plate and
it's cost them in the playoffs.
There are certain things for which no one can realistically take credit for being right about with the Angels. Bobby Abreu
puts the same numbers up year-after-year, so by now it's a matter of plugging them in and waiting until age begins to catch
up with him----it's a guess as to when that will happen. The Angels strength isn't a secret as they stockpile pitching. No
one could've accounted for Scot Shields getting hurt. While Brian Fuentes is shaky, with that team and their consistent formula,
he led the league in saves. I expected him to struggle at times and he did. As they lament Francisco Rodriguez's departure
and Fuentes's playoff failure, people conveniently forget that K-Rod wasn't exactly money in the playoffs either.
Technically, I was right in my statement that the
Angels wouldn't win 100 games again.
They didn't.
They won 97.
I had the Angels losing in the first round of the
playoffs to the Yankees and they lost to the Yankees in the ALCS.
One aspect that brings sadness and reality into everything is my assessment of Nick
Adenhart. I mentioned how he had a great curveball, needed to improve his command and that he might need some more minor league
seasoning before taking the next step in the majors. Around two months after I wrote those words, Adenhart was dead.
That puts things into perspective with the force
of a swinging sledgehammer.
Texas Rangers:
Paul Predicted Record: 78-84
Actual Record: 87-75
Okay. Not only did I have Ron Washington fired almost before the season
got underway, but I had inter-organizational turf wars possibly getting GM Jon Daniels (who's done a great job after a rotten
and overmatched start as a young GM) bounced as Nolan Ryan took control. I saw their pitching as short, their bullpen questionable
and their ballpark a detriment to developing any of their young arms into anything more than grunts in the war of attrition
that a bandbox park creates.
There
was no way for Josh Hamilton to repeat his massive season in 2008, but I certainly didn't expect him to get caught falling
off the wagon, nor that he would be so injured that he gave the Rangers almost nothing. I had Elvis Andrus pegged as Rookie
of the Year; he had a solid enough year for a 20-year-old----especially defensively----but he has a distance to travel before
he's the hitter he can be.
I don't
know anyone who could've expected Scott Feldman to copy Roy Halladay's motion and doggedness to a stunning 17-win year.
I agreed with GM Daniels's strangely honest projection
that his club probably wouldn't show drastic improvement until the second half of the season and it turned out we were both
wrong. The Rangers had a fine year due in part to Ryan's and Mike Maddux's decision to push their pitchers past the absurd
pitch counts that have become vogue. Even with their questions surrounding Tom Hicks's finances, the Rangers have enough good
young talent to continue to rise.
Seattle Mariners:
Paul's
Predicted Record: 73-89
Actual Record: 85-77
The Mariners were the epitome of a team that lost
100 games in 2008 due to everything going wrong. There are 100-loss teams and there are teams that happen to lose 100 games;
the Mariners were the latter. There was no way for everything to go as wrong as it did for them in 2009. Expecting a team
to improve by over 20 games without making big money drastic changes is absurd in any case, but GM Jack Zduriencik's aggressive
maneuvers to improve the defense paid off.
Considering the way they jerked Brandon Morrow around (it's a less-publicized version of the Joba Rules/JOBA RUINATION
the Yankees are perpetrating with Joba Chamberlain), they're lucky he didn't blow out his arm. I still think Morrow has ace
potential and he's a guy who should be a starter. I was right about Erik Bedard, who at this point is so down in
value because of his fragile anatomy and contentious personality (he makes Kevin Brown look as affable as George Foreman)
that he's going to have to settle for a short-term, short-money deal to prove himself. Watch him wind up with the Marlins
next year.
I've never been a Jarrod
Washburn fan, but he had a fine year for the Mariners and yielded some value when they traded him to the Tigers (where he
promptly fell on his face). Their bullpen was a group of converted starters and journeymen relievers; their offense was a
question, but they had an excellent year from where they'd been at the end of 2008.
I thought the Mariners would improve, but not to the degree that they did.
Oakland Athletics:
Paul's Predicted Record: 84-78
Actual
Record: 75-87
This is what happens when outside influences and man-crushes enter your
brain and sabotage the system.
Everyone
was lusting over the A's (even though most had them contending in a weak division with a win total in the 80s) after GM Billy
Beane's aggressive attempts to beef up the offense with Matt Holliday; and the signing of reliable veteran relievers like
Russ Springer among others.
On paper,
the A's shouldn't have been as bad as they were early in the season and their record was only dressed up by a late-season
hot streak. They looked like they were going to lose 95 games at mid-season. In fairness, the one thing that screwed them
royally was Justin Duchscherer's injury/personal problems that cost him the whole season. They needed that veteran anchor
in the rotation to give their young starters a little bit of wiggle-room not to be relied on as much as they were. It's a
roll of the dice to trust young pitchers for a team that has designs on contending and it didn't work for the A's.
I had no clue who Andew Bailey even was before the
season started and he was an All Star. I thought Beane might make some drastic deals to go for it if the A's were hovering
around contention; instead, he cleaned house of the likes of Holliday and the shot Jason Giambi.
I was right about the offense being shaky; wrong about their young pitching
coming through well enough to keep them respectable.
ZOMBIES!!!!!!!
I didn't do nothin' this time and I somehow wound up in the crossfire
in a war (W.A.R.) on Baseball Think Factory----click here and scroll down to comment 30 to see your Prince dragged unwillingly into the conflict. (I shouldn't say "unwillingly"
because I'm not all that bothered one way or the other; I love a good scrap.) Much like the U.S. military cannot be the world's
policemen, I can't be taking sides in stuff like this as neither side in the conflict benefits me.
Darren Repoz posted the following comment when I was being blamed for
starting the skirmish:
Fun-lovin' Paul Lebowitz is the "stat zombie" guy.
I am fun lovin', but I'm not simply "fun-lovin",
I bring the fun with me. And I'm not the "stat zombie guy"; I'm the stat zombie destroyer and the ultimate weapon
to that end----and my taking over control of the universe----is nearing completion.
I have to give Repoz props because I haven't the faintest clue as to what he
thinks of me, if anything at all. Most of the time, I can gauge whether people love me (26%); tolerate me (27%); grudgingly
acknowledge my skillz to pay the billz (18%); hate/goof on/or are petrified of me (29%).
Although it's never personal, people know where they stand with me (see
DePodesta, Paul); it's a subtle and unappreciated skill to be or to seem indifferent; and I'm extremely grateful
when I get mentioned anywhere, positively or negatively----any promotion is good promotion!!!
How about those Cleveland Indians. I think I would have
predicted the Twins for first place, because they always seem to do better than people expect them to, but I never would have
predicted the Indians to fall off the face of the earth. Awful season.
Ugh. Can we just forget about the Indians? Theirs was the case of injuries and everything falling apart all at once. On paper,
they looked good enough to compete in a flawed division; the wheels all fell off at once. What can you do?
Gabriel writes the Blue Jays and Milton Bradley:
If the Blue Jays get Milton Bradley I'll personally go to the office and slap Alex Anthopolous and Paul
Beeston.
You'll have to climb over the people holding torches and truncheons trying
to do a bit more than "slap" them. Lucky for you (and unlucky for me in my Met hopes to get Lyle Overbay and get
Luis Castillo out of here in favor of a better bat at second base----Orlando Hudson/Dan Uggla), the Blue Jays have said they
have no interest in Bradley.
Truth
be told, the rumors were a little outrageous to start with; why would they want to do such a deal to get rid of a useful player
like Overbay when they could get Bradley without paying him if they gave the Cubs a halfway decent prospect? They could get
him literally for nothing if they really want him.
At this point, because the Cubs will be paying the majority
of Milton Bradley's contract the next two years (one would assume) I am surprised that more teams aren't jumping at him. At
such a low price, why wouldn't you take the risk? And when he DOES blow a gasket, it won't cost ya anything anyway. Personally,
I hope the Cubs keep him because I spend so much of my time ripping the guy and getting cheap laughs. Yeah, I'm not ashamed.
The problem is that it's not a situation where he's an "if"
to blow up at some point. Players like that who've had issues for one reason or another (I'm thinking Corey Dillon with the
Bengals and when he went to the Patriots; and even Gary Sheffield) have had reasons to blow up. With Bradley, if someone says
good morning to him wrong, it could set off a chain reaction of Bradley-stuff.
I briefly mulled the possibility of Castillo straight up for Bradley, but if
I were the Mets, forget it. Bradley in New York? No way. And it wouldn't simply be New York; Bradley's reached the toxic status
where you could replace any city short of the set of the upcoming film version of The Road and say no way to that
as well.
David writes:
Prince:
This is my favorite part of your blogging season; The "hindsight 20/20" section. It's like Christmas waiting for
the NL west and your retrospective / present / future outlook for my boys in blue. Next year is our year!* *if McCourt get
his divorce crap worked out and we make better decisions in acquiring quality pitching...
The Dodgers big screw up this year wasn't until the playoffs. Joe Torre was crazy to put Clayton Kershaw in that position
by starting him the in the first game of the NLCS (I think Kershaw might win the Cy Young Award next year); and Jonathan Broxton/George
Sherrill's blowups cost them two games.
I wouldn't worry about the composition of the club. Although this divorce is one of those public splits that's going to go
on for yeaaaaars and get very, very ugly, that could wind up being a positive because they'll try to do big things
to overcome the implication of disarray. Don't be surprised to see Roy Halladay in a Dodgers uniform next year.
My predictions in retrospect----American League
Central:
Suffice
it to say I didn't do as well in the AL Central as I did in the AL East.
American League Central, Paul's
Predicted Order of Finish:
Cleveland
Indians
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
American
League Central, Actual Order of Finish:
Minnesota
Twins
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland
Indians (Tied for last.)
Kansas City Royals (Tied for last.)
Minnesota
Twins
Paul's Predicted Record: 82-80
Actual Record: 87-76
The Twins always seem to outplay their projections whether they're formulated by stat zombie tenets or the way I come
to my conclusions----don't ask. Could it be that they win those extra 4-5 games based on the excellent fundamentals (the playoff
gaffes notwithstanding) that are drilled into the players from the bottom of the organization up?
I didn't think their fine manager, Ron Gardenhire, nor their attention
to playing the game correctly would be able to keep them in serious contention, but the division was weak and they hung around
throughout the summer when they got smoking hot to catch and pass the Tigers. I was totally off about Francisco Liriano carrying
his solid late-season run in 2008 into 2009----he was atrocious. I was right about Scott Baker still dancing through the raindrops
and having a good year; and the bullpen of the Twins is always good.
One thing that on the surface would appear to have been a correct prediction was that Joe Mauer would
begin hitting for power; but it's inaccurate to say I was "right" even though Mauer busted out and hit 28 homers.
My feeling was that Mauer would begin to turn on inside pitches a la Don Mattingly and start hitting the ball out of the park;
but of his 28 homers, 15 were hit to center; 11 to the opposite field; and 2 were pulled.
I was right about Carlos Gomez not learning how to be anything but a wild-eyed
lunatic (reason to listen to me when I discuss former Mets and what type of players they really are; reason to believe what
I say about Ryan Church as people insist he's a "better" player than Jeff Francoeur; he ain't).
Detroit
Tigers
Paul's Predicted Record: 76-86
Actual Record: 86-77
I vacillated on the Tigers. There were three ways for them to go. Either they were going to utterly collapse into 2008
Padres/Mariners territory and lose over 100 games; they were going to be somewhere in the middle; or they were going to have
a bounce back year and contend. It turned out to be the last of the three.
The Tigers year shows the danger of kicking a team when they're down and jumping
on a negative bandwagon. Things could not have gone as horribly wrong for the Tigers in 2009 as they did in 2008.
I accurately predicted that Justin Verlander's season
would go a long way in determining the Tigers season. I nailed Dontrelle Willis being unable to regain his form; that Nate
Robertson would stumble into the status of highly paid journeyman that his abilities dictate; that Armando Galarraga would
not sneak up on anyone again; and that the bullpen would be hit or miss with Joel Zumaya continuing down the road of "what
could have been" with his injuries.
I thought things were going to crash so rapidly that manager Jim Leyland would be fired and a drastic housecleaning
would tear the Tigers apart. I was wrong.
Chicago White Sox
Paul's
Predicted Record: 81-81
Actual Record: 79-83
This is a club that's hard to predict because
no one seems to know what GM Kenny Williams or manager Ozzie Guillen are going to do next. I think that's a positive. I was
right about Jose Contreras continuing his downfall; Gavin Floyd having a fallback from what could've been his career-year
in 2008; and that John Danks would develop further onto the verge of stardom. Given Mark Buehrle's consistency year-after-year,
no one deserves credit for any predictions with him----the numbers go up annually.
I didn't mention Gordon Beckham at all as a major contributor and I felt that
there might be an aggressive housecleaning of the likes of A.J. Pierzynski, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye. Williams
did deal Thome, but instead of cleaning house, he brought in Jake Peavy and Alex Rios with an eye toward 2010.
I was pretty close to the mark with the White
Sox.
Cleveland Indians
Paul's Predicted Record: 93-69
Actual Record: 65-97
Yeah.
That's right.
I had the Indians
winning 93 games and the division title.
Sue me.
While the Mets got the most attention
around baseball for "everything that could go wrong, going wrong" the Indians were a close match for what happened
to the Mets. The Indians didn't hit; didn't pitch; didn't do anything. I still believe that the Indians were one of those
clubs that were demolished by a bad start. It began on opening day when the Rangers punished Cliff Lee; Kerry Wood was a disaster
as closer; and the entire season snowballed until it became an avalanche which brought about trades of Lee, Victor Martinez
and Ryan Garko.
This was a nightmarish
season for the Indians and a hellish series of inaccurate predictions from yours truly.
Idiots.
They screwed up my aesthetic.
Kansas City Royals
Paul's
Predicted Record: 72-90
Actual Record 65-97
Stunned by the "experts" who had the audacity
to look at the Royals and think that they'd vault into contention with that pitching staff and bizarrely constructed lineup,
I was on the money about the Royals falling backwards into a ditch.
My man-crushes on GM Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman wore off long before their disastrous 2009
season. The inexplicable signings of Kyle Farnsworth, Willie Bloomquist and Horacio Ramirez bore out as the stupid moves they
were. Trading for Mike Jacobs was absurd before, during and after the season----specifically for an arm like Leo Nunez. Ramon
Ramirez to the Red Sox for Coco Crisp was almost as bad.
I nailed Gil Meche missing time due to injury and dropping in performance; and that Zack Greinke would develop into a top
starter (everyone was in agreement about that). I've always been right about Brian Bannister not being anything to write home
about despite certain stat zombie lust for him because he's acquainted with and tries to apply numbers to his performance----he
isn't any good. Accept it. (Note: another former Met is Bannister.)
I drilled my predictions on the Royals almost point-by-point.
Uh,
Dan O'Dowd deserves this award why?
Colorado Rockies GM was named The Sporting News General Manager of the Year.
No, I don't know why.
Aside from firing his manager Clint Hurdle and installing the superlative Jim Tracy in his place, precisely
what did O'Dowd do to deserve this award?
Admittedly, I'm no fan of O'Dowd who is either smarter than everyone else without knowing it or is the luckiest son
of a bitch on the planet (maybe there's something to the adherence to Christian moral values he preaches as part of his procurement
of players).
This award is the
epitome of subjectivity. Had he not fired Hurdle with the Rockies staggering at 18-28, it's likely that rather than collecting
an award for a job "well done", O'Dowd would be on the unemployment line himself.
The firing of Hurdle and hiring of Tracy set the ducks in a row for
the Rockies blazing hot streak and eventual winning of the Wild Card. The relationship between Troy Tulowitzki and Hurdle
had deteriorated until one had to go. It was Tulowitzki reverting to his 2007 form that was the catalyst of the Rockies leap
into contention.
What did O'Dowd
do to deserve this honor? Trading for Huston Street? For Rafael Betancourt and Jose Contreras? And to select him over more
deserving candidates like Larry Beinfest of the Marlins? Tony Reagins of the Angels? Jon Daniels or Nolan Ryan of the Rangers?
Jack Zduriencik of the Mariners? O'Dowd had a better year than each and every one of these other men? It's a farce.
If this is really on the table, do it and do it NOW!!!!!
There was a rumor that the framework of a three-way
deal was being discussed by the Mets, Cubs and Blue Jays that would send Luis Castillo to the Cubs; Milton Bradley to the
Blue Jays; and Lyle Overbay to the Mets.
If you're the Mets, this deal is a no-brainer. Castillo had a fine year in 2009 and has $12 million coming to him in 2010-2011.
He's an injury-risk and the Mets need some more pop somewhere in the lineup. Overbay has $7 million coming to him next year
and is the perfect line drive/all field-type hitter and solid fielder to thrive in Citi Field. They can then sign Orlando
Hudson to play second base and get something going offensively without spending a fortune on the likes of Matt Holliday.
One would assume the Blue Jays are interested
in Bradley if the Cubs pick up part of his contract, which has $21 million remaining through 2011. Naturally, the contract
is secondary (and thirdary and fourthary) to Bradley's other issues. Bradley is a time bomb, but he still gets on base and
has pop when he's healthy.
People
don't want to discuss the elephant in the room in terms of Bradley----his best year on the field and in his behavior came
the one year in Texas when he played for a black manager in Ron Washington. Cito Gaston is patient and laid back enough to
handle Bradley as well as Washington did. Under no circumstances am I implying that Bradley's problems come simply from a
racial chip on his shoulder, but it's not something to discount out of hand even if few want to see the correlation.
Following on the coat tails of your Ichiro/Matsui theme,
maybe Halladay would only go to Colorado if they brought in fellow Coloradans Chase Headley, David Aardsma and Luke Hochevar...
cuz like McCarver teaches us, all baseball players feel more comfortable playing with people who are from the same place.
Yeah, nevermind. That's stupid.
But Tim McCarver started the theme and his long history
in broadcasting and that he's still the number one analyst for Fox automatically anoints him credibility in all things baseball.
Doesn't it? And he's got a music album out too in which he sings. Sings!!!!
Halladay to the Rockies. That would make sense since
he's from Colorado. But if the Dodgers pay him more, the home advantage would probably go right out the window. On the other
hand, I wonder how the McCourt's divorce will hurt the team's ability to get deals done, Torre's extension aside.
I would think the divorce might make it more likely that the Dodgers do something aggressive
to send a signal that it's business as usual. They can pay Halladay for an extension; it's a pitcher-friendly park; and they
have the prospects to get it done. All things being equal, I'd say that Halladay would prefer playing for the Dodgers, hometown
longings aside----if he indeed has any hometown longings.
My predictions in retrospect----American League
East:
It's that time
of year in which I have to either tear my rotator cuff patting myself on the back (among other places) or issue mea culpas
en masse for being-----the rarest of the rares for me----wrong in my pre-season prognostication.
We'll start with the American League East in examining my predictive
skills with full disclosure and even-handed (what else?) analysis and none of the caveats and stammering that comes from the
stat zombies, "well, harumph, we would've been right if the player lived up to their statistical projections,
blah, blah, blah".
No kidding!
American League East, Paul's Predicted Order of Finish:
New
York Yankees
Boston Red Sox *(Wild Card Winner)
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
American League East, Actual Order of Finish:
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox *(Wild Card Winner)
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees:
Paul's Predicted Record: 97-65
Actual
Record: 103-59
Do I get 3/4 credit for having predicted the Yankees would win the World
Series even though circumstances and outright honesty required I pick against them in the ALCS and the World Series?
In all fairness, my case for the Yankees losing to
the Angels in the ALCS was solid enough. The Angels had the Yankees number for so long, weren't afraid of them and had so
many intangibles going for them that it was a reasonable belief that the Yankees overworked starting pitching, shoddy set-up
crew and manager Joe Girardi's propensity for doing stupid things would lead to his club getting bounced.
That said, I did make the pre-season pick; the did win
the World Series; and I did alter that selection in the playoffs. In my defense, it would've been the easiest and
most self-interested thing to do if I maintained the pick against my beliefs----and I didn't. I took my beating following
the Yankees win and was done with it.
I was right about C.C. Sabathia adjusting to New York
and pitching brilliantly; that Joba Chamberlain would struggle as a starter and be moved back to the bullpen for the playoffs;
Mark Teixeira behaved in an exemplary fashion on and off the field; and that Andy Pettitte would supplant the more expensive
and highly paid imports in the playoffs.
I was wrong about Derek Jeter's range and production at the plate declining (he had a fantastic year----never doubt Jeter);
Joe Girardi learning on the job to become a solid strategic manager (someone hide that stupid blue binder); Alex Rodriguez
winning the MVP; Chien-Ming Wang having a super year; and the big one----A.J. Burnett getting hurt. Burnett stunned me by
staying healthy. His performance was about as expected for someone as talented and flighty as he is, but he got in his 200+
innings and was far more durable than I thought possible given his history.
Boston Red Sox:
Paul's Predicted Record: 94-68
Actual Record: 95-67
I
had the Red Sox winning the Wild Card and losing to the Yankees in the ALCS. Jason Bay had as solid a year as I thought, was
a reasonable though not identical replacement for Manny Ramirez----but I'm sure the Red Sox were happy with Bay's improved
defense and attitude. David Ortiz's fade continued. Their offense was an issue and they did make a bold trade to replace the
shot Jason Varitek with Victor Martinez.
It's amazing how a team that had built as large a surplus in starting pitching as the Red Sox that they still needed
to search for starters as John Smoltz and Brad Penny were rotten and mediocre, respectively; and Daisuke Matsuzaka got hurt.
Tampa Bay Rays:
Paul's Predicted Record: 82-80
Actual
Record: 84-78
I nailed this one.
The way the Rays had everything work right for them in 2008 working with an overmatched manager;
a bunch of young players; erstwhile journeymen; and hanging-on veterans wasn't going to happen again, especially in that division.
They weren't going to sneak up on anyone in 2009. Andy Sonnanstine was atrocious; Troy Percival got hurt; the planned platoon
of Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler in right field was a train wreck. Their bullpen struggled despite misleading statistics that
they had a good year and the team faded out over the last month of the season, at times appearing to quit.
I thought Pat Burrell would beef up the DH spot, but he looked fat and
disinterested and was terrible; Jason Bartlett has blossomed into a star, something I never saw coming; and Ben Zobrist proved
to be far more than a roving utility player with some occasional pop.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Paul's Predicted Record: 70-92
Actual Record: 75-87
I
can't take credit for predicting the demise of J.P. Ricciardi because I've been predicting the demise of J.P. Ricciardi for
the past three years. I can take credit for the Blue Jays circumstances reaching critical mass in the mind of Roy
Halladay that he asked to be traded. Vernon Wells was a nightmare and their injury-riddled starting rotation and ever-present
spectre of Ricciardi and another blow up hovered over the club as things spiraled by the summer.
The Blue Jays weren't as bad as their record indicated. They got off to
a very hot start and contended early; my prediction of 70-92 isn't as close to accurate as it appears on paper. How Marco
Scutaro became such a good hitter is a mystery; Scott Rolen was having a good offensive year before he was dealt to the Reds.
Baltimore Orioles:
Paul's Predicted Record: 71-91
Actual
Record: 64-98
This is the third year in a row in which the Orioles got off to a respectable
start and fell off the cliff in the summer. I expected an improvement in the club's fortunes and in a way, I was right. They
incorporated some of the impressive youngsters Andy MacPhail's devotion to the farm system and dealing fading vets for prospects
has wrought. Their young pitching like Brad Bergeson and Chris Tillman showed promise; Adam Jones and Matt Wieters bring hope
to the offense.
I thought the Orioles
would fire manager Dave Trembley and make a big move on Tony La Russa after 2009. They kept Trembley and La Russa stayed in
St. Louis. I felt the Orioles would improve enough on paper to surpass the Blue Jays; I was wrong, but they did improve
because they're no longer relying on fading veterans in favor of developing their own players.
I was pretty accurate about the AL East. There weren't many "boy, did I blow that one" moments in my predictions.
I'll make up for it tomorrow when I recap my picks for the AL Central. In short, I picked the Indians to win the division
and they were nothing short of a catastrophe. I'll have to steel myself for the unavoidable----that I was horribly wrong about
something, believe it or not.
Speaking of predictions and mea culpas----or not...
I've never quite understood why people get so worked
up when an athlete makes bold statements and predictions and celebrates them when they're right, lambastes him when they're
wrong. Nor do I get why even the most swaggering, arrogant, and loudmouthed athlete can't credit their opponents when they
lose.
Joe Namath and Mark Messier
provided two of the more memorable bits of bluster when they guaranteed their teams would win in the Super Bowl and Stanley
Cup playoffs.
Namath made his cocky
statement before Super Bowl III when his Jets----heavy underdogs----were playing the mighty Baltimore Colts. The AFL was still
seen as something of a subpar joke by most NFL people and Namath had nothing to lose by coming out with his guarantee. What
was going to happen if he was wrong? Everyone expected the Jets to get blown out anyway. If he was right, he'd look like a
hero; if not, it would've been forgotten.
Messier came through with a hat trick in game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals as the New York Rangers were on the way to
their long-awaited Stanley Cup after the team fell behind the New Jersey Devils 3 games to 2. Messier lit a fire under his
club and came through on the ice; he would've been a laughingstock had the team not won, but part of that was leadership on
the part of the team captain; it was also partially a motivational ploy for Messier himself----and it worked.
What are these players supposed to say? That they
think they're going to lose? There's no risk in making such statements. If they win, they were right; if they lose, then whatever.
People get worked up when someone like
Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies comes out with his crap, but Rollins is one of those players who needs that kind of
pressure to perform----and he's come through many times. The issue with Rollins and others is that they don't know when to
stop. After the Phillies lost, he came out with the familiar nonsense with the following:
They
were the better team this series.
Do
I think we're the better team? I really do. They just executed. I think we weren't playing bad, but they were playing that
much better.
They got the
hits, we didn't. It's that simple.
Rollins is going to have trouble dealing with his
loss of skills in the coming years because his ego is so invested in what he does. Would it be so hard to admit that his team
got beaten by the better team? To say that "we're still better" is a character flaw that's embarrassing and stupid.
It's not a negative to admit that one was wrong; that they were beaten by a better team. But people like Rollins see it as
a weakness to give in on anything. This is why he's never going to change his hitting style or personal style; this is why
his career is crashing like a meteor.
Rollins is too egotistical, blind and invested in his persona to make the required adjustments to play at a high level. It's
not just class that separates Rollins and his Yankee counterpart Derek Jeter; it's willingness to acknowledge and address
frailties. Jeter had a renaissance defensively and offensively because he took steps to overcome his inevitable age-related
whittling of skills; Rollins will never do that because he can't.
This doesn't make you a better man.
It's no sin in life to make a mistake; the sin is not accepting those mistakes with humility and
doing your best with what's left. Rollins may not realize this, but he's going to learn the hard way----soon.
So I shouldn't expect to hear about Roy Halladay going
to Boston at the GM meetings next week but it's possible. I'll prepare myself accordingly.
Oh, there'll be the inevitable rumors popping up all over the place----many of them ridiculous. Then
there'll be the stories of non-existent deals that a desperate reporter heard from a bellhop and ran with to create a splash.
This is why I don't believe any deals are "done" until I see said player standing in front of his new team's logo
holding up a jersey amid the popping of flashbulbs. Until that happens, I don't want to hear about it.
I'd be shocked if the Blue Jays trade Halladay to the Red Sox. And Halladay
wouldn't solve the Red Sox multitude of issues anyway. My money is on Halladay going to the West Coast, most likely the Dodgers;
and don't count out the Rockies----Halladay's from Colorado and they have the prospects to get it done.
*Cue the sarcasm* Those GM meetings sound like a real
blast! The NHL is holding their GM meetings next week I believe, during the season. Why not try that, MLB?
Best
line: "Are Ichiro and Mastui Brokeback buddies in which they're willing to sacrifice anything and
everything to be near each other?" Let's hope not. But if they are, who wouldn't pay
to see that!?!
Finally, on Tim McCarver... what you said needed to be said. I agree. Baseball for Brain Surgeons,
McCarver's book, rests prominently on my coffee table. It's a fascinating book I recommend to any baseball nut; but you're
right, that knowledge has morphed into blind blabberings in recent years. I wish you would've mentioned the worst part of
McCarver's situation: that he is stationed alongside Joe Buck. I cannot stand listening to Joe Buck anymore -- way worse than
McCarver in my opinion. FOX Sports is run much like FOX News wherein any old piece of shit with an opinion will do.
Um. Not only would I not pay to see Ichiro and Matsui as Brokeback buddies, but I wouldn't
even watch it for free. But, to each his own. The Prince passes no judgments.
With McCarver, maybe I'm a little more chafed to him because he was a Mets broadcaster for so long
and I had to listen to him as his act grew repetitive and tired. When he was at the top of his game as a broadcaster, it was
easy to let little irritants go. Now, it's not just stale, but he's showing his age with laziness as well. Combine that with
his pomposity and it's time to move forward with new blood.
Buck is a farce and the only thing that will prove his incapacity to be the "face" of broadcasting
is the ill-advised attempt to branch out into a multi-level entity. Where's Artie Lange when we need him? Only Artie can save
us. He may be an anti-hero, but it's all we have.
It goes without saying that the game has passed
Tim McCarver by so completely that he not only shouldn't be the number one analyst any longer, but he'd be better served as
something of a "broadcaster emeritus" providing occasional commentary as a guest in studio. His shtick and oft-repeated
riffs----"speed slows down the game", etc----have grown so tiresome that no one's listening anymore other than to
tear into his screw-ups.
Years
ago, McCarver was the best. He was opinionated; he was smart; and he was fearless. Refusing to let player/team allegiance
affect his analysis to any great degree, he was a great listen and an interesting character. The problem is that his time
as the go-to guy ended in the late 90s. He's become a running joke, maintained as the top analyst because no one seems willing
to put him out to pasture and replace him with new and better blood.
The generic, "homer" style broadcaster was predominant when McCarver rose to prominence
in the 80s with the Mets, but it was the John Madden, McCarver-type----men who'd been intimately involved in their respective
games and were able to explain the action without being condescending or dull----that changed things. His candor got him into
trouble with players, fans and eventually his bosses, but McCarver did his thing, saying what he believed. The issue now is
whether his beliefs are applicable; if he's become too comfortable and arrogant to do even the tiniest amount of research
to avoid this evolution into an antiquated fool.
His cliches have become exhausted; his knowledge spotty; and the wear on his act is too evident to ignore. It's fine
to make mistakes on minute subjects that only the most die-hard fans of a team would know, but when the errors are combined
with lame stereotypes that he says again and again with enough of a time-frame between them that he should've been corrected,
you have to wonder if hubris and age have entered the equation until his mere presence is untenable for broadcasting credibility.
What would you think if McCarver said
something to the tune of: "The only way I see Jason Marquis leaving the Rockies is if he has the chance to go to Boston
to play with Kevin Youkilis because they're both Jews;"? Or: "The Angels would be a good spot for Jermaine Dye;
they have enough black guys to make him comfortable;"?
Sound ridiculous?
Of course.
But such was
the essence of the stereotypical comments he made about Hideki Matsui not wanting to the leave the Yankees unless he received
the opportunity to play with the Mariners to be a teammate of Ichiro Suzuki.
First of all, the sheer absurdity of a professional athlete making a business decision on where
to play based on being near another player is ridiculous on the surface. Has McCarver forgotten his playing days to that degree?
Are Ichiro and Mastui Brokeback buddies in which they're willing to sacrifice anything and everything to be near each other?
And why? What would the motivation be for Matsui to leave the world champions to go to a rebuilding club like the Mariners
whose playoff chances are limited at best?
Then we get to the well-known fact that Hideki Matsui and Ichiro are not friends. There are conflicting stories of
their relationship that run the gamut from the two hating each other, to having a frosty relationship, to being cordial but
distant. Because they're both Japanese is a stupid reason to think that they'd want to play together; then add in the well-documented
tension between them and it's nonsense.
If you look at the two players, it's obvious why they don't get along and are better off being on separate coasts.
Matsui is a team guy; popular and respected in the clubhouse for his on and off-field persona and playing style. Ichiro is
a diva; he plays for his numbers and is the epitome of the, "I got my three hits, what else can I do?" type of player
who equates his stats with helping the team. Contrary to burgeoning belief, many times numbers are the last thing necessary
to accurately boil the game down to success or failure. I don't care how many hits Ichiro gets in a season; how many Gold
Gloves he wins; at crunch time, I'd rather have Matsui 100% of the time.
Did anyone correct McCarver after he came up with this garbage early in the series? And if they did,
why did he say it again late in the series?
In case the people at Fox are still missing this reality, do the unjustified McCarver-ego and ever-increasing lapses
have to continue unabated until he becomes more of a laughingstock than he is now? How much longer are they planning to move
forward with him based on what he was rather than what he is?
It's time to pull the plug on Tim McCarver once and for all. Not only has the game passed him by, but
reality and society has too. It's enough.
What
is there to be ashamed of?
Bill Madden writes of the Yankees World Series win in his latest column and mentions Brian Cashman's apparent shame at the team spending all they can in order to win:
Believe
it, Cashman is embarrassed as anyone over the Yankees' bloated payroll and equally sensitive to the recurring charges that
he merely bought a world championship. Just read between the lines of what he said amid the on-field euphoria after Wednesday
night's Game 6 clincher: "I'm glad we were able to finish what we started. It's not like you can make something instantly.
It takes a process. You had major free-agent additions that cost a lot of money. You had some trades sprinkled in that helped
in a big way. Then you had a lot of homegrown guys, old and new, that led us here. That involves a lot of people, player development
people that finish off what the scouts bring."
This all comes back to
my question of why Cashman has to be embarrassed unless his main goal is to garner credit for himself. I've said it over again:
what difference does it make to Brian Cashman if he uses the Yankees resources to pay for what they need and win because of
money? It's not his money; it's not going to be his money if he saves it; what does he care?
If Cashman came out and said, "Look, we spent on pitching----both
starters and relievers----in the early part of this decade; we traded for Randy Johnson and Kevin Brown; we signed Jason Giambi;
and we betrayed what it was that built the dynasty of the late 90s and it didn't work. In an effort to keep on winning and
winning, we ignored the farm system in favor of the biggest names when it was Gene Michael who rebuilt the decimated farm
system with the likes of Andy Pettitte, Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada. We developed them and
gave them a chance to play. The star-studded teams failed; the cohesive unit of personalities and moderate stars that fit
into the puzzle was what made those teams. I'm not going down the spend-spend-spend road again. It's not about money or credit;
it's about winning."
Instead we
get a man almost ashen because he flung money at all the club's holes in the winter of 2008-2009 and won another World Series.
This to me is just as bad as the reluctance to spend money to be credited as a Billy Beane/Theo Epstein-style genius. Would
Cashman be able to build a team similarly to the way the Marlins do? I doubt it, but he doesn't have to. Why save
the money? What's the difference to him?
One of the major problems with the stat zombie movement is that it's got nothing to do with being better than the other
guy; it's got to do with being able to crow and strut about how they achieved their ends----the "I want credit"
brigade is added to the fallacy of Moneyball. It's so totally misplaced that it's a parody of itself.
To try and build a team scrimping and saving when the money's available
and waiting to be spent is just as much of a groundless, blind and self-serving objective as flinging the money is to begin
with. What's there to be ashamed of aside from wanting to be seen as a "genius"? Cashman wants credit and recognition
that the sheer nature of his job will preclude him from receiving. Can he accept it and move on please? It's not going to
happen. He's the GM of the Yankees. Use the tools----including money----that come along with it and stop whining.
I have a question. Do the GM meetings really start next
week? I thought they were in Dec, but maybe I'm thinking of the "Winter Meetings." What's the difference, btw?
I Yahoo'd "MLB GM meetings" and nothing of value popped up. I'll assume they are having
the GM meetings so soon after the World Series in anticipation of the full-blown winter meetings next month. It may seem like
it's a quick turnaround especially since the World Series just ended, but if you think about it, the teams that missed the
playoffs have been off for over a month now; and the dispatched playoff teams for a couple of weeks.
The GM meetings are more or less a get-together to start laying the foundation
for major moves at the winter meetings. They'll let other teams know who's available (especially players who may be non-tendered
to see if they can get something for them before pulling the trigger on letting them go for nothing) and try to start exchanging
names and get the pieces in place for deals. Naturally, like sex on the first date, deals just happen before anyone can get
over the rush of negotiation. A couple of things might happen at the GM meetings.
The winter meetings have become a full-blown cluster fuck. The media is all
over the place and, in some cases, pressuring the weaker-minded GMs into doing something for the sake of doing it rather than
what's good for their clubs. Making a deal for any reason other than the deal itself is generally a mistake, and you can expect
certain baseball people to do some remarkably stupid things in the coming weeks.
Like the sunrise and sunset, if you've seen an event happen every day without
fail, you come to expect it. That's where I am with the brainlock prevalent in a chunk of the people who are allowed to run
major league baseball teams. I have faith. It's not necessarily good to have that faith, but it is what it is and I stand
by it.
When----not if----when
Ken Macha is fired as Brewers manager (my money would be on sometime in May), is bench coach Willie Randolph even going to
want that job to clean up that mess?
With yesterday's strange trade of shortstop J.J. Hardy to the Twins for free-swinging and wild-eyed outfielder Carlos
Gomez, the Brewers are taking shape as a very odd team for 2010.
Fair enough, Hardy had a rotten year in 2009 (.229 average, 11 homers; 29 extra base hits; .302
on base percentage). He wound up back in the minor leagues; he's arbitration eligible after making $4.65 million this year;
plus the Brewers have Alcides Escobar ready to replace Hardy at shortstop. On paper, it makes sense, especially for a replacement
center fielder in Gomez to take over for the departing Mike Cameron. But does it make sense to deal Hardy at such a low crest
of his value? This is a player who'd been an All Star and hit 50 homers in 2007-2008; he's also a good defensive shortstop.
They would've been able to get a player at least as good as Gomez early next year and possibly more if Hardy got off to a
hot start.
With Gomez, he's an
ADHD (Attention Deficit Hyperactive Disorder) type of player. He's very raw; very talented; and the prototypical player for
whom there's no in-between. He's either going to develop, learn a little bit of plate discipline; fill out physically; and
become a 15-homer, 45 stolen bases, Gold Glove center fielder; or he's going to flame out and bounce from one team to another
as each tries to unlock his talent.
Having watched him closely, I'd say that it's the latter.
Since Gomez was the centerpiece in the Twins trade of Johan Santana to the Mets, we can officially say that the deal
was a total washout for the Twins. They got absolutely nothing for Santana.
What of the future for the Brewers?
The have a lot of talent----Escobar, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Yovani
Gallardo----but they're bizarrely constructed, top-heavy with stars and short on pitching. Financial constraints are causing
them to deal players like Hardy who are beginning to make big money and under normal circumstances would be given a chance
to work out their issues before being moved. Macha was almost fired after going 80-82 this past season even though that was
where the Brewers belonged based on talent level; that won't save Macha in 2010 if they're worse on paper than in 2009----and
they will be.
New pitching coach
Rick Peterson has a short shelf life for his pitchers to listen to his droning and nagging style, but his first 2-3 years
will yield vast improvements in what they currently have. There's still a limit to what he can do.
Macha's going to be in trouble almost immediately after the season
starts. He's on the last year of his 2-year contract and he'll be the fall guy.
It'll happen quick.
This is going to be Randolph's mess to clean up sooner rather than later, and it'll be a big one.
From the department of "no kidding!":
Phillies pick up Cliff Lee's $9 million option:
Um, considering that they gave up four prospects to get Lee; he was all-but-unhittable in the playoffs;
and is getting such a piddly amount compared to pitchers like Oliver Perez, why is this even newsworthy?
Manny
Ramirez exercises his $20 million player option with the Dodgers:
The Dodgers have a legitimate
case to try and get out of this contract. After the way Manny was suspended for 50 games for failing a PED test and wasn't
up to the standard of Manny being Manny that everyone automatically expected when he was playing, what's to stop
the club from saying, "hold on a minute" and trying to get the contract option voided?
Of course, Manny still hits enough and will be motivated to try and get
himself a long-term contract to justify a 1-year, $20 million investment; and he's still a gate attraction. He can still hit,
get on base and hit for power.
In and of itself, the contract should be another concern for the Dodgers because if Manny starts complaining about his pending
free agency and pulling the same crap he did with the Red Sox like clockwork, all of Joe Torre's skills at personality massage
won't prevent an implosion in June. And don't think for a second any contrition at his 2009 suspension will prevent Manny
from doing what it is that Manny does when he's unhappy----causing trouble.
With the front office turmoil between the McCourts as they divorce (that's going
to get waaaaayyy worse before it gets better), the Dodgers didn't need to start a war with Scott Boras and Manny, but if the
contract were for a longer duration, more money or both, they'd have to at least consider trying to get out of it. And they
might win.
Diamondbacks pick up Brandon Webb's $8.5 million option:
Webb has been durable and superlative for his whole career. He's still young (30) and had an injured
year that cost the Diamondbacks any chance at contention. Had they declined the option, they still would've had to pay a $2
million buyout, so you're talking about another $6.5 million for a Cy Young Award winner who's also finished as a runner up
for the award twice. A little luck here and there, and he'd have three Cy Young Awards. It's only one more year and if he's
hurt or ineffective, it was worth the risk.
I think the scariest part of this entire article is
the fact that Brad Lidge has "$24.5 million coming to him guaranteed for 2010-2011."
Yikes. Someone's
gettin' the wrong end of that deal, and it ain't Brad Lidge.
The newest crap coming
out of Philadelphia is that Lidge will have his elbow examined and might have "loose bodies" hovering around in
there. If someone there has the audacity to try and explain away Lidge's horrific year on an elbow problem, they'll make Jimmy
Rollins look like Tony Dungy in terms of class.
All along, I thought there was something physically wrong with Lidge; my assumption centered on his knee. Now we're getting
this stuff? If the Phillies knew there was something going on with Lidge's arm at any point and kept running him out there,
letting him blow games and take a beating from all sides, the "loose bodies" in Lidge's elbow aren't the only "loose
bodies" in Philly; someone there has "loose bodies" in their head for continuing to use him. Not only is Lidge
a mental train wreck, he might've been one physically as well.
Midnight Strikes On The Season----And The Wheeling And Dealing Begins....Plus A Little Weed
The trading started fast:
These deals must've been in place before the
World Series celebratory champagne spray had a chance to settle into a stain on the carpet of the Yankees clubhouse. It's
going to be a busy winter. Let's have a look at some of the moves that have already been completed.
Marlins
trade OF Jeremy Hermida to the Red Sox for LHP Hunter Jones and LHP Jose Alvarez:
I like Hermida, but he doesn't profile as the type of player the Red Sox would normally pursue. He strikes out a lot;
doesn't walk all that much; has extra base pop and is an okay player. He'll be 26 early next year and would have use as a
bottom of the lineup bat with some production than a viable replacement for the likes of Jason Bay if he leaves via free agency.
Jones is a big (6'4: 235) lefty who got batted around in a brief big league trial last season. He's also about to turn 26. Having
closed in the minors, the Marlins must see something in Jones that makes them think he could be another power arm out of their
bullpen----they collect them. I've never seen him, so I can only go by his numbers and they're mediocre in the minors.
Alvarez is a little (5'11" 150) lefty whose numbers weren't particularly impressive in the minors as a starter or reliever.
Was this a mutually advantageous deal for both sides?
Was it a salary dump for the Marlins? It doesn't appear that the Red Sox gave up all that much for a player of Hermida's potential
even as he's arbitration eligible and is going to get a big raise from his $2.5 million salary from 2009. More than any other
team, I'd be reluctant to deal with the Marlins. My paranoia would get the better of me in wondering why they wanted a certain
player over another and if they were trying to trick me. They're that skilled at evaluating talent.
As for the Red Sox, it may be time to stop thinking that there's some
brilliant diabolical scheme worthy of a James Bond villain lurking under the surface of everything they do and that they're
right in the muck with the rest of baseball in trying different things occasionally seeing them pay off big, fail miserably
or wind up somewhere in between. "Somewhere in between" is my estimation of the acquisition of Hermida is on the
scale of deals.
White Sox trade INF Chris Getz and 3B Josh Fields to the Royals for OF/INF Mark
Teahen:
Getz has put up solid numbers in the minors and should fill the gaping
hole at second base for the Royals well enough.
To me, Fields was a player who got caught in a numbers game and got screwed by the White Sox. He did everything they
asked of him in 2007 as he replaced the injured Joe Crede, hit 23 homers and played fair defense at third base, then found
himself sent to the minors for most of 2008-2009 because they had nowhere to play him. To put up solid enough numbers with
power and be languishing in the minors at age 26 would sent anyone into a funk. What the Royals intention for Fields is unknown.
Maybe they're going to use him in the outfield.
Teahen is best known for having been part of the 2002 Billy Beane Moneyball draft and that's made him appear to be
a better player than he really is because of the notoriety. Teahen's an okay player. He's versatile, can play first, second,
third and the corner outfield positions and not embarrass himself; he has some extra base and home run power; one would guess
that the White Sox are going to play him at either second or third depending on what other moves they make. Teahen's a player
who's a backup in the event other attempted acquisitions don't come to pass.
This deal is a wash.
Angels re-sign Bobby Abreu
to 2-year, $19 million contract:
Abreu's not stupid.
After the way he was shut out of any and all lucrative, long-term contracts
by last winter's free agent freeze and had to settle for a 1-year, $5 million base, plus incentives (most of which he reached),
he wasn't going to screw around.
There were places where Abreu might have been able to get more money. Depending on what happens with Jason Bay and
Matt Holliday, Abreu could've wound up in Boston, with the Mets; or in St. Louis for an extra year and more money, but why?
The Angels are always contenders; they treat their players right; they're a close-knit group in a pleasurable place in which
to play. Being greedy for more would've been stupid in a personal and business sense for Abreu. It's a good deal for both
sides.
Mets decline the $8 million option on J.J. Putz, but...
The most interesting thing about this decision isn't the declining of the option in and of itself----that
was a no-brainer----but that Putz and his agent have expressed a willingness to return to the Mets at a lower salary and agree
to be Francisco Rodriguez's set-up man without the disillusionment that Putz showed with his role in 2009 before he got hurt.
Could this be posturing to make it look like there's
interest from the Mets to entice another team to ante up more cash? Could it be Putz looking to redeem himself for what he
perceived to be a major letdown for the Mets? Could it be that he wants to replenish his value next year and get a job as
a closer in 2011? Or a combination of all three?
Putz is a very respected, stand-up guy in the clubhouse, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that he feels
the Mets deserve a bit of a break after the way things went so horribly wrong in 2009. Also, there won't be a lot of money
out there for Putz in the free agent market this winter; nor might there be an irresistibly attractive job as a closer anywhere.
Would he really find better circumstances in a place like Detroit than with the Mets?
If I were the Mets, I'd bring Putz back on an incentive-laden deal if
he's reasonable about the numbers.
Speaking of the Mets...
The Mets have cheaper, in-house options to fill their
holes which are more palatable than what's out there in the free agent market. They're lunatics if they really intend to go
with Daniel Murphy as the full time first baseman. I'd bring back Carlos Delgado if he, like Putz, is agreeable to a short-term
contract rife with incentives. Before he got hurt, Delgado didn't seem all that bothered by the vast dimensions of Citi Field
and if he wants another payday as he approaches 40, he'll be motivated to have a big year.
For left field, I've said all along that I'd inquire with the Astros about
the availability of Carlos Lee. If they want to dump his salary, he won't cost much of anything in terms of players----probably
some middling minor leaguers. Short of that, I'd much prefer Jason Bay to Matt Holliday.
Behind the plate, I'd go for Miguel Olivo. He's good with the pitchers;
he's got a shotgun for an arm; he's got power; and he's feisty. The Mets could use some feistiness.
Bolstering the bullpen with Takashi Saito and looking into another big
game type pitcher who'd thrive in New York and in giant Citi Field like Bronson Arroyo is an idea. Joel Piniero also liked
pitching in the cavernous ballpark.
Hypothetically, if the Mets brought in one of the above-mentioned left fielders and re-signed Delgado, their lineup could
rival the Phillies in terms of devastation. In fact, with all those power/on-base guys in front of Jeff Francoeur and with
Bay/Lee behind him, he'd drive in 130 runs and contend for the MVP.
If their luck isn't like that of a bad country or good blues song, the Mets could find themselves right
back in contention next year. The foundation isn't as bad as it's portrayed; nor is the team itself.
Tim Lincecum is arrested on possession of marijuana:
Yeah?
So?
Is anyone
who's actually had a look at Tim Lincecum off the field surprised by this? The guy's a hippie.
The Yankees overpower and outmaneuver the Phillies:
The keys to the Yankees win:Mariano
Rivera; the relentless lineup; the veteran warhorses; money.
Given the way team's
"closers" gacked up so many games for their clubs and ostensibly cost them series wins, there can never be any underestimating
of how important Mariano Rivera has been for the Yankees not just in this post-season, but for his entire career.
It was Rivera who was the key to the first championship
in 1996 in which Joe Torre stumbled onto the winning formula of cutting the games down to a little league style six innings
and handing the game over to Rivera and John Wetteland; it was Rivera's relentless nature and fearlessness in the face of
any and all opposition that carried the Yankees to their four other titles.
While the closer's role is generally defined as more mental than physical, in the big games it
takes someone whose nerves aren't going to get the better of them as they think about things other than the task at hand.
Rivera has the combination of devastating stuff and mental will to be the premier closer not just of this generation, but
in history. He took the ball whenever necessary; he performed past his customary workload; and he got the job done. If you
didn't know it before, you know now----Rivera is the master.
Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher,
Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano were all but non-existent in this series. It took the overlooked veteran Hideki Matsui to cement
his place in Yankees lore with a veteran renaissance as he picked his club on his back and carried them to the title. What
made the Yankees lineup so impossible to deal with wasn't the stack of stars that come at the opposing pitchers in waves;
by the time the series had advanced to games 5 and beyond, I doubt the Phillies were overly concerned about the aforementioned
players who hit as if they were in a fog; it was Matsui that they feared because of his clutch bat and power.
Even with the changes that have altered the facing of the Yankees from the time of their dynasty until
now----gone are manager Joe Torre; the coaching staff; Tino Martinez, David Wells, Paul O'Neill, David Cone, etc----it was
the remaining veterans from those years, specifically Derek Jeter, Rivera and Andy Petttitte who carried their club through
to their long-sought return to baseball's promised land.
For all the talk of clubs needing to get "younger and more athletic" to compete in today's
game, there still has to be a veteran presence and calm to lead those inexperienced and, let's be honest, frightened players
through and show how it's done in the playoffs. No one exemplifies that better than Jeter, Rivera and Pettitte. Age and stats
need to be discounted in certain cases and the Yankees warhorses proved it again.
You
keep hearing Yankee fans complaining about the repeated mentioning of money as an all-important factor in their victory. I
understand that in the hangover of achieving that which has eluded them for nine years, they don't want to hear any caveats
or negativity, but discounting the way money fixed the 2009 Yankees is absurd.
We saw what happened as GM Brian Cashman went stat zombie in trying to save money
(that wasn't even his) and garner credit for himself in 2008. They inserted inexperienced and limited entities into roles
they were neither ready, nor had the aptitude for and missed the playoff entirely; and when I say "inexperienced and
limited" that's not relegated to the players----manager Joe Girardi falls into that category as well.
In addition to the veterans that carried the Yankees through, they wouldn't
have gotten this far had they not flung big money at each and every one of their holes in a desperate attempt to get their
angry fan base to forget the lost year of 2008. No other club in baseball----and that includes the Red Sox, Mets and Dodgers----could
have signed the best hitter on the market (Mark Teixeira); the best pitcher on the market (C.C. Sabathia); a talented, but
flighty roll of the dice (A.J. Burnett); and traded for a limited, useful and overpaid bat (Nick Swisher).
These are facts.
Unlike others, I don't see anything wrong with spending money to fill holes. Why hang onto it if it's
available? But to dismiss it as irrelevant is just as nonsensical as saying it was the only reason for the win. Money can't
buy championships, but it helps a lot.
The keys to the Phillies loss: the bullpen; the lefty-heavy
lineup; strange managerial machinations; the starting pitching.
They stickhandled their
way around an atrocious and mentally fried bullpen because: A) they hit their way past them and, B) other teams' bullpens
were in fact worse. But the Yankees had the advantage once it got into the ninth inning and were trotting Rivera to the mound
and the Phillies were scrambling to find someone who wouldn't curl up into the fetal position and start sobbing if they walked
a guy.
As great as Brad Lidge was in
2008, he was equally hideous in 2009. He danced through the raindrops in the first two rounds against the Rockies and Dodgers,
always hair-trigger and on the verge of another meltdown sending him back into his tailspin. It happened in the only World
Series game in which he saw action, game 4 and he was shot for the rest of the series. No team can function like that especially
if their biggest bat, Ryan Howard, is in such a hopeless slump against lefties that he might as well have gone up there batting
righty since he couldn't have done any worse.
The rest of the bullpen was all over the place as well from Chad Durbin (who had his career year in 2008 and has reverted
to the journeyman he is), to Ryan Madson. With their starting pitching wobbly, the bullpen was the key for the Phillies and
they failed.
It took all season for the predominately left-handed hitting lineup to
catch up to them but it finally did. Chase Utley was a one-man-gang against pitchers from both sides, but Ryan Howard was
about as bad as bad gets this whole series; utterly helpless against any and all lefties. Shane Victorino did little of value;
Raul Ibanez had a moment here and there; and Jimmy Rollins? My God. For someone who yaps as much as he does, he cannot be
as terrible as he was. Can-not.
Did Charlie Manuel
think that last night's game was a meaningless inter-league matchup in June in which he needed to get a look at what Pedro
Martinez had left and whether to count on him for important innings in September and October?
Given how weak Pedro's stuff was, it's a miracle that he only allowed
4 runs in his 4 innings. What was Manuel waiting for? Did he want Pedro to blow the game up and put it totally out of reach
before he went to J.A. Happ or anyone else to try and stop the bleeding? It's hard to criticize a manager who won
the World Series last year and got his team back to the big dance this year, but sometimes the decisions Manuel made aren't
just head-scratchers, they're insane. How did he not have anyone warming up after Pedro gave up the homer to Matsui?
One gigantic mistake Manuel made was to keep Utley
and Howard back-to-back in the lineup. With the way Jayson Werth has been raking for pretty much this whole season, the smart
move would've been to insert Werth in between Utley and Howard. And I don't want to hear any of this nonsense to the tune
of "this is what got us here". It's crap. The lefty-righty stuff would have been more of a risk-reward thought for
the Yankees had Werth been in between Utley and Howard. Status quo was a big mistake.
I still believe it was a good move to save Cliff Lee for game 5. Joe Blanton pitched as well as could be expected in
game 4 and the game was lost late. As for Cole Hamels, he was awful and the Phillies having to rely on Pedro for two of the
six games was a major factor in their demise. At this point in his career, Pedro had delivered above-and-beyond what could
reasonably be expected from a declining superstar just hanging on.
Moving forward for both
clubs:
The Yankees:
Don't be surprised to see Cashman try and move Jorge Posada. Posada's defense had become heinous; the
pitchers hate him; and he's looked very, very old in recent weeks. He's also making a lot of money ($26 million over the next
two years) and has a no-trade clause, so don't expect him to be dealt. If he stays, the Yankees are going to have to work
out this problem with the pitchers, especially A.J. Burnett. At this point, Posada's going to get worse, not better, but they're
stuck with him. Like a nasty, pretty girl who loses her looks as she ages and grows intolerable, it's getting harder to overlook
Posada's contentiousness as he becomes a liability on and off the field.
There's debate on what they're going to do with the free agents Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui. If it was me, I'd keep
Matsui as the DH and find another left fielder. No one knows what Cashman wants to do, but I would think that Matsui would
be more agreeable to a short-term contract than Damon would and that could be the arbiter between the two and whom to keep.
The Yankees problems in finding a fourth starter didn't cost them in the
post-season, but they can't continue down this road. Phil Hughes is not a reliever and I'd think he'll be in the starting
rotation next year, full time. And what are they doing with Joba Chamberlain? If they continue with the misguided "Joba
as a starter" charade, all they're going to do is get the guy hurt. I'd put him in the bullpen already and be done with
it, but the way the Yankees have been so obstinate with Chamberlain, expect him to be a starter next year----to his and the
club's detriment.
The Phillies:
All the talk of a "dynasty"
has disappeared as the Phillies holes were exposed so effectively by the Yankees. The Phillies are so despised around the
National League that every other team is going to take joy in knocking them on their asses next year.
Jimmy Rollins is going to rapidly get worse. A player who has so little
plate discipline and is so invested in being at the center of everything is doomed to fall----fast. I have no idea where Rollins
was going when he stole second in the top of the seventh down 7-3; and he was almost out. With the middle of that lineup coming
up and down four runs? Has Rollins lost his mind?
When you have a player who swings at anything and everything; is so overly impressed with himself that he says the
stupid things that Rollins does; and is clearly diminishing as a player, the pitchers around the league know about it. The
more aggressive he becomes trying to live up to his mouth, the fewer pitches to hit Rollins will see and he'll become an overpaid,
loudmouthed journeyman. The process has been going on for awhile now and the skid down the hill can't be stopped. It's unavoidable
and Rollins's mouth is exacerbating matters with the other players.
No one's taking Brad
Lidge's contract even with the potential of a repeat of 2008 in another venue. He's got $24.5 million coming to him guaranteed
for 2010-2011. His mental state and the health of his knee would be the main concerns for me, but the Phillies aren't going
to have much of a choice but to go with him as their closer next year. I'd expect a good comeback year from Lidge as long
as the charming Philly fans don't place him into a greater mental funk from the start.
Raul Ibanez's weak second half would worry me. He did very little after his massive first half and it could've been the National
League pitchers getting wind of how to pitch him and are exploiting his weaknesses. He's not young, either.
The lineup is secondary to the problems on the mound
for the Phillies. Had they managed to squeak through and win the World Series, the Cole Hamels comments would easily have
been forgotten during the celebration----more so if Hamels pitched game 7 and pitched well. Now that they lost, this isn't
going to go away; it will linger not just on radio talk shows, but in the Phillies clubhouse and it's going to be
a problem. J.A. Happ looked scared to death every time he pitched in the post-season; Jamie Moyer's probably done. After Cliff
Lee, they're somewhat short in starting pitching even if Kyle Drabek arrives and develops.
The Phillies window is closing. They're not just dealing with their internal issues, but the rest of the league loathes
them; the Braves are going to be very good next year; and the Mets can't have everything go as badly for them in
2010 as they did in 2009----it's impossible; plus the Marlins are tough.
Don't expect to see the Phillies here again next year as backbiting and infighting
sabotages the remnants of their championship team.
As little as I want to hear the Yankees and their
fans crowing all winter, at least they beat the Phillies who will have their downfall far sooner than anyone expected. It's
the lesser of two evils for the Mets fan.
Hamels Deserves A Pass For Saying Something Stupid
A total overreaction to frustration:
Does Cole Hamels probably really wish
this season was over?
Yes. I think it's
likely that he does. But that doesn't mean his frustrated statements after his game 3 shelling reflect the type of competitor
he is. The main statement that was grabbed and treated like a national tragedy was the following:
"I
can't wait for it to end."
"It's
been mentally draining. At year's end, you just can't wait for a fresh start."
I don't think people realize that when an athlete has just had a bad game and gets back to the safety of the lockerroom,
the last thing he wants to do is discuss, deconstruct, explain and answer the same questions repeatedly as to why he was so
bad. I don't care who it is-----Derek Jeter, David Cone, Joe Torre, whoever-----even if they handle the press deftly, smoothly
and fairly, they're going to have moments where they say something they'd rather take back if they talk long enough.
Believe it or not, even I lose my prodigious temper
every once in awhile and say or do something stupid.
To think that Hamels is ready to call it a season on his team and teammates----especially after
the guy won the MVP of both the NLCS and the World Series last year----is silly. He's had a bad year; he's struggled mightily
in the playoffs; and his team is on the brink of losing the World Series in large part because of him. I tend to think that
would light someone's fuse when they're goaded and antagonized for long enough.
With the Phillies pitching so questionable, they're not going to have a choice but
to ignore any issues with Hamels's mindset and let him pitch if they get to game 7. If that happens, he'll have a short leash
(as any pitcher in a game 7 will have) and they'll hope they get the Hamels from the 2008 playoffs rather than what he's been
for most of this season.
The Brett Myers-Cole
Hamels confrontation(?):
There are conflicting reports as to what really happened between Myers and Hamels as the Phillies were leaving the clubhouse
after game 5. Some have said that Myers made a comment to Hamels along the lines of, "what are you doing here, I thought
you quit", to which Hamels responded with a cuss.
The Phillies are denying any rift between Hamels and the other players and are saying the reporters
misunderstood the way the players address one another in jest.
Either explanation is feasible. What casual fans don't realize is that this stuff goes on between teammates
all year long; along with shouting/shoving matches and out-and-out fistfights, it's par for the course.
We all know Myers's history and he's not the brightest
guy in the world, so I wouldn't put it past him to say something of that nature to Hamels in front of reporters. Of course
it would've been better to confront a teammate about something he'd said or done privately, but impulse control and thinking
have never been Myers's strong suits.
I have no idea what really happened, but if the Phillies win tonight and get the series to a game 7 and Hamels pitches well
in game 7, all that happened due to tension and stress will be forgotten.
The Pirates way of doing things:
Say this for the Pittsburgh Pirates: they have a unique
style of running their club.
Not that
that's a good thing, but it is what it is.
The Pirates traded reliever Jesse Chavez to the Rays for infielder Akinori Iwamura.
What the Pirates need with Akinori Iwamura is the question of the day.
And it's one of those questions that you'd have to climb to the top of a high mountain in Tibet to consult with a wise man
to learn the answers to all questions of life and he'd stroke his beard, look at you, frown, shake his head and shrug saying,
"damned if I know."
Iwamura is a useful player on a good team. He can play second and third base; he can run (at least before his knee injury
that almost cost him all of 2009); he plays hard; and his teammates like him. He's also about to turn 31; is making over $4
million next year; strikes out a lot; is coming back from the aforementioned knee injury; and he's going to the Pirates.
For what possible reason do the Pirates need a 31-year-old
second baseman who's overpaid and returning from injury? And to trade a power arm like Chavez for him?
Why?
They did the same thing last winter as they signed Eric Hinske and Ramon Vazquez----moves that made
absolutely no sense whatsoever for a team like the Pirates. Did they want another over-30 infielder to go along with Vazquez?
Iwamura's not a journeyman like Vazquez, but he's useless to the Pirates.
Chavez has an arm out of the bullpen that can blow away hitters. There were times
I watched Chavez come into games and the hitters were literally overmatched. Why trade him? And if they were intent
on trading him, why for Iwamura?
What are the Pirates?
Are they rebuilding
with youth as was the obvious intention when they traded away every single last one of their veteran players for youth? Are
they bringing in veterans to influence the young players positively? Or are the just throwing stuff at the wall with no plan,
no reason, no nothing to make it look like they're doing something and only succeeding in increasing the evidence of their
cluelessness? Is this a form of total organizational anarchy by design?
The decisions that were made last winter----Hinske and Vazquez----were acquisitions for a team on the
verge of contention who needed to bring in bench players who had some use. Then the mid-season trades of Nate McLouth, Adam
LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez and Nyjer Morgan were a housecleaning to the bare bones of youth. Now, they've acquired Iwamura. Is
this part of some grand scheme? Or is it a deranged and haphazard bit of purposeful lunacy?
To make things worse, they have a young player in Delwyn Young who can
play second base and deserves at least a chance to play every day. Why not give him a shot instead of trading for another
30-something that they're only going to trade sometime next season?
The Pirates organization is so totally inept that no matter what they do, it's not
going to work. They run their club like a ne'er-do-well 20-something who has nothing else to do with himself, so his family
gives him a toy to try and get him motivated.
They're a mess.
They don't deserve
to have fans come and watch them and, conveniently, the numbers of people who are willing to invest anything emotionally in
such a team is dwindling to the point where they should seriously consider just shutting the doors. Financial disparity is
no excuse for ridiculous management and it's a trend with the Pirates. They lose and lose for no reason other than that they're
fools.
You had a few hilarious lines in this one...."a
bullpen that resembles a group therapy session in 'Fight Club.'....'beatifically happy like Eliot Spitzer at a high-class
whorehouse.'" Good work! I agree about the Yankees pitching situation. It's not Girardi's fault that he wasn't given
a #4 starter. It's Cashman's. Chad Gaudin was never the answer.
Oh, even I get
in the zone sometimes. I don't know if people realize what a compliment it is that Jane thinks I have a modicum of talent.
She's a real writer. Like me. Only successful.
One of the reasons I picked against the Phillies in both the NLDS and the NLCS----the main reason----is
their unsettled situation at closer. Given how horrific Brad Lidge was this entire season, and how he's a mentally fragile
and skittish train wreck when one thing doesn't go according to plan, there was no reason to believe that he'd be able to
regain any semblance of the form that was the main factor in the Phillies championship in 2008. The other options weren't
any better.
Ryan Madson? Great
stuff, prone to the home run ball.
Chan
Ho Park? It's a roll of the dice with a veteran who's never closed before.
Scott Eyre? Gutty and more useful against righties than he was ever given credit for, but he's got
elbow issues and is openly talking of retirement after the season.
Brett Myers? He's done the job before as closer, liked it and was pretty good at it; also gets touched
up by the home run ball and doesn't appear back to 100% after surgery for a torn hip labrum.
Chad Durbin? No.
Phillies manager Charlie Manuel had little choice but to use Lidge and hope that he'd have one of his
streaks in which he was performing physically and able to maintain his sanity to get on another roll. It worked in rounds
1 and 2; it's not working now.
After Johnny Damon fought, battled and clawed his way on base against Lidge in game 4----an achievement that led directly
to the Yankees win----Lidge came apart. It wasn't simply the hits he allowed to Alex Rodriguez or Jorge Posada; it was his
vapor locking on an elementary play that he should've known was his responsibility in covering third on Damon's steal
of second; it was the look on his face that his world was collapsing after this one hiccup.
One would think that a pitcher of Lidge's talents and accomplishments
would be able to recover from one bad game, but he goes into a tailspin whenever something like this occurs. It led to his
trade from Astros and it's resulted in the Phillies current circumstances in the late innings where they have to piece everything
together and hope to hold on.
Not only
was Madson used to close the game last night (he performed a high-wire act himself), but Myers was warming up in front of
Lidge in case Madson blew up completely. They've made it to game 6 of the World Series on the backs of their offense and Cliff
Lee. Somehow, some way, they've got to piece it together to win two more games at Yankee Stadium with a bullpen that resembles
a group therapy session in Fight Club more than a battle-tested defending champion. My advice would be to score as
often as possible to keep the game out of the hands of their relievers----and even that might not be enough.
What options did the Yankees have for starting pitching?
When the decision was made to go with a three-man starting rotation for the playoffs, there was always this underlying risk
that they'd have to deal with C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte running out of gas if they were extended further
than expected. The panic and second-guessing shouldn't be as intense as it is now.
The Yankees made this mess when they instituted the ridiculous Joba Rules/JOBA
RUINATION on Joba Chamberlain with the ill-thought-out attempts to make him a viable starter while keeping him in an airtight
sarcophagus not to keep him healthy, but to avoid criticism if he got hurt. Becuase of that, he was not an option to start
a fourth game. They made this mess by trading for Chad Gaudin rather than a playoff-tested and gutty Bronson Arroyo to take
a fourth start if necessary. The issue should've been addressed as soon as Chien-Ming Wang was out for the season. It wasn't.
They're in this circumstance now because of Brian Cashman's attempts to overthink and accrue credit for himself.
The idea that the extra work affected Burnett
last night is questionable at best. Even when Burnett had his full complement of rest, was working with his catcher of choice
and was beatifically happy like Eliot Spitzer at a high-class whorehouse, there was never any way of determining which Burnett
would show up. Is it the Burnett who blew away the Twins and Phillies? Or is it the Burnett who got attacked by the Angels
and Phillies like he'd peed on their post-game food spread? It just so happened that last night was the "bad" Burnett.
His velocity was good, the Phillies adjusted their approach and didn't let Burnett get ahead in the count to whip in that
nasty curve. It had little, if anything, to do with rest or a lack thereof.
They're not going to start anyone other than Pettitte and Sabathia in games
6 and 7 because they can't start anyone else. Chad Gaudin isn't going to see the mound except in an emergency. This
is what the Yankees have, win or lose. If Pettitte and Sabathia are exhausted and collapse right before the finish line and
the Yankees lose, the blame won't be on the players, but the front office for creating this mess in the first place.
One major concern for the Yankees in games 6 and 7 (if necessary):
Ryan Howard has been so rotten that he couldn't have done much worse against lefty pitchers if he decided----mid-World
Series----to give switch-hitting a try and went up there batting right-handed. This has saved the Yankees to some degree because
Howard has killed so many potential rallies with strikeouts. On the other hand, eventually someone's going to pay if Howard
wakes up at the wrong time. If it happens in game 6 and 7 (if necessary), he could demolish a game all by himself. Then the
Yankees are going to have a problem. They'd better score and score early against the Phillies starting pitchers to mitigate
any Howard-bust out.
Much ado about nothing with Cole Hamels's comments:
Cole Hamels's whiny statement to the tune of "I can't wait for this season to be over" has gotten a lot of
play and great concern as to the struggling pitcher's mental state. I think he was speaking out of frustration at the questions
regarding his health; how tired he is after his workload over the past two years; that he's repeatedly falling apart in the
middle-innings; and looks ready to cry at any adversity.
The Phillies have to trust Hamels in game 7 one way or the other and hope for the best. Game 7s are no time to wait for a
pitcher to find himself, so if Hamels is pitching poorly his season will be over pretty quickly anyway. Now's not the time
to dissect, analyze and deconstruct any player based on knee-jerk responses to the same questions over and over again.
When the Mets ran New York:
If anything brings back memories of the glory-filled 1980s for Mets fans it's the return to the moderate
spotlight of former Yankeeüber prospect Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens as the new hitting coach
for the San Francisco Giants----ESPN Story.
Much like the glory days of the early
part of the 20th century when the Jew gangsters controlled New York, such was the case as the Mets ran the place. Year-after-year
the Yankees----struggling to keep pace and remove the shackles of mismanagement and disarray and mask the laughingstock they
were----tried to create an aura of building from within and competence. No player exemplified this more than Meulens.
From the nickname, Bam Bam; to the stories of his
mythic power; to the anticipation of a home-grown slugger of their very own to compete with the growing legend of Darryl Strawberry
across town, there was no way for Meulens to live up to the hype especially since he wasn't that good to begin with. He did
receive a chance to play for the Yankees and did absolutely nothing----stats.
That he's back and expected to
be a savior for the hitting woes of the Giants is bringing me back to those years. The Giants had better hope there isn't
a similar result for them with Meulens as there was for the 80s Yankees.
Sorry you
got screamed at by your coach. I would have started sobbing. It does seem elementary that when you put a shift on like that,
SOMEBODY has to cover third, presumably the pitcher. Also, in the pre-game on Fox, they were talking about Hamels saying he
can't wait till the season is over. If true, I'm sure that didn't go over well in the clubhouse.
I never minded getting yelled at. I can take screaming if I deserved it; I wouldn't take abuse. Plus,
it helped my state of mind because it showed at least they were paying attention.
That team was filled with a bunch of characters. There were two drug dealers; several
petit criminals; a couple of pot/acid addicts; one guy who'd inhabited the persona of Will Clark straight down to the scowl;
a 25-year-old who refused to accept the fact it was time to move on with his life and leave college after seven years; another
who insisted on trying to screw his teammates' girlfriends and kept getting beaten up for it----and me.
There was one incident where I arrived at winter workouts on time, but
just a tad late to witness what had happened the previous day. Our loud-mouthed catcher was already sheepishly walking up
to the front of the gathered group with hands in his pockets and a look of contrived contrition on his face; the players were
seated on the gym floor and listening to his apology for a verbal and near-physical confrontation with one of the student
coaches.
I had no clue what was
going on, so I had the now-customary bewildered look on my face, neatly combined with a half-smirk, I looked at the other
guys with the rapid head swivel of a confused owl. One-by-one my eyes locked with the others; one-by-one, they saw me and
covered their faces with their gloves to keep from laughing and making things worse.
The faux apologetic catcher himself later said, "I saw Lebowitz laughing
and couldn't keep a straight face."
I wasn't laughing; I just didn't know what the hell was going on.
Not much has changed.
After practice, we all walked into the locker room. I gently placed my glove and equipment on a bench and grandly queried,
"Okay fuckers, what the hell happened?"
Aside from one or two decisions that could've been quibbled with, Yankees manager Joe Girardi had his second straight
solid game running his club and has them on the brink of a World Series win.
He rode his starter C.C. Sabathia as far into the game as he felt he could go
before Chase Utley again took Sabathia deep; he trusted Damaso Marte; he made the gutsy decision to switch the eighth inning
role from Phil Hughes to Joba Chamberlain; and he allowed Johnny Damon to steal in the ninth inning in a bandbox ballpark
with the power hitters at the plate.
I said at the time that I would've left Sabathia in to pitch to Ryan Howard even after Utley's homer. It has to do
with stature and salary and that I do not trust Marte to maintain his level of good work even though he's always handled Howard.
(Howard's never gotten a hit off of Marte and has now struck out five times in six at bats.) Sabathia's the man, the big money
guy and he's the one I'd trust. Eventually, Howard is going to get to Marte. That said, it worked. Marte struck Howard out
and made him look terrible in doling it.
The Chamberlain move to pitch the eighth inning with a one-run lead was curious and ripe for second guessing. There are two
schools of thought. One, Hughes was the eighth inning guy all season long and to make the change now could be seen as panicky----you
ride the boat that carried you sink or swim; two, Hughes has been struggling, but so has Chamberlain. I would've stayed with
Hughes; Chamberlain blew away the first two hitters before Pedro Feliz too him deep; it's nitpicking to give Girardi a hard
time for the decision even though Chamberlain gave up that homer.
Johnny Damon's steal of second and third on the same play was the game-breaker. In that Phillies ballpark,
I might've played it safe and, at most, put on a hit-and-run with Mark Teixeira in case he hit one into the gap. Allowing
Damon to steal won the game for the Yankees.
The Damon steals:
I've never seen that before in my life and the fault for Damon being able to swipe third on that play falls on Brad
Lidge, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel and his coaches.
If a club is putting on such an exaggerated shift in which the third baseman is covering second on a steal, the pitcher
must, must, must, must have it drilled into his head that as soon as the throw goes through to second, he has to
take off to cover third.
There's no excuse.
Lidge's mental fragility and implosions as soon as one little thing goes wrong can't come into play when keeping his mind
on what he's supposed to be doing. I'm all for coddling a player to get the best out of him----to a point----but it's as if
they're treading lightly around Lidge to keep him from collapsing into the fetal position and sobbing uncontrollably. It was
inexplicable.
The only thing I could
think of when I saw that was when I was in college and we were in the gym during winter drills, working on various bunting
situations. All the pitchers would take turns going to the mound, the coach would call a specific numbered play where
we'd either cover third, go after the ball, cover first, etc. Three times in a row, he called the same number in which I was
supposed to cover third...and three times in a row I screwed it up. After the third time, he lit into me:
"HOW MANY MORE TIMES DO WE HAFTA RUN THAT PLAY BEFORE YOU GET IT RIGHT?!? THAT'S THE
FIFTH TIME YOU'VE FUCKED IT UP, LEBOWITZ!!!!! GET YOUR FUCKIN' HEAD OUTTA YOUR ASS!!!!!
This coach was not a screamer unless he got frustrated to the point where he exploded. (I did have some use in that regard.) And this was a person who liked me. (There's no accounting for taste.) In
retrospect, it was for the best that I didn't point out that it was the third time I'd screwed it up, not the fifth. Everyone
was standing around, trying not to laugh; I pawed at the gym floor with my foot, hands on my hips and head tilted, looking
sheepish. I didn't know whether to laugh or cry.
My turn came up again, he called the same play and I got it right. Hallelujah.
It did show the value of one thing that I've carried through since----the value
of screaming like a raving lunatic. It works surprisingly well.
The Philles weren't throwing
at ARod:
Alex Rodriguez thought the Phillies were throwing at him and the umpires
were concerned enough about the escalating tensions that after ARod was hit again in the first inning, they issued warnings
to both benches.
I can totally
understand where ARod was coming from in believing he was a target. If a pitcher is trying to hit a batter, he throws to the
exact spots where ARod's gotten hit----the back and ribs. That said, I think the Phillies were trying to pitch ARod inside
and high and their control was off. If pitchers pitch inside, they're going to hit batters once in awhile.
The strategy of busting ARod in high and tight has precedence. If you
remember the 1999 ALCS when ARod was with the Mariners, Roger Clemens fired a 98-mph fastball at ARod's head in the first
inning of his masterful and dominating 1-hit shutout in game 4. ARod was shaken up and a non-factor for the rest of that game.
That's how ARod must be pitched to stop him.
Brushing him back makes sense; throwing at him to hit him doesn't. The Phillies are loud, but they're not stupid. They weren't
trying to hit ARod.
Well, it's offensive
anyway:
Derek Jeter deserves
almost all the credit he gets for his intelligence; his leadership; the way he plays the game and comports himself as a professional
at all times, but that shouldn't translate into undeserved awards. That's exactly what happened though as the Hank Aaron Award
winners were announced yesterday.
Albert
Pujols won in the National League, as he should've; Jeter won in the American League, which is absurd.
The award is voted on by the media and fans. According to Wikipedia, the fans vote counts for 30% of the vote. The only way that Jeter won this award over Joe Mauer is if a conspiracy between
ballot-box stuffing fans and Michael Kay was completed with greater diabolical skill than the elections in Afghanistan and
Iran combined. Apart from that, there's no explanation.
Jeter had a great year, but even he knows he didn't deserve the award in comparison to Mauer.
Thank
goodness that sombrero thing has been straightened out once and for all. Now I can sleep at night! I was very surprised by
the turn around with Hamels last night. He looked unhittable - and was - for three innings. Then he unraveled. Pitchers fascinate
me.
I wouldn't go so far to say that it's straightened out. People in general
don't listen to me until it's too late, if then.
With Hamels, people keep talking about how tough the Phillies are, but both Hamels and Lidge unravel on and off the
field at the slightest pushback. This should be a lesson to the Mets that they need to shove the Phillies back with force
next year; like most bullies, the Phillies are showing evidence that they cower and collapse when challenged.
I will spread the word as soon as this hangover goes
away. Speaking of which, they had the game going at the bar last night and I quickly remembered how blindly idiotic the masses
are. By the 9th inning, in Chicago bar, suddenly I'm surrounded by an influx of Yankees fans? Please. I know that winning
can be infectious, but Chicago let me down last night.
If it was a Cubs bar,
you can understand the need to cheer at some team doing something positive. This type of series with two teams that
are so despised can forge strange alliances and allegiances. I certainly don't want to hear Yankee crap all winter long, but
the sight of those despicable Phillies fans on the verge of tears and/or slitting their wrists created a smile bigger than
anything not involving a positive outcome for the Mets or a real (or moderately) good woman----and that's up for debate as
well.
Even when Yankees manager Joe Girardi does the
right things, he gets attacked.
Aside
from not sending pitching coach Dave Eiland to give Andy Pettitte a breather during his tough bottom of the second----especially
after he walked Jimmy Rollins with the bases loaded to walk in a run----what did Girardi do that was so questionable last
night?
He stuck with Pettitte,
trusting his pitcher's veteran instincts to carry him through; he went back to Nick Swisher in right field and Swisher busted
out with a double and a homer; he's made it clear he's trusting Damaso Marte as the primary lefty out of the bullpen and Marte's
getting the job done; he gave Joba Chamberlain another shot out of the bullpen----possibly a questionable decision----but
Chamberlain had a solid 1-2-3 inning; he deployed the deadly lefty bat of Hideki Matsui as a pinch-hitter at exactly the right
time and Matsui homered; and he tried to stay away from Mariano Rivera in the ninth with a four-run lead, saw Phil Hughes
give up a homer and went to Rivera to get the save. To me, that wasn't a "by-the-book" use Rivera only in a save
situation maneuver by Girardi, it was the right thing to do given the situation to try and rest his closer but use him when
needed. Rivera had a cushy two out save and shouldn't be affected adversely for tonight.
What's the problem?
I don't like the haphazard way Girardi manages; nor do I like his defensive explanations after the
fact; but I'm not picking on the man just for the sake of it. Last night, he had a good game and his team won. There's no
reason to quibble with him at least for one night.
Is
Cole Hamels's problem his workload, his location, or both?
Everything's relative.
The paranoid stat zombies who are so obsessed with pitch/innings-counts to the detriment of pitcher development will
no doubt have a field day at Cole Hamels's struggles. There's anecdotal evidence for the assertion that he's overworked as
he falls apart when he reaches the middle innings in a big chunk of his starts, but there could be other factors at play with
him.
In the year following
his heaviest workload at age 24, Hamels keeps hitting the same speed bump and toppling backwards over and over again. In the
Phillies World Series run of 2008, Hamels threw over 260 inning, many of them high-pressure and tough. While he appears to
be healthy, his location is off and it's costing him dearly.
Which is it?
Is his location just not right because, well, because?
Is the work diminishing his command just that tiny bit where he's giving up homers instead of pop ups?
Is he tipping his pitches as was alleged in the NLCS?
Or is it a combination of everything?
The accumulation of work is something that's hard
to quantify if the velocity is normal; the pitches are moving; and the player is healthy, but something's causing Hamels to
run out of gas in the middle innings and to degenerate from world-beater into a frustrated and hittable bit of mediocrity.
It could be the smallest thing that's causing him to miss that critical inch to get his pitches where he wants them and it's
a good chance the workload is the proximate cause.
Neither he nor the Phillies would trade the championship from 2008 for anything. They wouldn't have won without Hamels last
year. But he's slightly off and it's quite possible that the stress from 2008 is affecting him now in imperceptible ways.
The hitters are perceiving it though and Hamels and the Phillies are being punished as a result.
Managerial candidate----Pete Mackanin:
Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin was interviewed during the Fox broadcast
of game 2 and it reminded me of what a qualified and under-the-radar baseball guy he is.
Mackanin has managed in the minors for 14 years; he's been a big league
coach and interim manager with the Pirates and Reds, handling both jobs well; and is at an age, 58, where he deserves a full-time
shot as a manager. The Washington Nationals would be a perfect spot for Mackanin to get a well-earned chance to run his own
club as a field boss.
I hate losing Matsui's bat, but he can hardly walk,
let alone run, so putting him in left field wouldn't be a good idea. Not only would he be a defensive liability, but he could
hurt himself even more. Also, having him come off the bench is very appealing.
I think Jane would be a better manager than Girardi. And I mean it.
Franklin Rabon writes RE the debate of the meaning of
the "sombreros":
Hey Paul,
Just a quick comment to say I agree
with the 3K's = hat trick, 4K's = Sombrero, 5K's = golden sombrero. That's what I was taught as a kid and heard all
the way through high school.
I had one sombrero and one golden sombrero in high school. My only saving
grace was in the golden sombrero game I got a hit and we had another guy who struck out six times, which our coach
called the platinum sombrero. The guy was called "plat" for the rest of the season. What's even worse
about a golden sombrero game, in high school, is that in order to get that many ABs, it means that the rest of your team is
hitting very well. In my golden sombrero game we scored 14 runs.
I kinda remembered the meaning being something different from today's prevalent belief of the terms, but hadn't bothered to
check. I'd trust an old-school baseball guy like Keith Hernandez than the new age way the term has been bastardized like it
was part of some slumber party game of telephone.
I can't remember if I ever gave anyone the sombrero in any connotation when I was pitching; I'm pretty sure I hat tricked
a few guys in between having them knock me off the mound with line drives. One thing about my hitting----I always made contact.
It may not have gone particularly far, but I had the hand-eye coordination to hit the ball.
I had several nicknames when I was playing and it wasn't just the easy
"Lebo" or "Leeb". One memorable one was "The Mess"; another was "Flake".
Not much has changed in the intervening years.
I think we have to take back the
terms regarding the "sombreros" because everyone's had it wrong for years and it's enough. Spread the word.
