Perhaps Karim Garcia/Shane Spencer would've
been better options:
What's most amazing to me about the fallout of the Jason Bay agreement with the Mets is how the same people who are so enamored
of Billy Beane and the Moneyball lot that they dole out credit for such non-moves as the A's signing of Coco Crisp or the
Red Sox choice of Mike Cameron over Bay, yet treat the Mets necessary signing of a power bat to man left field as if they
just signed Julio Lugo to a $36 million contract. (Oh wait, it was Theo Epstein the "genius" who did that, wasn't
it?)
There were the usual suspects
like Keith Law and Rob Neyer who were in love with Bay when Theo Epstein traded from him to replace Manny Ramirez and he exploded
like he'd been let out of prison (and he was in prison; he played for the Pirates), but he's suddenly and miraculously lost
his luster now that he's about to be a Met.
Here are the main quotes I found about Bay and the Mets from Joel Sherman from this column:
The Red Sox were worried about how Bay would hold up over four years, with particular
worry about his shoulders.
I've been waiting for an answer to this question
for two days and no one's come up with anything that makes even the least amount of sense. If the Red Sox were so worried
about the condition of Bay's shoulders, then why did they offer him 4-years and $60 million guaranteed? The one answer I got
was that the Mets offered an easily achievable vesting option for a fifth year that pushed the deal up to $80 million and
the Red Sox were reluctant to do the same.
So, what you're telling me is that the Red Sox----$36 million for Lugo; $51 million posting money for Daisuke Matsuzaka----are
suddenly concerned about one year from Jason Bay? The fifth year after which they'd
have been stuck with him for four full, guaranteed years? With the amount of money they threw away on Lugo and Edgar Renteria,
was the prospect of a fifth year for Bay via an option such a deal-breaker?
Why make the offer to begin with? Why not make an offer of 3-years, $45 million, designed to fail,
so they could have Bay reject it and move on? It sure seemed like the Red Sox wanted him back; now the hindsight and endless
complaining are trying to justify the decision with cryptic references to his physical condition. I look at the game totals
from his stats and all I see is a player who wants to play and wants to play every day.
In Boston, Bay was protected
defensively by the Green Monster. Now, as in his Pittsburgh days, Bay will have to deal with one of the largest left fields
in the majors, and he is a conservative fielder with an iffy arm and lacking speed; and the physical shortcomings should worsen
during his age 31-34 seasons.
We're not going to hear the end of the horror
stories of Bay's defense. Left field in Citi Field is a large expanse, but he's going to be flanked by a Gold Glove center
fielder with great range in Carlos Beltran; Beltran's got Jeff Francoeur----a defensive kamikaze----in right field; they'll
be able to cover for Bay enough that it's not going to be as much of a nightmare as is portrayed. Is he ever going to be Barry
Bonds circa 1993 out there? No, but will he catch the balls he can get to? Yes. Will he try? Yes. If the Mets position him
correctly and pay attention to fundamentals with the cut-off men being where they're supposed to be, how much of an issue
is Bay's defense really going to be as long as he hits?
While I've been mostly against the shifting of players to first base as the landing spot for the immobile and defensively
inept, Bay is a guy that could move to first base in the last year or two of his contract if his defense becomes untenable.
This is not something I'd worry about to
the degree it's being discussed.
The Mets should have spread the Bay money on one-year
contracts to multiple players to provide better quality depth around Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, David Wright, K-Rod and Santana
— while hoping the quintet was healthy and productive.
"The Mets
should've spread the Bay money on one-year contracts to multiple players"?
Like who?
I love when the Billy Beane-sniffers make these kind of statements without providing examples of what their plan of attack
would've been. What players of note were going to come to the Mets for a 1-year deal as filler for the stars? And how would
that have looked to an angry fan base that's playing "wait and see" before purchasing tickets for 2010 after the
calamity that was 2009?
Would
Sherman have liked the Mets to go the route they traveled in 2004 with Karim Garcia and Shane Spencer platooning in right
field and Jason Phillips at first base? Where are these players that are pounding on the door of the Mets offices not just
to join the club, but to do so at a discount?
Maybe they should've signed Coco Crisp.
That would've livened up the Mets Hot Stove.
Big time.
It's not as if the Mets have said, "Okay, that's it. Vault closed."
They're going to get at least one and maybe two starting pitchers; they're still playing with various scenarios at catcher;
and if they can do something with Luis Castillo, they can sign Orlando Hudson or trade for Dan Uggla. With the stars returning
from injury, are the Mets the joke they're portrayed?
It was a year ago that Las Vegas had the Mets as one of the NL favorites to reach the World Series. The perceived state of
a club is the main factor that influences players (after money) on whether to sign on. The Bay acquisition sends a signal
to the other available players that the Mets have something going on; it's a means to an end. The players deliberating on
the Mets can say, "they've got Bay, they've got the returning players; it's not so bad over there".
Does Coco Crisp do that for the Athletics?
The bottom line of all this is that the Mets
needed to do something bold for a bat. They needed a player who wasn't a jerk; who would produce at the plate; and would play
the game the right way. That they got it at their price should be treated as a positive and taken as such rather than finding
reasons to denigrate what should be a happy day for the New York media even if they hate the Mets and GM Omar Minaya.
If they're going to rip it, then leave the warmth
of Beane's, Bill James's and Theo Epstein's collective backsides for a moment to acquire some objectivity for what went right
instead of what could go wrong; then they might be able to write something that makes sense instead of Sherman's ridiculous
drivel that's similar to much of what's out there savaging the move based on little more than that it was the Mets that made
it.
Whither Matt Holliday?
Matt Holliday's market is almost non-existent
at this point unless the Red Sox, Yankees or Angels make a quick and sudden strike to blow the Cardinals current offer out
of the water. The Cardinals are exhibiting confidence that the offer will be successful----link.
There was talk about the Orioles
jumping in with a major offer of $130 million, but team president Andy MacPhail shot that down completely. With agent Scott
Boras, there's always the chance that he's planting the phony "one mystery team" to drive up the price if he has
no other options; then there's the chance that there really is a mystery team like
the Yankees with Mark Teixeira a year ago.
For all the criticism Boras receives, for the most part, his players get their money----eventually. Kyle Lohse had to settle
for a 1-year deal with the Cardinals, but pitched so well that he got a long term deal a year later; and amid all the controversy
and contretemps of the Alex Rodriguez opt-out during the 2007 World Series, Boras still negotiated the contract and got ARod
another $200 million deal where there was none available anywhere except from the Yankees. So where could Holliday still wind
up if it's not the Cardinals? Let's take a look.
St. Louis Cardinals:
This is still the most logical destination and where he'll presumably be when all is said and done. Holliday had no interest
nor the intention of taking short money to stay in St. Louis as players have done in the past, but it's still a great baseball
town; he's playing with the best hitter of the past 50 years in Albert Pujols; and as long as Tony La Russa's there, the Cardinals
will be contenders.
Baltimore Orioles:
Baltimore is no
longer the toxic wasteland it was five years ago thanks to MacPhail's rebuilding of the farm system, making some smart trades
and convincing owner Peter Angelos to back off. The Orioles still have some issues, most notably manager Dave Trembley, who
I doubt will be there when they turn the corner; but with the additions of Kevin Millwood and Mike Gonzalez and the young
pitching and bats, a .500 season in 2010 isn't out of the realm of possibility; and they've got the money to pay Holliday.
Plus, he'd put up big offensive numbers in Camden Yards.
Boston Red Sox:
Holliday would hit in Boston and he's exactly what the Red Sox need short of Adrian Gonzalez. Given the way the Red Sox have
complained about a payroll limit recently, they'd have to find a taker for Mike Lowell and possibly J.D. Drew, but don't discount
Epstein's creativity and the club's desperation to bring in a bat and assuage a skittish fan base.
New
York Yankees:
The Yankees had hovered around Mark Teixeira, but weren't actively
involved until they struck. I don't think they'll get in on Holliday and truth be told, they don't need him; but there's always
that chance...
San Francisco Giants:
They need a bat desperately and Holliday would slot perfectly into their feisty lineup; plus Aaron Rowand could cover for
his defensive liabilities in the outfield. They're not going to spend $100+ million on Holliday especially after he flamed
out across the bay with the Athletics. The only way this happens is if GM Brian Sabean finds a taker for Barry Zito. In other
words, forget it.
Los Angeles Angels:
In years past,
I'd say this is the team to watch for with a late lightning strike as they pulled with Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero,
among others. But the Angels front office was livid with Boras for the way he jerked them around with Teixeira; and while
most teams talk out of both sides of their mouths when saying they're not dealing with a certain agent if they can help it,
the one team I believe when they say something like that is the Angels.
From owner Arte Moreno on down to manager Mike Scioscia, the Angels are an organization that doesn't
put up with crap. I'd faint if they got in on Holliday.
Don't discount the Red Sox, but my guess
is Holliday ends up back with the Cardinals simply because he doesn't have much choice.
Viewer Mail 12.31.2009:
John Seal writes RE Mark DeRosa and the Giants:
Prince, I'm duly noting your prediction that the Giants will win the NL
West and am already preparing to pummel you with ridicule come next October. (If I'm wrong, don't bother to pummel me. I will
already be dead at my own hand.) The DeRosa signing is classic Sabean: sign an old guy after his career year and expect
him to do it again.
Of
course, my perverse and unnatural hatred of the Giants (they are the number one team in my Trinity of Baseball Evil; you can
probably guess the other two) may be clouding my vision...
I picked the Giants
to win the division last year at 89-73; I got almost full credit as they went 88-74, but faded down the stretch (much like
my horses from last night's fun-filled foray to the racetrack---one of my horses literally just wandered off during the race,
but I digress...).
I'm hurt John.
I'd never pummel you for an accurate or inaccurate pick. In fact, if I chose to make you suffer, the worst thing I could do
would be to let you endure witnessing the towering inferno that the Billy Beane "genius" and Moneyball has become.
All kidding aside, the Giants pitching is
more of a factor than anything for me to think they're going to bust through next year. As of right now, I'd say they've got
just enough hitting to be there at the end of 2010; if they brought in that one power bat, they'd be the class of the division;
and when manager Bruce Bochy has had his clubs in serious contention late in a season, they generally make the playoffs. DeRosa's
another good, versatile player who they got relatively cheaply and will fit into the clubhouse seamlessly.
With Sabean, he's been cleverly adroit in addressing
what his club needed at a particular time. During the Barry Bonds years, the strategy was to "build around Barry"
and it worked beautifully. It was expected that the Giants would be stumbling and struggling for at least five years "post-Barry",
but Sabean rebuilt the farm system and got the club back to respectability faster than would've the more media-beloved GMs
Beane, Epstein and Cashman .
You'll
have to accept that the Giants are back in contention.
Look on the bright side! The A's got...Coco.....Crisp.
Ok, here is a huge disagreement, what is wrong with
the Red Sox "back-end of their rotation?" Buchholz, Daisuke, and Wakefield trying to notch up the final two spots?
Tazawa and Bowden for spot starts. Try to find a better "back end" than that.
Buchholz is still basically a rookie with great potential, who knows?
Even for a knuckleballer, Wakefield's about shot. His body's breaking down from top to bottom
and if you think you'll be able to count on him in 2010 at age 43, you're dreaming.
And Matsuzaka?
Matsuzaka has flashy stats on the surface, but you of all people should know that the 18-2 record from 2008 masked what he really is. He was mediocre
in 2007; he was rotten in 2009; and his Gamelogs in 2008 shine a clear light into those gaudy numbers.
He's wild; he racks up ridiculous pitch counts by the fifth and sixth innings; he gives up a lot of homers; and he's shielded
in a cocoon by the Red Sox offense and bullpen. They deploy him effectively because they know what he is. He's a product of
a system, not a weapon in and of himself.
Y'know who he reminds me of? Storm Davis from 1988. As a pitcher who'd get through six innings, give up 4 runs, and hand the game over to the bullpen, Davis took advantage
of the Tony La Russa strategy with the A's and parlayed it into a 19-win year and a lucrative free agent contract with the
Royals (provided by the "genius" John Schuerholz, apparently before he discovered his inner-"genius").
Matsuzaka is Storm Davis and while that's not bad; it's not good either.
In other words, Matsuzaka is the epitome of mediocrity. No one is concerned about facing him because
he's not that good; he wasn't worth the posting money, and he's not a big time starter even at the back of the rotation. He
could be replaced by a Jon Garland; by a Doug Davis, and truth be told, I'd rather have Garland or Davis. That's how little
I think of Matsuzaka.
The Yankees,
Angels and White Sox (just off the top of my head) have better back end rotations than that. The Red Sox have some problems
that you refuse to accept, but you'd better hope Epstein and co accepts them and quick if you want another playoff run.
I could think of plenty 'back ends' better than
that, but unfortunately, none of them have to do with baseball and everything to do with the club I was at last night.
I think this dissection of the Red Sox organization and fan base as being "whiny" is great. I've been
saying that for a long time, but never in such a coherent manner. I love the bit about offering $60 million to a guy who has
"medical issues". Hilarious retort.
The Prince of New York
Family Research Council must know: what club was this? Just for research purposes, of course.
What stunned me more than anything is that I wasn't attacked by Red Sox
Nation for that very reasonable question; in fact, as stated earlier, no one even answered it!
I'm very grateful to the Mets for taking Bay out
of the American League East. Many thanks!
It's our pleasure. Anything to help the Yankees.
Note on a loyal soldier:
One of my loyalest of loyalists, Isaac, has started his own blog called A Baseball Thing.
Isaac's writing is impressive
on it's own, but even more impressive because he's still a teenager; and we all know what a notorious prick I am when it comes
to assessing the writing of others. (It's never personal.)
Isaac's been a loyal soldier for me from the start; in fact----and this is not an indictment of anyone
else----but he was the only one who was around to provide protection for me on Twitter as I was bombarded by arrows and worse
in the aftermath of my picking the Angels to beat the Yankees in the ALCS. I was under siege and he had the cojones to stand
with me me as I took the bullets. Amid the other reasons to check out his blog, that's a pretty good one in and of itself.
Loyalty counts.
It took awhile and it was a matter of circumstances (perhaps circumcision
is a better term) to get it done, but the end result is all that matters and that end result is that Jason Bay has agreed
to sign with the New York Mets for 4-years and $66 million pending a physical.
The ridicule has already changed course from the focus on the Mets sitting idly by while the Phillies
made the much praised but tactically faulty decision to essentially trade Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay, to laughter at the "sinking
ship" in which Bay has enlisted. And the word out of Boston is as it usually is when they lose out on a player: whining
and alibis without merit or foundation.
As much
as Mets GM Omar Minaya has been criticized for his mistakes, he's been smart and patient in his acquisition of most players.
From the aggressive moves to sign Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez in 2005 and Billy Wagner in 2006, to Francisco Rodriguez
in 2009, and the trades for Carlos Delgado and Johan Santana, Minaya's never panicked even as the world around him crumbled.
It would've been easy and understandable for him to say, "I've
gotta do something" to get the press and fans off his back as the Phillies made
their moves; the Yankees continued to dominate the city; and the Mets were under siege. But he waited and got the player he
wanted all along at something close to their first offer at the winter meetings.
The laughter is all well and good coming from the Bronx and out of Boston, but in the end, who
cares? Many times these marriages of convenience end up being the best thing that could've happened for both sides when examined
in retrospect. The Mets needed a legitimate bat for left field; Bay wanted to get paid. Both sides win in that respect.
Did Bay really want to come to the Mets? I don't think anyone could
argue that he did, but it probably had more to do with preferring to stay in Boston or go to a locale more palatable for his
family like Seattle than any reticence about New York or the Mets. No one remembers that Carlos Beltran's first choice was
to remain with the Astros after 2005; or that Scott Boras went to the Yankees and offered a cheaper deal for them to get the
center fielder; he wound up with the Mets and in the end, everyone was happy.
Attractiveness of a team is based on the variable of their perception. After the year the Mets
had in 2009, how could anyone look at their club and say that they wanted to be a part of the hell that they endured for the
whole season? But objectively----barring a nuclear holocaust directed at Citi Field and nowhere else----could everything go as badly in 2010 as it did in 2009? With the roster they had in place before signing Bay, they'd
be back around .500 if they stayed healthy. With Bay, they're right back into the middle-80s in wins and as they add a starting
pitcher and another bat, they're a contender.
The worries about Bay when he was acquired to replace Manny Ramirez in the Red Sox lineup were almost identical to what they
are now as he joins the Mets in a different context. Could he handle playing for a contender for the first time after years
with the hapless Pirates? Would he respond to the pressure in Boston? Could he negotiate the Green Monster?
All questions were answered in the affirmative.
The Bay defensive liabilities are what they are, but with Beltran
in center and Jeff Francoeur in right, the Mets will cover for him well enough; and his issues in the field aren't for
a lack of hustle. Bay was exemplary on and off the field for the Red Sox and will be the same for the Mets. His quiet influence
will be another positive addition just as the Francoeur enthusiasm caught fire with the Mets and their fans.
With Bay, the Mets are getting a basher for the middle of their lineup
who will be able to hit the ball out of Citi Field to add to the other hitters in their lineup that don't have a problem with
the dimensions----Jeff Francoeur and Beltran. If David Wright's homer numbers end at 15-20 and he hits doubles and triples
rather than homers with his shots to center and right, so what? A healthy Jose Reyes will set the table for the middle of
that lineup.
The comedy routines worthy of Dane
Cook, Billy Crystal and Adam Sandler (and yes, I picked the lamest comedians I can think of on purpose) are fine, but they're
all too easy to cover up the truth under the surface. The Mets got their man; they're looking better to the rest of the free
agent class and the skids are greased for some more improvements to a foundation that's much better than is implied.
The absurd reaction out of Boston:
You can mask the anger and panic with indignation and idiocy, but
those that can peel back the layers will see the reality of what's going on with the Red Sox.
They're afraid.
So lacking in confidence in the current player moves that they choose to whine and react as a jilted lover by saying the insincere,
"well, we can do better"; or "we didn't really want him back anyway"; or the ever popular "yeah,
go to the sinking ship in Queens; who needs ya?!?" to mask their hurt and panic.
It was the same thing with the shocking Mark Teixeira decision to sign with the Yankees. The Yankees
weren't even thought to be involved with Teixeira; the Angels had pulled out; there was nowhere else for him to go----until
the Yankees struck and pulled the first baseman out from under the Red Sox collective noses. Instead of admitting they were
outhustled, there was the indignation and acting out that has become as much a part of the Red Sox culture as it was seen
to be with the Yankees and the "Evil Empire" during their years of dominance and Red Sox failure.
The Yankees outbid the Red Sox for a player? Owner John Henry calls
for a salary cap.
The Yankees trade for veteran
stars to fill their holes while the Red Sox sit by impotently? The Red Sox have to keep one eye on now and the future because
of non-existent payroll constraints.
It's a familiar
theme.
Now that Bay's gone, we see articles like
this from a bitter and spoiled fool named Steve Buckley implying that Bay is heading toward "Siberia". I seem to recall
a similar sentiment about the Red Sox as recently as 2002 and the Mets as recently as 2004. The Red Sox turned things around
pretty quickly to become a paragon of success; and the Mets were a game away from the World Series by 2006.
Now there's a new tack of a whisper campaign coming from Boston
via Jon Heyman on Twitter. It goes like this:
#redsox found some "physical issues'' with #bay. #mets are believed to be aware of this. med. exam could be a marathon
So,
let me see if I understand this correctly. The Red Sox were concerned about his physical issues...but still offered him $60
million? How concerned could they have been about budget, health, defense and age if they were ready to pay him that amount
of money? Are the Red Sox in the habit of doing favors for their fans to keep a popular player? To spend $60 million for a
player with "physical issues"?
The Red
Sox are in no position----moral or otherwise----to complain about this any more than they were in a position to complain about
the Teixeira mistake. They walked away from Bay; not the other way around.
The simple fact is that the Red Sox fans and media are frightened about the state of their team
in replacing Bay with Mike Cameron; petrified that they have to compete with the resurgent Yankees for the division and the
Mariners/Angels/White Sox/Twins for a playoff spot with an aging and overpaid roster.
That roster as currently constructed is not making the playoffs in 2010 because they don't have
enough firepower; their back end rotation is questionable; they're not as good nor are they as deep as the Yankees; and the
competition is fierce. Unless they do something to fix their lineup hole, they're not a playoff team and the replacement of
Bay with Cameron is another nail in the coffin.
The Red Sox are in trouble and they can't complain their way out of it no matter how hard they try. Trust me, they will try and all the caveats in the world aren't going to solve their problems unless they get a legitimate
power bat. And Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro aren't it. But they knew that already. Or they should.
Actually, they'd better know
that for their own good.
That's a more appropriate word for their mess that they've yet to adequately clean up.
Viewer Mail 12.30.2009:
Gabriel (Capo) writes RE Mark DeRosa:
I have always liked DeRosa. Good signing by the Giants. I think
that division could be toughest in the National League, depending on what the Marlins and the Dodgers do.
The Giants are winning that division. Mark it down now.
Jeff (Acting Boss) at Red State Blue State writes RE the stat zombies with a reprint of a quote and a retort:
"Billy Beane once said -- and honestly, I can't remember
if he said this to Michael Lewis, or to me -- something like, "I might be a better general manager if I never watched
a single game."
This statement is...full...of...shit.
And honestly, I can't remember if I said this to myself or if
some higher power said this to me in a delusion-filled dream.
I didn't want to
mention that dream bit in the linked blog from yesterday, but it was....weird.
The Moneyball movie will get made, one way or the other. It has very little to do with Billy Beane
and everything to do with Michael Lewis. Hollywood loves him, The Blind Side being a good reason why.
I hope you're right, Jane. As much as a I repeatedly say that there's no Moneyball movie to be made,
I'd love to see that train wreck. Can you say Hudson Hawk? Ishtar? Gigli? It's a worthy successor. Beyond worthy----and an
endless fountain of material for me. It'll be a fitting end to the firestorm that's coming.
Yes, even Dave Cameron makes mistakes, as do you, me and everyone that has ever cared about the game of
baseball.
"Even Dave Cameron"?
What is he, the Dalai Lama?
There's a difference between making a mistake acknowledging it and clinging to a lie in desperate self-interest.
Unlike Cameron, I don't have an agenda aside from the truth, so I
have no shame in admitting I'm wrong.
You never
hear a word about his failed prediction regarding the Marlins; nor Jason Vargas; and I'm not even getting into their repeated
defending of Paul DePodesta, it's so ludicrous.
"Ignore it and it'll go away" doesn't fly with me and until they start to loosen their tenuous grip on the out-of-context
numbers, I'll continue to slam down the hammer and they won't even respond because they can't.
The litany of mistakes that cost the Cubs what
was their last World Series chance with this current group and with Lou Piniella as manager began in game one of the NLDS
in 2008 as Piniella chose to start Ryan Dempster. Dempster had a fantastic year and statistically, deserved the game one start;
realistically, he is not the guy you want starting game one of a playoff series; and his results bore that out.
After the Dodgers dispatched the Cubs like debris
after a would-be Cubs ticker tape parade, the Cubs made another series of ghastly blunders. The Milton Bradley signing is
a gaffe that requires no discussion; the other mistake was trading Mark DeRosa to the Indians for minor league pitchers Chris Archer, John Gaub and Jeff Stevens.
The three minor league pitchers look
to be talented in judging by their stats, but the idea in making that deal for the Cubs was not to bring in some young pitching
to replenish a destitute farm system; the idea was to piece together some chips to get Jake Peavy from the Padres. This move
is the latest example of a GM----Jim Hendry----going against his manager's wishes and making a decision with it in his mind's
eye for an even bigger move far off on the horizon. Piniella did not want to trade DeRosa; and he most certainly didn't want
to have to deal with Milton Bradley; and they didn't even get Peavy!
In a trade reminiscent of the ridiculous Paul DePodesta decision to jettison a chunk of the Dodgers
roster in 2004 as they were rolling toward the playoffs and possibly the World Series, Hendry didn't learn from another GM's
mistake.
In the hopes of spinning
Brad Penny off to the Diamondbacks for Randy Johnson while not having a deal in place with either the Diamondbacks or Johnson
himself, DePodesta wrecked the Dodgers on and off the field in one swift and stupid strike. Only someone without even the
most basic comprehension of clubhouse chemistry would've thought that Bradley being in the clubhouse instead of DeRosa was
an upgrade. The fiery "do anything and everything to win" DeRosa was the glue of the Cubs clubhouse and he was gone----and
they didn't even get Peavy!!
The
idea that a team will live with the return on such a trade if the next trade doesn't go through is acceptable in certain cases.
In this case and the case of the DePodesta Dodgers, it wasn't acceptable. If the Cubs
were making that move with an eye on Peavy; or the Dodgers with Johnson, a deal should've been in place before signing off
on trading important cogs to the club's prior success. It was a big mistake and began the Cubs tailspin that's not going to
end anytime soon until a new regime is in place.
They blew it.
With the Giants signing DeRosa, the one big thing they gain along
with his attitude is versatility. (That Giants club is loaded with gamers from DeRosa to Aaron Rowand to Edgar Renteria.)
Because Pablo Sandoval can play first or third base; because the newly signed Mark DeRosa (2-years, $12 million) can play
anywhere; because Freddy Sanchez can play second or third base, the Giants still have multiple options to fill their need
for a bat.
The talks for Dan Uggla (another
fiery gamer) have hit a snag, but that doesn't mean they can't be revisited and Uggla can be shifted to first base or left
at second as DeRosa plays the outfield. They could go after Adam LaRoche, who'd be a great fit in that clubhouse; or there's
the reasonably priced and well-respected Jermaine Dye. With their pitching, the Giants are automatically in contention, but
if they want to be taken seriously as something more than a member of the group of "maybes" that are permeating
the National League now, they need a guy who produces runs by himself.
If I were advising the Giants, I'd check in to see what the Tigers are thinking with Miguel Cabrera.
It would be stunning if they wouldn't be willing to talk about it and there's a possibility that their desire to clear some
salary and replenish the farm system would trump what Cabrera's talents would be worth in an even swap. Would the Giants have
to take a Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis or Jeremy Bonderman contract along with Cabrera and not give up the entire farm
system? Maybe.
The Tigers haven't
exactly been the sharpest tools in the shed when judging minor league talent. It would come down to the Giants being willing
to take on the payroll. Cabrera's got $126 million coming to him through 2015, so I wouldn't expect the Giants to make that
kind of move financially unless they were able to find a taker for Aaron Rowand, but it's something to explore.
They'd be contenders with the addition of Dye,
Uggla or LaRoche, but with Cabrera they'd be the instant favorites in the National League.
Those goalposts are heavy, everyone-----HEAVE!!!!
And I do mean heave in every possible definition
of the word.
If it wasn't so absurd at
how the stat zombies are shifting the Moneyball/"stat revolution" goalpoasts (and not too subtly, I might add),
it'd be funny; not funny ha-ha, but funny sad; funny embarrassing; funny to the point where I might actually lay off a bit
and let them wallow in their own morass of humiliation.
But it is that absurd.
They're still clinging to the Moneyball-created ideal that every major league baseball front office will one
day be a computer suite filled with Ivy League-educated armchair experts who look at the game with the detachment and clarity
of a scientist trying to send a rocket to the moon or cure a dreaded disease. If they had their way, the winter meetings could
conceivably mesh with a simultaneously held Star Trek convention and no one would know the difference as to whom was there
to attend what because they'd be there to visit both!
Much like the Moneyball movie and Billy Beane's sudden abandonment of his portrayal as an infallible genius as he comes
under increasing scrutiny and fire for his practical ineptitude over the past year, the hardest of the hard core stat zombie
continues to try and salvage whatever's left from the inferno.
Here's the newest shifting of the goalposts about Moneyball from Rob Neyer in his SweetSpot blog on ESPN:
Michael Lewis' book took two intellectual tacks: one, that winning without money
means appreciating undervalued assets; and two, that objective analysis generally is more useful than subjective analysis.
Billy Beane once said -- and honestly, I can't remember if he said this to Michael Lewis, or to me -- something like, "I
might be a better general manager if I never watched a single game." The idea being, of course, that our eyes and our
emotions can lead to poor decisions, relative to relying on the cold, hard facts. (Another thing Billy Beane has said: "In
God we trust; all others must bring data.").
Winning without money
is not about appreciating undervalued assets. Winning without money is being smarter and a better judge of what's important
without being so arrogant and pompous that you dismiss everything that doesn't have a numerical value attached to it. If Larry
Beinfest tells me he likes a player and doesn't know why----he just likes him----I'm more inclined to listen to Beinfest than
I am to the aforementioned DePodesta based on history and success.
Would "objective analysis" have looked at a player like Casey Blake, who in years past and
based on numbers, would've been seen as an "organizational player"; in other words----filler? A guy to be kept at
Triple A and little else. What was it that made Mark Shapiro and the Indians see something in Blake, who'd never gotten a
real chance to play in the big leagues and washed out in three organizations before becoming a hustling, fundamentally solid
cog for both the Indians and Dodgers division winners starting at the advanced age of 29? It sure wasn't his minor league numbers that indicated he'd become much of anything in the big leagues. His numbers were okay in the minors; maybe he could be a
useful utility guy. Maybe. So what was it that led the Indians to give him a chance to play? Was it "objective"
or "subjective"? And who was right?
Is objective analysis really such a step up over taking everything into account? Did it work in San Diego? In Toronto?
In Los Angeles? In Oakland? Even in Boston, where the Red Sox have covered their mistakes with gobs and gobs of money? The
elephant in the room that's conveniently ignored for expediency is that the Marlins and Twins are not stat zombie organizations
and have been far more successful with a reasonable budget than any of the stats-obsessed teams.
This implication that Michael Lewis would've written a "different"
book if he were observing a stats-oriented team today is accurate, but not in the way the blog posting suggests.
Lewis had an agenda.
That agenda was to write a book that put the stat "revolution"
in the best possible light to extol the virtues of Bill James, Billy Beane, et al. I have no doubt that as skillful as Lewis
is, he could write a similar book in as convincing a manner about the Marlins or Twins and create another "revolution"
by those gullible enough to believe that every word uttered by the likes of James and regurgitated by Beane are equivalent
to the biblical testimony delivered by Moses.
Does that make the end result of Lewis accurate? Or is it the work of a writer trying to craft a story to fit his purposes?
Lewis could've written anything about any team and the sheep would've started grazing and defending it to the end. It's not
real.
This relentless quoting
of Beane has become so tiresome that it's all but ignored now. Given the way the Athletics "objective reality" has
them destined for last place in the AL West next year and on track to win maybe----maybe----75 games, do they even want to face reality at this point?
Coco Crisp? Yeah, let's talk about his defensive value. That'll explain it.
Michael Lewis doesn't know anything about baseball. He's not the
conduit to bring the world of the stat zombie to the masses; he's a writer selling a narrative; a narrative that no longer
fits into the real world because it hasn't worked!! Instead of his followers admitting this simple fact, they cling;
they twist; the shimmy and shake trying to remove the shackles of reality that they were so beholden to when the book was
released and the few years in which it was taken as gospel.
Their side is losing, but the founding members of the cult remain. To the last. You almost have to
admire it. Almost.
Viewer Mail 12.29.2009:
Joe writes RE Kenshin Kawakami and his contract:
I was kind of shocked that the Braves extended Hudson THREE years after
having surgery as well. As for Kawakami, how is 6 million too much? According to Dave Cameron, an average player on the free
agent market right now costs $9 mill...
Kawakami's salary is too high because: A) he's about to turn 35; B) he isn't particularly good;
and C) the Braves could get a similar result from their fifth starter if they slotted Kris Medlen or James Parr in and let
them pitch.
Joe, are you really coming
on my site and referencing Dave Cameron?
The same Dave Cameron who smugly ridiculed the Marlins as contenders before the season started?
The same Dave Cameron who extols the virtues of Jason Vargas?
The same Dave Cameron who still inexplicably defends
the tenure of Paul DePodesta as Dodgers GM?
I think the Mets should have that sit down with Bay
and his agent and say, "Are you coming here or not?" So annoying to have to wait on a player.
It is
enough already. There's giving a guy time to think about a job offer and there's this.
The Mets appear to have had enough as well. GM Omar Minaya was quoted over the weekend as saying he's interested in Matt Holliday, but that Bay's going to be easier to sign. Bottom line, unless Bay knows he's
got another deal in hand (and if that were the case, he'd have signed it already), he'll be screwed if the Mets move on.
If Bay can't cash in as heavily as he wants after
the career-year he had in 2009 and his strong season-and-a-half showing in Boston, then he'd better just cut his losses and
take the best offer on the table and end the pissing contest because it looks like he's already lost as much as a guy about
to make a guaranteed $65 million can lose.
After seeing Joe's comment on the Sunday Lightning,
I had to restrain my rage by meditating on peaceful thoughts. Fifteen minutes later I realized it wasn't working... but I
still managed to keep my mouth shut. Not.... sure.... I can.... much.... longer....
In all fairness to Joe,
sometimes it's hard to tell, but I think he was kidding just to get me to react.
Gabriel writes RE the Braves:
Would you pay 6 million to an average player? I wouldn't.
I think the Braves will break down the stretch unless they make a couple of good trades at midseason.
I don't consider
Kawakami an "average" player to start with.
Jason Heyward is supposedly the real deal and the Braves have shown no fear in bringing a very young player up and inserting him right
into the fire as they did with Andruw Jones in 1996. They'll be running a big risk putting the pot of gold on a 20-year-old
with their current roster as veteran as it is, but they might be better doing that than overpaying at mid-season, something
they've made a habit of to their detriment.
Objectively, they might be better served to go into the season with what they currently have and see what comes available
as the season moves along. Adrian Gonzalez will be out there; as might Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Lee. Their pitching will
keep them competitive even if they don't get a bat right now.
Stupid Contracts Put The Braves In Their Current Position
The subtle difference between playoff contender
and title favorite:
If I made my playoff predictions today, I would have the Braves as a playoff team. Their starting pitching is still deep;
their bullpen solid; and they have enough hitting to be one of the top four teams in the league. That said, there's a difference
between what the Braves could've been a week ago and what they are now.
The team that had Javier Vazquez in their rotation and was only one power bat away from being frighteningly
good diminished what they should've been with two rapid-fire moves that aren't just questionable, they're outright stupid.
While the talk that the Braves ownership, Liberty
Media, demanded that GM Frank Wren slash payroll to somewhere around $100 million for 2010 does have an effect on the types
of players that can be brought it, the whole financial mess can be attributed to some ill-thought-out contracts that have
hamstrung the Braves now and will continue to do so in the future if things go badly.
Financial constraints forced the trade of Rafael Soriano after he stunningly
accepted arbitration; the release of Ryan Church (which was probably going to happen anyway); the trade of Vazquez for non-entity
Melky Cabrera; and the bargain-basement, desperation signing of Troy Glaus to "fill" the hole for a basher. These
decisions are all side effects from the contracts that were lavished on Chipper Jones, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson and Kenshin
Kawakami. Those deals and the vast number of arbitration-eligibles on the roster has forced the club to cut corners. Because
of these problems, they're faced with the problem of clearing payroll to make budget.
It's a fine line between being a title contender, able to stand toe-to-toe
with the Yankees and Phillies, and being amongst the hopefuls like the White Sox, Giants, Cardinals and Red Sox----talented,
close, but with major questions.
Was it necessary to give Chipper Jones an extension as lucrative as they did? Jones, one of the best hitters of this era and
a Brave through-and-through, wasn't going to leave as long as the Braves were fair; did they need to give him a late-career
Powerball lottery ticket? He's going to be 38 in April of 2010 and the Braves are on the hook for a guaranteed $42 million
through 2012. If ever there was a player suited to be a DH, it's Jones. He can barely move in the field and his entire body
is breaking down. Are the Braves really expecting to get their money's worth not just in 2012, but in 2010?
Was it necessary to sign Tim Hudson to a 3-year, $28
million extension just as he was returning from Tommy John surgery? Given the current market and that there are so many pitchers
who've got a better history of durability and aren't still recovering from major surgery, the Braves could've gotten
Hudson back for probably $8 million less. That savings would've been sufficient to keep Vazquez.
Kenshin Kawakami is the latest in a long line of imports from Japan that
is overpaid and underwhelming. His stuff is okay; he could be a useful back-of-the-rotation starter, but not at $6.67 million
annually through 2011. After the way Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kaz Matsui and Hideki Irabu flamed out after hype that bordered
on the ludicrous, I would only take the type of Japanese player like Hideki Okajima who was inexpensive and under-the-radar.
No ifs, ands or buts.
The Derek Lowe
signing was seen by the industry as overpaying to get the player. Notably it was the Mets----who are unfairly saddled with
the industry dunce cap that should be relegated to the Pittsburgh Pirates of the world----were stunned that the Braves went
as high as they did with Lowe. Lowe is owed $45 million through 2012; the Braves were willing to give him away this winter
and found no takers; and the pitcher is angry at the club for so desperately trying to unload him. I'm not prepared to say
Lowe's finished despite his poor 2009, but that contract is an albatross unless he reverts to what he was with the Dodgers.
There is a chance of that happening.
After signing Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito in two solid moves to shore up the bullpen, the Braves were blindsided by Soriano's
decision to accept arbitration after seeing the writing on the wall of his free agent marketability. Wren did a solid job
in getting Soriano's contract off the team and bringing in the impressive power arm of Jesse Chavez from the Rays. That has
potential to be a big, stealth move; Chavez will be at least as effective----and possibly more----than the inconsistent, mentally
shaky and homer-prone Soriano.
The arbitration
situation of the Braves is even more troubling for the payroll. Matt Diaz, Jair Jurrjens, Peter Moylan and Melky Cabrera are
heading for arbitration and all are due big raises. With these issues, it's understandable how the Braves have simply let
Adam LaRoche leave without so much as a reasonable offer; and have decided to roll the dice with Glaus. But the trade of Vazquez
for such little return was a byproduct of the massive contracts that are more than likely going to be anchors weighing the
club down as early as this coming season.
How much blame to dole on Wren and Wren alone is a question. Did ownership interfere in the Chipper negotiations? As
disliked as Wren is, he's never been beholden to legends (as evidenced by stupid by admirably ballsy battle with Cal Ripken
Jr in Baltimore as their GM), so it's possible he wasn't on board with that extension.
John Schuerholz is still the president of the club and one would assume
that he has plenty of sway with what's going on. Because he was referred to as a "genius" for all those years doesn't
make it so. When Schuerholz took over as Braves GM in 1990, the pieces were already in place for the dominant National League
club over the next decade-and-a-half.
A club that happened to have three Hall of Famers in their starting rotation by 1992, and a lineup boosted by another Hall
of Famer in Jones is hard to screw up. Only one of those players,----Greg Maddux----was acquired by Schuerholz. Tom Glavine
was drafted in 1984; John Smoltz was acquired in a trade for Doyle Alexander by then-GM Bobby Cox in August, 1988; and Jones
was drafted first overall by Cox in 1990. The "genius" Schuerholz is the same guy who was virtually run out of Kansas
City because of ridiculous contracts doled on Storm Davis and Mark Davis to disastrous results.
It could be that the Braves situation is a result of a combination of
circumstances all mixed together to create a team that is good, but not as good as they could've been and there's plenty of
blame to go around. With Cox on the way out after 2010 and the money issues due to those contracts, they might've been better
off going for it all in 2010 because there's every possibility of a sell-off after next year. Then they're really in trouble
because that entire front office has been hit or miss in every aspect for the breadth of their careers from top-to-bottom.
Almost zero hour for Jason Bay:
There are rumblings that the Mets have had just about
enough of waiting for Jason Bay to make his decision as he hopes for another suitor to appear or for the Red Sox to either
decide to expand their budget or make a deal to create room for Bay's salary.
This is turning into a staring contest between the Mets and Bay with the Red Sox
(and I think the Angels) hovering around. There's been talk that the Red Sox might try to backload a long-term deal with some
creativity to be able to keep Bay while staying under the luxury tax threshold. It's possible that they find a way to do it;
but I think the easiest thing for them to do if they're so intent on keeping Bay is to trade J.D. Drew, move Jacoby Ellsbury
to right field and re-sign Bay with the money saved from Drew's $28 million guaranteed through 2011.
As for the Mets, I'd set up a meeting with Bay and his agent, look into
his eyes and ask him point blank if he really wants to play for the Mets, is willing to join the club for money and
little else, or if this is a negotiation ploy----and I'd be able to tell which it was. If I didn't like the answer, I'd move
on immediately, which the Mets seem about ready to do anyway.
Then Bay's really screwed.
There are options out there aside from Bay; in fact, while I prefer
Bay over Matt Holliday, the crashing market might make it feasible for the Mets to seriously consider Holliday. At the very
least, if they make a public (and moderately sincere) move on Holliday, it'd put a scare in Bay that might get him to take
the Mets offer as it stands.
Let's make
a decision already. It's enough.
Viewer
Mail 12.28.2009:
Joe writes:
Numbers play the game, not humans :)
There's living on the edge and there's leaping over
the cliff like Wile E. Coyote. I'm running things, but Jeff is Acting Boss, there's a limit to the control I have over him
from this distance and he's looking askance at you to start with. That kinda statement might send him to the point of no return
and I won't be able to stop him this time. Tread carefully.
I saw the following
parody last night on "That Mitchell and Webb Look" sketch show and while it's funnier if you're familiar with "Ramsay's
Kitchen Nightmares", it's funny on its own merit and worth watching.
Having just finished reading That First Season, by John Eisenberg detailing Vince Lombardi's inaugural year as the head coach of the Green Bay Packers, I got to thinking how his strategies
are still applicable today.
Even
though times have changed drastically from the days of virtually non-existent salaries and the equivalent of indentured servitude
that professional athletes endured in the 1950s and 60s, there is still much to be learned from the success of the greats
from that era. One such great from that time was the Hall of Fame football coach Lombardi.
Lombardi took what had been a perennial doormat in the NFL----the Green
Bay Packers----and molded them into the most dominant and successful team in the league winning five championships in nine
years including the first two Super Bowls; but what was even more stunning was how he took what was basically the same team
from 1958 and had gone 1-10-1 and turned them around to 7-5 in one year.
How did he do it and how are those lessons still applicable in any sport, including
baseball? Let's take a look:
Power:
Lombardi wouldn't have taken the job if he didn't have full autonomy to do whatever he wanted with any and all players. If
that meant cutting or trading what had been the most recognizable and best player, then so be it. He didn't want to deal with
what was the equivalent of a College of Cardinals in the Packers' executive board which oversaw the publicly owned company
that was the Packers. Once he was free of the interference of the know-it-alls on the board, he was able to dispatch players
who he felt were either divisive forces or wouldn't be of much use once the team was ready to contend for a title.
The player that Lombardi used for those purposes
was star wide receiver Billy Howton. Howton had been the leader on and off the field, such as a leader is for a team that
in so horrific that they only won one game; but Howton was loud, arrogant and insolent----the perfect candidate to be thrown
out the door at the first opportunity, and that's exactly what Lombardi did by trading Howton to the Browns.
Part of the idea behind the deal was to send the
message that no one in the organization was safe; but Lombardi was smart enough to get something of use for Howton in defensive
end Bill Quinlan. The player he got back was important, but not as important and the stamp he put on his club by sending a
shock through the entire locker room that times were different; that Lombardi was running things. Period.
The days of a manager/coach having that kind of power to run off a player
unilaterally are over in every sport. One only has to look back to Jimmy Johnson's failed tenure as Dolphins coach to understand
that. Johnson's main regret from that time was that he wanted to get rid of Dan Marino and didn't; it was the right thing
to do for the club and for himself----but for whatever reason, he tried to scotch tape a team together as quickly as possible
with Marino and it didn't work.
Was it fear? Was it resistance from ownership or the fans? Or was it that he didn't have the guts to do what was right? We'll
never know, but he should've coldly pulled the plug on Marino and moved on.
With players being so well-compensated and, in baseball, having no-trade clauses
in their contracts, there's no way for a manager to exert his will over the players in the same manner as Lombardi did; but
the manager must have the backing of ownership if he's going to maintain respect in the clubhouse. You need only
look at the managers who've been successful for the longest time and get the most out of their clubs to understand how important
the respect/fear factor is.
Joe Torre
rules by force of reputation and personality; the players know who's in charge.
Tony La Russa has heavy say-so over his roster and if he decides that a player isn't
going to play for whatever reason, then the player isn't going to play.
Ron Gardenhire has that hammer in Minnesota with the Twins----if you don't play and behave the Twins
way, not only are you not going to play, at the first opportunity, you're going to be gone.
One of the biggest issues I had with Moneyball was the relegation of the
imperative job of field manager to little more than a conduit for upper management to dictate what happens on the field. I
don't care how strong the personality of the front office boss is, he can't be with the players 24/7 running the club in the
trenches. If the players know that the manager is a disposable entity who can be overridden at any time by the GM, why should
any star player buy into what he says? Why listen to him? Why respect him?
The manager must have some power or it can't work.
Conditioning:
If the players aren't in shape, they can't perform up to their capabilities. And I'm not talking about
some new age workout regimen that will get the players hurt.
See Brian Cashman's hiring and almost immediate firing of Marty Miller as Director of Performance
Enhancement----whatever that is----in 2007 and relenting to Torre's and the players' concerns that Miller's techniques
weren't applicable to baseball. Numerous players got hurt under Miller, specifically to their hamstrings and backs. Cashman
has always been susceptible to anyone who walked up to him with a chart or graph that looked good on paper, so his hiring
of a baseball neophyte like Miller should come as no surprise.
Players being in shape during Lombardi's era meant that they were able to execute their assignments
with as much precision in the fourth quarter as they could in the first. That had nothing to do with planning; that had to
do with being in shape; and Lombardi's players were in shape or they were gone.
It takes very little effort to run hard to first base; to be in the proper defensive
position. I'm convinced that most pitchers injuries occur not due to mechanical flaws, but due to physical exhaustion. Once
a pitcher is tired, he loses his proper mechanics; once he loses his proper mechanics (not using his legs and hips as much
as he did earlier in the game) more stress is placed on his arm and injuries occur. That's not due to throwing too many pitches;
that's due to not being in shape to complete his motion correctly.
Lombardi ran his players into the ground like they were in the Marines in that first year for several
reasons. One was to get the players ready; the other was to find out who was committed to the cause; and if they weren't,
they were dispatched.
Flexibility with rules:
Everyone
knows the dirty little secret that Albert Pujols could walk up to Tony La Russa and punch him in the face and the main concern
of the club (and La Russa) would be whether Pujols hurt his wrist or broke his hand; and that if David Freese did the same
thing, Freese would be playing in Taiwan.
The old saying of "remember the golden rule----he who has the gold makes the rules" was in effect during
Lombardi's day in a different way. The players weren't making big money, but if it was a star player without whom the team
couldn't win, they were allowed certain liberties in the interest of the greater good. Of course that was kept quiet.
There was one such player named Bobby Dillon. Dillon
was a defensive back who had retired after the 1958 season, but it didn't take long for Lombardi to realize that he needed
Dillon to come back. Dillon initially refused until training camp was nearly over when he gave in and returned. Lombardi tried
to exert his will and maintain the rules for Dillion by informing the player that he'd have to be fined for every day he missed
camp. Dillon, stunned and enraged, told Lombardi said he wasn't paying a fine because he hadn't been holding out; not only
that, if that was Lombardi's attitude, he wasn't coming back. Lombardi gave in for expediency, but not before getting it straight
with Dillon that if anyone asked, he'd been fined just like everyone else.
Was it ethical?
Was it living up to some spartan code of "everyone treated the same"?
No, but it was smart because he needed Dillon and needed to maintain the
veneer that he'd worked so hard to erect with the other players of an incorruptible force who treated player one just as he
treated player 36.
One would've thought that a devout Catholic like Lombardi would've run
off the wild partiers before he'd even taken off his camel-hair coat and fedora; but those players----Paul Hornung and Max
McGee especially----were imperative to the team. Hornung's after-hours partying was legendary for the time (it mostly consisted
of drinking and chasing women), but on Sunday, he was always ready to do anything and everything to win, from running to throwing
to catching to blocking and kicking field goals. His off-hours activities didn't matter to Lombardi as long as he didn't do
anything to make the team look bad.
As long as the players didn't embarrass the club, were on time, paid attention and played like hell when it was time, he couldn't
have cared less what they were doing off the field.
If I was a manager or coach today, my two main rules for after-hours activities would be: A) be ready to play on time;
and B) stay out of jail.
Psychology:
Lombardi was a teacher
as well as a coach and part of teaching is knowing how to reach every individual pupil. Some need gentility; some need a good
swift kick in the ass. Lombardi was a master psychologist. When the players had everyone jumping on them, Lombardi patted
them on the back. When everyone was telling them how great they were, he unloaded on them.
Individually, he would berate them and drill in what they'd done wrong;
he'd push them to their physical limits and beyond; then, just as they were ready to attack him en masse and tear him to shreds,
he'd pat them on the head and tell them they were doing a great job. No one knew what to make of him and the dichotomy quelled
any dissension before it took root and sabotaged the team from the inside.
Execution:
There was no secret to what the Packers were going to do. They were going to run the ball down the
opponents throat with a fairly small number of plays in which the players had the flexibility to adjust based on what the
defense was doing. It was structured, but had options to maximize what was available.
There's no need----in any sport----for a complicated series of ways to trick
the opponents. If a team has the talent and executes their gameplan, there's little for an opponent to do to stop them. If
you look at the way the aforementioned Twins have been able to maintain their consistency and contend while losing one star
after another due to payroll constraints, it's because they play the game the right way. Their pitchers throw strikes; their
baserunners take the extra base; they move runners along; and defensively, they're always in the right place.
When a team has talent and is well-schooled in fundamentals
so they're second nature, you'd be stunned to see how many more games they'll win with the same talent that couldn't do anything
right previously. And again, if they can't get with the program, they're gone. It's not hard. A team basically telling their
opponent what's coming while knowing they can't be stopped is a dominance that has little to do with talent; it has to do
with a team effort and teaching. Such a combination is unbeatable.
These lessons last through
the decades not because they came written on some tablet delivered from the heavens, but because they're logical, pragmatic
and most importantly, they worked.
Not
to get all sentimental or anything, but I sorta miss the days where the Orioles were the class of the Major Leagues. Still
have a long way to go to match those high standards.
People forget that those Orioles teams, led by
Earl Weaver, were immersed in numbers and was enamored of players who walked and hit the ball out of the park. They also built
their clubs on deep pitching staffs that gobbled innings and threw strikes.
Weaver was a tyrant and a genius. He would find each player's unique abilities
and maximize what they could do rather than whine about what they couldn't. Combined, John Lowenstein, Gary Roenicke
and Benny Ayala were the most productive left field in baseball. Weaver couldn't care less about a player's feelings; if you
produced, you played; if not, you sat. Simple. His pitchers listened to what they were told, or they didn't pitch. Easy.
He also made do with what he had in his strategies.
Weaver was an advocate of pitching and three-run homers, but when he didn't have the power to play that way, he ran all over
the place. He didn't like it, but he didn't complain and did it for the sake of the team.
Had Weaver's teams won just one more World Series than they did, they'd
be right up there with the Big Red Machine and the late 70s Yankees in terms of recognition. Weaver won only one World Series
in 1970, but they could easily have won five more. In 1969, they were overrun by the Miracle Mets; in 1971 and 1979, they
lost game sevens to the Pirates; in 1980, they won 100 games and missed the playoffs because the Yankees won 103; and in 1982,
they came storming back from a seven game, late-August deficit in the AL East to tie the Brewers in the next-to-last day of
the season before losing on the final day of the season.
I still feel that Weaver's never gotten his due even though he's in the Hall of Fame. The guy was a master.
Is that bigfoot?
There's two rarely seen video clips on my alternate site. (Having trouble posting them here.) Click
here if you're interested in seeing whatever "it" is. Warning,
if you see it in person, DO NOT APPROACH!!!!
The Orioles and Nationals have both been strangely
aggressive this off-season and neither appear done in their shopping. Let's take a look at how much better they've made their
respective clubs and whether their fans should be enthusiastic, confused, concerned or all of the above.
Baltimore
Orioles:
Under team president Andy MacPhail, the Orioles ceased the "strategy"
of owner Peter Angelos that included undermining and interfering with everything his baseball people tried to do, nixing deals
that would've made the club better and signing players past their primes in a desperate and futile effort to keep up with
the Yankees and Red Sox.
MacPhail
has never been one to spend money even when there's been money available. It was his modus operandi when leading the Twins
to two World Series wins in five years in 1987 and 1991; and it was the way he ran the Cubs as they came within one game of
the World Series in 2003. The Orioles were a laughingstock at the major league level; they were a laughingstock at the minor
league level. Angelos hired and fired GMs, managers; jettisoned players and alienated a loyal fan base.
Now, they're made a series of savvy trades of clubhouse poison Erik
Bedard; the fading Miguel Tejada; and veterans Chad Bradford and Aubrey Huff to clear salary and replenish the farm system.
MacPhail's work is paying dividends with the emergence of a load of young pitching and catcher Matt Wieters. Combining
that with the outfielders Nick Markakis and Adam Jones and there's a nucleus for a contender sooner rather than later.
Even with that, it was unexpected that the Orioles
would be so aggressive in acquiring veterans this winter. In trading for veteran pitcher Kevin Millwood from the Rangers,
signing closer Mike Gonzalez and third baseman Garrett Atkins, it can be asked whether the Orioles are making a similar mistake
now as those that got them into the mess that required someone like MacPhail to even have to convince Angelos that his way
wasn't working.
There's a major difference
between the two situations of then and now.
The Orioles that were haphazard and clueless in the early part of the decade and collapsed were constantly throwing
money at their problems. That money was wasted on players who were looking for the one last payday of their careers no matter
the circumstances of the club or had nowhere else to go.
Rafael Palmeiro; Pat Hentgen; Tejada; Kris Benson; LaTroy Hawkins; Javy Lopez; Kevin Millar----all came and went without adding
much to the on-field product. But the contracts doled out to those fading veterans weren't completed with an end in mind.
They were mutually advantageous in their panic. The Orioles needed a name to put an artifice on their crumbling foundation;
the players needed someplace to get a guaranteed contract for good money. The Orioles weren't much better with these players
than they would've been without them; and they definitely weren't better in the future than they would've been had they given
a young player a chance to play rather than clinging to the glorified past of the likes of Tejada and Palmeiro to draw a couple
thousand extra fans in a year.
The acquisitions
of this winter have not been on the level of those deals. In fact, they fit very neatly into what MacPhail has built.
Millwood is still an innings-eater; he's gutty; he's
got experience in winning clubhouses; he can still pitch; and he's willing to mentor the younger pitchers Brad Bergeson, Chris
Tillman Brian Matusz and David Hernandez. In a business sense, they got him for Chris Ray who----while having shown ability
earlier in his career----was returning from Tommy John surgery and struggled this season. Nor does it hurt that Millwood is
singing for his free agent supper. It's a total win for the Orioles in every aspect.
Atkins's star had fallen with the Rockies as he lost his starting third base
job to Ian Stewart and was dumped, but the Orioles needed a third baseman or first baseman who could hit. While Atkins's numbers
away from Coors Field are pedestrian, two things might help him with the Orioles: A) a change of scenery; and B) Camden Yards.
On a one-year deal with an option,
Atkins is a great, low-cost roll of the dice for the Orioles.
There were questions regarding the decision to sign Mike Gonzalez to a 2-year, $12 million contract
to take over as closer.
Did they
need Gonzalez?
No.
They could've taken a veteran off the scrapheap
or one of their younger relievers and used them to close, but the money spent on Gonzalez is negligible; they're not losing
their high draft pick as compensation; and in the worst case scenario, there's always a market for a hard-throwing lefty reliever
who racks up strikeouts. It's not a lot of money for what Gonzalez will provide.
The
American League East is hellish, but with if the Orioles young pitching matures quickly, there's no reason they can't make
a run at third place and .500 in 2010. That would make the venue even more attractive to free agents and make a leap into
contention a realistic possibility in 2011.
These were more excellent decisions by MacPhail and the Orioles, whose fortunes are finally looking up. It's about
time for a storied franchise that was once the crème de la crème of the baseball world.
Washington Nationals:
I'm not exactly sure what to make of the Nationals.
Obviously the needed to do something to garner interest
in their club and after a 103-loss year, but the decisions they've made are more of the type an expansion team would make
to import some recognizable veterans, but wouldn't make the team any better than they'd be if they'd stood pat with youth.
Were the Nationals as terrible as they looked early
in the 2009 season (26-61 under Manny Acta)? No. Their pitching was bad, but talented; and they can hit.
Were they as close to .500 as they looked after Jim Riggleman (33-42)
took over for Acta? No.
But how
much better are the Nationals going to be in 2010 with their imports? Not enough to make it noticeable.
With their current roster, if everything goes right, they're about a 73-win
team. That's it. You won't see any Seattle Mariners-style turnaround from 100-losses to over .500 and rising because the Mariners
climb was due more to everything that could've gone wrong going wrong in 2008 and a few smart signings and trades, plus health
from their players resulted in an 85-win year in 2009.
Is Jason Marquis a difference-maker? Brian Bruney? Matt Capps? Ivan Rodriguez? Eddie Guardado?
Of all the players the Nats have brought in during their aggressive winter,
the only one I'd have any legitimate interest in if I was a GM for a contender would be Capps. Aside from that, there's not
much of an improvement; in fact, there's a slight downgrade because Rodriguez is going to block Jesus Flores from playing.
In the National League East, which is going to be
about as rough for the Nats as the AL East will be for the Orioles, they could be much better in theory with the results not
much better on the field. The Braves are better than they were last year; the Phillies are still very good; the Marlins are
tough; and the Mets were a punching bag due to injuries more than any continuing downward spiral.
With Bobby Valentine available, interested in the job and an instant credibility-enhancer
as well as being one of the best field, if not the best field managers in the world, the Nats decided to keep Riggleman
as full time manager. I have no problem with Riggleman; he's not going to embarrass the club on or off the field and he can
run things well enough, but is he going to be managing when they turn the corner with Stephen Strasburg fronting the rotation?
If not, then it made no sense to keep him on.
If the Nats were signing these
players with the idea that they were going to have chips to trade at mid-season, it would be one thing, but I get the impression
that they're getting these players with the intent of keeping them, and that's puzzling. It's going to get worse
if they continue to aggressively pursue John Smoltz because the last thing the Nats or Smoltz needs is the situation of the
Nationals. If it comes to pass, I have to question the sanity and objectives on both ends. It's a bad idea much like many
of the decisions made by the Nats so far this winter.
Signing Glaus, to me, tells Braves fans that Wren is
just sorta half assing it. And Bay? Holliday? What happens when the big teams just move on without them? They get even LESS
money. Holding out ain't gonna get em more money this off-season.
A
Braves fan on Twitter said that Wren was told he had to slash $10 million from what was the original allotment for 2010, so
that makes it a little more understandable that they went cheap and rolled the dice with Glaus. I'd have signed Garrett Atkins
in that case; but this only makes the Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, Tim Hudson and Chipper Jones contracts look all the worse.
Joe
at Statistician Magician writes two comments, one RE Glaus; the other a question:
The
Braves do need another bat, but taking on Glaus for very little money is not a "stupid" deal. I must disagree. Worst
case scenario, they have a good option off the bench. But you are right when you say they need someone more reliable, and
that they do...
Who is "fuckbrain?"
Strangely, the Braves still have enough pitching to make the playoffs even with the Glaus signing,
but there's a difference between a possible playoff run and being a contender to win the World Series.
Jeff and I have been discussing the individual we refer to as "fuckbrain"
on Twitter; it's not confidential material as to who "fuckbrain" is, but the context is relegated to Boss/Underboss
for legitimate personal reasons.
Regarding "fuckbrain" I say the following: Now Joe, if you hadn't disappeared from under my auspices for several
months without a word, there was every possibility of a promotion to Florida Captain despite your tendency toward stat zombieness;
with that, there was the chance of inclusion in knowing said privileged information. As of right now, you've got a way to
go to get back in my good graces. Only then (if it happens) will you learn the identity of "fuckbrain" who isn't
much of anything to worry about anyway.
A year ago, almost to the day, the Yankees were
avidly pursuing C.C. Sabathia who appeared to have little-to-no interest in either the Yankees or New York. Had they not been
the club that would pay him the most money, he wouldn't have even considered them. It was well-known that Sabathia preferred
playing closer to home on the West Coast; and if Northern California wasn't an option, then Southern California was suitable.
Story-after-story came out regarding
Sabathia's reluctance with the Yankees and seemed to get worse with each passing day. There was a realistic implication that
Sabathia did not want to play on the East Coast and definitely didn't want to deal with the circus to which the Yankees
had slowly reverted in the intervening years since their last championship. Gone were the days of feistiness and team-oriented
play that was the hallmark of the Joe Torre-era; the selflessness that was epitomized by Paul O'Neill; Tino Martinez; Derek
Jeter; Mariano Rivera; Bernie Williams, et al.
Replaced by gifted players who neither had the wherewithal nor the mental toughness to thrive under the microscope
of the big stage, the Alex Rodriguezes, Robinson Canos and Carl Pavanos were poisoning what it was that made those Yankees
championship teams more than the sum of their statistical parts. ARod would put up the numbers to win you your fantasy league,
but that fantasy would turn into a fatal attraction by October.
Torre was gone too. As the steadying hand that guided those Yankee teams, the Frank Sinatra of the
Baseball World could charm anyone and everyone; a simple phone call uttering the words, "we want you" could turn
the tide for any player who was unsure of playing in New York, reluctant to deal with the whole thing from the newspapers,
to the media, to the fans, to the traffic.
People don't want to hear this now, but Joe Girardi's reputation as being a micromanaging pain went back to his days
with the Marlins and followed him through 2008. A manager who'd been teammates with his stars and was totally inexperienced
with every aspect of what the job entailed was experiencing growing pains under the same microscope that awaits anyone entering
the three ring circus that is New York.
Did Sabathia need to subject himself to that? Did he want to enter a toxic clubhouse on the opposite coast from his
home and sign up for seven years of hell? The question was never whether Sabathia could handle New York mentally or physically;
the question was whether he needed the aggravation. In the end, it was the Yankees money and Brian Cashman's relentless (and
desperate) hustle that assuaged Sabathia's fears about New York after a long, drawn-out negotiation that had more to do with
the state of the club than dollars.
Not only did Sabathia agree to come to New York, but he made the area his home year-round. He was all in; and it paid off
as he was the durable ace----even in the playoffs and World Series----that the Yankees paid all that money for.
Now, there's similar speculation going on with Jason
Bay and the Mets.
This is not to imply
that Bay is a star of the magnitude of C.C. Sabathia; but he's still fine hitter and carried the Red Sox for chunks of 2009
as he proved that he could not only perform under pressure, but thrive in the middle of the gathering storm.
The Mets want Bay and, according to most accounts,
currently have the only viable offer on the table that comes anywhere close to the years and dollars that Bay wants. It's
also believed that Bay would prefer not to play for the Mets or in Citi Field. Day-by-day another story appears at the desperation
the Bay camp is feeling not just because of the prospect of going to the Mets; but because the market is still saturated with
options for a bat if the Mets do an about face and tell Bay to make a decision or take a hike.
The Red Sox would have to be very creative with their payroll and
outfield configuration if they jumped back in with Bay, and Bay would have to concede in his demands to remain in Boston.
The Mariners aren't going to pay Bay especially now that they have Milton Bradley and Chone Figgins and have to worry about
the possibility of keeping both Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez. The Giants need Bay's bat, but he's said to not want to go
to San Francisco at all. The Cardinals? Maybe. The Angels? They lurk and strike, so if the Mets have a competitor for Bay's
services, it's them. None of these teams seem inclined to surpass the Mets offer for Bay.
So now what?
The Mets must do what the Yankees did with Sabathia. Cashman, while aggressive and smart, can't even
carry Mets GM Omar Minaya's briefcase when it comes to charisma. What Minaya must do is get a face-to-face with Bay and lay
out exactly what went wrong with the Mets on and off the field and why those things won't happen again in 2010; and also a
deliver a detailed plan of why things will go right with Bay as an integral part of the turnaround.
Objectively, the number of things that collapsed for the Mets in
2009 won't happen again because short of a meteor hitting Citi Field on team picture day, what went wrong for the Mets in
2009 couldn't happen again. Jose Reyes will be back; they'll find a catcher, be it Bengie Molina or Ryan Doumit;
the injuries that descended into the absurd are impossible to repeat. Even with their current roster, a healthy Mets team
is right back around .500 without doing one thing. If they bring in Bay and the other improvements needed, they're right back
in playoff contention no matter what Bill Madden, John Harper, Mike Lupica, Michael Kay and anyone else says or writes.
The Yankees faced similar naysayers last winter. The
Red Sox were smarter and deeper; the Rays were young and hungry; but they turned things around and won a title a year after
enduring the ridicule and embarrassment of missing the playoffs with a $200+ million payroll. The Mets could make a similar
leap. The Phillies are vulnerable and overconfident; the Braves may have taken a wrecking ball to their hopes in the span
of 24-hours with two blockheaded maneuvers; the Marlins are due for a fallback; and the Mets a little luck after everything
that's happened from October 2006 until now.
It took two years for Minaya to transform a club that was a rudderless laughingstock in 2004 and bring them one game away
from the World Series two years later; a World Series they would've won had it not been for Duaner Sanchez's yen for a midnight
snack and a Cardinals team playing with magic on their side. With a healthy Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and
John Maine; Francisco Rodriguez closing; and a full year of the feisty and infectious attitude of Jeff Francoeur; the Mets
could be right back in the thick of things and more. Once they lock up Bay, the other dominos would start to fall.
If he's the player they want, they should go get him
and convince him just as the Yankees convinced Sabathia that things were different. Money's a factor, but not the only factor;
and the state of the club and clubhouse isn't as bad as it's portrayed in the media. All they have to do is convince the players
of that. Who better to do that than the likable and charming GM?
They can't let these fortuitous openings slip away because they're being handed to them on a platter;
the worst thing to do is slap it away in a fit of pique.
Strangling the zombies:
The chat I had with a stat zombie on Twitter the other day exemplified what it is that annoys people like me with those
that are so immersed in numbers that they haven't the faintest idea what a human being is anymore.
Truth be told, he wasn't as bad nor as pompous and condescending as the
majority of them, but that still didn't stop him from reverting to the old and patently ridiculous argument of: if you were
right, you were lucky; and if we were wrong, it's because the players didn't live up to their numbers.
Do you finally start to realize what I'm dealing with?
How infuriating it can be talking with someone who has this attitude of dismissal that a 264 page book I wrote consisting
of dozens of accurate predictions varying from the rise of the Marlins and Giants to Roy Halladay quietly asking for a trade
is little more than a byproduct of luck? That their projections were brilliant when hindsight proves that they didn't know
what they were talking about? And what's worse is that they are physically and psychologically incapable of uttering the words
"I was wrong" about anything. There's always some caveat, alibi or excuse to explain it away.
Pardon me, there is something worse. It's when they simply
ignore that about which they were wrong. You don't here the experts along the lines of Dave Cameron and Nate Silver admit
to being wrong about anything. It's fine when Silver is the toast of the world for his political numbers crunching or being
right about the 2008 Rays, but when they're wrong? Well, just ignore it like it never happened for expediency; for moneymaking;
for the artifice of expertise and hope others are afraid to challenge them and ignore it.
No matter how it's twisted, the crunching of numbers is not analysis.
Regardless of the myriad of ways in which they try to boil human beings down to what pops from their calculators, building
a team is not the same as building a rocket ship.
Short of strangulation, I don't know how to respond to arguments such as that.
Yeah. I was wrong about certain things in my book. I picked the Indians
to win the AL Central; I picked the Cubs to go to the World Series; among many other things. But I have no problem facing
my errors and admitting them as being wrong. There's no shame in being wrong. It's not a sign of weakness to make that admission;
in fact, it's a sign of strength. But I'm not trying to sell a school of thought or start a revolution. I'm focused on reality
unlike the zombies.
It never
ends.
Billy Beane is running for his
life from the towering inferno of Moneyball; the hard-core stat zombies still inexplicably defend Paul DePodesta's
tenure as Dodgers GM; they advocate Sandy Alderson for jobs as the CEO of numerous clubs despite his destruction of the Padres.
Will they ever get it?
Ever?
You tell me.
Viewer Mail 12.25.2009:
Gabriel
(Capo) writes RE the Blue Jays:
I know the Blue Jays someday will be good. They have
a pretty good young team, and we are always praying for Vernon Wells.
Merry Xmas to all your dearest from the Gutierrez
family.
The Blue Jays aren't that far away especially if Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch come back quickly. That
rotation is young and talented with the addition of Brandon Morrow. Considering what J.P. Ricciardi did to the club during
his tenure, it could be much, much worse.
The Angels will have their hands full with the Mariners
this year. Matsui will be a great addition to their lineup but after losing Lackey, I wonder about their pitching.
Tell you
what, if I had to make my predictions today, I'd have both the Angels and the Mariners in the playoffs with the Mariners edging
out the Red Sox for the Wild Card. The Angels will be there. Trust me.
The Glaus signing is a good move. I know that he may
get hurt or be ineffective, but it is only $2 million. If they don't make another move, then I question what they are doing,
as Vazquez probably should have landed them a solid hitter. But Glaus, for cheap, who can play two positions--and that means
fill in for Chipper when he misses time, if of course Glaus isn't missing time as well--is a good move to me.
So for a team that needed a proven basher who would
be guaranteed to produce, Troy Glaus is a good move?
I don't care about money; I care about results. This was a cheapskate move because the Braves have either blown all their
remaining payroll on the likes of Kenshin Kawakami, Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson, or simply don't know what they're doing; and
if (when) Chipper and Glaus get hurt, who's playing first? And what if both get hurt? Then what?
Troy Glaus is not the bat the Braves needed. The needed the available
Miguel Cabrera and got Melky Cabrera. The Braves have made their own mess for what was a title contender a week ago. Now they're
back amongst the rabble with two stupid deals in a 24-hour period and it's their own fault.
The Mets Off-Season Gets Better And Better (Seriously)
If the Mets do something,
it'll be a bigger win:
Is it possible to have a productive off-season while watching sitting around and
watching rivals make tragic blunders and simultaneously biding one's time to get quality on the cheap?
We're in the process
of finding out as the Mets have done next-to-nothing this winter while both the Phillies and Braves have made bizarre maneuvers
to weaken themselves and open a chasm big enough for an elephant to walk through for the Mets to jump right back into contention.
I went into great detail last week of the various missteps taken
by the Phillies as they've traded one ace (Cliff Lee) for another (Roy Halladay); brought in a second baseman to play third
base (Placido Polanco); short-sightedly exercised Jimmy Rollins's 2011 contract option out of fear more than anything else;
and have yet to address glaring issues in the bullpen and back of their rotation.
Now, in the space of 24 hours, the Braves have taken a team that was well-positioned to reclaim
their throne from the 1991-2005 and dragged themselves back to the pack with two deals that make absolutely no sense at all.
The trade of Javier Vazquez to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera and two minor leaguers was a salary dump, plain and simple. What
was worse though, was GM Frank Wren's insistence that he was going to bring in an impact bat to bolster the Braves lineup.
A basher is exactly what the Braves needed even without Vazquez; and Wren's solution was to sign....Troy Glaus.
Um.
Troy Glaus?
If I were a Braves fan, I'd be livid.
Melky Cabrera has a flair for the dramatic
and is useful, but he's not an impact player. Then the clear decision to jettison Adam LaRoche in favor of Glaus isn't just
bewildering, it's absurd. When healthy, Glaus has been a productive player----but that's the key, when he's healthy. At age
33 and having missed almost the entire 2009 season with shoulder surgery, Glaus is a player who's signed to roll the dice
in an attempt to bolster an already strong lineup. In fact, it would've made more sense for the Phillies to sign Glaus instead
of Polanco to play third; but for the Braves? No way.
It's not just the injuries that would concern me with Glaus; it's that he was outed
as having failed a PED test in the Mitchell Report. Steroid and HGH users tend to start having injury problems to areas such
as the shoulders, ankles and wrists that are more difficult from which to recover than a simple hamstring pull. It could be
that Glaus's body is breaking down; the days of players being able to perform into their middle-30s are long gone. Is this
really Wren's idea of an "impact" bat?
The Braves are a team that was one power bat away
from being the best team in the National League----and by power bat, I'm talking about Miguel Cabrera; Adrian Gonzalez;
or even a flawed player like Adam Dunn, from whom an interested club would know what they're getting. Instead, to inhabit
the opposite infield corner from the injury-prone Chipper Jones, the Braves sign Glaus. The returning from surgery Carlos
Delgado would've been a better option than Glaus for probably the same money ($2 million guaranteed plus incentives). This
is a big mistake for the Braves.
What's worse is that they're providing hollow excuses for the bizarre machinations of the past
several days. It's obvious that there are very serious financial restraints hampering the Braves from doing the drastic things
that need to be done to import that power bat. They're mentioning young Freddie Freeman as their first baseman of the future who might be ready by 2011 and that they didn't want to block his path by going long-term
with LaRoche; well, Freeman is 19 and struggled in a brief trial at Double A last season. Are they expecting him to be ready
to take over in a year's time?
The "centerpiece" to the Vazquez trade is supposedly Arodys Vizcaino, who just turned 20. Are the Braves trying to win now or in 2013?
All of this is emanating from the same organization
that just signed Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner for their bullpen at a combined $10 million; are on the hook with Jones for
$39 million through 2012; gave Tim Hudson a $28 million extension after he pitched in seven games returning from Tommy John-surgery
and, objectively, pitched okay, not great and not bad; and have a guaranteed $58 million going to Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami.
These are
not examples of dollars well-spent since they haven't got any money left to make that one addition they needed to launch themselves
into title contention.
Who's to blame for this?
Ownership will bear the brunt of public ridicule, but the same ownership okayed the above deals;
are they to blame for the misallocation of money on players in their late 30s? I said at the time the Jones contract----based
on loyalty and severance----would come back to haunt them, and so it is. Is GM Frank Wren responsible? Team president John
Schuerholz? Who?
Like the Phillies with their incomprehensible decision to trade one ace for another rather than address issues, the
Braves have weakened themselves from what they could've been. A few weeks ago, I said the Braves were an underrated championship
contender, now they're still one of the better teams in the National League, but rather than other teams having to catch up
to them, they've come crawling back to the pack through their own faulty judgements. They've done this to themselves.
If I were advising the
Mets, Giants, Cardinals, Rockies, Dodgers and other teams that were watching with concern as to what the Phillies and Braves
were doing, I'd tell them to simply shrug and let them continue to step on one landmine after another. Take the gifts bestowed
upon you, because they just keep on coming.
Note: Yesterday I said it was GM Frank Wren who made the decision to trade for Mark Teixeira from the Rangers in
2007 when it was in fact John Schuerholz who made that trade in the waning days of his tenure as GM.
Angels sign Fernando Rodney:
The Angels strategy has always been to spend
their money on pitching----starting and relieving----before anything else. While they need a power bat, they've bolstered
their bullpen by signing former Tigers closer Fernando Rodney to a 2-year, $11 million deal. Rodney throws very, very hard
and is a viable replacement for Brian Fuentes as closer if Fuentes again struggles.
I'm not the biggest fan of Rodney despite
his high-90s fastball. He gives up a lot of home runs and sometimes loses the strike zone, but Angels manager Mike Scioscia
has been able to coax good performances from veteran bullpen pickups, so Rodney will be of use.
What I'm wondering about is where this
leaves Scot Shields. Shields was the unheralded hero of the Angels bullpen for years and is recovering from knee surgery.
Once the best and most durable set-up man in baseball, Shields's absence cost the Angels dearly in the playoffs against the
Yankees. It was Shields who was the key for the Angels as he did the bulk of the heavy lifting in the late innings allowing
Francisco Rodriguez to rack up the saves. He's expected to be ready for 2010, but obviously, the addition of Rodney moves
Shields up to the seventh inning instead of the eighth.
I'd trust Shields more than both Rodney and Fuentes any day of the week.
Viewer Mail 12.24.2009:
Gabriel (Capo) writes RE
the Blue Jays trade of Brandon League for Brandon Morrow:
I like League. He would work as a great setup man, provided he finds his
2008 control. I don't know about Morrow, but I'm preparing for a long, long season with the Blue Jays' rotation filled with
youngsters.
I love League's fastball, but I've been waiting
for years for him to become more than what he's been----an occasionally useful reliever with a power fastball of nearly 100
mph----and he hasn't. Trust me when I tell you, you've got a winner in Morrow. Out from under the Tim Lincecum albatross and
the way the Mariners jerked him around, he's going to be a big winner if the Blue Jays do what's right and make him a starter.
He could be a solid number 2 easily.
On another note, after rumors had the minor leaguer the Blue Jays were sending the newly acquired Brett
Wallace to Seattle as the minor leaguer, it's actually minor league outfielder Yohermyn Chavez , a 20-year old, 6'3", 200 pounder with good numbers.
I wouldn't get too down about the Blue Jays future. Alex Anthopolous is
starting to look like he knows what he's doing and they're loaded with pitching. The division's hell, but they'll be respectable
with a couple more smart moves.
Jeff (Acting Boss) at Red State Blue State writes RE Ryan Church, Jeff Francoeur and the Braves:
"Melky not Miguel" -- Funny stuff!
I look forward to seeing
the "bag-of-balls-off" competition between Francoeur and Church through a whole season. So far, Francoeur is way
ahead. The dude actually has a job.
Church doesn't, nor did he ever, have Francoeur's physcial gifts. No matter what happens, making that move was brilliant
on the part of the Mets. Someone will sign Church and they'll get what any team gets from Ryan Church, good defense; a homer
here and there; brainlock; and frustration. Trust me on that.
I think this trade is just great...it does nothing to stop the Phillies repeating as
NL East champs again... Merry Christmas to you and your family, hope you have fun and enjoy...:-)
Um, You Do Realize You Just Traded For Melky And Not Miguel, Right?
It had to be asked:
I'm not being smarmy. I'm just making sure that Braves GM Frank
Wren is aware that Melky Cabrera and Miguel Cabrera are two different breeds of Cabrera.
On the surface, it appears to be a questionable move for both sides
as the Yankees and Braves completed a trade yesterday. The deal went as follows:
To the Yankees:
RHP Javier Vazquez; LHP Boone Logan
To the Braves: OF Melky Cabrera; LHP Mike Dunn; RHP Arodys
Vizcaino
For the Yankees:
Personally,
I would not bring Vazquez back to the scene of the crime after the way his first stint with the club degenerated into a disaster;
and I'm not only referring to the nightmare that is rekindled with the dreaded words: "2004 ALCS, Game Seven".
The debacle of game seven was the final insult in
a second half crash in which Vazquez went from All Star to train wreck. It was a rapid fall. You need only to look at his
2004 Game Logs to see how horrifically Vazquez was rocked all through July, August and September.
Vazquez has been a durable, innings-eater who should be at least serviceable
as a fourth starter for the Yankees. He's not going to be as good as he was for the Braves in 2009. The move to the National
League and Turner Field helped him improve from what he was with the White Sox from 2006-2008.
White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen couldn't stand Vazquez and questioned
his mental toughness----an assertion not without anecdotal and statistical merit given his atrocious performances in every
playoff game in which he's appeared. He hasn't just pitched poorly in his playoff appearances; he's been non-competitive to
the tune of a 10.34 ERA in four appearances, with 24 hits, 18 earned runs and six homers allowed in 24 innings; and
it's not as if it was one bad game that rocketed his numbers into the stratosphere; he's been universally horrendous in each
and every one of his playoff opportunities. Every one.
It's hard to pigeonhole Vazquez as any one particular thing because he's been so up-and-down in his career. He was a rising
star in relative obscurity with the Expos; looked like a Cy Young Award contender with the Yankees in 2004 and fell apart;
was traded to the Diamondbacks where he was, at best, mediocre; was then sent to the White Sox where he was bad in 2006 and
2008 and okay in 2007; then he had the big year with the Braves in which he should've won 22 games.
Which Vazquez are the Yankees getting?
Can he handle New York in this second chance?
In the cosmic scheme of things, the Yankees are getting one year of Vazquez
for Melky Cabrera and two minor leaguers, so it's not as if they're giving up a key member of the club. They're not going
to be asking Vazquez to come in and be the number one or two starter they demanded in 2004; he'll be their fourth starter
unless A.J. Burnett's injury bug returns (not a possibility to dismiss out of hand given Burnett's history); and it allows
them to finally come to a conclusion with Joba Chamberlain and stick him in the bullpen once and for all. (Of course, they
might put Phil Hughes back out there even though it makes no sense when Joba Chamberlain belongs in the bullpen.)
Vazquez's $11 million salary in 2010 is negligible
because of the argument (I think proffered by Joel Sherman yesterday) that they were going to have to pay Cabrera about $3
million in arbitration anyway, so that's pretty much a wash for a pitcher from whom they can at least guarantee they'll get
200 innings in exchange for an outfielder who wasn't going to play very much and would never achieve a greater value than
he has now.
Even with all of the
reasons to make the move, I would've shied away from Vazquez if I were the Yankees. I'm reluctant to indulge in second acts
with players who've failed in a certain locale once before. It's like re-marrying a once-divorced spouse----history's proven
that if it didn't work the first time, it probably won't work the second time either.
Boone Logan is a lefty who throws very, very hard and will easily replace Phil Coke and more. Logan has fared much better
against righties in his career than he has lefties, but he can get both out. This is an underrated pick-up.
For the Braves:
I've had just about all I can take of hearing about the one trade that
has made GM Frank Wren appear as if he knows what he's doing. Every time I mention Wren's multitude of missteps on and off
the field, I hear the following: Jair Jurrjens for Edgar Renteria.
Fair enough. That was a literal steal. But aside from that, Wren has alienated Braves legends Tom Glavine
and John Smoltz; aggravated manager Bobby Cox to the point that Cox wanted to quit last spring; has been so out of touch with
reality that he's made aggressive acquisitions when they were foolhardy (Mark Teixeira), and they traded those assets for
almost nothing (Teixeira for Casey Kotchman); he almost single-handedly destroyed Jeff Francoeur; and is reviled
by the players.
The Braves still have
such a deep pitching staff that they're legitimate title contenders next year...if they get a power bat. Wren insists that
he's going to get said bat because even he realizes that Melky Cabrera is not said bat----I think.
Despite assertions to the contrary, this trade is more of a salary dump
than anything else because the talent the Braves got back is far less than what one would expect they should've gotten
after the year Vazquez had and they couldn't give Derek Lowe away because of his massive contract.
Now their rotation will have the question mark of Kenshin Kawakami
at the back end; a youngster in Tommy Hanson (don't discount the reality of a sophomore slump and the hitters adjusting to
a young pitcher); an angry Derek Lowe; a still returning from injury Tim Hudson (did they have to give him a 3-year
deal?); and the sublime budding superstar Jurrjens.
We'll have to see what the Braves do next because judging from Wren's history, I'd be very concerned that he's going
to do something stupid in his quest for a bat. There's a history there; the history is pretty extensive; and it's not good.
The wheeling and dealing Nats:
I can certainly understand the Nationals wanting to
bring in a recognizable name or two to drum up some interest in the club while they wait for the Stephen Strasburg era to
begin, but how much better are Jason Marquis, Brian Bruney and Eddie Guardado going to make them, if at all?
Any offense with Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Josh
Willingham isn't that terrible and with slightly better pitching, they won't lose 103 games again, so putting a better product
on the field is a smart enough idea as long as people don't get carried away and think the Nats are suddenly going to win
75 games.
As for their pursuit of John
Smoltz, I have no clue why Smoltz would want to go to Washington and endure 90+ losses when it's reasonable to presume he'd
have other options for better clubs in the National League to work as a starter or reliever. Smoltz does still have something
left and no one has a right to tell him to retire if he still wants to try and pitch; but if he goes to the Nationals I'd
have to question his motives. What's the point?
Yeah,
I wanted to read about this too...
Here's a teaser line from ESPN.com's "Rumor Central" (I prefer to call it "Imagination Central",
but that's neither here nor there):
Rumors: Beane, now running from Moneyball
Anyone who reads me with any frequency at all knows I'd be all over that not just to read it, but to
unload on Beane, Michael Lewis, et al if the "rumor" is what the title implies. It sounds like a foundation for
hilarity and could be folded right into my continued construction of the ultimate weapon. The problem is that the link leads
to ESPN's Imagination Central and there's nothing about Billy Beane running from Moneyball. I've clicked on it again and again
to see if there was simply a slight delay in the addition popping up and...nothing.
Isn't it great to be the "Worldwide Leader in Sports"?
With dogmatic, clownish and mean-spirited bloggers;
clueless and inept reporters (except for Jayson Stark and Jerry Crasnick); and overt buffoonery more interested in palling
around with the players and acting inanely like Chris Berman, ESPN is a traveling carnival masquerading as a credible organization
to disseminate sports news. They're a farce.
If you're waiting for them to get their heads out of their asses, I suggest you move on because it ain't gonna happen. Ever.
Nice article on Francoeur. If he had Beane's "genius"
and Brad Pitt swagger and good looks, I'd make him an Hall of Famer right now. That IS how it works, right?
No chance in hell the Yankees get Vazquez. One of your
best predictions ever!
I was shocked that they went down that road again.
As I said above, it does sorta make sense. I wouldn't be so quick to bow to Brian Cashman's judgment on pitchers though. Within
a two year period, the Yankees have gone from relying on the three young starters (about whom they were warned by me over-and-over
again----it's in writing too) to spending, spending, spending on veterans; dumping Ian Kennedy and shifting either Chamberlain
or Hughes to the bullpen.
As for the
prediction, I like the quick resolution. I was wrong almost immediately after making it! No ambiguity. We can move on!
Well, I think we can all agree on one thing: Frank Wren
is a freakin' GENIUS! (I hope my sarcasm isn't wasted over the internet).
What's worse? That he's inept or that he's also a jerk?
The "Welcome to Atlanta, Miguel Cabrera!" will have to go back to the printer once he realizes he's actually getting
Melky and not Miguel. No refunds, either.
See, a commenting section. Isn't it nice? :) I updated
my blog finally. Don't know how frequently I will do so, but there is a post up! I don't care about the Coco signing as much
as you. Because Beane must have a plan. I can't see him spending money without some kind of plan. And Coco is going to track
down plenty of balls in that outfield. $5.5 million isn't all that much...
There's a commenting section on my main site and the absence of an any and all comers makes it more of an incentive
for people to write something worthwhile.
Just a bit of advice RE updating? If you don't post regularly, even your most loyal readers will abandon you and stop bothering
to check in.
With Crisp, I couldn't
care less what Beane does aside from the fact that with each bizarre maneuver and passing day, the farce that Moneyball is
becomes even more evident and proves my point about pure anarchy being the more logical way to go than trying to boil human
beings down to their statistical parts. (That might explain why I'm a Mets fan. Hmmm. EPIPHANY!!!!)
I've gone into the crapulent nature of the statement: "well, he must
know what he's doing!". Sometimes people who screw up didn't have a sensible outcome in mind. Sometimes they just
screwed up or are doing things because they can't figure out what else to do. Coco Crisp adds absolutely nothing to the A's
except more ammunition with which I can blast away at Billy Beane. In that respect, I heartily approve.
On
first blush, I hated this trade. But for now I'm just going to reserve judgment on it. Second of all, I think its hard to
deny the fact that the prospects that Wren got back for Vazquez were greater than the prospects he gave up. So essentially
he got a free year of Vazquez, plus upgrade Tyler Flowers (who was blocked at the MLB level by McCann) into a better prospect.
We'll see what this turns into. I've heard everything from AGonz to X. Nady.
If it turns into X. Nady, bad move. If it allows this to turn Javy Vazquez into Adrian Gonzalez, without giving up Hanson
or Heyward, f'ing amazing trade.
But I guess my overall point is that this just can't
be proof that Wren is a bad GM, since he's leaving Javy Vazquez after getting a career best year and getting back more than
he gave up to get him.
It's kind of funny that you approved of the Lowe contract,
hated the original JV trade, yet they turned out totally backwards.
If you're going to say Wren is an awful GM,
you're basically saying that the D. Lowe contract outweighed all the other moves that worked out. And no, I refuse to believe
that giving up Francouer for a bag of balls was a bad move until Francouer actually has a full season of being an above replacement
level bat.
As bad as Vazquez was over the past five years (ignoring his innings-eating),
who could possibly have expected anything more than a 13-10 type year from him even with going to the National League? The
guy was great, which makes the get-back of Melky Cabrera look all the worse!
Flowers can really hit if you look at his minor league numbers and he's an on-base machine; you
can't judge a trade like that especially with Flowers about to turn 24; his upside is way past Melky Cabrera's and for a catcher?
Forget it. Plus he can play first base as well.
Lowe was horrible for most of last year after having
been quite good for the Dodgers in the previous four years. Did he hit the wall? Or was he in a slump? Or were his mechanics
off? Who knows? The thing about the contract isn't the amount of money itself, but that the $45 million still owed to Lowe
precipitated the trade of Vazquez because no one wanted Lowe even with the Braves willing to take a chunk of his salary. It's
not an individual contract that I look at when assessing; it's whether a certain contract prevents other necessary moves or
causes such things as the Vazquez trade.
I don't see how you can get Gonzalez without giving
up Heyward or Hanson (neither of which I would do); the Padres are under no mandate to trade Gonzalez now.
My judgment of Wren has nothing to do with the Vazquez trade; it has to do with his whole body of work going back to
his days with the Orioles. I have to question the sanity and/or rationality of an executive with the Orioles who thought he
could win an organizational tug of war with Cal Ripken Jr. Then the tragicomedy with how he botched the Glavine/Smoltz situations;
the Teixeira trades, etc. His talent evaluation skills leave something to be desired and he's loathed by what seems to be
everyone. That's a problem. Say what you want about Omar Minaya, but people like him personally.
With Francoeur, I find it hilarious that when the trade was made, it was
almost universally regarded as a win for the Braves. All I heard in response to my saying how much I loved the trade was that
"Church is a better player". Well, it didn't take long for the Braves to see what Church was----streaky, with a
great arm and a penchant for having brainlock---and decide to bench him. It's not as if I didn't warn you and everyone else
about him.
Then when Church gets
released, I hear, "the Braves were going to non-tender Francoeur anyway". And now Church is the equivalent of a
"bag of balls"? What's the excuse going to be if Francoeur plays as well for the Mets over the course of a full
season as he did after his arrival? The guy lit the place up on and off the field. It was like he was let out of prison. Why
not just say that the Braves didn't get enough for a player of Francoeur's natural, if raw, talents; they shouldn't have traded
him within the division where he'll have a multitude of chances to come back to haunt them; and move on? That would be better
than continually moving the goalposts for convenience in defending a move that was ridiculous then, now and in the future
no matter what happens.
Alright, so I'm developing a man-crush on Jeff
Francoeur.
Shut up and leave me alone.
In all seriousness, with the way Jason Bay and Bengie
Molina are holding out for more money and years and/or really don't want to play for the Mets, anyone who is even a potential
acquisition for the Mets should look at how Francoeur, the Mets organization and the fans developed a strange and heartwarming
bond almost immediately after he arrived as a wounded and abused animal from the Braves.
Jeff Francoeur wanted to be a Met.
It was as simple as that. It took no time whatsoever for the connection
to develop and it had little more to do with an enthusiastic smile and the attitude that he was proud to put on that uniform;
happy to be playing in New York for a staggering and battered team ravaged by injuries.
Possibly it was because they were kindred spirits. Francoeur had
gone from the would-be superstar; the hometown hero and Sports Illustrated cover boy, to ridiculed pariah and lightning rod
for everything that had gone wrong with the Braves as their decade-and-a-half of National League dominance came to a close.
"Francoeur has no plate discipline."
"He's a disappointment."
"He
needs to go back to the minors."
"Get him outta here."
"BOOOOOOOOO!!!!!"
All are examples of the things that Francoeur had to endure as his star fell
in Atlanta. In addition to being cast out by the same fans and upper management that had anointed him as the next great superstar,
he was doing it in front of friends and family every home game he played. Suggestions, entreaties and outright demands were
placed on the shoulders of a 25-year-old former star athlete who'd been accorded privileges and accolades because of his abilities.
It was only when he faltered that what he could do was secondary to what he couldn't. As his game was found wanting,
members of the Braves organization soured on him. The scrutiny increased and the criticism from inside the club permeated
to the media and fans and spread like an easily contracted virus.
It was a vicious circle. The more pressure that was placed on him, the worse he did; the worse
he did, the more he was ripped by his bosses; the more his bosses unloaded on him to the media, the more negative stories
appeared about that "swing at everything" strategy. The same strategy that was so charming at first and okayed with
winks and nods of "Jeff being Jeff", was now a detriment; his penchant for speaking his mind went from the confidence
of a brash rookie, to a youngster who didn't know his place; and the fans, expecting a homegrown, hometown MVP turned on him
with stunning and brutal speed.
This onus showered down on an athlete who'd known nothing but success at every level must've made the pressure unbearable;
and it's easily forgotten that he was still in his early 20s. Eventually, there was nothing left to do but dispatch him as
the Braves stupidly did for a player without half of Francouer's abilities in Ryan Church, who notably was benched and then
released by the Braves.
When he
arrived in New York, it was as if the weight of the world had been removed from his shoulders and replaced by a dogged determination
to shove it to his former club in every way possible. As the Mets and Braves were the two best teams in the National league
in the late 90s, the animosity and rivalry was palpable. Such a trade----no matter how minuscule or of dual benefit----would've
happened back then; but the circumstances were right in the summer of 2009. The Mets wanted to be rid of Church; the Braves
of Francoeur and there was a fortunate match.
The attitude of "he's the Mets problem now" fits right into the emotional and self-immolating management style of
Braves GM Frank Wren. The attitude got him fired as Orioles GM as he decided it was a good idea to take on Cal Ripken Jr in
an organizational power struggle (smart move) and it's going to haunt him with Francoeur. In fact, it's Wren's lack of movement
right now that's well on the way to sabotaging a Braves team that is one power bat away from being the favorites to win the
pennant in the National League. Marlon Byrd won't cut it.
The Mets accepted Francoeur for what he is and didn't immediately start to change him into what they wanted him to
be. He's never going to be Nick Johnson. He's never going to walk 100 times a year. But the style he brings onto the baseball
field of running into walls; trash-talking; always ready to fight; and avidly grabbing the leadership role a bad thing? Francoeur
is a football player playing baseball should not be discounted as useless or wrong.
The languid pace, patience and cerebral nature of baseball itself is hard
to reconcile with the out-of-body recklessness that's required to be a good football player. Can Francoeur be trained to take
more pitches and wait for something good to hit instead of hacking at everything that's anywhere within a 50 foot radius of
home plate? Yes. Once it gets around the league that he's not swinging blindly, his walks will increase; he'll see more pitches
to hit and his other numbers will improve naturally without forcefeeding him or smashing a round peg into a square hole destroying
both the peg and the board.
When you
hear some armchair expert/stat zombie ravaging a person who's always been a doer rather than a thinker, the opinions have
to almost ignored entirely. It's not as simple as saying, "well he needs to take more pitches"; or "wait for
a good pitch to hit". Such people have never even picked up a bat and let trends influence them into seeing themselves
as re-inventors of the game. You can't re-train someone who's done something a certain way for his whole life overnight----especially
if he's done it with the tacit approval of coaches and club personnel. You can understand the confusion and betrayal that
Francoeur felt when the entire city of Atlanta turned on him even as he was doing the same things he'd always done; the same
things that made him their golden boy.
It wasn't just the way he played on the field that endeared him to Mets fans. It was the simple act of pride in being a Met.
Such an aura has been sorely lacking in recent years. That's the point and is applicable to the Mets current circumstances
as they wait for answers from free agents to whom they've tendered offers.
If Jason Bay and Bengie Molina are looking for the biggest payday; if they're banking on the Mets'
hysterics at keeping up with the Phillies and Braves by throwing rationality out the window and overpaying for players who
apparently have nowhere else to go, then the Mets should tell them to take a hike; that they're not doing the club any favors
by taking the multi-millions being offered them; that their services are not so desperately required that they're going to
beg them to come.
Bottom line,
if you don't want to be here, then we don't want you and we'll figure something else out despite the alternatives not being
as good.
In years past, the Mets have
overpaid for players who did not really want to be Mets----most notably Bobby Bonilla and Tom Glavine. Glavine was more productive
and loyal as a Met than given credit for and much more so than Bonilla, but in both cases it seemed that they came to New
York because the Mets offered the most money and for no other reason. Bonilla didn't want to leave Pittsburgh; and Glavine
always had his eye on Atlanta.
Panic
is a breeding ground for foolhardiness. And the Mets have been fools long enough signing players who should be more grateful
for their opportunities.
Contrary
to popular belief, the Mets situation isn't as bad as is portrayed. Simply by having their injured players from the current
roster healthy in 2010, they're back at .500 without making one player move. If they bring in a solid starting pitcher; a
power bat or two; and some bullpen help, they're right back in the thick of things with a similar turnaround experienced by
the Rockies in 2009 possible. The Phillies are vulnerable and the Braves are run by a widely-despised GM for whom no one seems
to want to play and upon whom the Hall of Fame manager, Bobby Cox, almost quit in the spring.
The National League is wide open.
If Jason Bay feels he wants to play elsewhere, then lotsa luck.
If Bengie Molina thinks someone is going to offer
him a third guaranteed year, go with God.
The fact is that Bay has nowhere else to go; that Molina is set to make the same mistake he made in 2005 when he
and Ramon Hernandez had identical deals on the table from the Mets, he vacillated so long that the Mets turned around and
traded for Paul LoDuca and Molina was relegated to signing a 1-year contract with the Blue Jays off the bargain rack. The
Mets have to be engaged in discussions with the Pirates about Ryan Doumit, who'd be a better option than Molina anyway. If
Molina waits much longer, he's going to walk into the same trap.
Amid all the criticism he receives for the way he plays the game at 1000 miles an hour, Francouer can
do no wrong with Mets fans because he wants to be a Met. Other players considering the Mets should take heed, as
should the organization. For too long they've compromised for expediency. It's enough. The money and the city should be a
lure to gain players with enthusiasm and excitement about the organization.
If they don't want to be Mets, then the Mets shouldn't want them for any reason or amount of money.
Go somewhere else.
Good riddance.
That was quick:
If Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik traded Brandon Morrow for Brandon League (as
is rumored) and a minor leaguer, then the word "genius" has been yanked off of his forehead far faster than anyone
could ever have anticipated. There's talk that the minor leaguer is the newly acquired prospect Brett Wallace; but so what?
I'm concerned about the "Andy Marte-effect" of a top prospect that teams are all-too-willing to include in trades.
If it indeed is Wallace, then this would be his fourth organization in the span of six months.
League has a power fastball of nearly 100-mph and I've always liked him,
but it's about time for him to start to produce. He's had injury problems and is going to be 27 early next year. Depending
on how the Blue Jays use Morrow, this trade could come back to haunt Zduriencik very, very soon.
I've been saying for months that Morrow needed to get out of Seattle because
of the Tim Lincecum shadow that's following him around. Through no fault of his own, Morrow has become one of the symbols
of the previous Mariners regime led by former GM Bill Bavasi. Morrow was drafted five slots ahead of Lincecum in the 2006
draft and has never heard the end of it as the Washington native Lincecum has developed into one of the top three pitchers
in baseball and Morrow was relentlessly jerked around by the Mariners, shuttling from the bullpen to the rotation to the minors
and back and had numerous injury problems.
With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, of course it looks ridiculous to even consider drafting Morrow ahead of Lincecum;
but was it really so absurd? Morrow is 6'3" and 190 lbs with a prototype pitcher's build and clean mechanics;
Lincecum is listed at 5'10", but is closer to 5'8" if that, and with his unique set of mechanics and training regimen,
does anyone blame the Mariners for looking at Lincecum; the fact that he had a "stage-father" who was insisting
that no one mess with his son's motion or techniques, and saying thanks but no thanks? In comparing the two in 2006, I would've
taken Morrow as well.
While the press
coverage devoted to the starter or reliever debate of Joba Chamberlain in New York still rages, Morrow has in fact been yanked
around worse than Chamberlain; and the main difference is that Chamberlain should be a reliever while Morrow should be a starter.
If the Blue Jays place him in the
starting rotation and leave him be, they've acquired a potential 18-game winner for little more than Brandon League and a
minor leaguer. This could have a giant win and the first domino to fall in the shattering of the myth of the Zduriencik "genius"
because he just screwed up. Badly. Morrow was worth more than League even if Wallace is coming along with him. He should've
gotten much, much more.
You've been
licking too many spikes, my friend:
Regardless of how non-credible the source, it still stuns me how writers search for ways to kneel in front of the faltering
"genius" Billy Beane for still the specious reason of finding way to "exploit market deficiencies".
Here's the clip from Buster Olney's latest bit of
reporting sleight of hand:
Coco Crisp is nearing a deal with the Oakland Athletics, according to late
word from MLB Trade Rumors' Tim Dierkes. Presumably Crisp will slot into Oakland's center field and be flanked by Ryan Sweeney
and Rajai Davis to make up a strong defensive outfield. This is yet another sign that teams that are most shaped by statistical
analysis have determined that defense is the undervalued asset in the current marketplace.
Yah.
Great.
The problem is that Crisp doesn't do much of anything to help a team like
the A's no matter how many heat-seeking rockets he tracks down in left and right center.
The problem is that Crisp can't hit.
I had the A's pegged----in what's shaping up to be a bastard of a
division----for last place with a 73-89 record before they got Crisp; and after the acquisition of Crisp,
I have them pegged (pending other "brilliant" Beane maneuvers)...at 73-89.
Now, I'm no genius, but according to my admittedly rudimentary calculations
(x+y divided by the square root of the hypotenuse, hmmmm)...it's the same thing!!!!
If Crisp were going to a team that actually had guys who could hit, then he'd
be a speedy, defensive asset.
But
the A's can't hit.
You can point
to all the stats you want, but Crisp does nothing for the A's.
This is a move designed by Beane to "do something" since has rebuffed by Marco Scutaro
(that's right----rebuffed by Marco Scutaro); made a giant gaffe by non-tendering Jack Cust two years after he should've traded
him; and is under increasing scrutiny as the Moneyball farce and the label of "genius" is no longer enough to protect
him from his litany of mistakes.
Spin it any way you want, but this is a nothing move. Nothing.
I think perhaps a better question might be "for
what possible reason does anyone need Coco Crisp?" The answer to that may have something to do with the hilarity of his
tweets, but that's about as far as I'd go.
Are his Tweets $5 million hilarious? I doubt it. But
Beane's the genius, not me. Maybe the humor is of the droll, highbrow variety that amuses Beane as he's sipping brandy in
his ascot and robe while pontificating in his well-appointed library with a pompous look of smug superiority on his face.
And then there's the hilarity of his name, Jeff. Never
forget the value in that.
I think I am missing something in Crisp's
inherent value. Oh, to be a genius for only one day and to have the championship rings adorning Beane's fingers...oh,
wait.
Some funny stuff:
First, Beeeebzy, a Twitter friend whose only drawback is that she's a rabid
Yankee fan, wrote the following song parody to the tune of "Santa Baby" (and sang it quite effectively!!) to Brian
Cashman asking for some pitching help. Truth be told, I doubt the song's going to inspire any movement. Cashman's such an
empty suit that her ample charms will go flying right past him, but it's worth a listen for pure creativity and entertainment:
Then there's the reference to Buster Olney "licking too many spikes" from above. It comes
from the disturbing (to put it mildly) ESPN ad from a few months ago. I've posted it before and can't resist doing it again
for the uninitiated. Save it for later if you've just eaten is my advice:
Then there's the old standby----my ode to Billy Beane----in a transference from The Kids in the Hall----that
I literally can watch all day long. "Did I hurt your genius feelings?"
Amid similar expectations over the past two years,
the Diamondbacks have been about as unlucky and underachieving as the Mets.
In a way, it's worse because GM Josh Byrnes was supposed to be one of "them" with his
pedigree of having worked under Theo Epstein with the Red Sox and being well-versed in stat-based analysis. While the Mets
are being ravaged for extending GM Omar Minaya's contract through 2012, Byrnes had his contract extended through 2015
while being far less-effective in practice than Minaya.
What they need: A veteran first baseman; veteran bullpen
help; a utility bat who can play every day if necessary; a back-end starting pitcher.
Free
agents: LHP Doug Davis; LHP Scott Schoeneweis; 1B Chad Tracy; 1B Josh Whitesell
Davis is a veteran innings-eater who guts his way through games with stuff that can't even be accurately described
as mediocre and somehow finds a way to get big league hitters out and win as many games as he loses. He's affordable as back-of-the-rotation
help and will be signed by a contender for more money than the Diamondbacks would offer.
I don't think Davis was all that thrilled with manager A.J. Hinch either.
He's gone.
No one seems to know the state of mind of Schoeneweis after his wife's
death in early 2009. If he pitches, one would expect the Diamondbacks to bring him back.
Tracy looked like he was heading for a borderline All Star caliber career in 2005-2006 when he hit 47 homers and put
up solid numbers across the board, but injuries derailed him and his power disappeared. Someone will sign Tracy on a low-cost
flier and might get a solid backup if nothing else.
Whitesell put up good power/on-base numbers in the
minors, but he wasn't going to get a chance to play in Arizona, so they non-tendered him. Whitesell will be 28 in April, but didn't
hit in his brief trial with the Diamondbacks in 2009. There's something salvageable there in a Jack Cust sort of way, so someone
will sign Whitesell and might get production from him. He's worth a shot.
Players available via trade:
OF Eric Byrnes; 1B/OF Conor Jackson; C Miguel Montero; C Chris Snyder; 3B Mark Reynolds; OF Chris Young
Byrnes is due $11 million in 2010 and has missed
chunks of the past two season with numerous injuries. That said, he's a free agent after 2010 and if he shows he's healthy
in spring training, he's movable for another bad contract. The Diamondbacks might be better off hanging onto Byrnes to see
if they can get something from him rather than take another club's headache. He's been useful on and off the field in the
past. In fact, it was Byrnes who led the Diamondbacks charge into the playoffs in 2006 with his kamikaze style and positive
rage that lit a fire under the whole team.
Like Tracy, Jackson looked to be well on the way to
a productive career when injuries and illness derailed him. He's hitting well in the Dominican Winter League and probably
won't be moved.
The Diamondbacks are willing to trade one of their youngish catchers and
would prefer to deal Snyder, but they'd get more for Montero. Snyder's back is an issue and he's guaranteed over $10 million
through 2011. Until he proves he's healthy, he's hard to trade.
Montero has star potential and isn't going anywhere unless the Diamondbacks are bowled over by an offer.
Reynolds's inclusion on this list might be something of a surprise given his career-year with 44 homers
and feisty clubhouse demeanor, but he's due a huge raise as he's Super Two arbitration eligible and has holes in his game large enough to drive a caravan of Mack trucks through.
Reynolds struck out a whopping 223 times last year and is a rotten fielder
at third base. If some interested party called about Reynolds, the Diamondbacks would listen. He might actually be an option
for the Mets as a basher at the bottom of the lineup if they shifted him to first base. He murdered the ball at Citi Field
to the tune of 4 homers and a .417 average in 16 plate appearances, so the cavernous dimensions didn't bother him at all.
I'd check it out.
Young is due around $24 million through 2013 and was horrific last year.
The only way they move him is if they take an Oliver Perez/Jose Guillen-type contract back in return.
Players
to pursue:
Via free agency: 1B Adam LaRoche (Braves); INF/OF Kelly Johnson (Braves);
RHP Danys Baez (Orioles); INF/OF Melvin Mora (Orioles); OF Rocco Baldelli (Red Sox); LHP Joe Beimel (Rockies); 1B Jason Giambi
(Rockies); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); RHP Kiko Calero (Marlins); 2B Ronnie Belliard (Dodgers); INF Orlando Cabrera (Twins);
OF Johnny Damon (Yankees); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies);
RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); OF Randy Winn (Giants); RHP Miguel Batista (Mariners); 1B Russell Branyan (Mariners); LHP Erik
Bedard (Mariners); RHP Ben Sheets; INF Khalil Greene (Cardinals); INF/OF Mark DeRosa (Cardinals); RHP John Smoltz (Cardinals);
RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); OF Gabe Gross (Rays); RHP Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees); RHP Matt Capps (Pirates); OF Ryan Church (Braves);
RHP D.J. Carrasco (White Sox)
There are bargains to be had even for a club with a limited payroll like
the Diamondbacks. With their trades for Edwin Jackson and Aaron Heilman, the starting rotation is relatively deep. Heilman
will finally get his wish and receive a chance to start; and Jackson is a perfect number 3 behind Bradnon Webb and Dan Haren.
The trade Josh Byrnes made for
Jackson was ridiculed because he sent Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth away in the same deal and only got Jackson and Ian
Kennedy back. I'm no fan of Kennedy in any way shape or form, but he could be a useful bullpen arm or back-end starter if
he learns to keep his mouth shut.*
*Paging Mr. Gibson; Mr. Kirk Gibson to educate Mr. Kennedy----one
way or the other.
As great an arm as Scherzer has, he's a closer, not a starter; and I was
never all that enamored of Schlereth, who's gotten more attention than his talent warrants because his dad is the possible
NFL Hall of Famer Mark Schlereth. Jackson will be more valuable than both. Mark my words.
LaRoche's current market is non-existent, but he's underrated at the plate and in the field.
The bullpen help out there is plentiful. Beimel fills the need for a lefty out of the pen; Baez is worth a roll of
the dice; Batista and Smoltz can both start or relieve.
For veteran rotation help, they could try Bedard or
Sheets. Marquis could find himself shut out of the big money he wants if he's still insisting on a multi-year contract. Pedro
Martinez still wants to pitch and could be a neat fit in Arizona.
DeRosa is lowering his
financial demands, but it's unlikely that he'll lower them enough for the Diamondbacks; it's still something to check on.
He adds to any club on and off the field.
Via trade: OF Melky Cabrera (Yankees); OF Brett
Gardner (Yankees); OF J.D. Drew (Red Sox); LF Carl Crawford (Rays); OF/1B Luke Scott (Orioles); 1B/3B Ty Wigginton (Orioles);
1B Lyle Overbay (Blue Jays); 2B Alexi Casilla (Twins); INF/OF/C Brandon Inge (Tigers); OF/3B/1B Miguel Cabrera (Tigers); 1B
Paul Konerko (White Sox); OF Nelson Cruz (Rangers); RHP Brandon McCarthy (Rangers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); RHP Joe
Blanton (Phillies); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); 3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); OF Jordan Schafer (Braves);
1B Daniel Murphy (Mets); RHP Mike Pelfrey (Mets); RHP Bobby Parnell (Mets); OF Fernando Martinez (Mets); RHP Heath Bell (Padres);
1B Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)
If the Diamondbacks put Reynolds on the market, who knows what they could
get back?
The Rays can deny his availability all they want, but they're not going
to get anywhere in the talks for a contract extension with Crawford, so they'll chat about him. It may not happen until into
the season, but Crawford is going to get traded and Byrnes is an aggressive and ballsy GM.
The Marlins have said they're not trading Cantu, but he can be had. Uggla would be a great addition for the Diamondbacks,
as would Ross.
There were discussions between the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks for Overbay,
who was drafted by Arizona; now that Roy Halladay's been traded, the Blue Jays will be able to get down to business in moving
Overbay as well.
The Diamondbacks may have gutted their farm system to the point that they
don't have enough to get Gonzalez, but it doesn't hurt to ask.
An Amber Alert for Billy
Beane's missing genius:
Coco Crisp?
Is that an acquisition befitting
a "genius"?
As much as I always
knew that Moneyball was a farce, I still thought Athletics GM Billy Beane was a smart guy and one of the top tier club architects
in baseball; but as the days pass and his maneuvers look more like those made of an increasingly unhinged man caving into
the pressure and unrealistic expectations crafted by a cleverly articulated and twisted bit of creative non-fiction by an
agenda-driven reporter----Michael Lewis, who literally knows nothing about baseball----Beane is spiraling downward faster
than Tiger Woods.
Coco Crisp?
For what possible reason do the A's need Coco Crisp?
And this is after Beane traded for journeyman
Jake Fox; non-tendered Jack Cust two years after he should've traded him at peak value; and tried to sign Marco Scutaro to
a 3-year contract for more money than he received from the Red Sox and was rebuffed because Scutaro wanted a chance to win.
(Ouch.)
The number of people backing
me up in the sentiment regarding Beane is rising; strangely, some are from schools-of-thought that should make us natural
enemies. We've reached some common ground----ground in which we're wondering what Beane's doing and if even he knows.
Has the playing field leveled to such a point that
Beane is catering to the anarchy generally reserved for the Dayton Moores of the world? Has Beane resorted to just "doing
stuff" for no reason and trying to use the tag of brilliance and protective cloak of numbers to shield him from criticism?
If so, it's no longer working.
The appellation of genius is being stripped away in layers as the heady days of Moneyball and the so frequently cited stat-based
"revolution"is dying a slow and painful death. So tired has become the floating and faulty statement of "well,
he must know what he's doing" that even the hardest of the hard core stat zombies are looking at Beane with
a jaundiced eye and askance gaze; and that, if nothing else, is the first sign of a long-awaited and expected crash.
Like Jor-EL in Superman, I warned the masses of this
coming catastrophe.
I was ignored and
ridiculed.
Now the Moneyball apocalypse
is coming and the failure to heed my warning is contributing to the inevitable downfall.
Coco Crisp?
Go elsewhere for pity and sympathy because you won't find it here. The house of cards is crumbling
and nothing can prevent the foreseen end. The only question that remains is whether Beane----his seat growing hotter and hotter----will
be fired or allowed to save face by resigning. We'll know ten months from now after another year of carnage for the Athletics.
There's no one left to blame; no stats to be referenced
as an explanation for these ridiculous decisions; no financial constraints blocking the Athletics success; no more Art Howes
or Ken Machas to fire; no more slick talk to distract from the truth; not alibi artists to protect the prophet and implementer
of sabermetrics who, along with Michael Lewis, created this out-of-control Frankenstein monster.
Beane set himself up for this fall. He contributed to it. He helped create
it. And in most circles not a tear will be shed at the speed of his plummet. In an ironic morality tale on a level reserved
for Shakespeare or Rod Serling, the Moneyball saga won't end any other way because it can't
end any other way. It never could.
Coco Crisp?
The Moneyball movie
is on life support as is Beane's "genius" and nothing can save either of them now.
It's appropriate.
It's the only logical conclusion for such a fairy tale when the lightning strike of reality hits.
The Phillies continued an off-season of utter
weirdness. In theory, the Phillies' maneuvers make some semblance of sense if you avidly seek justifications for them; but
in practice they're head-scratching to say the least.
I went into great detail earlier this week regarding Roy Halladay and last month about Placido Polanco. Now, the Phillies
continue to foment their own demise in both the long and the short-term by doing something that makes absolutely no sense
by inexplicably exercising Jimmy Rollins's contract option for 2011 in December of 2009.
For what possible reason did the Phillies think it was a good idea
to exercise Rollins's contract option for 2011 now?
Why?
The
only reason I can come up with is fear, because no other excuse makes any sense whatsoever.
Fear of Rollins's mouth; fear of the fan backlash if the very idea of
the "heart and soul" (for what that's worth) of the Phillies swagger is left to wonder whether he'll be in Philadelphia
past 2010; fear of doing something necessary and smart for the good of the franchise even if it invites the ire of the fans,
players and media.
The truth is that
Rollins is declining----fast.
This isn't
just about the substandard season he had in 2009. It's about his personality and the constitution of his game. As bad as Rollins
was this year (and he was bad), the downfall will be exacerbated by his arrogance and bluster as both prevent him
from making necessary adjustments to remain productive when his speed and range dissipate.
Rollins's defense ebbed noticeably this year; his offense in both 2008
and 2009 was streaky and self-serving; and whereas his yapping was winked and nodded at by teammates while he was winning
the MVP, it's becoming a detriment and tiresome to those who think he's harming their results by making opponents more determined
to beat them and shut Rollins up.
Other players would look realistically into the mirror and realize they're no longer the players they were in their 20s.
Rollins is not one of those players.
Perhaps it was that humongous chip on his shoulder
that allowed an undersized and underestimated player to reach the heights that Rollins has reached; but there's such a thing
as going too far with rebelling against convention.
Speed players who lose their speed have to compensate. Rollins won't compensate.
Hackers who swing at anything and everything have to adjust to the
way the pitchers are handling them. Rollins won't adjust.
Loud mouths who are able to back up their bloviating on the field have to tone down their rhetoric to more acceptable levels
as their skills lessen. Rollins won't tone it down.
It's not hard to see what the pitchers are doing to Rollins. They know he won't take walks; won't wait for a pitch
to hit. They're expanding the strike zone and waiting for him to get himself out. His overaggressiveness is reducing the number
of fat pitches he sees over the course of a game and he's swinging at pitchers' pitches----and his numbers are falling like
an anchor. This is not going to stop.
Do the Phillies realize this?
Rollins
is under contract for $7.5 million in 2010 with an option for $8.5 million in 2011 and a $2 million buyout. I understand the
argument that the $6.5 million difference wasn't worth the aggravation and controversy of making him wait----Rollins was probably
complaining quietly about his contract; such complaining would've become public as early as spring training 2010----but so
what?
Is the 32-year-old Rollins
of 2011 going to justify even that high a salary? Are they paying him severance? Or are they simply pushing the issues aside
because they just don't want to deal with them? And make no mistake, the exercising of this option won't stop Rollins from
complaining about being underpaid as early as May of next year.
Rollins's game was always a short burst of speed followed by a flameout. He's not going to change now.
There's no shame in admitting
one's weaknesses; in fact, it's easier to respect someone who accepts their faults and takes steps to improve----it's an admirable
trait and it takes courage. Jimmy Rollins does not have that courage. He doesn't have that ability. He can't look at himself
as anything other than the five-tool superstar that he was as recently as 2007 and that will only speed his plummet. He's
not that player anymore and the only one who can't see that is Rollins and apparently the Phillies, who are making the same
mistake that other top teams have in recent years by trying desperately to maintain their status and are only succeeding in
flipping the switch to their own demise.
As Ruben Amaro Jr. takes the reins of the organization from Pat Gillick, his decisions are increasingly suspect. It
looks more and more like he's in over his head and is making moves that look good and are easily explainable rather than what's
right for the club. The Halladay trade was, at best, odd; the Polanco signing has all the potential of a disaster; and the
exercising of Rollins's option made no sense.
The Phillies are sowing the seeds for their own downfall; they and their apologists are too blind to see it.
The one thing they can never say is they weren't
warned.
The Red Sox in desperate disarray:
Mike Cameron? Good player, good guy; not the final
piece for a championship club.
John Lackey?
Gutty, big game pitcher, not the missing ingredient.
Marco Scutaro? Can handle the job at shortstop on a short-term deal; fills a need; not a game-changer.
Where's the basher the Red Sox need?
It's still early in the winter and there's plenty
of time to get something done, specifically with the Padres and Adrian Gonzalez, but as of right now, the Red Sox have neither
filled their primary need; nor have they been able to clear space----on the field and off----to do what must be done to return
to championship contention.
They're trying
desperately to get rid of Mike Lowell, but the veteran failed his physical with the Rangers because of an injured thumb and
the trade is, for now, off. That the Red Sox were willing to eat $9 million of the $12 million Lowell is due next year and
take a journeyman backup catcher in Max Ramirez shines a light on how badly they want to be rid of Lowell. Don't expect
to see him back in a Red Sox uniform under any circumstances. But what then?
If the intent is to shift Kevin Youkilis to third base and play Casey Kotchman at first; Jacoby Ellsbury
in left; and Cameron in center, is that lineup enough to surpass the Yankees? Is it even good enough to make the playoffs?
No.
And the Red Sox know this.
As for the media buzz created by the Lackey signing, I don't see where the guarantees
are for the Red Sox past Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Lackey. That self-aggrandizing and pompous buffoon Mike Lupica is under
the impression that this Red Sox rotation is the second coming of the 90s Braves----NY Daily News column.
Where?
Daisuke Matsuzaka, with his gaudy, on-the-surface numbers from 2008, has
not been good; he's not been what was advertised and has become another in the long line of heavily touted and overly hyped
Japanese imports who have not lived up to their billing. He got raked all over the lot before getting hurt and angered the
club with his whining about Western training practices----they'd love to be rid of him.
Tim Wakefield is on his last legs, knuckleball or not.
Clay Buchholz is going to have to go in a trade for a power bat if they
want to get one of the top tier names like Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera.
Is this a "five-deep" rotation that's going to carry the club past having Casey Kotchman
batting four times a game? Past the overrated Jacoby Ellsbury? The faltering David Ortiz and aging and injury-prone J.D. Drew?
This team has work to do because as
of right now, they're at best the fourth best team in the American League behind the Yankees, White Sox and Angels; and both
the Mariners and Twins are nipping at their heels.
If they don't straighten out their main issue with a big power bat, these moderate free agent signings will mean nothing a
year from now regardless of the nonsensical and foul wind emanating from Lupica; or the enthusiasms of Red Sox Nation. Without
a threatening bat, this team is ripe for a fall.
Don't
blame the agents:
Jason
Bay's agent Joe Urbon is trying to find a team to compete with the Mets for his player's services; and Johnny Damon's agent
Scott Boras is simply doing what it is Scott Boras does; and the players have no one to blame but themselves for their current
predicaments.
Bay, coming off his career
year and having proven himself to be a clutch----albeit streaky----hitter, had every right to ask for big money in his first
chance at full-blown free agency. It just so happened that the market is flush with players who are viable replacements for
him at a lower price. Bay's going to get his money; it may not be as lucrative a contract as he expected, but the Mets would
be well-served not to rake him over the coals and try too hard to get a bargain as they did with Vladimir Guerrero in 2003
only to watch sheepishly as Guerrero signed with the Angels right out from under the Mets' collective noses.
No one's going to be having any charity-drives
for Jason Bay even if he only gets four guaranteed years instead of five.
With Damon, if he really wanted to stay in New York then he has no one to blame but himself. The happy-go-lucky
Damon doesn't seem to me to the be one for much introspection. The attitude of "I'll let my agent handle the contract"
certainly frees one from any decision-making responsibility, but it's not exactly conducive to staying in a preferred venue.
Damon wanted to stay with the Red Sox
after 2005, but they were unwilling to ante up the cash, years or no-trade protection that Damon and Boras wanted; it paid
off then as he got his money from the Yankees and won another World Series. Now, a similar thing has happened with the Yankees
as they've taken steps to fill the hole without giving in to the Damon/Boras demands. The main difference now is that there's
nowhere for Damon to go to get the money he wants. The market is flush with talent and the money is simply not there.
To blame the agent for this is typical of an
athlete allowing others to think for him, mindlessly doing what he's told to shield himself. It's typical of the media to
try and find some ogre as the epitome of evil in the sports world and the horrible and greedy agent serves that purpose. But
what of the player himself?
If
Damon wanted to stay in New York; if Bay wanted to stay in Boston, they had every right and duty to tell their employee, the
agent, that they wanted to stay where they were comfortable and happy rather than scrounging for every last penny they could
possibly accumulate.
I still think
there's a chance that Damon returns to the Yankees after he swallows his signed pride and accepts he's not getting the four-year
contract he wants. It might take someone who's gone through a similar situation with the same agent----Alex Rodriguez----to
tell Damon in no uncertain terms that Boras has to get the deal with the Yankees done no matter what; but Damon's going to
have to go against his agent and think on his own; and that's something he's appeared reluctant to do in years past.
The Yankees still have that hole in left field
for Damon if he's willing to reduce his contract demands. While the Nick Johnson signing is a great low-cost addition, Johnson's
injury-history is what it is and even as a DH, he can't be expected to play 140 games. Mark DeRosa would probably be a better
fit now than Damon, but his contract demands need a reality check as well. There's a window for Damon if he tells Boras to
get something done.
This is Johnny Damon's responsibility and his responsibility alone. If he winds up in San Francisco or St. Louis or another
town in which he never expected to nor wanted to play, blaming Boras is a convenient scapegoating maneuver, but in the end
it's up to the player to determine his own destiny. These are grown men; they should act like it. Part of that is deciding
what they want without being influenced by the sweet-nothings of an agent with an agenda.
Damon needs a friend----and I mean friend, not a flunky or fawning
greenfly----to tell him what's what truthfully and realistically. Does such a thing exist? We'll know in the near future if
the Yankees close the door completely on Damon. And it'll be his own fault.
Milton Bradley on the move again:
I suggested a possible Cubs-Mariners deal sending Milton Bradley to Seattle
for Carlos Silva a month ago----Blog 11.30.2009.
Bradley is toxic off the field;
Silva was horrific on the field. Both had long term contracts that needed to be excised from their clubs' respective payrolls.
The questions for both are of a similar nature as why they were traded.
Will Bradley behave himself in Seattle? Probably not. And that has more to do with history than
anything else. If you see the sun rise in the East every morning, you tend to expect it to continue; Bradley has been a problem
everywhere he's gone and there's no reason to think that's ever going to change; but for the Mariners, he's a worthwhile risk
because he can still play and they needed to get Silva out of there.
Silva had been an innings-eater who should've been good in Seattle with their big ballpark, but he
was fat and rancid. He didn't seem to appreciate the clubhouse atmosphere with the Mariners after coming from a stable organization
with the Twins and couldn't handle the pressure from his big contract. Could he rejuvenate his career with the Cubs? Well,
he could hardly be much worse than he was in Seattle.
I've given up thinking that Cubs manager Lou Piniella will be able to handle such lost causes as Silva after the way he whiffed
on Bradley and hasn't been able to get through to Carlos Zambrano. The Piniella aura is wearing thin and it's up to Silva
to make the conscious decision to show up in shape and ready to go; no one can do it for him.
Quantifying mutual salary dumps is a war of attrition. Either the players
will be good or they won't, but the deal had to be done because neither side had a choice.
Speaking of the Mariners...
Can we stop with the idol worship of Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik please?
He's rapidly becoming a Billy Beane-style flavor of the month. He's made some very good moves and some head-scratchers. I'm
not enamored of the large contract given to Chone Figgins; nor the sentimental re-signing of Ken Griffey Jr; and by all accounts
the Cliff Lee trade fell into his lap when he was approached by the Phillies about freeing money and replenishing prospects
in the Halladay trade.
As for the credit
given to Zduriencik for the Mariners 24 game improvement from a 101-loss monstrosity in 2008 to 85-win up-and-comer in 2009,
that had more to do with the team being healthy and not having the series of unforeseen and bewildering mishaps that befell
them the year before. That 2008 roster should not have lost 100 games. Had Zduriencik stood pat with what he had
when he took the job, the Mariners would've won 15 more games easily.
He deserves credit, but not this lusty and starry-eyed adoration that's now in vogue.
Let's just calm down, huh?
The John Moores divorce is blamed for the Padres
train wreck, but the real culprit in the whole mess was Sandy Alderson and his heavyhanded, self-righteous and credit-seeking
management style as club president.
Much like the aftermath of the ousting of a deranged dictator after he wrecked a country, the Alderson legacy will haunt this
organization for years to come and cleaning up the mess isn't so simple as to spruce up the carnage and make it presentable.
What they need: Clear out the final remaining higher priced players; bring in the best talent they
can from other organizations and start a full-scale rebuild. I don't mean a "make the team as cheap as possible"
and leave an empty lot where a baseball team once was, I mean a rebuild.
Free agents:
OF Brian Giles; RHP Mark Worrell
Did Giles retire?
The sidearming Worrell underwent Tommy John surgery very early in 2009 and was non-tendered, but the Padres are intending
on bringing him back.
Players available via trade: 1B Adrian Gonzalez; RHP Heath Bell; 3B
Kevin Kouzmanoff; RHP Chris Young
Unless owner Jeff Moorad has quietly ordered a trade
without such a disclosure being made public, the Padres are in a very strong position with Gonzalez in that new GM Jed Hoyer
is under no obligation to trade him. The pros and cons of trading Gonzalez follow.
Pros: he's one
of the best players in baseball; he's cheap; he'd bring back enough pieces to accelerate the rebuilding of the club; and in
their current state, what do they need him for?
Cons: he's one of the best players in baseball; he's cheap; he's
a hometown hero; and what better player to build around than a true superstar?
The idea that the fans would revolt if the Padres traded Gonzalez makes no sense because the fans have already been revolted
by the Padres over the past forty years. How can any fan become emotionally invested in a team that has such self-destructive
peaks and valleys on a regular basis? Repeated sell-offs are acceptable when there's a reason for them.
The Marlins continually deal their stars when they start making larger
salaries, but when they do so they import the best prospects from any and all organizations with whom they deal; and the Marlins
have two championship trophies. All the Padres have is a disinterested fan base that has been so beaten down by the abuse
inflicted on them by the various club owners that they simply don't care. If the Padres are good, they'll go to the games
and pay attention (as long as it's not football season); if the Padres are bad, well, it's an understandable "call me
when and if they're good again".
It's not as if it's an isolated incident with one owner either. This has happened with the last three ownership groups
and has shown no sign of ending anytime soon.
I'm ambivalent about trading Gonzalez.
They've got him locked in through 2011 at slightly over $10 million total. Nothing for a hitter who's not yet 28 and
would be on a level with Albert Pujols if he had any lineup protection and a ballpark with reasonable power dimensions. In
the classic conundrum, that is what also makes him the most marketable asset and the best bet to rebuild as quickly as possible.
Then there are the questions about new GM Jed Hoyer.
He has an impressive pedigree----Wesleyan
University; working under Theo Epstein with the Red Sox; etc.----but recent history has proven that an impressive working
history has little to do with actual results when given the top job in an organization (see DePodesta, Paul). Hoyer has done
absolutely nothing so far as Padres GM aside from negotiating with his former boss in Boston (fruitlessly so far) to trade
Gonzalez for a chunk of the Red Sox farm system.
The decision they make with Gonzalez, one way or the other, will be the immediate flashpoint in Hoyer's tenure as GM.
Bell has blossomed into an All Star closer after replacing Trevor Hoffman. It wouldn't be a surprise
to see Bell folded into a massive Gonzalez trade with the Red Sox, who I'm convinced have had enough of Jonathan Papelbon.
Bell's arbitration-eligible and
will get a giant raise. If he's not traded over the winter, he'll be on the block at mid-season.
Kouzmanoff has never fulfilled the potential he showed for the Indians when he demolished both Double and Triple A
pitching in 2006 to the tune of a .379 average, .437 on base percentage and 22 homers in 94 games. He has pop, is a good fielder
and is arbitration-eligible. He won't be a star, but he's a cog for a contender and will be traded.
Young is an unpolished gem who could win 18 games if he's: A) able to stay healthy; and B) gains some stamina for late
in the season so he doesn't run out of gas after hitting 150 innings.
Young's due to make $6.5 million next year with an $8.5 million option for 2011. He's going to
get traded and would a perfect mid-rotation addition (with top-of-the-rotation stuff) for the Cardinals, Yankees, Mets or
any number of clubs.
Players to pursue:
Via free agency: OF
Coco Crisp (Royals); C Brad Ausmus (Dodgers); RHP Braden Looper (Brewers); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies);
LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); C Rod Barajas (Blue Jays); OF Gabe Gross (Rays); RHP Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees); INF/OF Kelly Johnson
(Braves); OF Ryan Church (Braves)
It goes without saying that the Padres aren't going
to be players in the "name" free agent market, but there are useful bargains to be had to fill holes, keep the club
as respectable as possible and provide trade chips for mid-season 2010.
Crisp's value is non-existent
after a rotten year with the Royals, but he can go get the ball in center field and has hit in his career. He's low-risk/high-reward.
The Padres need a backup catcher and Ausmus played in San Diego before and wouldn't complain about
tutoring Nick Hundley. Barajas is looking for work and would be a decent part-timer.
Wang will have more appealing and lucrative opportunities than the Padres, but it doesn't hurt to check in with him and let
him know of the club's interest. Bedard will get better offers as well, but he's got great stuff and would be something to
trade if he's healthy.
Via trade: OF Melky Cabrera (Yankees); RHP David Robertson (Yankees);
RHP Clay Buchholz (Red Sox); RHP Daniel Bard (Red Sox); RHP Michael Bowden (Red Sox); OF Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox); RHP Andy
Sonnanstine (Rays); Brandon Wood (Angels); LHP Matt Harrison (Rangers); RHP Neftali Felix (Rangers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners);
LHP J.A. Happ (Phillies); OF Cameron Maybin (Marlins); RHP Bobby Parnell (Mets); OF Fernando Martinez (Mets); OF Colby Rasmus
(Cardinals); RHP Jason Motte (Cardinals); LHP Manny Parra (Brewers) 3B Mat Gamel (Brewers); RHP James McDonald (Dodgers);
SS Ivan DeJesus Jr (Dodgers); 1B James Loney (Dodgers); OF Andre Ethier (Dodgers); CF Matt Kemp (Dodgers); LHP Madison Bumgarner
(Giants)
Until Hoyer does something----anything----in terms of trades, we won't know
what he's capable of in procuring the top prospects from another club in dealing his remaining stars. The negotiations with
the Red Sox over Gonzalez (and I bet Bell) have gone nowhere. One would assume that Hoyer knows the Red Sox organization up
and down and is asking for the best prospects including Buchholz, et al.
If Gonzalez does get traded this winter, it'll be to the Red Sox; it makes the most sense for
all involved. Even with their acquisitions so far----Mike Cameron, John Lackey, Marco Scutaro----the Red Sox need a basher.
The way their club is currently constituted, not only are the Red Sox still far behind the Yankees, they're a good bet to
miss the playoff entirely in 2010. There's something just off----imperceptible and elusive----about them that's hard
to pinpoint and has to be addressed.
Both Epstein and Hoyer know this.
That doesn't mean a deal will get done, but they know that there's a match in need and prospects on both ends. The Red Sox
may not have a choice but to give Hoyer what he wants for Gonzalez; it's not as if they're dealing for an unknown either.
I think they not only want Gonzalez,
but they need Gonzalez.
The other names mentioned are prospects and/or young
players that the Padres could and should be able to extract in dealing the likes of Bell and Young. Morrow's available and
I love his stuff. I've said numerous times he needs to get out of Seattle and away from the shadow of Tim Lincecum. San Diego
is a perfect place to stick Morrow in the starting rotation and simply let him pitch. (And he should be a starter, not a closer.)
The Dodgers have done as little as the Padres this winter and need pitching. Could
they jump into the Gonzalez sweepstakes? They have the prospects to get him.
How about the Giants? Their organization is packed with young talent too and Gonzalez would automatically
make them serious pennant contenders.
Until Hoyer does something, there won't be a gauge
on what the future holds for the Padres and Gonzalez is the key to that future whether they trade or keep him. We'll know
once that decision is made where the Padres are headed. I'm not going to speculate one way or the other where that road will
lead until he makes some kind of move, any kind of move.
We'll wait and see...
Does this fall under the category of having a bad week?
Not only was former Angels reliever Jose Arredondo
non-tendered by the club last week amid reports that he's set to undergo elbow surgery and would miss the entire 2010 season,
but he was reportedly stabbed in the arm in the Dominican Republic----story.
If I were Arredondo, I'd hide in the
house until the dark clouds hovering overhead departed, but that's just me.
Notes on tomorrow:
I'll address all free agent signings, trades/rumors and more bizarre decision-making from the Phillies----exercising
Jimmy Rollins's 2011 contract option now? Why?----in tomorrow's posting. Get your mail/comments in now.
And I'd strongly suggest you don't
do so anonymously because I'm warming up my arm to slam down the hammer on whoever has the temerity to comment snidely and
worse without leaving their name.
What
they need: Two power bats; a veteran catcher; a veteran, mid-rotation starter; a bat off the bench.
Free agents: LHP Randy Johnson; RHP Bobby Howry; OF Randy Winn; INF Juan Uribe; C Bengie Molina;
INF Rich Aurilia; 1B Ryan Garko
Johnson hasn't retired and it sounds like he still
wants to pitch; I think there's a chance he returns to the Giants at some point if he's able.
The veteran Howry was serviceable enough for the Giants in 2009; he could return on a 1-year deal.
To me Winn is one of the more underrated free agents out there. He won't cost a first round pick to sign and he's coming
off a down season at 35 after years of consistent, if unsung, production; he'll be inexpensive. He can still run and catch
the ball at a corner outfield spot and a change to a home ballpark with more inviting dimensions might wake up his 10-15 home
run power. The Giants need a big basher at a corner outfield spot. Winn won't be back.
Uribe is a versatile utility infielder who can hit the ball out of the park; he'll get a job elsewhere where he'll get his
300 or so at bats and hit 15 homers. He won't be back.
Molina is looking for a 2-3 year deal elsewhere as
the Giants are waiting for Buster Posey to be ready. Molina won't want to take a 1-year contract to caddy for a rookie unless
all of his other options fall through. I think there's a chance that Molina's most avid pursuers----the Mets----grow tired
of playing the game and repeat what happened when they were negotiating with Molina after 2005 and instead made a trade for
a catcher rather than wait for Molina. Back then they traded for Paul Lo Duca; now they might trade for Ryan Doumit.
Molina had better take the 2-years the Mets are
offering.
Aurilia is a loyal Giant, but the club could use a better utility infielder
who can hit with more pop. I doubt he's back.
Garko was non-tendered after a disappointing stint
following his mid-season acquisition from the Indians. He'll get a semi-regular job somewhere.
Players
available via trade: INF Emmanuel Burriss; SS Edgar Renteria; CF Aaron Rowand; LHP Barry Zito
Burriss's star has fallen in San Francisco and there's nowhere for him to play, especially if the Giants acquire a
bat to play second or third base as they appear intent on doing. Truthfully, he's not much of a prospect and is more suited
to be a utility infielder with some speed.
It appears that the Lazarus-style comebacks that have
been a hallmark of Edgar Renteria's career are over. After an unproductive 2008 with the Tigers, the Giants hoped a return
to the National League would rejuvenate Renteria's career as it did when he went from the Red Sox to the Braves, but he appears
downsliding severely. Renteria's making $9 million next year and they might be able to move him if GM Brian Sabean is creative
and takes a bad contract back.
Rowand was signed by the Giants because they whiffed
on any and all other attempts to acquire a big bat after the 2007 season. Rowand's a great guy in the clubhouse; can really
get the ball in the outfield; hits clutch homers; and is a fiery leader on and off the field. The Mets and Cardinals could
use him if all other avenues fail in improving their lineup. That said, he's guaranteed $36 million through 2012, making him
a tough sell.
You want Barry Zito?
Manager Bruce Bochy came up with a strategy in using Zito that played out as follows: he'd let Zito
pitch until he got into any kind of trouble regardless of the inning...and yanked him.
There were games in which Zito had given up two or three hits and got pulled
at the first hint of a struggle. You could tell by the pitcher's body language that he wasn't thrilled with the arrangement,
but Bochy didn't care and judging from Zito's penchant for blowing up without warning in recent years, it's hard to blame
the manager.
In fairness, Zito's
fastball was back around where it was in his heyday with the Athletics (88 mph or so; Zito never threw particularly hard)
and if his contract weren't so heinous, someone would take a chance on him; but in a classic catch-22, if his contract were
more agreeable, the Giants wouldn't be looking to unload a decent innings-gobbler for the back of the rotation.
Zito is set to earn...wait for it....$83 million
guaranteed through 2013.
He's
going nowhere.
Players
to pursue:
Via free agency: 1B Adam LaRoche (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks);
INF/OF Melvin Mora (Orioles); OF Jason Bay (Red Sox); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); 1B Jason Giambi (Rockies); RHP Jason Marquis
(Rockies); C Yorvit Torrealba (Rockies); 1B/3B/OF Aubrey Huff (Orioles); LHP Jarrod Washburn (Tigers); INF Miguel Tejada (Astros);
C Miguel Olivo (Royals); C Brad Ausmus (Dodgers); INF Mark Loretta (Dodgers); 2B Orlando Hudson (Dodgers); 2B Ronnie Belliard
(Dodgers); RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); SS Orlando Cabrera (Twins); OF Gary Sheffield (Mets); 1B Carlos Delgado (Mets); OF Johnny
Damon (Yankees); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); C Jose Molina (Yankees); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); RHP Pedro Martinez
(Phillies); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); RHP Ben Sheets; OF Matt Holliday (Cardinals); INF/OF Mark
DeRosa (Cardinals); RHP John Smoltz (Cardinals); OF Marlon Byrd (Rangers)
The Giants need someone,
anyone who can hit the ball out of the park. Actually, they need two someones, anyones who can hit the ball out of
the park. There are bats available and the Giants have some positional flexibility in that it can be an outfielder at either
corner, a first baseman or third baseman because they can shift Freddy Sanchez to third and Pablo Sandoval to first.
LaRoche would be a great fit for the Giants. He's underrated at the plate and a Gold Glove caliber
defender. Delgado or Huff are lower cost options.
Bay and Holliday are perfect fits, but it's hard to
see the Giants jumping in with Holliday after the way they were torched with another Scott Boras client in Zito; the only
way it happens is if the market dries up completely for Holliday, but he faltered in the Bay Area with the A's and I can't
imagine him wanting to go down that road again. Bay is said to not want to play in San Francisco and I think he's going to
the Mets.
If the Yankees complete their negotiations with Nick Johnson, Damon is a very
real option for the Giants. Dye played well for the A's in the Bay Area and would take a short-term deal. I have a feeling
Dye's going to the Giants.
Yes.
Gary Sheffield.
He can still hit and Bochy handled Barry Bonds who's a bad guy; he'll handle Sheffield, who has some quirks but is deep down
a decent guy and well-respected and liked by the other players. The question is, can he still play the outfield? Why not if
all other possibilities fall through?
There's a load of cheap pitching out there in a mutually
advantageous deal. Bedard, Sheets, Martinez, Myers, Smoltz, etc. The Giants don't need a number one or two starter, they need
a solid vet in the middle-to-back end----and they'll be able to find that relatively easily and reasonably priced.
Olivo, Torrealba or Jose Molina would be useful enough veteran catchers on a short-term deal to hold
the position until Buster Posey is ready, possibly at mid-season. I'd sign Olivo.
Via
trade: OF J.D. Drew (Red Sox); 3B Mike Lowell (Red Sox); LF Carl Crawford (Rays); 1B/OF Luke Scott (Orioles); OF
Delmon Young (Twins); OF/1B/3B Miguel Cabrera (Tigers); OF Carlos Quentin (White Sox); 1B Paul Konerko (White Sox); 3B Jhonny
Peralta (Indians); 1B Travis Hafner (Indians); RHP Joe Blanton (Phillies); 3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); OF Cody Ross (Marlins);
2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); 2B Luis Castillo (Mets); RHP Carlos Zambrano (Cubs); RHP Aaron Harang (Reds); RHP Bronson Arroyo (Reds);
LF Carlos Lee (Astros); C Ryan Doumit (Pirates); RHP Chris Young (Padres); 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (Padres)
Many of these are swaps of bad contracts like Drew and Harang. Would the Cubs be willing to trade Zambrano for Zito?
The contracts are similar and the Cubs have seen and heard enough of their flighty righty.
What's Kenny Williams up to in Chicago with the White Sox? The GM/evil villain the vein of a James Bond film just traded
for Juan Pierre, so who knows what he's thinking of doing with the oft-injured Stanford grad Quentin? One would assume that
Quentin will be the full-time DH, but maybe he's going to trade him, in which case the Giants would be very interested.
It sounds like Uggla is heading to San Francisco; perhaps the deal could be expanded to include the
underrated and feisty Ross.
Yes, I have Travis Hafner and his toxic contract up there. It's hard to
imagine him being able to play the field and stay healthy since he can't even DH without getting hurt, but he's got $30 million
guaranteed through 2012. Maybe a swap of contracts is feasible if the Giants think Hafner can regain his health and bash as
he did with the Indians earlier in the decade.
Viewer Mail 12.18.2009:
Kyle writes RE Huston Street:
I think Huston Street is a better closer than you give him credit for. I
believe the Angels were looking at trading for him last year and I was quite excited at the possibility. I'd rather have him
on the hill for the ninth than Brian Fuentes anyday.
If I had to pick between
the two I'd probably go with Fuentes, but the difference is negligible during the regular season. I have absolutely no faith
in Street in a big game given his gack jobs with the A's in the 2006 ALCS and what happened this year in the NLDS for the
Rockies.
Gabriel (Capo) writes RE the Roy Halladay trade:
I think I'd have liked J.A. Happ and Donald Brown more than Drabek and D'Arnaud,
but I don't complain for the prospects, except for the swap of Taylor for Wallace. Currently, there is no right fielder (José
Bautista is an utility guy, not an everyday player) and the Jays have 1B and 3B covered. I do, however, complain about (read:
abut) the money that the Jays sent to the Phillies. I cannot see it necessary in order to complete the deal.
All things considered, the Blue Jays did as well as they possibly could given all the obstacles in
their path, not the least of which that Halladay had their organizational testicles clenched in his fists. Had they not anted
up that cash, they quite literally might've gotten nearly nothing for one of the best pitchers of this era, so the $6 million
was worth it to save them from a similar purgatory that the Twins met when trading Johan Santana.
I'm going to be keeping an eye on who becomes the better
player: Wallace or Taylor. I think this will be the piece of the trade we bring up years from now.
I have a feeling about Taylor. Don't ask me why. I think he's going to be a superstar.
Having Halladay and Lee would have been devastating
to the competition. As a Mets fan you must be especially glad they didn't go that route.
In the afterglow of getting Halladay, there's a total lack of objectivity to what the Phillies just did---- essentially
nothing to improve the club from what they already had in hand. Halladay will give them probably 15-20 more innings than Lee
would have and will pitch deeper into games to save the club from having to worry about the still-shaky bullpen. All in all,
they got a guarantee of having Halladay past next year when they didn't have that with Lee.
The Phillies would've been tough to beat had they combined Lee and Halladay;
now, their issues in the bullpen and back of the rotation are still present and given Ruben Amaro Jr's strange decisions (Placido
Polanco at third base?), I'm curious to see what he does to shore up those holes. I like the Ross Gload signing.
We spoke a little about this concerning his head around the trade talks,
but he had a solid September after a miserable (by his standards) August.
Think you are being a little too hard
on the Phillies. While I would have kept Lee for 2010 and "see what happens" later, I don't think this trade starts
their downfall. They have other problems (Rollins, who we spoke about, and other pitching questions) that need to addressed
that if ignored we cause the plunge.
Look forward to having you on again. Let's plan for maybe late January when
the FA dust settles.
They're probably not going to do anything with Rollins----no
trade and definitely no extension----and the latter is going to fester with Rollins and he'll start flapping his mouth as
soon as the spring opens and maybe before.
Doing it this way with Halladay may have made financial sense over the long term (now anyway), but they're not any better
and it's a similar move as what the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and others have made and failed in trying to maintain their positions
as top dog.
Depending on how they
try and fix the bullpen and back of the starting rotation, they have some gaping holes; most importantly, they have no idea
which Brad Lidge is going to show up. If I had to guess, he'll pitch well in 2010, but he's such a basket case, who knows?
The other acquisitions will determine the Phillies fate, but Amaro has pulled some head-scratchers this winter.
I can't wait for the free agent dust to settle----lots
of ammunition for my next appearance. I'll come on anytime with pleasure. Presumably, the Mets will have done something by
then(?). Maybe(?).
Then we get to a couple of "Anonymous" quotes.
"Anonymous"
#1 writes RE the Phillies:
Keep wishing "Prince".
Um, take care in your tone friend. Putting quotes around Prince without leaving your name is a bad
start with me.
I will
keep wishing.
I'll keep wishing that
those who have something to say to me will have the balls to leave their name.
One thing I have to acknowledge about the stat zombies/commenters who've come
after me on Baseball Think Factory among other places is that they knew their place. Emerging from their primordial muck to
attack me in other venues without having the courage to come at me on my own site shows a prudence that I can almost respect.
At least they knew better than to take their shots on either one of my sites. The ones that did venture over were
backhanded so severely and slashed to shreds without sorrow or pity that they were left to crawl back into their sludge and
haven't been heard from since.
Next time you want to challenge me, leave your name or comment elsewhere, because I won't exert myself to come after you to
get my figurative hands around your throat.
Anonymous #2 writes:
So, if youre the Phillies...you sit back and let Halladay get traded elsewhere,
you keep Lee for the final year of his contract, and then in the winter when he searches for a contract he likes, he walks
to a team with deep pockets, and then the phillies lose out on Halladay, and Lee...is this what you would have done?
No. I said clearly in the posting that the entire idea of getting Halladay was to combine him with
Lee.
If it were me, I would've
kept Lee and gone after Halladay. It didn't have to be either/or. This stuff about Lee not wanting to sign an extension
sounds like spin doctoring to cover for what the Phillies just did.
If they were making this leap, they should've jumped in with both feet so they had both pitchers
for at least 2010 and made themselves prohibitive NL favorites; worst case scenario, they could've offered Lee around at the
deadline next year; they would've gotten the same prospects in a deal then if they were confident in making a long post-season
run without Lee.
But that wasn't
going to happen. No way they'd be able to sell trading Lee if they were rolling toward another pennant in July 2010.
This was a safety-first outlet. The Phillies
are trying to cover all the bases, something that history has proven to be impossible and they're going to regret it.
Let me preface this by saying that Roy Halladay is one of the guttiest and
best pitchers of this era. Not only is he old-school on the field, but he's the same off the field. Never one to complain
about the hopeless situations in which he pitched year-after-year, it took the sheer intransigence of former Blue Jays GM
J.P. Ricciardi for Halladay to even ask out of Toronto.
While pitchers who had neither Halladay's courage nor his resume were lapping him on the salary scale, Halladay never demanded
to be dealt; nor did he insist on a renegotiation of his contract. The epitome of lunch-pail greatness, the innings and wins
have gone up on an annual basis. He led on the field; he led off the field. What right did players like Gary Sheffield and
Manny Ramirez, who caused trouble everywhere they went, have to wage battles with their respective front offices in trying
to crowbar their way into a more lucrative contracts or trades when Halladay worked under his deal exhausting his reserves
pitching for a club---the Blue Jays----in a division----the American League East----in which he had almost no chance of making
the playoffs?
He made his deal,
he went to work. No complaints; no regrets. And he put up the numbers again and again with class, durability and sports-related
heroism. When he'd finally had enough of the circus that the Blue Jays had become under the ringmaster, Ricciardi, Halladay
quietly asked to be traded to a contender at mid-season 2009. Instead of responding to his ace's request with similar discretion,
Ricciardi blew it up and did what he does best in running headfirst into a public relations disaster.
Rather than stealthily let clubs know that Halladay was in play for a
trade, Ricciardi turned it into a media nightmare putting Halladay in a position where he had to answer the questions day-after-day
about where he wanted to play; why he wanted out; did the organization come to him about a trade or did he go to them, etc,
ad nauseam.
The negotiations got
so nasty with interested clubs; the Ricciardi demands so out of this world, that the most logical destinations like the Phillies
threw their hands up in dismay and moved onto other options. That other option wound up being Cliff Lee.
Ricciardi, while well within his rights to ask for the moon in trading
one of the top three pitchers in baseball at mid-season----when his acquisition could've meant the difference between no making
the playoffs at all or winning the World Series----put himself and his player in an unwinnable, unworkable situation. Once
Halladay was on the block, he had to be traded both for the sake of the club and the player. Instead, Ricciardi didn't
make any deal at all. Halladay was trapped in Toronto to deal with the fallout of his trade request and another winter of
ambiguity in neither knowing the direction of the Blue Jays nor the direction of himself and his family.
The botched negotiations was the final nail in Ricciardi's executive coffin;
the last act in a pockmarked and sullied tenure that should've been mercifully euthanized three years ago. After Ricciardi's
ouster, new Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous was faced with the same quandary of what to do with Halladay. Clearly the pitcher
was going to get traded and the return would go a long way into determining the future of the 32-year-old GM.
To make things worse, now Halladay was mad.
There was something slightly different about Halladay's
demeanor after the trade deadline came and went and he still wore a Blue Jays uniform. Whereas he had previously gone about
his work in a professional, ruthless, "do what must be done" manner, he had a different air about him as the season
wound down. He looked exhausted mentally and physically as his emotionality of having reached his threshold in Toronto was
taking its toll.
He still gobbled
innings; he still won more than he lost; but the way the Blue Jays quit on their season in August combined with the way his
reasonable request to be moved was made to portray the strong, silent gunslinger known as Doc Halladay into man bailing from
a sinking ship and was fumbled into a catastrophe by Ricciardi had crafted a mess that had to be rectified one way or the
other----and Halladay was going to play hardball this time.
In what could be seen as Ricciardi's final act of self-immolation even two months after he was shown
the door, the seeds he planted at mid-season bore fruit as Halladay told the club to get him the hell out of Toronto. Now.
The rumblings out of Toronto began in earnest
that Halladay wanted to be moved, no ifs ands or buts; and if the Blue Jays were going to mess around again, then Halladay
was going to show the same dogged determination in the boardroom as he showed on the field. It wasn't about money; he wasn't
demanding to be moved to a club that was going to pay him as well as C.C. Sabathia or Johan Santana, but he was going
to be out of Toronto before it came time to report to spring training----or else.
With most players empty threats are just that, empty. But with Halladay,
one got the sense that he wasn't playing around when he said that the trade had to be completed before he got to Dunedin,
Florida for Blue Jays spring training; once he reported, he was going to be a Blue Jay for 2010 and then go free agent; and
if that happened, there was every likelihood that the Blue Jays would have to deal with the sight of their erstwhile superstar
wearing a Red Sox or Yankees uniform for the next 5-7 years and face him four or five times a year firing his pitches at them
as the club's remaining fans went bonkers.
By that point, it was Halladay's show. He was going to tell the Blue Jays that he wanted to go to a contender; he preferred
to join a club that had spring training in Florida; and one that played on the East Coast.
The Blue Jays were basically screwed.
Faced with the recent history of what happened to the Twins with Johan
Santana, who held out and held out in the hopes that the Yankees and Red Sox bidding war would yield them prospects the likes
of Clay Buchholz or Joba Chamberlain, the Twins wrung their hands and waited, waited and waited----too long, overplaying their
hand. With Santana, both the Yankees and Red Sox appeared more interested in keeping Santana away from the other guy than
getting the pitcher for a chunk of their minor league system and then signing him to what would essentially be a
free agent contract to boot. There's no doubt both clubs wanted Halladay, but not at that cost. The Twins got nothing for
Santana and the Blue Jays couldn't risk a similar thing happening to them with Halladay.
A deal had to get done before everyone pulled out and the lurking
and scavenging Mets were again the last team standing. The prospective clubs each had their own way of doing business and
negatives to getting a Halladay trade done. The Dodgers might've been the perfect spot prior to Frank and Jamie McCourt's
messy divorce. The Angels made an offer and are not a club that sits around and waits for their trading partners to shop around
to see if they can find something better; it wasn't sitting around on the table forever. The Yankees and Red Sox were both
wrestling with one another and making preparations to move forward without Halladay. That left the Phillies and the Mets.
If the Mets were going to get Halladay, the circumstances
would have to play almost identically to what happened with Santana and had this train wreck gone on longer, they would have.
The Phillies had the prospects; they had the attractive destination with a contending club; and they had the money to sign
Halladay.
The Blue Jays had no
choice and finally got something done before the divorce between Halladay and the club got to the proportions of the McCourts
and former Padres owner John Moores----and presumably almost as expensive in a baseball sense.
As for the trade itself, it ends up being a series of two-team trades, but is in reality a four-team swap of stars
and prospects. It breaks down like this with who and what ends up where:
Philadelphia Phillies get:
RHP Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); RHP Philippe Aumont (Mariners); OF Tyson Gillies (Mariners); RHP Juan Ramirez (Mariners); $6
million from the Blue Jays.
Seattle Mariners get: LHP Cliff Lee (Phillies).
Toronto Blue Jays get: C Travis d'Arnaud (Phillies); RHP Kyle Drabek (Phillies); 1B/3B Brett Wallace (Athletics).
Oakland Athletics get: OF Michael Taylor (Phillies), traded to the Blue Jays and immediately to the Athletics.
The Athletics insinuated themselves into this trade quite adeptly----one of Billy Beane's best skills
is getting his name into the media by doing stuff like this; he's the Madonna of the baseball world when it comes to self-promotion.
Wallace was the prize in the Matt Holliday trade to the Cardinals, but Beane turned around and traded him for Taylor. Wallace could be a viable replacement for Lyle Overbay at first base for the Blue Jays. Now that the Halladay business is
done, the Blue Jays can move onto other matters and one would assume that includes moving Overbay who was discussed earlier
in the off-season. A team can do worse than having the ultra-talented (and acid reflux carrier for his managers) Edwin Encarnacion
at third and Wallace at first.
The Blue Jays had their eye on Drabek in the summer during the initial trade talks for Halladay, but the Phillies steadfastly refused to give him up. It was only
when they received what they felt was commensurate replacement talent and money to offset the Halladay contract extension
that they acquiesced in including Drabek.
Drabek is a contact pitcher like his father Doug was; and if he's got 75% of his dad's guts, he's going to be a big winner
in the majors.
D'Arnaud is a kid (21 in February) and is a catcher, so he could be on the fast track to the majors. He's put up good power numbers
in the minors with limited strikeouts and his percentage of throwing out basestealers shows that he's got the arm to be a
good defender.
Given the catch-22 the Blue Jays were in because of Ricciardi's incompetence,
they did quite well in the trade.
For the Athletics, Taylor
is big (6'6", 250) and has put up massive numbers in the minors. Judging by their physicality and numbers, I think Beane
may have come up a big winner here. Taylor numbers indicate star potential.
Beane's interloping could wind up being a massive win for the A's.
The Mariners had a stroke of good fortune fall into their laps as the Phillies approached them about dealing for Lee
to pave the way for getting Halladay.
Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik continues to clear out the organization of most of the players accrued by the previous
regime, and he's not done. Getting Lee to combine with Felix Hernandez at the top of the Mariners rotation makes them an immediate
threat to the Angels for supremacy in the AL West. They still have work to do in beefing up their offense, but any team with
Hernandez and Lee is dangerous.
With both Lee and Hernandez singing for their suppers----Lee is a free agent after 2010; Hernandez is gearing for his first
big contract as he's arbitration-eligible and a free agent after 2012----the Mariners will get big performances from both.
The Mariners defense and big ballpark will put Lee into Cy Young Award contention.
Then we get to the Phillies.
The
prospects acquired from the Mariners were brought in to replenish the system after the trading of Drabek and Taylor.
Aumont is big (6'7", 220) righty who was the Mariners 1st round pick in 2007. He'll be 21 in January and has been a reliever
with big strikeout numbers in the low minors. He'll be in the minors for the next year-and-a-half at least.
Gillies, 21, demolished the High A California League to the tune of a .341 average; a .430 OBP; and absurd across-the-board numbers.
Ramirez, 21, has been a starter in the minors with results that are not impressive.
Finally, we come to the bewildering move of essentially trading Lee for Halladay.
Initially, the very idea of the Phillies acquiring Halladay was to combine him
with Lee to put together a front of their rotation that wouldn't simply be intimidating; it wouldn't be dominant; it would
be devastating. The mere thought struck fear into the entire National League at the prospect of having to compete with the
Phillies offense along with Lee and Halladay two out of every five days...then came the word that they were trading Lee for
Halladay.
Even with the caveats,
excuses and nonsensical alibis coming out of Philadelphia, this makes no sense. Point-by-point, excuse-by-excuse, here's the
autopsy:
Halladay was willing to sign an extension; Lee wasn't:
Yeah?
So?
For a team like the Phillies, who are getting older, have such massive
bullpen issues and have made some severely questionable decisions as recently as a month ago (Placido Polanco at third base?)
there were two ways to go to move forward. They could: A) address their current issues like the bullpen and back of the starting
rotation; or B) they could go for it all now, while Raul Ibanez still has something left; while Jimmy Rollins is looking for
another payday; while Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are still in their primes; and trade for Halladay while keeping Lee.
To me, trading Lee for Halladay isn't a step up; nor
is it a lateral move. If anything it's a step back.
The Phillies have a policy of not giving longer than 3-year
extensions to their pitchers; Lee wants to explore free agency and get a C.C. Sabathia-type contract:
Come again?
With
belt-tightening from the economy and the appreciation of undervalued talents based on stats and the increased intelligence
of certain GMs, the days of finding players who will provide similar return to stars at a fraction of the cost is in a lull.
Now, you get what you pay for.
If you pay for Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia, you get Lee, Halladay and Sabathia.
If you pay for Adam Eaton and Brett Myers (which the Phillies did----one
would assume to their regret) you get Eaton and Myers.
Would paying Cliff Lee whatever it cost to sign him to an extension have been a worse investment than throwing $55 million
into the sewer for Eaton, Myers and Jamie Moyer? Is it better to pay moderate money for mediocrity and worse, or to give the
big money to a Cy Young Award winner in Lee who came up massively in the post-season and combine him with Halladay?
Comparing Halladay and Lee:
This is not to diminish Halladay's already-acknowledged
greatness, but things have to be examined realistically in all their aspects.
Halladay signed an extension for $60 million through 2013 on top of the $15.75
million he's getting in 2010. There's also a $20 million club option with a contract kicker that goes into effect if Halladay
reaches certain innings limits. Lee would've cost at least $140 million to stay in Philadelphia after 2010. So what we're
talking about is a significant difference in the bottom line of at least $40 or so million, but are the Phillies going to
get more from Halladay over the life of the contract than they would've gotten from Lee?
All due respect to Halladay, but the wear on his arm is substantially
heavier than that of Lee. Halladay is a year older and has logged 2046 innings in his career; in comparison Lee has thrown
1196.
That's not nothing.
It's not negligible as it would be in the case
of a pitcher who'd thrown 200 or so fewer innings.
We're talking about nearly 1000 more innings.
The Phillies are going to be paying Halladay and banking on his durability being maintained at an age where pitchers----no
matter how tough----start to break down both in performance and durability. Lee has been used and abused far less than Halladay.
Examining a pitcher's motion is a slippery slope
in determining his future health. It was size and motion that led the Mariners to select Brandon Morrow over Tim Lincecum,
so you never know; but in looking at the way Halladay and Lee go about their mound business, Lee would be a better bet to
live up to his contract.
Halladay has
a stiff-legged and mechanical motion; whereas Lee is free, easy, smooth and repeatable. Halladay is a piston-driver like John
Henry (the steel-driving man, not the Red Sox owner); Lee is effortless simplicity, silky smoothness and deftness with a deadly
heart like James Bond.
If I had to choose between the two as to which
one was more probable to be healthy and productive for the duration of the contract, it would have to be Lee; and the point
is, no matter how it's spun, the Phillies didn't have to choose between the two pitchers----they could've and should've
had both.
This does nothing to improve
the Phillies; in fact, there's a possibility that it makes them worse in 2010 and definitely beyond. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro
Jr had a club that made it to the World Series in his first year at the helm as he ran the show with surreptitious hand-holding
from former GM Pat Gillick. Now it's his show. He signed Polanco in a move that can only be classified and bewildering; he
has yet to handle the Phillies bullpen issues; and now he's done this with the furtive and floating explanation of keeping
organizational depth by replenishing the lost prospects with the players and money they got along with Halladay.
This one decision will be seen as the latest in errors
by the Phillies. They took another step over the cliff. The Braves and Mets, who were watching with barely-concealed panic
at the very terrifying thought of a Phillies club with both Lee and Halladay, watched with confusion and beatific grins at
their good fortune as the Phillies pulled off this complicated series of trades while not getting any better.
Both rival front offices must've shrugged at
the odd series of events and likely clinked glasses of champagne in celebration because rather than signing up for another
World Series, this was the signing of the Phillies death warrant as championship contenders. If the Mets and Braves make a
couple of smart, under-the-radar signings and stay healthy, the Phillies aren't simply going to miss the playoffs next year,
they're going to fall to third in the NL East.
This one ill-thought-out decision to "improve" is the latest step in the downfall of the Phillies. The spiral
is beginning and they can't regain control now. The damage has been done. The Phillies are going down and this decision will
haunt them for years to come. It's all a result of a similar arrogance, dogmatism, overthinking, executive inexperience and
stupidity that has doomed other franchises in the past.
The Phillies have blown it and they deserve their fate.
Judgment is coming. And it's coming fast. Swiftly and brutally.
Another note about the Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee trade:
Because not all of the dominoes have fallen after
the trade of Roy Halladay to the Phillies, I'm still restraining myself from any and all reaction aside from the obvious one
that the Phillies have made a colossal blunder.
I'm loading my weapons though. When the trades are official comes the reckoning.
Winter Preview----Colorado Rockies:
Dan O'Dowd won executive of the year for firing a guy.
Replacing manager Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy
was the one thing he did that turned the season around for the Rockies. Is that worth executive of the year? Apparently so.
What they need: A veteran starting pitcher; bullpen help; a veteran second baseman; a power bat
off the bench.
Free agents: 3B Garrett Atkins; LHP Joe Beimel; RHP Jose Contreras;
LHP Alan Embree; RHP Josh Fogg; 1B Jason Giambi; RHP Matt Herges; RHP Jason Marquis; RHP Juan Rincon; C Yorvit Torrealba
Atkins's time in Colorado is over after he was non-tendered. He'd already lost his job as an everyday
player; was arbitration-eligible; and no one was going to trade for him with his mediocre performance away from Coors Field
and the open secret that the Rockies were letting him go. He'll get a job elsewhere as a platoon player at least. Perhaps
Atkins needs a change-of-scenery to wake up his bat.
Beimel is a useful lefty reliever, but the Rockies
don't pay exorbitantly for journeyman relievers----they simply replace them smartly. That's one of O'Dowd's strengths.
I wasn't quite sure why the Rockies traded for Contreras in the first place. Gone.
Embree might continue trying to pitch, but it won't be in Colorado.
Fogg has some use as
a long reliever/spot starter and has had most of his career success in a Rockies uniform. He could be back.
One would assume that Giambi will have at least nibbles to DH in the American League part-time. If not, I'd expect
him to go the Dodgers, Giants or Phillies if he stays in the National League.
Herges is another scrapheap
pickup who's had success with the Rockies. He might be back.
Marquis is in demand
as an innings-eating starter and will make more money for more years elsewhere than what the Rockies will offer. He's won't
be back.
Rincon got shelled for the Rockies and probably won't be back.
Torrealba and the Rockies belong together. He's a good handler of pitchers and accepts sharing the
catching duties with Chris Iannetta. He's flirted with other clubs this winter, but it would be best for both sides to continue
the relationship. Torrealba also has a tendency to come up big in important games.
Players
available via trade: 1B Todd Helton; 2B/SS Clint Barmes; RHP Jason Hammel; RHP Huston Street
Helton still gets on base, plays good defense and is a leader in the clubhouse. But his power is gone and his contract
is repulsive. He's due $40 million guaranteed through 2011 when he'll be 39. You want him?
Barmes is arbitration-eligible and is due a big raise He did hit 23 homers this year, but his on base percentage was
a lowly .290, The Rockies could do with a veteran at second base if they don't keep Barmes or think Eric Young Jr is ready
or able to handle the job full time.
I've always liked Hammel's stuff, but he's coming
off his career year and is arbitration-eligible.
The Rockies have been negotiating with the arbitration-eligible
Street on a long-term extension, but if they can't avoid arbitration, they might trade him. He's completely unreliable as
a closer and I'd look for an upgrade.
Players to pursue:
Via
free agency: LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); RHP Danys Baez (Orioles); INF Jamey Carroll (Indians); RHP Fernando Rodney
(Tigers); RHP Kiko Calero (Marlins); 2B Ronnie Belliard (Dodgers); 2B Orlando Hudson (Dodgers); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics);
RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); RHP Matt Capps (Pirates); RHP Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees); RHP Todd
Wellemeyer (Cardinals)
The Rockies technically have five viable starting pitchers on their depth
chart, but Jeff Francis is returning after missing the entire 2009 season with shoulder surgery, and I have no faith in Jorge
De La Rosa continuing to pitch as well as he did down the stretch. They need a reliable veteran, especially with the likely
loss of Marguis.
There are the usual suspects in reasonably priced Davis and the rolls
of the dice like Bedard, Wang and Duchscherer.
Capps would be a replacement for Street and Myers
would be a candidate to take over as closer as well.
If the market is as weak as it was last season, Hudson
could be an option as a short-term second baseman; Belliard is a better candidate for that role and would be cheaper.
Via trade: 2B Alexei Casilla (Twins); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); RHP Derek Lowe (Braves); RHP Chris
Young (Padres); RHP Heath Bell (Padres)
Although the Rockies aren't making any big money splashes
in trades. There are still deals to be made to improve.
Casilla is on the outs with the Twins and could solve the Rockies second base problem if they move on from Barmes.
Would the Braves----who need a first baseman----do a Lowe for Helton swap? Would the Rockies? Who knows?
Young and Bell are available. Young has the stuff to win in Colorado and Bell could replace Street
as closer.
Viewer Mail 12.16.2009:
Jeff (Acting Boss) at Red State Blue State writes RE the Halladay machinations in two comments:
The
way I understood this "blockbuster" trade in the making is that Philly wouldn't give up any prospects. It'd be an
ace for an ace plus signing Halladay long-term. The Mariners would provide the prospects to the Jays. Seemed like a good idea
to me to get more right handed in the starting rotation, especially knowing they wouldn't be able to resign Lee after this
season anyway. Did I miss something?
As
yesterday progressed, I became more knowledgeable about this Halladay deal. Now things are making sense... sorta.
I'm loading up to blow this thing apart as soon as it's officially done. The Phillies have screwed
up badly and are using out-of-context crap to cover for themselves. All in good time....
David writes RE the Dodgers:
Prince: Oddly enough, there has been murmuring around here about *what if*
the Dodgers went after Jason Bay. Where would they put him? And do you think that's a good idea when our pitching should be
a number one priority right now?
Unless they're trading Andre Ethier for an arm (and
I would NOT move Manny Ramirez back to right field), they have no place for Bay. Nor does it appear as if the team's able
to get into pursuing a free agent of Bay's magnitude with the ownership in such disarray.
I think it's a rotten idea. They need pitching, pitching, pitching.
A Brief Note About the Halladay/Lee Trade; Los Angeles Dodgers---Hot Stove Preview
The Phillies are on the verge of sowing the seeds
to their own destruction:
Because the proposed trade of Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays to the Phillies; Cliff Lee to the Mariners and it still unknown
as to the exact names and numbers being exchanged by the three teams, I'm refraining full-blown comment on the ramifications
of this trade. I'm under the assumption that it could still fall apart.
What I will say is that the whole idea of the Phillies trading for Halladay when the winter
commenced was for he and Lee to combine with Lee for a devastating combination at the top of their starting rotation. Since
they're in essence trading Lee and a chunk of their minor league system for Halladay, the Phillies haven't taken
a step forward; in fact it could be argued that they haven't even taken a lateral step; they've taken a step backward.
If this trade goes through as reported, it will be
seen in retrospect as a gigantic blunder on the part of Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. In addition to the utterly bizarre signing
of Placido Polanco to play third base, this maneuver is the next step over the cliff for the Phillies.
And there's no turning back mid-plummet.
Somewhere Omar Minaya and Jeff Wilpon are clinking champagne glasses.
And laughing.
Winter Preview----Los Angeles Dodgers:
At least manager Joe Torre is accustomed to dealing with off-field turmoil
and winning in spite of it, but the Dodgers situation is a mess.
What they need: Starting
pitching; a backup catcher; a veteran power bat off the bench.
Free agents: C Brad
Ausmus; 2B Ronnie Belliard; RHP Jon Garland; 2B Orlando Hudson; INF Mark Loretta; 1B Doug Mientkiewicz; LHP Eric Milton; RHP
Guillermo Mota; LHP Will Ohman; RHP Vicente Padilla; RHP Jason Schmidt; DH/1B Jim Thome; RHP Jeff Weaver
Ausmus has been contemplating retirement, but doesn't sound like a guy ready to retire if he's offered a plum job as
a backup. He could be back or might sign elsewhere. I don't think he'll retire.
Belliard
is an underrated player who took the starting second base job from Hudson for the playoffs. The Dodgers appear ready to give
the second base job to Blake DeWitt if necessary, but Belliard might be back on a short-term contract. Hudson's gone.
Loretta is a useful utility player who might be back.
Mientkiewicz doesn't
do much of anything anymore that makes him worth keeping around at any price. Nothing personal.
Mota pitched reasonably well for the Dodgers last year as a bottom-tier reliever and might be back. Ohman's gone.
Garland is in demand as a reasonably priced innings-gobbler. Depending on what the Dodgers do to upgrade
their rotation, Garland might be back.
Padilla was brilliant down the stretch and early in
the playoffs. After replenishing his value to a certain degree, someone might overpay for Padilla after the first few free
agent dominoes fall; he'd be well-served to stay with the Dodgers.
Schmidt's career might
be over after his arm gave out again and he cleaned out his locker at Dodger Stadium mid-season and left.
Thome will find work in the American League as a DH.
Weaver has found a home
with the Dodgers as a long reliever/swing starter, but he had found a home with the Cardinals in 2006 helping them win a World
Series and left for the Mariners and bigger money. It was a big mistake to leave the Cardinals then and it would be a big
mistake to leave the Dodgers now. I have no idea what Weaver's going to do. If I had to bet, I'd say he's back.
Players available via trade: SS Rafael Furcal; C Russell Martin; RHP James McDonald; OF Juan Pierre;
RHP Hiroki Kuroda
No one seems to know how much the divorce proceedings between the McCourts
are going to affect business with the club. The Dodgers have done literally nothing so far this off-season, which is a bad
sign because GM Ned Colletti is generally very aggressive. One thing's for sure, this is going to get worse before it gets
better. Torre has his work cut out for him holding things together.
Furcal played brilliantly
in the NLDS; horrible in the NLCS and had a poor regular season. He's got over $20 million coming to him through 2011 and
Ivan DeJesus Jr is a viable replacement if he's healthy after an injury-plagued year. They also have Chin-Lung Hu as a low-cost
shortstop.
Martin is arbitration-eligible and there's concern about his lack of pop
(26 extra base hits on the year). Torre might want a better game-caller behind the plate. Martin can be had in a trade.
I think McDonald is going to be a superstar once he bridles his vicious stuff, but he might be part
of a blockbuster type trade for a veteran pitcher.
Pierre has been an exemplary teammate since losing
his starting job and performing well in replacing the suspended Manny Ramirez; he never squawked about his role as a backup.
He's got $18.5 million coming to him through 2011, but he's movable for another high-priced contract.*
*Note:
A report coming out this morning is saying that Pierre has been traded to the White Sox for two minor leaguers. It's not official.
Kuroda has had injury-problems and got rocked
in the NLCS by the Phillies. He's also due to make $13 million next year and could be moved if the Dodgers have to slash
salary.
Players to pursue:
Via free agency: LHP
Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); INF Jamey Carroll (Indians); 1B Jason Giambi (Rockies); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); LHP Jarrod
Washburn (Tigers); C Miguel Olivo (Royals); SS Orlando Cabrera (Twins); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); RHP Pedro Martinez
(Phillies); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); C Jose Molina (Yankees); INF/OF Mark DeRosa (Cardinals); C Rod Barajas (Blue Jays);
RHP Ben Sheets; RHP Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees); LHP Randy Johnson (Giants); RHP Todd Wellemeyer (Cardinals)
There's a very good chance that Wang winds up with Torre in Los Angeles.
The other starting pitchers are moderately priced and/or veterans looking for work. There are the legends (Martinez, Johnson);
the gutty, innings-eaters (Davis); the relatively reliable veterans (Marquis); and the rolls of the dice (Sheets, Duchscherer,
Washburn). Pitching in vast Dodger Stadium with the strong bullpen of the Dodgers would benefit them greatly.
Any and every team could use DeRosa and Torre could stick him at second base or use him as a jack-of-all-trades.
Carroll is a reasonable replacement for Loretta.
If there's no regular role as a DH in the American
League for Giambi, he's a prime candidate for a bench role with the Dodgers and Torre.
Via
trade: RHP Jake Westbrook (Indians); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); RHP Joe Blanton (Phillies); RHP Josh Johnson
(Marlins); RHP Ricky Nolasco (Marlins); RHP Derek Lowe (Braves); RHP John Maine (Mets); RHP Carlos Zambrano (Cubs); RHP Roy
Oswalt (Astros); LHP Paul Maholm (Pirates); RHP Chris Young (Padres)
They're all pitchers
listed above. I had thought the Dodgers were prime candidates to land Halladay, but the turmoil in the front office pretty
much sabotaged that idea.
Would the Dodgers take Lowe and some cash back
in a deal for Pierre? Maybe.
Westbrook is recovering from Tommy John surgery, so
he wouldn't be moved until he proves he's healthy, but teams will be keeping an eye on him.
The Dodgers have the farm system to make a move on Nolaasco or a bold move on Josh Johnson and the Marlins, as always,
will listen to proposals on anyone and everyone.
Zambrano could be had, but does Torre need that aggravation?
I don't think so.
Red Sox agree to terms with John Lackey and Mike Cameron:
There's much talk about how this bolsters the
Red Sox starting rotation, but the starting rotation was supposed to be a major strength for the Red Sox last season when
they had eight big league starters heading into the season.
Look how that turned out.
I like the Lackey signing, but to mention Daisuke Matsuzaka as a major part of a hellish starting rotation is stretching
things a bit. That said, if the Red Sox signed Lackey to a similar contract as the Yankees gave A.J. Burnett, it's a fair
deal. Burnett has better stuff, but Lackey----even with his arm troubles in recent years----is a better bet to stay healthy
and he won't be afraid of the spotlight; he's performed in big games time and time again.
With Cameron, this signals the end of Jason Bay's time with the Red Sox (I think Bay's going to the Mets). It's unclear
whether Cameron or Jacoby Ellsbury will be shifting to left field. The Red Sox still need to get a big power bat somewhere.
They're after Adrian Gonzalez, but that's iffy.
These signings don't propel the Red Sox past the Yankees. They need a bat.
What they need: Two power bats; pitching top-to-bottom; a veteran catcher.
Free agents: RHP Matt Capps; LHP Phil Dumatrait
The one positive thing
about playing in a football-mad city that also has the best hockey team in the NHL is that the baseball franchise----no matter
how storied and historically significant it is----can do whatever it wants because no one's paying much attention; nor do
they really care what the Pirates do either way. There's something positive to be found in a team that's been so universally
heinous from the field to the front office that no one notices anything they do anymore.
I have absolutely no explanation for why the Pirates non-tendered
Capps aside from the fact that they're the rare combination of cheap, clueless and agenda-driven.
Fair enough, Capps was arbitration-eligible and was terrible over the
second half of the season. The do have a replacement closer in Joel Hanrahan (who's pretty good); but with the scarcity of
relievers available, Capps's age (26) and that he's been solid in the past, didn't it make sense to hang onto him to give
some viability to the Pirates bullpen and have a useful trade chip at mid-season 2010? With a little luck----a concept
completely foreign to the Pirates, I understand----Capps would've had a hot year and been even more marketable to a contender
in June.
To just dump him for nothing?
Do the Pirates have any idea at all of what they're doing? Or do they just flip a coin; throw darts at a wall or find some
other arbitrary way to make their decisions?
As much as a rip into to the stat zombies for their pomposity and dogmatic devotion to stats above any and all other
methods of building a team, at least they can point to a reason for doing the things they do; I may not agree with them, but
there's a reason. When it comes to the Pirates, there's never a reason for anything. They run their organization
as the epitome of utter chaos and while that makes for an interesting lifestyle for those that choose to partake in anarchy,
it's not the way to build even a moderately respectable organization.
Remember that in the past two years, the Pirates dumped Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Nyjer Morgan,
Nate McLouth and just about anyone else who was marketable and was making money for returns that were middling at best; all
the while signing such free agents as Ramon Vazquez and Eric Hinske and inexplicably trading for Akinori Iwamura as if they
were one veteran player away from contention. Along with that, if one decision summed up the Pirates on the whole, it was
that they non-tendered their 26-year-old closer.
Dumatrait was another washed out first round pick
of the previous regime led by owner Kevin McClatchy and GM Dave Littlefield. On the bright side, the new posse running the
Pirates, team president Frank Coonelly and GM Neal Huntington have succeeded in one area that was heretofore considered all
but impossible----they've made the McClatchy/Littlefield years look good by way of comparison. Nice work.
Players
avaialble via trade: C Ryan Doumit; LHP Zach Duke; LHP Paul Maholm; INF Ramon Vazquez
I have no idea what's going through the heads in the Pirates front office (notice I refrained from using the words
"brains" or "braintrust" or anything to do with rational thought), so anyone and everyone could be on
the block. Nothing they do surprises me...I hope.
But I thought the same thing before they traded McLouth to the Braves: A) after signing him to a reasonable extension; and
B) without offering him around baseball before getting what was widely regarded as sub-standard return.
I've always liked Doumit. Even though he's had injuries and a bad year at the plate in 2009, he's an option for a team
like the Mets if they can't come to an agreement (again) with Bengie Molina. He's making a reasonable (for most teams) $3.55
million in 2010 and $5.1 million in 2011. He's going to get traded.
Duke replenished his
value with an All Star year in 2009. I was never particularly impressed with Duke and he's arbitration-eligbile. He's one
player the Pirates should trade before he reverts back to what he was in the prior few years.
Maholm has talent, is lefty and has been durable. He's guaranteed over $10 million through 2011. He's going to get
traded either this winter or at the deadline.
I'm still waiting for an answer as to why the Pirates
signed Vazquez to begin with. He has some use as a utility player for a contender, but what the Pirates needed him for is
a mystery that one would have to go to the wise man atop the mountains in Tibet to even try to find a reasonable response----and
he'd probably shrug and say, "Hell if I know!"
Players to pursue:
Note: I'm not even bothering to go player-by-player and what they could do for the Pirates. I'll list
them. That's it.
Via free agency: OF Rocco Baldelli (Red Sox); RHP Danys Baez (Orioles);
RHP Kevin Gregg (Cubs); C Ramon Castro (White Sox); RHP Octavio Dotel (White Sox); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); RHP Jason
Marquis (Rockies); RHP Fernando Rodney (Tigers); RHP Vicente Padilla (Dodgers); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); RHP Brett
Myers (Phillies); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); RHP Ben Sheets; INF Khalil Greene (Cardinals); RHP Todd Wellemeyer (Cardinals);
C Rod Barajas (Blue Jays); RHP Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees); OF Ryan Church (Braves); 1B Josh Whitesell (Diamondbacks)
Via trade: RHP Andy Sonnanstine (Rays); RHP Brandon League (Blue Jays); 1B Lyle Overbay (Blue Jays);
1B/OF Luke Scott (Orioles); INF/OF Brandon Inge (Tigers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); RHP Bobby
Parnell (Mets); RHP Chris Young (Padres)
Obviously no one chooses to go to the wasteland
that is the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, but there are so many free agents floating around that at least a few could fall
to the Pirates simply because they have nowhere else to go.
If the Pirates are smart (yah right!!!), they could improve economically and/or trade the veterans
to contenders as they settle into last place (unless the Astros nip them in that regard) and start the process all over again.
Every time you think
the Pirates can't reach new levels of organizational depravity, they stun even the most cynical among us.
This organization is a disaster.
The Prince on the podcast:
In case anyone missed it, here's the link to
Sal's site, SportsFan Buzz and to my appearance on the podcast----here.
The decision to tender or not to tender is not for
the tenderhearted:
Some interesting, smart, strange and brutal decisions were made yesterday just prior to the deadline to offer contracts to
players under team control. Following is the list (culled from NBC Sports) along with some analysis.
Los Angeles Angels: RHP Jose Arredondo; INF Matt Brown; RHP Dustin
Moseley
Non-tendering Arredondo was a cold-blooded move on the part of the Angels. Arredondo
was considered as a replacement closer for Francisco Rodriguez a year ago before they signed Brian Fuentes, but he might need
Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss the entire 2010 season. The Angels don't usually do things like this; I would've
expected them to keep Arredondo on the payroll.
Brown is a journeyman, minor league outfielder. Moseley had injury problems to his elbow and hip and might be back on a lesser
contract.
Oakland Athletics: DH/1B/OF Jack Cust
"That's right Einstein. What tipped you off? I mean, I've been trying so hard to keep it a secret here..."
Not only is Billy Beane's Moneyball-crafted, fictional
genius wearing thin, he's slowly degenerating into a moron.
Cust was a former top pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks who washed out for four different organizations
before getting to Oakland and filling some semblance of his potential. He strikes out too much and is a pure DH, but the A's
got something out of him. That should've been enough to take the house money and deal him, but Beane didn't.
After rehabilitating Cust's flagging career and
turning him into a viable big leaguer, Beane should've included him in the 2007-2008 fire sale that cleaned house of Dan Haren
and Joe Blanton among others. Now, instead of getting something for Cust when he could've, he's getting nothing.
Will this be part of the Moneyball movie or are they
going to take dramatic license to protect the "genius" upon whom the Moneyball-farce was built even as the walls
collapse around him?
Toronto Blue Jays: C Raul Chavez
Chavez is a soon-to-be 37-year-old journeyman catcher who was arbitration-eligible. Someone might've gotten fired if they'd
gone to the arbitration table with him.
Cleveland Indians: RHP Adam Miller; RHP Jose Veras;
RHP Anthony Reyes
Miller's had all sorts of injury problems all over his body. Veras is
a journeyman with a good fastball, but is no great loss.
The non-tendering of Reyes is a bit of a surprise. Reyes has been horrible and was arbitration-eligible, so maybe it's
not such a stunner, but it's a rapid fall for what was once a top Cardinals pitching prospect and whom the Indians got for
nearly nothing (Luis Perdomo).
Seattle Mariners: OF Ryan Langerhans
Yah. No kidding. It's been a grand stumble for Langerhans who was supposed to bookend Jeff Francoeur
in the Braves outfield for years to come.
Baltimore Orioles: RHP Brian Bass
Bass didn't pitch that badly for the Orioles this year.
Tampa
Bay Rays: OF Gabe Gross; C Shawn Riggans
The Rays got more than anyone could ever have expected
from Gross, who couldn't hit before he got to Tampa in 2008, contributed mightily to their pennant-winning run, and has now
been dispatched.
Riggans is a journeyman
backup catcher who's easily replaced.
Boston Red Sox: OF Brian Anderson
I'm not quite sure what it is that Anderson does that keeps him in the big leagues.
Kansas
City Royals: OF Josh Anderson; C John Buck
Anderson has some use for someone and he wasn't expensive.
Why the Royals chose to dump him for nothing is an example of why they're the Royals.
Buck has some pop in his bat, but he was arbitration-eligible and they signed
Jason Kendall to take over.
Chicago White Sox: RHP D.J. Carrasco
Carrasco pitched well for the White Sox. It's strange that they let him go.
New
York Yankees: RHP Chien-Ming Wang
The Yankees know more about Wang's physical condition
than anyone so maybe they don't think he's going to return to form; but he's a minimal risk/massive reward for any team that
can get the pitcher who won 38 games over two years in 2006-2007 and was on his way to another 16-18 wins in 2008 before injuring
his ankle running the bases.
The Yankees
are interested in keeping Wang at a reduced rate, but he should get guaranteed offers from teams like the Mets, Dodgers, Red
Sox, Angels, Mariners and Giants. It depends how badly he wants to remain a Yankee.
In years past, the Yankees, who signed the likes of Jon Lieber and Octavio
Dotel----knowing that they were hurt and the club would have to wait until they were healthy to get something from them----would
never have non-tendered Wang.
Atlanta Braves: INF/OF Kelly Johnson; OF Ryan Church
Johnson's no great loss for the Braves, but he can hit as a part-timer.
And then there's Ryan Church.
All we heard when the Braves and Mets made the Jeff Francoeur for Church trade at mid-season that the Braves got the better
end of the deal; that Church is a "better" player than Francoeur based on his numbers; that the Braves got something
for nothing, blah blah blah.
I loved the deal for the Mets because I'd seen enough of Church to know what he was.
The stat zombies and I went back-and-forth about
Francoeur and Church. My argument was that Church looks good on paper, but when you see him every day, you learn that he's
a streaky hitter who brainlocks and makes stupid mistakes on the field. I said the Braves would rue the day they traded Francoeur
for a player you can find on most Triple A rosters in Church. It took them a month to see the holes in Church's game and bench
him. Now they've officially given Church (and Francoeur, about to turn 26 and with multiple-MVP ability) away for nothing.
I'm waiting for people to say I was
right (again). I'm not holding my breath.
Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Mark DiFelice; RHP Seth
McClung; C Mike Rivera
DiFelice had shoulder surgery after pitching well for the Brewers in 2009.
McClung throws hard and has use for someone as a starter or reliever, but he was arbitration-eligible. Rivera's a veteran,
journeyman catcher who'd already been replaced by Gregg Zaun and George Kottaras.
Chicago
Cubs: LHP Neal Cotts
Cotts was arbitration-eligible and rotten this year.
Arizona
Diamondbacks: 1B Josh Whitesell
Someone will pick up Whitesell because he's put up
power/on base numbers in the minors, but he failed in brief big league trials. He's no kid either----he'll be 28 in April.
San Francisco Giants: 1B Ryan Garko
Garko was arbitration-eligible
and the Giants need a major power bat at first base to take the next step. He's be a great, low-cost option for the Mets to
share first with Daniel Murphy if they don't bring Carlos Delgado back and bring in a basher for left field.
Florida Marlins: OF Alfredo Amezaga
Amezaga was arbitration-eligible,
hurt and can't really hit.
New York Mets: RHP Lance Broadway; RHP Tim Redding; OF Cory Sullivan;
OF Jeremy Reed
The only one of this group I would've kept was Broadway. He showed me
enough to keep around as a reliever.
Washington Nationals: RHP Mike MacDougal; LHP Scott
Olsen
MacDougal's 100-mph fastball will keep getting him work. He's wild, but salvageable.
Olsen needs someone to keep him in line and the Nationals
chaotic clubhouse was the last place he should've been. A perfect situation for Olsen would be one with a strong-handed manager
like Mike Scioscia or Joe Girardi. Girardi kept Olsen in line with the Marlins and he pitched well.
San
Diego Padres: RHP Jackson Quezada; RHP Mark Worrell
Quezada has good numbers
in the minors, but he didn't pitch in 2009. Worrell was hurt too but he might be back with the Padres at a lower price.
Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Clay Condrey
Condrey's gotten pretty
far for a guy who was drafted in the 94th round in 1996 and signed as a free agent in 1998. You read that right----the ninety-fourth
round. He was the odd man out in the Phillies bullpen and was arbitration-eligible.
Pittsburgh
Pirates: RHP Matt Capps; LHP Phil Dumatrait
Arbitration-eligible or not; bad year or not, only
the Pirates would non-tender their closer.
Dumatrait was another disastrous first round pick in a long line of them for the Pirates.
Cincinnati
Reds: OF Jonny Gomes
I don't understand this. I get that Gomes is arbitration-eligible; that
the Reds are slashing payroll and have some immovable contracts, but Gomes hit 20 homers in part-time duty last year; is feisty
and impressed the club with his comportment and leadership. He would've been worth keeping around.
Colorado
Rockies: 3B Garrett Atkins
Atkins's numbers are pedestrian at best away from
Coors Field and he was arbitration-eligible. He'd lost his starting job, so the Rockies just let him go. They should've traded
him at mid-season and gotten something for him.
An offer designed to fail:
The Cardinals made a contract offer to free agent
outfielder Matt Holliday that is said to be worth less annually than $18 million a year. No one has reported the length of
the offer from what I've seen.
The only
way this offer is accepted is if Holliday is left out in the cold completely and has no other choice but to take it. With
Scott Boras as his agent and the hyperbole and overt crap that comes with that, Holliday wants waaaayyyyy more than
$18 million a year.
The Cardinals know
this and have made this offer knowing: A) that Holliday will reject it; and B) that they still have to keep some money available
to extend Albert Pujols in the near future.
Pujols's contract is up after 2011 and the Cardinals have to walk the fine line of being financially sane and making
it appear as if they're doing everything they can to win----something that's been in question in recent years.
I agree with the Cardinals strategy in Holliday's
case. I wouldn't break the bank for him either. They rolled the dice in trading top prospect Brett Wallace to get him from
the A's in the hopes that he'd enjoy St. Louis enough to sign for below market value as Jim Edmonds and Mark McGwire (among
others) did. They went for it all in 2009 and it didn't work. There's no reason to compound the mistake by overpaying for
Holliday to keep him. And they won't keep him with that offer.
I hope Wang does get a shot with the Mets or some other
team. I'd love to see him bounce back.
Wang's going to get a good deal with a good team.
It sounds like he might even be back with the Yankees. I'd absolutely take a shot at him, which is exactly what I want the
Mets to do.
David
writes RE my podcast appearance:
Nice podcast. You got that heavy New Yowka accent haha.
In case anyone missed it, here's the link to Sal's site, SportsFan Buzz and to my appearance on the podcast----here.
It's interesting you mention the accent
because I had people say they can't exactly place it as heavy New York. I say it's a combination of the city, my mother's
British accent and Jew. It's a bizarre mix. I was also told that my voice is embedding itself into certain people's brains;
and that I sounded remarkably calm.
Dunno if all of this makes me interesting, psychotic or both.
They're old, have little minor league help on
the way and have already made one ridiculous signing this off-season. Keeping the Pirates out of last place in the division
is not an accomplishment.
What they need: Lots of starting pitching; a veteran
shortstop; a veteran backup catcher.
Free agents: SS Miguel Tejada; RHP Jose Valverde;
OF Jason Michaels; LHP Mike Hampton; 1B/OF Darin Erstad; RHP Doug Brocail; RHP Brian Moehler; 1B/3B Aaron Boone
Tejada has been under fire in recent years because of his lies to congressional investigators about
his PED use and that he was found to be older than his listed age (as if that's some new occurrence with Dominican players);
but what's ignored amid all the controversy is that Tejada can still hit.
No, he's not the basher he was when he won the MVP with the Athletics 2002, but as a shortstop or shifting
over the third, he's an attractive and still-productive option for a club needing a veteran bat. Someone will sign Tejada
and he'll be productive. He won't be back with the Astros.
The Astros have signed Brandon Lyon to a 3-year, $15
million contract (Yes. Really.) and traded for Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins, so they have replacements for Valverde. Valverde
throws very, very hard and someone will sign him as a closer or flamethrowing set-up man.
Michaels makes me angry because he just looks like he should be a better player than he is, but never does
much of anything aside from the occasional hit, fielding play or simple movement that makes a team executive someplace think
the exact same thing. He'll get a contract elsewhere as a back-up outfielder.
Hampton's arm gave out again, but the Astros might bring him back on a minor league deal and give him a chance to rehab and
pitch again.
Erstad was horrible for the Astros in 2009, but he can still catch the
ball in the outfield and at first base. Perhaps a change to a better team would awaken his bat.
Brocail is a respected veteran who I think can still pitch. He and the Astros have parted ways, but someone looking for inexpensive,
veteran bullpen help will sign Brocail.
The Astros declined Moehler's contract option, so
he's gone. He could have some use for someone as a long reliever/swing starter.
Aaron Boone retired.
Players available via trade: RHP Tim Byrdak; INF Jeff Keppinger; 2B
Kaz Matsui; C J.R. Towles
Teams have contacted the Astros about both Roy Oswalt and Carlos Lee and
have been rebuffed. I wouldn't be surprised if inquiries have been made as to the availability of Wandy Rodriguez, Lance Berkman
and Hunter Pence as well. The Astros need to do a teardown and rebuild the farm system, but they're not going to do it.
GM Ed Wade isn't exactly Branch Rickey; and owner
Drayton McLane is a meddler, so unless they bring in a solid, talent evaluating GM, it makes no sense to even start cleaning
house. They could rebuild the franchise relatively quickly if they sold off their assets with a smart GM, but forget it.
They've got what they've got----an old roster,
no starting pitching and a load of fill-in pieces around some star caliber players.
Byrdak appeared in 76 games and pitched well. He's arbitration-eligible and due a big raise. I doubt they'll trade him.
Keppinger has proven himself to be a useful utility player who can hit a bit. He's arbitration-eligible
and could find himself playing shortstop every day for the Astros. I don't think he'll be moved.
The Astros would love to be rid of Matsui. He's only making $5 million next year, so after the free agent/trade chips
fall, Matsui could be traded.
Towles has been a complete washout as a prospect. He's gotten chance-after-chance
and simply has not hit. Given the Astros circumstances, they might as well go into the spring telling Towles that it's his
job, sink or swim, and see if he hits.
Non-tender candidates: RHP Gary Majewski
The veteran Majewski spent the entire 2009 season in the minors. Someone will bring him to camp on
a minor league contract.
Players to pursue:
Via free agency: LHP
Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); INF Jamey Carroll (Indians); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); LHP Jarrod Washburn (Tigers); C Miguel
Olivo (Royals); C Brad Ausmus (Dodgers); RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); INF Craig Counsell (Brewers); INF Felipe Lopez (Brewers);
RHP Braden Looper (Brewers); SS Orlando Cabrera (Twins); C Mike Redmond (Twins); RHP Justin Duchscherer; RHP Pedro Martinez
(Phillies); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); LHP Randy Johnson (Giants); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); RHP Joel Pineiro (Cardinals);
C Rod Barajas (Blue Jays)
I know some of the names of starting pitchers----Martinez, Johnson----are
Hall of Famers just hanging in; or are veterans who might not help the Astros all that much----Washburn, Davis----or probably
aren't going to fall to them----Pineiro, Marquis----but the Astros need some viable starting pitching behind Oswalt and Rodriguez.
They've spent money foolishly on
Lyon, so if they're not going to clean house and rebuild, they need pitching from somewhere. Garland was inches away from
being traded to the Astros a few years ago before the deal fell apart, so that's a possibility.
There are veteran shortstops floating around. Orlando Cabrera's a real option for them and Lopez is a forgotten free
agent who appears to have learned how to hit.
I'd faint if Redmond left the cozy confines of Minnesota
and the warm embrace of playing behind Joe Mauer, but he's a respected free agent backup. Ausmus hasn't exactly retired, was
a longtime Astro before moving on to the Dodgers; and wouldn't balk at being a backup and tutoring Towles. Barajas could fill
that same role.
Via trade: RHP Andy Sonnanstine (Rays); RHP Jeremy Bonderman (Tigers);
INF Jhonny Peralta (Indians); RHP Gil Meche (Royals); LHP Cole Hamels (Phillies); RHP Joe Blanton (Phillies); RHP Derek Lowe
(Braves); RHP Javier Vazquez (Braves); RHP Mike Pelfrey (Mets); RHP Carlos Zambrano (Cubs); RHP Chris Young (Padres)
There are some gigantic rolls of the dice here like Sonnanstine and Bonderman, but they could presumably
get both for next-to-nothing. Zambrano is pricey and has made the Cubs and Cubs fans very, very angry with his inconsistency
and excuses. Lowe's pricey, but the Astros have spent money in the past.
Blanton's name is out there and if the Astros decide to put Lee on the market, the Mets would absolutely
give up Pelfrey.
Peralta is reasonably
priced and could move back to shortstop in a pinch.
The soothing voice of the Prince of New York:
I was a guest on Sal Cartusciello's podcast yesterday.
Sal does a great job talking about all sports and his website is SportsFan Buzz.
If you'd like to hear the dulcet
sound of my voice (it ain't Ernie Johnson's deep broad-caster's...voice with perfectly irritating
diction, but it's distinctive, like my style) and----good or bad----you ain't gonna forget it. Plus I'm interesting.
Click here and bask in my fantastic wonderfulness.
Yankees
intend to non-tender Chien-Ming Wang:
Note to Mets GM Omar Minaya: get on the phone to Wang's agent as soon as the non-tender is official and get him. Immediately.
With the Mets gigantic ballpark and their infield
defense back intact with Jose Reyes, Wang would be a big winner with the Mets if he's healthy; plus he's a lot more of a competitor
than his quiet demeanor indicates. He's love to shove it to the Yankees by helping the Mets.
The Mets need to jump in on that with both feet if they trust he'll come
back healthy, and I think he will.
Rich
Harden is looking to give 200 innings to the Rangers:
Yah, right!!!!
After seeing the sun come up day-after-day for my entire life, I've kinda come to expect it without fail.
In a similar vein, I also expect Rich Harden to injure one (or several)
parts of his flawed yet gifted anatomy and wind up on the disabled list for extended periods at any time.
I don't want to hear fractured logic about how trading Kevin Millwood's
solid and reliable 200 innings for Harden's potentially Cy Young Award contending, great 200 innings was a worthwhile risk.
They're not getting 200 innings from Rich Harden. Forget it.
They could've signed Harden and kept Millwood. That would've made sense. They're dreaming
if they believe Harden's going to give them 30 starts. Much like the stat zombies (who are defending the trade of Millwood
and signing of Harden) point to past performance on the field as basis for making decisions, it works with injuries as well.
Past is an indicator as to whether a player will stay healthy; given Harden's history, does anyone think he's going to be
able to get on the mound for anything more than 20 starts, if that? No way.
Tiger, Tiger---heading for couples therapy:
It's not the womanizing that's making people laugh and shake their heads at Tiger Woods. It's never
the actual act that causes the indignation with people who are living in reality---it's the hypocrisy.
Like former New York Governor Eliot (Black Sox Scandal) Spitzer, Woods
was portraying himself as one thing in public while behaving as the exact opposite in reality as he made a vast fortune and
crafted this image of perfection. Is anyone stunned? Really?
Now he's taking time off from golf to replenish his image. One thing I don't want to hear is the excuse
floating around that he was so devastated by his father's death that he went over the edge. I was upset when my father died,
you didn't see me going on a rampage.*
*Of course you could say my rampage is the basic template
and----pardon the pun---par for the course, but that's neither here nor there.
Tiger
had the best of all worlds. He had the beautiful wife and family at home; he had the carefully constructed and maintained
image of family man; he had the endorsements; he had the trophies and status as a historic figure not just in golf, but in
life; and he had the party girls on the side who kept their mouths shut because he bought them stuff or out-and-out gave them
money. That's it.
He didn't lose his
mind after his father died. He was going off and having a ball because he thought he'd get away with it. It was arrogance,
narcissism and horniness. Pure and simple.
Don't believe any other PR stunt he uses to wriggle out of this mess because it's crap. He's not sorry for what he
did. He's sorry he got caught. Period.
The Reds are stuck firmly in the middle of being
rotten and decent. Like me.
What they need: A center fielder; a power corner outfield bat; a veteran
starting pitcher; a veteran shortstop.
Free agents: RHP Kip Wells
Wells didn't pitch badly for the Reds in 2009, but like Brett Tomko, he's a journeyman who'll bounce around and always
have a job as Triple A insurance. He won't be back.
Players available via trade: RHP Bronson Arroyo;
RHP Homer Bailey; RHP Jared Burton; RHP Francisco Cordero; OF Jonny Gomes; RHP Aaron Harang; RHP Micah Owings; LHP Arthur
Rhodes; OF Willy Taveras; 2B Brandon Phillips; RHP Mike Lincoln
Arroyo is a pitcher with
whom everyone (specifically the stat zombies) are quick to find fault as they point out his negatives (lots of hits; lots
of homers; when he's off, he gets pummeled); but they ignore his positives. He throws strikes; gobbles innings; and is absolutely
fearless. You would never have to worry about Arroyo blowing up in a big game because of nerves.
He's making a lot of money $13 million guaranteed through 2010, but
a team with a big ballpark that needs mid-to-back of the rotation help (the Mets?) should look seriously into Arroyo. All
they'd have to do is take the contract and he's a better choice than overpaying for Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro or Gil Meche
and he's certainly better than Randy Wolf.
Bailey regained a semblance of his status as a prospect
in 2009 after being horrific in 2008. That said, he's not out of line for a chat if a team wants to discuss dealing for him.
Burton has become a useful arm out of the bullpen, but he's arbitration-eligible and is due a big raise.
Cordero is on the market. He's making a lot of money ($25 million guaranteed through 2011) and with
the number of closers or former closers available, the only way the Reds will be able to move Cordero is if they're taking
back someone else's rotten contract (Dontrelle Willis? Jeremy Bonderman?).
After the free agent chips fall, Cordero might be traded; he's still a relatively reliable closer.
I doubt Gomes is going anywhere even though he's arbitration-eligible. The Reds were impressed with
his leadership and behavior in the clubhouse; plus he can hit the ball out of the park.
I don't know what happened to Aaron Harang.
He's gone from being one of the most underrated and unknown top pitchers in baseball to a punching bag. From 2005-2007,
Harang was a money pitcher. He threw strikes; he struck out hitters; gobbled innings; and won. I picked Harang to win te NL
Cy Young Award in 2008...and the wheels fell off.
Has his fastball lost a critical few inches? Is his control a shade off so that a pitcher without a dominant fastball
is giving up line drives rather than getting pop ups? Has the Reds defense affected him negatively? His strikeout numbers
aren't that far from where they were at the top of his game; so who knows?
He's guaranteed $14.5 million through 2010 and the only way they can move him is
if they take an Oliver Perez-type contract back. They might as well just hang on to Harang and hope he straightens out.
I can't tell if I like Owings because of his stuff on the mound or because he's such a good hitter
that the Reds and Diamondbacks considered shifting him to the outfield. I still think he's got the stuff to be a 13-15 game
winning pitcher. The Reds are moving him to the bullpen and will use his bat as well. He's arbitration-eligible, so he might
be moved.
Rhodes will always have a job because he's lefty and he's breathing. He
can still pitch, but he's making $2 million in 2010. Someone will take Rhodes either in the winter or at mid-season.
The Reds aren't going to find a taker for Taveras. He was horrible for them in 2009 and is making $4
million next year. They might have to just eat the money if they want to dump him.
Phillips has $18.75 million due him through 2011 and he's one of the Reds more marketable players. He's a good fielder,
has pop and is in his prime. I think he'll be traded.
Lincoln was horrible in 2009 and is making $2.5 million
in 2010. He's going nowhere.
Non-tender candidates: None that I can see.
Players to pursue:
Via free agency: OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); RHP
Jason Marquis (Rockies); SS Miguel Tejada (Astros); OF Coco Crisp (Royals); OF Mike Cameron (Brewers); SS Orlando Cabrera
(Twins); OF Johnny Damon (Yankees); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies);
OF Randy Winn (Giants); OF Marlon Byrd (Rangers)
The Reds were linked with Dye a couple
of years ago in a trade for Homer Bailey that never came to pass. It's doubtful that a player like Dye will fall to the Reds,
but he'd be a good fit on the field and in the clubhouse.
Marquis is asking for a lot of money,
but if everyone fills their needs elsewhere and he's left out in the cold, he might be relegated to accepting a short-term
deal with a team like the Reds.
Tejada can still hit and would be
adequate at shortstop. I have a hunch Orlando Cabrera's going to stay with the Twins and move to second base, but he can still
play the position and hit.
Winn, Nady and Crisp are under-the-radar moves with
moderately high upside. Winn is a vastly underrated players; Nady's coming off a season ruined by injury; and Crisp will be
looking for work and can still catch the ball in center field.
Cameron's not going to
Cincinnati, but they can check in on him just to see where he stands with the Cubs and Red Sox before dismissing the idea
out of hand.
Via trade: OF Melky Cabrera (Yankees); OF Brett Gardner (Yankees);
OF Carl Crawford (Rays); OF Vernon Wells (Blue Jays); OF/1B/3B Miguel Cabrera (Tigers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); OF/1B
Luke Scott (Orioles); RHP Joe Blanton (Phillies); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); 2B Luis Castillo (Mets); OF Aaron Rowand (Giants);
CF Chris Young (Diamondbacks)
The Reds desperately need a center fielder and both Melky Cabrera and
Brett Gardner can be had from the Yankees. Melky Cabrera's a better hitter; Gardner is the fastest white guy I've seen since
Don Beebe and can catch the ball in center.
Crawford's not going to the Reds, but it's worth a
look.
Yes. I have Vernon Wells listed.
His contract is disgusting ($107 million owed through 2014), but what better
way to get rid of the Harang/Arroyo/Cordero contracts than take back Wells? It won't happen, but why not think about it? Maybe
the Blue Jays would kick in some money to get the fitting legacy to J.P. Ricciardi's reign in Toronto out of their sight.
The same situation applies to Luis Castillo. If the Reds move Phillips, they'll need a second baseman
and maybe the Mets would take a bad contract to get Castillo out of town.
The
Giants would move Rowand and he can catch the ball in center; he would regain his power in Great American Ballpark.
The Roy Halladay chronicles:
So now the Phillies are the "favorites" in a handicapping session that changes by the day.
The Phillies are falling into the trap of trying desperately
to maintain the level that won them a World Series and a pennant in consecutive years, but how's this going to work?
They're going to gut their farm system to trade
for Halladay and then sign him to a contract extension? For $140 million-plus?
And what of Cliff Lee? He's a free agent after next year too.
I believe that this deal is going to be so difficult
to pull off that the Phillies are going to back out of even trying. They have money, but not Yankees/Red Sox/Mets money. Are
they going to go for it all next year with Lee/Halladay and the bats and worry about 2011 and beyond afterward? They're getting
old too, so 2010, if they land Halladay, could be the last hurrah for this Phillies group.
Of course it's worth it if they win another World Series, but it's
been proven again and again that the glossy off-season acquisitions don't guarantee continued success. See the Tigers, Red
Sox, Mets and Yankees of years past.
If I had to bet today, I'd say Halladay winds up with the Angels, but in dealing with the Angels, it'd better happen fast.
This has all the hallmarks of not happening quickly and I'd expect it to go down to
the wire before his imposed deadline of "spring training or nothing" goes into effect.
This is not going to be an easy negotiation for the Blue Jays and
if Halladay is basically saying "get me the hell outta here", it's going to get worse before it gets better.
As convinced as I am that neither the Yankees
or Red Sox are as interested in Halladay's services as they are in keeping him away from one another, I'm just as firm in
my belief that the Blue Jays are screwed if the Phillies balk at giving up Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and J.A. Happ (watch
them try to stick Cole Hamels in the deal instead) and can't find a third team to get involved. I can also promise you that
he Angels aren't waiting around while the Blue Jays shop and fiddle and mess around----the Angels make their offers and move
on if they don't get a response in a reasonable time-frame.
Then what are the Blue Jays going to do?
If Halladay is being so obtuse in where he'll agree to be traded that he wants a team that can
extend him and has spring training in Florida, what then? I still think he can fall to the Mets if everything breaks
as it did with Johan Santana. It's unlikely, but possible.
The Blue Jays should've traded him at mid-season. More well-earned daggers pointed at J.P. Ricciardi
for the mess he left behind in Toronto.
I know
you're gonna hate this but remember the 2006 NLCS. Some idiots think he still has that in the tank.
But you're
right.
He doesn't.
Not by a long shot.
It doesn't really bother
me when you mention Suppan, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright in gloating over the 2006 NLCS. The loss had more to do with
Billy Wagner and Steve Trachsel than anything else. Had Guillermo Mota and Wagner not gacked up game 2, I think everyone agrees
that the Mets would've taken the Cardinals out in five games. The Cardinals got the big outs and the big hits when it counted.
The one thing that haunts me more
than anything about that year was Duaner Sanchez's hunger pangs at the trading deadline. That, more than anything, cost the
Mets the World Series.
Quote expected to be overheard in Milwaukee sometime
in May when Ken Macha is fired and replaced by Willie Randolph: "Okay, Willie. Fix this mess."
What they need: Another starting pitcher; more bullpen help; a power bat off the bench; a utility
player.
Free agents: OF Mike Cameron; OF Frank Catalanotto; INF Craig Counsell; C
Jason Kendall; RHP Braden Looper; 2B/SS Felipe Lopez; OF Corey Patterson; RHP Claudio Vargas; RHP David Weathers
The Brewers have already replaced Cameron with Carlos Gomez and Cameron's going to get a multi-year
deal with a contender or would-be contender.
Catalanotto is a journeyman, but a useful journeyman.
He's versatile and can hit; he might be back.
Counsell has carved out a nice, long career for the
undersized and underappreciated fill-in he was when he was a hero for the Marlins in their 1997 World Series win. I expect
him to be back with the Brewers.
The Brewers have already replaced Kendall with Gregg
Zaun.
Looper and the Brewers have agreed to part ways.
After his excellent performance at the plate from the second half of 2008 through 2009, it may be time to accept that
Felipe Lopez has learned how to hit at age 29. That happens with players occasionally----they just figure it out. A better
team will sign Lopez. I'd expect a 2-year deal for him elsewhere.
Patterson's got some
pop in his bat for a bench player. I doubt he'll be back in Milwaukee.
Vargas pitched well for
the Brewers out of the bullpen after he was re-acquired from the Dodgers. He might be back as a reliever/swing starter.
I vaguely recall David Weathers considering retirement. He can still pitch and might be back with the
Brewers.
Players available via trade: OF Jody Gerut; OF Corey Hart; RHP David Riske;
2B Rickie Weeks; RHP Jeff Suppan; 1B Prince Fielder(?)
Gerut's one of those players who disappears for a
year or two with injuries or goes to Japan; people remember him as a pretty decent player and occasionally ask "what
happened to Jody Gerut?", then they forget about him when they can't get an answer; and he pops up on another team and
has some use. He's a fourth outfielder who could bring back a minor leaguer via trade.
Hart has gotten progressively worse since a very solid 2007. The Brewers have openly discussed trading him. (There
was a Hart to the Mets rumor floating around at the winter meetings, something I would not do if I were the Mets.)
He's arbitration-eligible and I think he'll be traded.
Riske's been injured and ineffective. He has $4.75
million guaranteed through 2010. You want him? He's yours.
Weeks is an All Star talent who is maddeningly inconsistent.
He has pop, speed and strikes out too much. He's arbitration-eligible and could be moved.
Suppan throws batting practice.
Nothing wrong with that except he does it during games.
He's guaranteed $14.5 million through next year and that contract is essentially unmovable.
Then we get to Prince Fielder.
I don't see the Brewers trading him this winter under any circumstances. That said, he's signed through 2010 for $10.5 million;
he's arbitration-eligible after next season and will get an award of somewhere around $18 million if they don't sign him long-term.
He's a free agent after 2011. The Brewers find money to sign some odd free agents to lucrative contracts, but will they have
the money to keep Fielder?
Presumably
he's going to want Mark Teixeira money when he's on the loose in the market, so would the Brewers be better off laying the
groundwork to move him sometime next season if they aren't contending? (And it's safe to say they won't be contending.)
They'd be insane not to let it be known that
Fielder could be in play next July depending on their place in the standings.
Non-tender
candidates: RHP Todd Coffey; RHP Chris Narveson; C Mike Rivera
Coffey has shown some
stuff as a set-up guy. He's got a good fastball, but he's arbitration-eligible and due a big raise. I'd be stunned if he was
dumped for nothing after the excellent season he had in 2009.
Narveson pitched well
in 21 games for the Brewers in 2009 with a good strikeout/innings pitched ratio of 46 k's in 47 innings. He's arbitration-eligible,
but I expect him back with the Brewers.
Rivera is 32 and arbitration-eligible. He won't get
a big award in arbitration even if he wins. The Brewers have two veteran catchers in Zaun and George Kottaras. Rivera's iffy
as to whether he'll be back. I'd guess yes, but what's the difference?
Players to pursue:
Via free agency: LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); RHP Danys Baez (Orioles); INF/OF Melvin Mora (Orioles);
INF Jamey Carroll (Indians); LHP Joe Beimel (Rockies); 1B Jason Giambi (Rockies); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); RHP Kelvim
Escobar (Angels); RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); LHP Ron Mahay (Twins); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies);
RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); RHP Bob Howry (Giants); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); RHP John Smoltz (Cardinals); RHP Ben Sheets
The Brewers have committed over $37 million to Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins.
Yah.
I don't get it either.
The
stat zombies love Wolf for reasons I've never quite understood. He's okay, but certainly not a pitcher upon whom
I'd lavish a $30 million, multi-year deal given his injury history despite his health over the past two years.
And Hawkins? Yikes.
The Brewers can still do with an upgrade of their starting pitching. Davis might be affordable on a short-term deal
and he's a former Brewer who----similarly to Adam Dunn, except on the mound----you can write in ink what Davis will provide.
He'll give 200 innings; gut his way through and go 12-12 or thereabouts.
Could the Brewers bring Ben Sheets back for a year or two? He wants a lot of money, but it's something
to think about if he's healthy. Bedard is in the exact same boat as Sheets except Bedard's acknowledged as being a jerk.
Giambi would be a useful bat off the bench who hits for power and can still get
on base.
Depending on what happens with Counsell, Carroll would be a suitable replacement.
Via trade: RHP Manny Delcarmen (Red Sox); RHP Andy Sonnanstine (Rays); OF/1B Luke Scott (Orioles);
RHP Gil Meche (Royals); LHP C.J. Wilson (Rangers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); RHP Joe Blanton (Phillies); RHP John Maine
(Mets); RHP Chris Young (Padres)
The Red Sox are going to trade Delcarmen. He throws
hard and would upgrade most bullpens.
Sonnanstine isn't any good, but he's still better
than what's currently at the back of the Brewers starting rotation, which is a big red flag for the Brewers.
The Royals will give Meche to any team willing to take the contract and give up a mid-level minor leaguer.
Since the Brewers are spending so lavishly for mediocrity (Hawkins), and slightly above-average starters (Wolf), why not make
a move on Meche? He's much better than Wolf.
Morrow's available and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik
worked for the Brewers for years and knows the farm system up-and-down.
The Phillies are quietly taking offers on Blanton; and the Maine-for-Hart idea is something I'd do immediately if I were the
Brewers.
Winter meetings deals and rumors----big, small and strange:
The Rangers do some weird things:
They couldn't get more that Chris Ray and a player to be named later for Kevin Millwood? And they kicked
in $3 million to offset the $12 million he's owed for 2010?
That player to be named later had better be a legit prospect or this trade makes no sense for the Rangers.
And I say this liking Chris Ray's arm and potential. After the deal was completed, the Rangers turned around and signed Rich
Harden for 1-year and $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011.
There's no chance whatsoever of Harden replacing the innings Millwood provided
and, truth be told, I don't think there's much of a chance of him pitching all that much better than Millwood when he does
make it out to the mound.
There's also talk that the Rangers are talking to the Red Sox about a Mike Lowell for young catcher Max Ramirez swap. That
would be a pure salary dump for the Red Sox. Lowell would hit for the Rangers. But would they move Lowell or Michael Young
to first base? I have no idea.
How much of this has to do with the financial troubles of owner Tom Hicks?
Is GM Jon Daniels----who got off to a rocky start when he got the job and redeemed himself with
some brilliant moves and in crafting the best farm system in baseball----suffering a reversion to the days of Adrian Gonzalez
and Chris Young for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka?
I dunno.
All I know is that these
are some strange deals.
Braves trade RHP Rafael Soriano to the Rays for RHP Jesse Chavez:
The Rays have basically turned Akinori Iwamura (traded to the Pirates for Chavez) into Rafael Soriano.
They've beefed up their bullpen brilliantly in an excellent move for Soriano.
Is there something in the water
in Texas?
The Astros acquired Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins for two minor leaguers
to be named later. I've always liked Lindstrom and this is a good move for the Astros (contingent on the Marlins not swiping
two future All Stars without the Astros realizing it---very possible).
But then, the Astros turned around and did something that doesn't even qualify to be called bewildering.
Ludicrous would be a better word.
They signed Brandon Lyon.
To a 3-year
contract.
Worth a guaranteed $15 million.
Yah.
First, Lyon gives up a lot of home runs; second, he was a pitcher who was either going to
be sitting and waiting to see where the other free agent reliever chips fell before scrounging for maybe a 2-year deal somewhere
or a 1-year deal with an option; and third, was the Astros bullpen this giant issue that they're addressing it so aggressively
and, in Lyon's case, stupidly?
The Astros
problems were based on their lack of starting pitching, not the bullpen. After Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, they've got
nothing in their rotation. Plus they're old. They need to get younger and clear some salary. That's why I've continuously
said they should look into moving Carlos Lee, he's expensive but would bring back some quality talent.
The Lindstrom move makes sense. The Lyon move is ridiculous.
And neither handles the Astros real issues. It's lunacy.
This is the last hurrah for this group and they'd
better get it right this winter; if they don't, they're going to be torn apart a year a from now in what will be more of a
mercy killing than a series of regime-changing assassinations.
What they need: To
get rid of Milton Bradley somehow, some way; a second baseman; a center fielder; bullpen help; a veteran starting pitcher.
Free agents: RHP Kevin Gregg; RHP Rich Harden; OF Reed Johnson
Gregg was miscast as the Cubs closer from the beginning. No team with designs on contending can get by using a pitcher
who's as wild and gives up as many homers as Gregg does. I understood the thinking when the decision was made----let Carlos
Marmol do the heavy lifting in the seventh and eighth innings; let Gregg get the outs and rack up the saves----but it didn't
work.
It needn't be said, but I'll
say it anyway: Gregg's gone.
Harden has wicked, Cy Young Award caliber stuff, but durability is sometimes
as (if not more) important than potential dominance. Someone other than the Cubs will sign Harden to a short-term, incentive-laden
contract. I'm not prepared to classify Harden as a Carl Pavano-type who finds injuries to keep him off the field when he's
secure with a guaranteed contract; I think Harden's simply always hurt. I'd seriously look at him as a closer. Gone.
Johnson is a speedy, useful backup outfielder. He might be back.
Players
available via trade: OF Milton Bradley; RHP Ryan Dempster; OF Kosuke Fukudome; LHP Sean Marshall; OF Alfonso Soriano;
2B Mike Fontenot; RHP Carlos Zambrano
Did you hear the Cubs want to trade Milton Bradley?
Not sure why.
Dempster actually had a similar year to his career best season in 2008
after a bad start in 2009, but his record doesn't indicate that. I doubt the Cubs are actively looking to move Dempster, but
he's miscast as a number one starter and is making a lot of money. He's due $26 million guaranteed through 2011 with a $14
million player option; my guess is he exercises the option----who does the negotiating on these contracts for the
Cubs? Dempster isn't going anywhere.
To me, manager Lou Piniella's biggest mistake in the 2008 playoffs was starting Dempster in the first game. If he's healthy,
he's a useful mid-rotation starter.
Piniella's seen enough of Fukudome and I'm not sure
why. Yes, Fukudome raised expectations with his clutch, game-tying homer in his first big league game and he's making a lot
of money ($26.5 million through 2011), but he's a useful player. He might be moved.
Marshall is a tall lefty with potential as a starter, but he'd likely have to go in a deal as a sweetener if the Cubs are
able to move one of the big contracts.
You want Alfonso Soriano? Here are the terrifying
truths in no particular order: he's a DH playing in the National League; his selectivity at the plate is gradually getting
worse; he's getting streakier as he ages; he's about to turn 34; and, here's the big one, is making $90 million guaranteed
through 2014 when he'll be 38-years old.
The only way he's moved is if the Giants desperately want to get rid of Barry Zito and are shutout in all their other attempts
to get a bat. Both Soriano and Zito have full no trade clauses too. Forget it.
Fontenot
had a bad year and the Cubs are actively looking to replace him at second base, but the world wouldn't end if they went into
2010 with him as their regular at the position.
You want Carlos Zambrano?
Piniella, the front office and the fans have had just about enough
of him. Eventually all that potential just becomes a now-familiar lament of "what might have been". He's got $74
million coming to him through 2013; that said, Zambrano's only 28. If the Cubs truly decided to move him, they could do it
and wouldn't have to just give him away. They could get something for him.
Non-tender candidates: INF/OF
Jeff Baker; LHP Tom Gorzelanny
I doubt the Cubs are going to non-tender either Baker
or Gorzelanny. I like the way Baker hits and he's versatile. Gorzelanny is a lefty with great potential even though he's been
awful since a 14-10 year in 2007 with the Pirates.
Players to pursue:
Via
free agency: LHP Mike Gonzalez (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); RHP Danys Baez (Orioles); INF/OF Melvin Mora
(Orioles); RHP Octavio Dotel (White Sox); INF/OF Jamey Carroll (Indians); 1B Jason Giambi (Rockies); RHP Kiko Calero (Marlins);
RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); 2B Orlando Hudson (Dodgers); 2B Ronnie Belliard (Dodgers); OF Mike Cameron (Brewers); RHP Braden
Looper (Brewers); LHP Ron Mahay (Twins); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies);
RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); 1B/OF Matt Stairs (Phillies); OF Endy Chavez (Mariners); INF/OF Mark DeRosa (Cardinals); RHP Joel
Pineiro (Cardinals); RHP John Smoltz (Cardinals); OF Johnny Damon (Yankees); RHP Russ Springer (Rays); OF Marlon Byrd (Rangers)
The bullpen help/backup closer is out there and available. Gonzalez would dominate as a set-up guy;
Putz and Dotel wouldn't be very expensive.
The Cubs are heavily after Cameron contingent on finding
someone to take Bradley. They might sign Cameron anyway even before they dump Bradley; it's not as if they're going to get
anything much for Bradley; it's no secret they're desperate to get rid of him and his value is almost non-existent aside from
taking back a bad contract in return or paying the majority of Bradley's deal just to get him off the team.
Hudson and Belliard are free agent options at second base. I don't think people realize what a useful player Belliard
is and he hits in the clutch.
Piniella never wanted to lose DeRosa and he enjoyed playing for the Cubs.
I didn't quite understand that trade when it was made. A reunion is very possible.
Via
trade: OF Melky Cabrera (Yankees); RHP Manny Delcarmen (Red Sox); RHP Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox); OF Carl Crawford
(Rays); RHP Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); OF David DeJesus (Royals); RHP Gil Meche (Royals); OF Josh Hamilton (Rangers); RHP Kevin
Millwood (Rangers); 2B Luis Castillo (Mets); RHP Joe Blanton (Phillies); RHP Javier Vazquez (Braves); LHP Barry Zito (Giants);
RHP Heath Bell (Padres); RHP Chris Young (Padres)
The Cubs are interested in Cabrera, but I doubt the
Yankees are trading him. I'd check in on Papelbon, just to see what the Red Sox are thinking.
With big names like Crawford, Papelbon, Halladay, Vazquez, the Cubs
are either going to have to part with Josh Vitters and Starlin Castro to get it done or find a third team to sweeten any deal
with kids. The Cubs themselves don't have many prospects (although it's better within the organization than it was a year
ago) and a deal for a star will be complicated.
Meche pitched for Piniella in Seattle and pitched
well. The Royals are trying to trade him and are remarkably stupid, so that might happen for very little or even in exchange
for Bradley.
A question about the Moneyball movie without yelling or screaming:
In case you missed it, Sony's trying to make the Moneyball
movie (again) with a different director----NY Times Story.
Without shouting; without over-the-top
bellowing; without again going over the same points I've repeated ad nauseam, I have one simple question: Where is the movie
here?
Where?
I can totally understand the way Hollywood works. With Brad Pitt attached
to the project and Michael Lewis's book The Blind Side having been made into a successful film, they'll search for ways to
get a Moneyball movie back on track even if realistically and logistically, there's nothing there. If there's one penny to
be made on a Moneyball movie, they're going to keep reworking it and trying over and over to get something done.
But there's no movie there.
Not only has the narrative been proven to be a twisted fantasy designed
to fit the neat storyline skillfully crafted by the author, but as years have passed, the central characters have not only
failed miserably in formulating a "new age" in baseball, they've been fired (J.P. Ricicardi, Paul DePodesta); altered
their strategies to suit themselves (Theo Epstein); or are under fire (Josh Byrnes).
Even the exalted Bill James is being looked at questioningly for his canned
"quirkiness" including that ridiculous essay defending steroid use over the summer. I'd have concerns about someone
who's so egotistical that they say such things as "I'm Bill James and I'm an eccentric."
In addition to that, the main character of the fairy tale----Billy
Beane----is starting to feel the heat himself!
The appellation of "genius" was gone years ago, but now Beane's decisionmaking has been, at best, haphazard.
Observers are rightfully questioning how far he's going to be able to push the "Teflon Billy" persona based on little
more than the book. The stat based building of a team and rampant excuse of financial hardship only goes so far. Repeatedly
tearing down the club by dealing stars for prospects eventually grows tiresome; and his attempts to win with aggressive moves
on veterans Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi failed horrifically in 2009.
Now, the trade for Jake Fox and bewildering 3-year contract offer to Marco Scutaro are placing
Beane directly in the crosshairs of the once-adoring and notoriously gullilble public. Only the hardest of the hard core stat
zombies----who have everything invested in the success of the Moneyball theory----are still mining for reasons to defend Beane.
People are jumping ship like the
Hindenburg and if Beane has another nuclear winter; if the A's have another bad year, Beane himself could wind up being fired,
although I would think that the Athletics would allow him to resign for "other opportunities" to save face.
Beane's under increased scrutiny. His golden touch
is faltering. Make no mistake about it, the ground under him is rumbling not just because of the way he participated and took
advantage of the way the book portrayed him as this infallible entity and everyone who didn't worship at the altar of Bill
James was seen to be an inept moron, but because he's done a bad job.
He put himself in this position and whatever distance he tries to place between himself and Moneyball
is just as farcical as the book itself. He'd better turn things around in Oakland. Otherwise, the story is going to have a
familiar ending to many fantasies created for public consumption----a crash----and more than a few people will quietly applaud;
and it's only because he asked for it.
It's coming.
Fast.
There could be a movie there if things continue down their current road,
but it's ending will be vastly different from what Lewis's book implies.
That movie, I'd like to see. At least it'll be real.
The Yankees-Diamondbacks-Tigers trade:
The deal isn't official yet, but it sounds done
for all intents and purposes. The Yankees will receive outfielder Curtis Granderson; the Diamondbacks RHPs Edwin Jackson and
Ian Kennedy; the Tigers get RHP Max Scherzer; LHPs Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke; and outfield prospect Austin Jackson.
There are several interesting background stories to
this deal. Let's take a look, team-by-team:
For the Yankees:
It's quite interesting how GM Brian Cashman tried to re-stock the
organization of youngsters with the intent of saving money, but has dealt said youngsters without remorse when the opportunity
has presented itself. First he did it with Jose Tabata; now with Austin Jackson.
Jackson's the only player for whom the Yankees might look back one day and regret
dealing. He was their top outfield prospect and is only going to be 23 in February. He'll get a chance to play in the big
leagues with the Tigers and his minor league numbers show he can run and get on base. He also showed some power potential in the lower minors. Truthfully, who knows what Jackson's
going to be?
With Coke, he was a non-prospect
from whom they got some use out of and discarded.
We'll see what happens with Johnny Damon. Now it's really starting to look like Damon's gone and Hideki Matsui will
be back as DH.
Then we get to Ian Kennedy.
The way they propped this guy up from the beginning was ridiculous. I've gotten
a lot of mileage from my accurate assessment of Kennedy when everyone was expecting a Mike Mussina-type superstar. I nailed
it on Kennedy. He does not have the stuff to even be a middle-of-the rotation starter in the big leagues. Period.
And then there's his mouth.
I was literally shocked----shocked----when I read his comments in today's
NY Times. Kennedy, who raised more than a few eyebrows and the the ire of his veteran teammates with his overt reluctance
to utter the simple words, "I sucked" when he got pounded and couldn't throw strikes again and again in 2008, came
up with excuse after excuse; alibi after alibi to account for his woeful results. He did it again in the spring with his yapping.
Apparently he still hasn't learned the cardinal rule for young players in general and young washouts in particular----KEEP
YOUR MOUTH SHUT!!!!
Here are the
quotes in the Times (if you can stomach them):
Reached at his home in Nevada on Tuesday, Kennedy said
he had refined his two-seam fastball in the Arizona Fall League and believed that pitch would make a major difference for
him this season.
“Before,
I couldn’t command my two-seamer; it was always tailing off the plate and no one would swing at it,” Kennedy said.
“It would be really cool to do that famous Greg Maddux thing and start it at a left-hander’s front hip. I’d
love to learn that. Right now, it’s something to get guys to swing at and put the ball in play and save pitches.”
“The Yankees have treated me great since I was drafted,” Kennedy
said. “If this happens, there’s no bad taste in my mouth or any lack of opportunity at all. I made it in one year;
I’d say that’s a pretty good opportunity to have my shot.”
I mean, SHUT UP!!!!
Being confident is one thing. Being a thoughtful worker always trying to improve is another; but this guy has the sheer
audacity to mention the words "Greg" and "Maddux" when discussing himself? Is he this delusional?
I have no words for this. It's inexplicable that he's
still yapping!!!
After
everything that's gone on with him (the aneurysm aside); with all the vitriol he attracted in the clubhouse with his obliviousness
to the appropriate behavior for a young pitcher and his rotten performance, he's still yapping!!!
Had Kennedy pitched well, he'd get away with being a big mouthed rookie.
Barely. But he...was....hideous. My honest assessment of Kennedy's potential is that of a back-of-the-rotation starter
or long reliever. If that. That's it. That's what he is. But as long as he looks in the mirror and still sees Greg Maddux
(My GOD!!! Is this guy out of his mind?!?) and comprehends neither the etiquette of the big leagues nor reality, he's going
to be a pariah in his own clubhouse.
If I were the Diamondbacks, I'd have Kirk Gibson get into his face on the first day of camp; tell him to adhere to the rookie
code of speaking when spoken to and being seen and not heard; that he's not Greg Maddux; he's not going to be Greg
Maddux and the sooner he realizes his place, the better off he'll be. Then maybe he'll have some success in the big leagues.
The cliches baseball players say to reporters are there for a reason and Kennedy had better learn them. Gibson can add the
words "or else" and mean them, because that may be what Kennedy needs---a good ass-kicking.
For
the Diamondbacks:
They get Edwin Jackson, who will do well in Arizona.
And Kennedy? Who knows. I wouldn't expect much.
In trading Scherzer and Schlereth, the Diamondbacks give up two of their top prospects, but I didn't see enough in
either to make them untouchable. Jackson's an upgrade on both.
For the Tigers:
What would concern me if I were a Tiger fan was that the two most marketable trading chips they had
went in the same deal and they got Scherzer (who has power stuff and should be a closer----Jim Leyland will see that immediately);
Schlereth (a lefty who I think has gotten more attention than his abilities warrant because he's former football star Mark
Schlereth's son); and Austin Jackson (great potential, but who knows?); and Coke (a journeyman).
Now what? The Tigers are stuck with the horrible contracts of Dontrelle
Willis, Carlos Guillen, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman----none of whom are going anywhere unless they take a similarly
atrocious contract in return.
Things are going to get bad for the Tigers. Very bad.
Retaining Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan keeps
the Cardinals competitive, but did they need this Mark McGwire aggravation? I say no.
What
they need: A third baseman; a power outfield bat; bullpen help; another starter.
Free
agents: OF Rick Ankiel; INF/OF Mark DeRosa; 3B Troy Glaus; INF Khalil Greene; OF Matt Holliday; RHP Joel Piniero;
RHP John Smoltz; RHP Todd Wellemeyer
Ankiel had a rotten year and won't be back.
DeRosa is a player that La Russa would like to keep because of the way he conducts himself and his
versatility, but he's in heavy demand and will get much more money than the Cardinals will be willing to pay.
Glaus was injured for much of 2009 and might have to wait until the Adrian Beltre/Garrett Atkins types
sign or are traded before finding a home. He's gone.
Greene had issues with depression and played poorly
for the Cardinals. Gone.
The Cardinals rolled the dice in giving up top prospect Brett Wallace
to the Athletics to get Holliday in the misguided hopes (I thought it was possible too) that Holliday would have a similar
affection to St. Louis as Jim Edmonds, Mark McGwire and others had and stay for less money than he'd get on the open market.
Such a belief only goes as far
as looking at who Holliday's agent is----Scott Boras----and will be eliminated as reality sets in. Holliday wants to get paid
(as is his right) and I see very little possibility of him returning to the Cardinals.
My money would be on Holliday going to Boston as soon as they deal a big
contract (Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew).
Piniero was a classic La Russa/Duncan reclamation
project who will get bigger offers elsewhere. I think Piniero's going to the Mets.
Smoltz can still pitch as a starter or reliever and he'd be a perfect back-of-the-rotation veteran for the Cardinals. There's
a good chance he's back.
Wellemeyer had a horrid 2009 after a solid, across-the-board season in
2008. He might be back.
Players available via trade: RHP Kyle Lohse; OF Ryan Ludwick; RHP Jason
Motte; OF Colby Rasmus
Lohse is making a lot of money and had a rotten 2009 after a breakout
2008 under La Russa/Duncan. In fairness, Lohse was hurt and there's every chance of him rebounding. That said, he's due over
$30 million guaranteed through 2012 and that's a contract they'd like to move.
Ludwick
was a journeyman before getting to the Cardinals. He got a chance to play regularly in 2008 and hit 37 homers; his numbers
declined drastically in 2009 and he's arbitration-eligible. He's 31 and the club can use an upgrade.
Motte has a great arm and the only way he and/or Rasmus get traded is if the Cardinals pull off a blockbuster of the
Roy Halladay/Felix Hernandez/Josh Johnson variety and it's going to take a lot more than Motte and Rasmus to get such a thing
done.
Non-tender candidates: RHP Josh Kinney
Kinney was terrible in returning from Tommy John surgery. He's arbitration-eligible and will be non-tendered, but he could
be back as a non-roster invitee.
Players to pursue:
Via
free agency: LHP Mike Gonzalez (Braves); RHP Danys Baez (Orioles); INF/OF Melvin Mora (Orioles); OF Jason Bay (Red
Sox); RHP Octavio Dotel (White Sox); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); LHP Joe Beimel (Rockies); 1B/3B/OF Aubrey Huff (Tigers);
RHP Kiko Calero (Marlins); 1B/OF Ross Gload (Marlins); SS/3B Miguel Tejada (Astros); OF Coco Crisp (Royals); OF Mike Cameron
(Brewers); 3B Joe Crede (Twins); LHP Ron Mahay (Twins); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); OF Johnny Damon (Yankees); OF/1B Xavier Nady
(Yankees); 3B Adrian Beltre (Mariners); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); 3B Pedro Feliz (Phillies); RHP Chan Ho Park (Phillies);
RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); OF Randy Winn (Giants); RHP Russ Springer (Rays); 3B/1B Hank Blalock
(Rangers); OF Marlon Byrd (Rangers)
I like the Brad Penny signing. He reportedly only
got a 1-year guarantee of $7.5 million with $1.5 million in incentives and, if he's healthy, he's just about as good as John
Lackey. The history of La Russa/Duncan rehabilitating pitchers will make Penny a more-than-suitable replacement for Piniero
and a solid three behind Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.
The Cardinals have
some money to spend even though in years past they've been reluctant to spend it unless they were backed into a corner. They're
going to have to show Albert Pujols that they're serious about offering him lineup protection, so while Holliday's gone, there's
a chance they jump into the bidding for Jason Bay.
The relievers mentioned are either popular on the
market (Gonzalez) or the types of veterans who are returning from injury and/or are perfect for the La Russa way of putting
his relievers in the best possible situations for success. Baez, Springer, Myers----all fill that role.
The Cardinals desperately need a bat at third base and Beltre would be perfect. If they miss out on
him (or don't want to pay him), Crede, Blalock or even a shifting Tejada would be a good fit relatively cheaply. People are
down on him because of his PED use and the revelation that he's older than he was initially thought, but Tejada can still
play.
The lack of dialogue between the Yankees and Damon is curious. The Cardinals
won't offer him four years; nor will they probably offer him three, but he could find himself having to accept a two year
contract from someone.
Dye's the type of player that La Russa and the Cardinal fans would love.
Via trade: 3B Mike Lowell (Red Sox); RHP Manny Delcarmen (Red Sox); OF Carl Crawford (Rays); RHP
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); RHP Jeremy Accardo (Blue Jays); 3B Edwin Encarnacion (Blue Jays); 1B/OF Luke Scott (Orioles); RHP
Chris Ray (Orioles); OF Delmon Young (Twins); RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers); OF/1B/3B Miguel Cabrera (Tigers); 3B Jhonny Peralta
(Indians); OF David DeJesus (Royals); RHP Gil Meche (Royals); RHP Kevin Millwood (Rangers); OF Josh Hamilton (Rangers); OF
Nelson Cruz (Rangers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); 3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); RHP Matt Lindstrom
(Marlins); RHP Josh Johnson (Marlins); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); OF Ryan Church (Braves); 3B Garrett Atkins (Rockies); 3B Kevin
Kouzmanoff (Padres); RHP Chris Young (Padres); RHP Heath Bell (Padres); 3B Mark Reynolds (Diamondbacks)
There are so many third basemen available that the Cardinals will be able to find a good one. I love Encarnacion's
talent, but knowing La Russa's history with players who brainlock, it'd take five spring training games before he wanted to
strangle Encarnacion.
The Red Sox want
to rid themselves of Lowell's contract and wouldn't ask a lot in return. He's only got one year left at $12 million. Peralta
or Cantu would be good fits.
Could the Cardinals replace Holliday with Miguel Cabrera? The Tigers are
cleaning house and while the Cardinals farm system is somewhat weak, maybe Rasmus/Motte and a couple of minor league pieces,
plus taking the Cabrera contract and a Nate Robertson/Jeremy Bonderman could get it done. That kind of protection in the lineup
would mean a triple crown possibility for Pujols.
And what of Halladay?
Like the Mets, the Cardinals don't have the minor league depth to get
a deal done unless the price drops drastically. Halladay's not a money-whore so there's a bigger chance of him staying in
St, Louis for less money than he'd demand in Boston or New York. Can you imagine a rotation of Halladay/Wainwright/Carpenter?
Terrifying.
Dark
clouds looming over the Tigers:
If the discussed three-team trade between the Tigers, Diamondbacks and Yankees is valid, it's worse than expected in
Detroit.
The proposed deal would send
Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks; Curtis Granderson to the Yankees; and Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Michael
Dunn to the Tigers.
Yah.
This is what's classically known as a housecleaning.
Scherzer has a great arm, Jackson's a top prospect for the Yankees; but Granderson is the Tigers best asset to deal because
of his reasonable contract, that he plays center field, hits for power and can run. If this is an indication of how far the
Tigers are going to start a rebuild, they're not just going to be bad for the next 2-3 years, they're going to be hideous.
Their farm system is barren because of a series of aggressive and retrospectively ludicrous deals (Jair Jurrjens for Edgar
Renteria?) and their payroll is bloated with dead weight.
Is Jim Leyland regretting signing that contract extension yet? At his age and with his resume, does
he need the aggravation of nearly 100-losses? We all know the answer to the question.
The Tigers are in deep, deep trouble.
Brian Bruney? Ivan Rodriguez?
What do the Nationals need with Brian Bruney?
And Pudge Rodriguez? 2-years at $6 million?
Bruney's got a good fastball when he's healthy, but that's the rub. He's
always hurt and he's arbitration-eligible.
With Pudge, the Nationals have a young catcher in Jesus Flores who needs to play; Pudge didn't sign for two years to
sit.
For a team like the Nats,
neither of these moves make any sense at all. None.
Should
I try this?
This
was interesting. In today's NY Times, there's an article about a man named Jesus Leonardo who's known as a "stooper"----link. A "stooper" hangs around racetracks and horseracing parlors, sifts through discarded tickets searching for winners
that were unknowingly discarded. He makes a living at it.
Should I give that a shot?
It's an idea and given my luck at the track, I'd undoubtedly do better as a "stooper" than I do with my bets----and
that's not saying much. Maybe going to the track is a waste of time for me, but at least I get some fresh air and a little
rush from the action. That's something.
I'm not ready to "stoop" to digging in the garbage for the off chance I find a winner. Things aren't that bad----yet.
Give me time though.
Viewer Mail
12.8.2009:
Gabriel writes
RE Roberto Alomar:
I wonder if Alomar is going in as a Blue Jays member.
I'd certainly be very happy about it.
I don't see what other cap he'd wear. Toronto was
where he made his star. He didn't win any titles with the Padres, Orioles or Indians and forget about his other homes as he
bounced around at the end. He's a Blue Jay. No question.
I'd love to see Mattingly get in, but I agree that he
probably won't. Well, no "probably" about it. He won't.
It's
such a shame he hurt his back. If it'd been any other body part, he would've maintained a semblance of his greatness. Mattingly
was a one-man-gang in the mid-80s; the epitome of a wrecking machine.
Awesome post Prince. Finally someone that agrees with
me that Andre's low career OBP% shouldn't keep him out of the Hall. You're right it wasn't his job. Do you know that he is
10th all-time in sacrifice flies, I take that over a walk any day of the week.
My argument for Dawson has been that throughout baseball upon his arrival, on base percentage wasn't as much of a focal
point as it is now, for better or worse. When a young player like Dawson gets to the big leagues with the rep as a power bat
who drives in runs, his old-school manager (Dick Williams) isn't going to want him taking pitches with runners on base. Back
then, it was either do what the manager says or don't play.
The same argument that applies to Bert Blyleven as his strikeout/ERA numbers outweigh his mediocre
won/lost record applies to Dawson in the opposite direction. He did what he was asked to do----swing the bat and drive in
runs. Just as Blyleven's numbers are meant to put him into a Hall of Fame context, the same type of nitpicking stats are excluding
Dawson from his rightful place as a Hall of Famer.
I think he's getting in this time anyway.
John Seal writes RE Harold Baines:
If
I had a Hall of Fame vote, I would vote for Harold Baines because my wife would kill me if I didn't. She gave him perhaps
the best baseball nickname ever: Honey Bear (she thought he looked like the animated spokes-creature for Super Sugar Crisp
breakfast cereal). Other A's nicknames we created together over the years: 'Peanut Butter' Blanton (because I think young
Joe resembles a chubby Elvis), 'Butt Gut' (former rookie sensation Brent Gates, who Tony La Russa promised A's fans would
compete for batting titles for years), and Double Play Kendall (self-explanatory). Yeah, I know that last one isn't very imaginative,
but it really summed up Kendall's contributions to the A's nicely.
Considering
some of the reasons that voters come up with to exclude players (Jim Rice was punished for years because he didn't say "good
morning"), voting for a guy because of a rational fear of one's wife isn't out of line.
Can't get enough of "Super Sugar Crisp"!
The thing about Baines is that the Hall wouldn't implode
if he was inducted. Had he won an MVP; been an integral part of a championship team; or played the field with any regularity,
he'd be in the same position as Dawson and have many more boosters.
Bringing up La Russa's hyperbole regarding Brent Gates is one of the few faults you can find for La
Russa as a manager. Like Sparky Anderson, he occasionally found a young player and saddled him with expectations that Joe
DiMaggio couldn't have fulfilled. He did it with Rick Ankiel too.
As for the nicknames, I've never been great at creating ones that stick. Although when I was in college,
we had a catcher named Caesar, and he was little; therefore, courtesy of yours truly, he became "Little Caesar"
which in turn became "Pizza Pizza".
Then there was the nickname that I (all on my own) gave Michael Barrett in which he became known (in my world anyway)
as Michael "The Right Hook" Barrett after firing what was one of the best punches ever thrown on a baseball field
square to the jaw of White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski. Not only did that punch make Barrett an Internet sensation, but it
probably got him a load of free beer from all the other players around baseball that wanted to do the same thing to Pierzynski,
but never got the chance.
What they need: Top to bottom pitching; a second baseman; a corner outfield power bat; influential,
leader-type veterans.
Free agents: C Josh Bard; RHP Livan Hernandez; OF Austin Kearns; LHP
Ron Villone; 1B Dmitri Young
Despite having a poor year at the plate for the Nats, Bard can hit. His
best chance to get semi-regular playing time is to return to Washington.
Hernandez, Kearns and Young are all gone.
Villone is a journeyman who had the good fortune to be born left-handed and
still has use out of the bullpen. A better team will invite him to camp on a minor league contract and he's got a good chance
of making that team. He won't be back.
Players available via trade: 1B/OF Adam Dunn; RHP
Jason Bergmann; SS Cristian Guzman; OF Elijah Dukes; RHP Saul Rivera; LHP Scott Olsen; OF Josh Willingham
Dunn's attractive on the trade market because: A) he's got one year remaining on his contract at $12 million; B) an
interested team knows exactly what they're getting without fail; and C) he wouldn't cost that much in terms of players.
Unless someone bowls them over with an offer
of exactly what they want (young pitching; a young bat with power potential) the Nats would be smart to wait until the free
agent dust settles into January before stepping up their efforts to move Dunn. I think he'll be traded this winter.
Bergmann's arbitration-eligible and I've always loved his arm. They'll get a moderately useful minor
leaguer for him.
Guzman is making $8 million and, like Dunn, any team interested will pretty
much know what they're getting----respectable defense; occasional pop. They could conceivably move Guzman to second base.
His future is bleak in Washington with the emergence of Ian Desmond, but that contract is hard to move unless they take back
a Luis Castillo-type deal from the Mets. It's not that bad an idea for either side.
I'm in the minority, but I think Dukes is salvageable. He's got MVP talent and his anti-social behaviors (fights, arrests,
etc) make him toxic. He needs guidance more than anything. If I were a team with nothing to lose like the Padres, Royals or
even the Mets I'd be willing to roll the dice on Dukes after speaking to him and making sure he's willing to try and behave
appropriately. There were no public issues with him last season.
Rivera had an atrocious
year and wound up back in the minors in 2009, but he's been a historically durable and solid reliever. Someone will take him
off the Nats hands; he's arbitration-eligible and might get non-tendered.
Another super-talent
who's got off-field issues, Olsen is probably going to get non-tendered. Maybe the Yankees and the one manager who was able
to handle Olsen----Joe Girardi----should take a chance. There was a classic clip of Girardi yanking Olsen down the runway
steps of the Marlins dugout by his neck and screaming in his face. That's what Olsen needs.
Willingham is an underappreciated power bat by the public, but smart inside baseball people know how good he is. He
won't come cheaply, but he's arbitration-eligible and the Nats have so many other holes, they'd be stupid to hold onto Willingham
if they get a solid offer of multiple minor leaguers. He wants out of Washington and he'll probably be dealt.
Non-tender candidates: LHP Matt Chico; RHP Logan Kensing; C Wil Nieves
Chico is a soft-tossing lefty who'd be better-served to start throwing sidearm and try to be come a Tony Fossas/Mike
Myers-specialist out of the bullpen.
Kensing throws hard and showed some usefulness for
the Marlins before getting to Washington. He's arbitration-eligible.
If the Nationals go to
arbitration with Wil Nieves, someone needs to be fired.
Players to pursue:
Via
free agency: OF Garret Anderson (Braves); 1B Adam LaRoche (Braves); RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks);
1B Chad Tracy (Diamondbacks); RHP Danys Baez (Orioles); INF/OF Melvin Mora (Orioles); RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies); RHP Kevin
Gregg (Cubs); RHP Rich Harden (Cubs); OF Reed Johnson (Cubs); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); RHP
Kiko Calero (Marlins); 1B/OF Ross Gload (Marlins); RHP Doug Brocail (Astros); 2B Orlando Hudson (Dodgers); RHP Jon Garland
(Dodgers); OF Mike Cameron (Brewers); RHP Braden Looper (Brewers); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); OF Randy Winn (Giants); LHP
Erik Bedard (Mariners); INF/OF Mark DeRosa (Cardinals); OF Marlon Byrd (Rangers); 1B/OF Kevin Millar (Blue Jays)
Aside from players like Nady, Tracy and Baez (guys coming off injuries and in need of jobs); players
who have some use but few options (Mora; Anderson; Millar), it's hard to see the Nats getting any "name" players
unless teams fill their holes elsewhere and said players (the Garlands and Marquis of the world) fall to the Nats.
There are "attitude" guys like Brocail who
would add to any clubhouse, especially a young and influential group like the Nats. Dye isn't going to Washington; nor is
Hudson; but both players, along with Anderson would be very positive influences on Dukes.
The Nats are going to have to wait and sift through the remnants after
the free agent chips start to fall.
Via trade: RHP Jeremy Accardo (Blue Jays); INF/OF
Brandon Inge (Tigers); 1B Paul Konerko (White Sox); OF David DeJesus (Royals); RHP Gil Meche (Royals); 1B Jack Cust (Athletics);
2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); RHP Matt Lindstrom (Marlins); RHP Jason Motte (Cardinals); 2B Luis Castillo (Mets); OF Aaron Rowand
(Giants); RHP Chris Young (Padres)
No big names here. But the Nats can deal Dunn and
bring in a similar and cheaper player like Cust, they'd save some money. If the Giants are interested in a swap of contracts
and get a Dunn type of player, they can deal Rowand to the Nats for Dunn and Guzman.
Castillo would fill the Nats' second base hole and they can get a contract
like Guzman's off the team. Meche can be had for nothing and, if he's healthy, is a good influence on the young pitchers and
can still pitch.
The Padres will
move Chris Young and if he's healthy, could be a 15-game winner if he improves his durability.
In short, most players wouldn't choose to go to the Nats if they have other options, but mutually advantageous deals
can yield big returns. That's where the Nats should focus their efforts as they rebuild. They have some good players.
The Pedro Martinez situation is getting sad:
After his performances in the playoffs and World Series, it's not as if Pedro Martinez is pulling a
Steve Carlton and embarrassing himself by hanging on long after his sell-by date----Pedro can still pitch; but what's the
cost in terms of stature?
I'm of
the opinion that if a player still wants to play, it's no one's business to tell him to retire; but Pedro's annual proclamations
of his own availability strikes a tone of desperation. He did it last year with the Mets and now he's doing it with the Phillies.
It's similar to a guy telling a moderately interested girl who can take him or leave him that he's ready for a date at anytime,
anyplace. All that does is make her less intrigued and plants the seed for ill treatment.
Does Pedro need to announce that he still wants to pitch?
That he's able to still pitch?
While he may not have the stamina to be counted on over the course of
a long season, Pedro proved he still has the guile and savvy to get hitters out, so why the open recruitment of suitors with
the almost-embarrassing pronouncements to the Phillies and anyone else who'll listen that "I'm here!!! And I wanna pitch
for you and you alone----or anyone else who calls with an offer."
Add in that Pedro still wants to be paid moderately well and won't accept a minor league/incentive-laden
deal and you'll likely see a situation almost identical to 2009 when he signed in August. It's not such a bad idea for Pedro
or the interested clubs to see where they are in July/August; but everyone knows Pedro can still pitch and wants to pitch.
He doesn't need to broadcast it.
Pleading for a job is unnecessary and unbecoming for a pitcher of his stature.
The Prince's Hall of Fame votes, yes or no:
If I had a vote in the Hall of Fame balloting, here
are my picks and non-picks of this year's candidates:
Roberto Alomar--Yes. No debate.
Harold
Baines--No. He kind of hung around as a stat-compiler and was a very good player for a long time. Never dominant
and lost in the shuffle, if he'd won one MVP and played the field a little more, he'd be in.
Bert
Blyleven--If Don Sutton and Gaylord Perry are in, Blyleven should be in. I'd have Tommy John in before Blyleven,
but can they elect him already so we don't have to hear about it anymore?
Andre Dawson--Yes.
I don't want to hear about his low on base percentage. The man did his job as instructed. His job was to drive in runs and
that's what he did.
Andres Galarraga--No. Possibly a PED guy and had his numbers bolstered
by playing in Colorado to reignite up a fading career.
Barry Larkin--I have a problem with the "automatic"
nature that people attach to Larkin while ignoring Alan Trammell, who I think was a better player. Let Larkin wait a couple
of years.
Edgar Martinez--Yes. He was relatively unknown for most of his career,
but during his heyday, opposing pitchers and managers feared him as much if not more than Ken Griffey Jr. There was no way
to pitch to him. So what if he was primarily a DH?
Don Mattingly--The same standards that let Kirby
Puckett get in could be applied to Mattingly. Puckett's career was cut short by glaucoma; Mattingly's by his back. But he's
not getting in and I don't think I'd vote for him.
Fred McGriff--Yes. There shouldn't be a question.
Crime Dog played clean and put up numbers year-after-year.He was a good guy and a better fielder than given credit for too.
Mark McGwire--No. I've said in past years that I'd vote for him but his preposterous, cringeworthy
instances of uttering non-denials regarding his PED usage have annoyed me to the point that I wouldn't vote for him under
any circumstances.
Jack Morris--Yes. Morris was a winner and post-season ace.
Dale Murphy--No. Almost, but not quite. A Bobby Bonds-type who had the ability, but doesn't cut
it for the Hall of Fame.
Dave Parker--No. In the same boat as Murphy.
Tim
Raines--Not yet. I need to consider Raines for a couple of years. I know the stat zombie argument that he's better
than Lou Brock and Dawson, blah blah blah. I don't really think Raines belongs in the Hall but I can be convinced as I was
with Blyleven.
Lee Smith--If you let Smith in, you have to let John Franco and Jeff
Reardon in and none are Hall of Famers. They accumulated saves and were mostly pretty good, but were never even dominant at
doing their own jobs.
Alan Trammell--Yes. Trammell's
a Hall of Famer. He was
a great fielder who played wonderfully in big games. If he'd won the MVP he deserved in 1987, would he have already been elected?
In his fourth attempt
at co-writing a biography, Darryl Strawberry finally got it right.
Much like his life in which his on and off-field struggles, addictions, immaturity and illness ruined
what should have been the rightful successor to Hank Aaron as baseball's home run champion; one of the greatest players in
history; a multiple MVP-winner and key player in dynasties, Strawberry continually repeated the same mistakes over-and-over
again in hiding his secrets, exemplified with cleverly crafted subterfuge, documented in the previous three books.
Now, in a no-holds barred, no subjects off limits,
Strawberry comes clean with the real root of his wild days and nights as one of baseball's biggest stars who could've been
so much more.
The stories of Strawberry's
out-of-control lifestyle can be rooted to a chaotic home life in which he and his siblings endured the mental and physical
abusive of their father. Fear and self-loathing led Strawberry to smoking pot and drinking at a young age. His athletic talents
saved him from a life of nothingness, but those talents didn't prevent him from willingly walking down the path of self-destruction.
The book is not a self-righteous documentation of
excuses to explain the pissed away talent; the lawsuits; drug and alcohol addiction; spousal abuse and financial ruin, but
it does delve deeper into why someone such as Strawberry----who by all accounts is a generous guy who truly means well and
never turned down an autograph request, especially from children----would ruin chance after chance to regain his lost greatness.
Even hard core Mets fans will be shocked at the depravity
reached by the out-of-control team from the 80s. Drugs are referenced by outsiders as Strawberry's (and those Mets in general)
problem, but it was alcohol and women that were the main culprits in the missed expectations of Strawberry and the team. The
championship club in 1986 wasn't simply the best team in baseball; it wasn't hated because of its arrogance----the rest
of the baseball was legitimately afraid of them. Every time a fight broke out there was a very real chance that Kevin Mitchell
was going to kill someone---even teammates tread lightly around him. Strawberry's revelations make clear why the Mets front
office acted so swiftly in busting up that group in trading Mitchell for Kevin McReynolds.
The rise, fall, rise, fall and rise again of Strawberry is a better cautionary
tale for young players than any mandated course a team could provide. Young men who haven't the faintest idea what to do with
their money; which "friends" and flunkies should be dispatched; and why young players need guidance is documented
in Strawberry's book. Because he was a moderately uneducated man-child, presented with gifts that should've made him a legendary
figure and contributed to his downfall, Strawberry is in a unique, "been there, done that" position to teach youngsters
what traps to look for and avoid.
Strawberry, devoutly religious and notoriously flawed, detonated every opportunity because of his self-loathing and attraction
to the wild side. He became addicted to crack; ruined two marriages that were rife with instances of physical abuse; found
himself in jail and out of baseball. Tested by his upbringing, lack of maturity, sudden wealth and fame in a city with temptations
at every corner (temptations in which he was more than willing to indulge), falling off the wagon, and finally being diagnosed
with and beating cancer, this isn't some armchair pop-psychology exercise in telling youngsters how to behave----it's a straight
from the horse's mouth explanation of what can happen when the word "no" is never uttered on either end.
This book should be required reading for young, burgeoning
superstar athletes because it's a clear, line-by-line example of what not to do from a Hall of Fame talent that did
it all on and off the field; he never fulfilled that potential because of his weaknesses. Now he's using his name and fame
to help others. They'd be smart to listen.
The
problem with the plug-ins:
Mentioning Kevin McReynolds and the 80s Mets made me think of why it's such a mistake to plug stat-machines into team and
expect them to automatically make any club "better". Those Mets teams (especially the 1987 team) were said to have
failed because the pitching didn't repeat their work from 1986. That was a major issue, but how much did the absence of intimidation
provided by Mitchell and the leadership of Ray Knight destroy the would-be dynasty?
On paper, of course McReynolds was a major improvement over Mitchell.
McReynolds was a clutch power hitter and the best defensive left fielder in baseball who put up numbers year after year. But
that's not the only part of building a championship team. A vital part of what made those 1986 Mets gone with Mitchell, but
that frightening swagger that pretty much said, "we're gonna kick you asses playing the game, we'll physically kick your
asses too if you've got a problem with it----your choice".
Did Howard Johnson put up better numbers than Ray Knight could've and would've in the mid-to-late 80s?
Absolutely. The argument could be made that for a few years, Johnson was one of the five best players in baseball; but Knight
was a leader on and off the field who was willing to fight anyone, anywhere at any time. Keith Hernandez mentioned a rumor
in his book of Knight doing a number on Cesar Cedeno and that Knight camly and matter-of-factly invited Dave Parker (nicknamed
Cobra for a reason and it wasn't a term of endearment) to step into the ring before a game...and Parker backed down.
Would the 1987-1990 Mets have been better off
in keeping together that group of maniacs that ran roughshod through baseball on and off the field? They might've imploded;
and given the stories that have been told by Jeff Perlman in his book, and by Strawberry it's likely they would've flamed
out totally.
It's understandable
why ownership and GM Frank Cashen saw and heard enough in 1986 and the fear of an uncontrollable scandal spurred them to tear
things up under the pretense of making the club "better", but occasionally, it's better to ride the wave even if
it goes flying over the cliff. In retrospect, that's what the Mets of the 80s should've done. They could've ran 1000 miles
into a wall, but they also could've notched two more championships. And it would've been worth it.
Searching for explanations of the Chone Figgins contract:
I've never been one to complain about the amount of
money paid to or received by players. My argument has always been that if a team targets a certain player, feels they need
him and if (this is important) the amount of money they pay to that player does not preclude them from making other necessary
moves, then who cares about the salary?
The whole new definition of a player's value (the stat zombies have a formula to decide what a player is worth, I have
no interest in it) is determined by a set of numbers, but what's the difference? The Yankees threw money at their problems
last year and won a championship. Do I think A.J. Burnett was a worthwhile risk for the money he got? No. But they won a championship.
The Red Sox flung big dollars at all their holes in 2006-2007...and they won a championship.
My issue with this stuff is the hypocrisy and self-justification.
Both the Yankees and Red Sox came up with holier-than-thou self-justifications as they tried to build through the farm system
and save money and quickly abandoned the strategy when enraged fan bases revolted as they didn't make the playoffs (the Red
Sox in 2006; Yankees in 2008).
There's nothing wrong with spending money to fill holes, but teams are for some reason embarrassed by it and the stat zombies'
main objective isn't to find better ways to build teams, but to accrue credit for being "smarter".
"Well, we got player A for 3-years, $20 million
when player B cost $29 million for the same years; we're smarter."
Who cares? What's the difference? The Yankees had the money to spend on Burnett; on C.C. Sabathia;
on Mark Teixeira. So? They spent it and they won.
Then we get to Chone Figgins and his new $36 million, 4-year deal with the Mariners (it vests to $45 million and 5-years
with incentives, details will presumably be available when the contract's official).
Desperately in search of reasons why this is a good deal, we're hearing such
crap as "maybe the Mariners are finding flaws in the market that diminish the importance of power"; or the classic,
"well Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is smart, therefore he must know what he's doing."
Uh, yah. I've found it dangerous to automatically give someone a pass
because of prior intelligence and that there's no other reason to justify what he's done aside from some faulty tenet of him
"knowing what he's doing".
Sometimes being stupid is just being stupid.
I went into the reasons why I wouldn't have signed Figgins for that amount of money yesterday. If the Mariners get
a power bat like Jason Bay, then the Figgins signing won't be the gaffe that it is now. But a team with the pitching issues
of the Mariners had better have a plan in place, because a team built on pitching and defense needs both pitching
and defense. That the Mariners have little pitching behind Felix Hernandez and no power whatsoever makes them a work in progress.
Flaws in the market can't explain
away a load of money given to a player like Figgins----who's a step above Juan Pierre----if they don't bring in a Bay or John
Lackey. And those players won't be acquired by brains; they'll be acquired by money. Smarts have nothing to do with it. Don't
let anyone tell you any different.
Joe
Girardi, man about town:
Am I the only one who thinks the New York Jets bringing Yankees manager Joe Girardi into camp to teach quarterback Mark Sanchez
how to slide was a made-for-press photo op to draw some attention where none was warranted? In fact, it was dumb. Do the Jets
and Sanchez really need Girardi to teach an athlete of Sanchez's caliber how to slide? Did the guy never play baseball
at all?
This whole thing is a byproduct
of Girardi riding along on a championship team that could've won with twenty other managers. In fact, Girardi came precariously
close to blowing the title for his club with his gaffes of overmanaging in the ALCS against the Angels. If Brian Fuentes had
been able to close out game 2 and the Angels had played the solid fundamental game they normally do, Girardi might've gotten
fired and not been the toast on New York that he currently is. (Is he writing a book about his managing style yet? If not,
he will. Mark my words.)
The appellation
of Girardi being "Don Zimmer with stats", implying that he'll go with his gut when necessary and use numbers to
back him up is what really makes the old-school successful manager angrier than anything of the era of the stat zombie. Tony
La Russa, Jim Leyland and Joe Torre take rightful offense to the diminishing of their experience to the adherence of out-of-context
numbers.
You can't stat your way
into 40 years of experience no matter how smart you are.
Girardi is a very bright guy, but there have been numerous instances in his short managerial career where he's made humongous
mistakes because he had neither the experience nor the balls to go with his gut and do what was right even if it looked wrong
on paper.
To say to La Russa, Leyland
and Torre that their instincts are misplaced when they say they looked at their pitcher and knew he wasn't going
to get out of a certain jam; or that they just knew that a certain hitter was a bad matchup for a specific situation
when the stats said otherwise is an insult on the surface. Such an evaluation comes from experience at not just managing players,
but in understanding people and body language.
Girardi's getting credit because he won.
I suppose that's fair. But to blow it out of proportion as anything more than what it is----a guy who was steering a team
full of stars and got away with massive playoff screw-ups----is twisting and turning bottom-line success into a basis for
validation. And it's wrong.
Ooooh... all this Billy Beane bashing is getting me
excited. On the real.
And now it's not just payback for Moneyball anymore.
It's more of a comeuppance. There's legit questioning of what he's doing and why.
Beane can deny his involvement in Michael Lewis's bit of creative
non-fiction all he wants, but he made more than a few enemies with the way he was portrayed as this infallible genius and----consciously
or not----made everyone who committed the sin of not being Billy Beane or a stat zombie want to participate in his downfall.
He's doing some remarkably idiotic/strange things lately and if it continues on this current road, it's not hard to see where
it's going to end.
Interesting article in today's Times about Jason Marquis
and how he still lives in Staten Island. Could be a nice fit for the Mets, since he's a local boy.
I read that article----link----and have no problem with the Mets getting Marquis as a back of the rotation starter. Even with the potential addition
of Marquis, they'll still need a legit 1A guy behind Johan Santana and Marquis ain't it. That said, a rotation of Santana,
(the 1A guy, John Lackey for example); John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Jason Marquis, Oliver Perez wouldn't be all that bad.
Another thing I found funny about the article is how
the writer Ben Shpigel----presumably a fellow Jew to Marquis, you and me----worked it into the piece that Marquis is Jewish
as if to say, "Look, we've got athletes too. We can do more than just your taxes or get you out of prison on a plea bargain."
I know you think Theo doesn't want Drew's contract.
But that isn't the case. Drew has played well enough in two of three years, and he plays on both sides of the ball. Plus,
if nothing else, he is a stopgap now until the kids are ready.
So, are you back now,
Joe? You think you're returning to my good graces after disappearing without explanation for months? Jeff's taking charge
temporarily in a couple of weeks and still wants to extract his pound of flesh or at least use various Fulbright-sanctioned
techniques to find out whether or not you're a spy. Tread carefully. The man's a little trigger happy.
As for Drew, why else would the Red Sox have even considered trading him
for Jeff Francoeur early last summer----the last guy you'd think the Red Sox would be interested in because of his
hitting style (swing hard at everything no matter where it is in case he hits it)----unless they wanted to get out from under
his contract?
They'd be more than
happy to deal Drew. They need the payroll flexibility and have to get younger.
While it's trendy and easy to attack the Mets
after the 2009 catastrophe, things aren't that bad. A rapid turnaround is very, very possible.
What
they need: A veteran, innings-gobbling starting pitcher; a low-cost serviceable starting pitcher; a power bat in
left field; a first baseman; a starting catcher; a second baseman; bullpen help.
Free agents:
1B Carlos Delgado; RHP J.J. Putz; OF Gary Sheffield; INF Ramon Martinez; INF/OF Fernando Tatis; RHP Elmer Dessens
Delgado is going to be in demand as soon as he proves that he's healthy in winter
ball. He'll have options to move to the American League and DH part-time; the Mets will be very interested in bringing him
back on an incentive-laden deal. Delgado is a businessman first and foremost and while he'd come back to the Mets in the right
deal, he's not going to let any implications of "duty" to give the Mets some payback after the lost season of 2009
affect his decision. I don't think he's coming back.
Putz has sounded agreeable to a return to the Mets
as well, but he'll get offers to close elsewhere (Detroit? Houston?); he won't be back.
The Mets would bring in Milton Bradley or coax Bobby Bonilla and Tom Glavine out of retirement before they re-signed Sheffield.
Martinez has some use as a utility infielder and might be back.
The admirable and heartwarming story of Fernando Tatis is well-known by now. He came back to baseball in order to make money
to build a church in the Dominican Republic; he won Comeback Player of the Year for the Mets in 2008, etc. It's a nice story....and
it's over. It's time for the Mets to move on with a better jack-of-all-trades who's more of a hitting threat.
Dessens is a veteran who pitched admirably out of the bullpen in 2009. He'll be back.
Players available via trade: 2B Luis Castillo; LHP Oliver Perez; RHP Sean Green; RHP John Maine;
1B Daniel Murphy; OF Angel Pagan; RHP Bobby Parnell; RHP Mike Pelfrey
The Mets are going to
move Castillo if they have to pick up half of the remaining $12 million on his contract. They might even take Milton Bradley
to move him. Castillo actually had a good, productive year for the Mets in 2009, but they need a better bat at second base.
Castillo's gone.
You want to be the next one in line to make the futile attempt to straighten
out Oliver Perez and take the remaining $24 million he's owed? He's yours.
Green's new, sidearm motion makes him more agreeable to keep around. The production of relievers varies from year-to-year;
that said, Green's arbitration eligible and will probably be moved.
Maine has 18-win potential,
but his injuries and wildness are getting to be too much to take. He's arbitration-eligible and due a big raise, so they'll
talk about him in a trade; but he's going to get another chance to blossom (or at least repeat his 15-win 2007) with the Mets.
The Mets would be well-served to "git while the gittin's good" and listen if someone wants
Murphy as part of a package to get a bat or an arm. And if they think Murphy's an everyday first baseman as has been implied,
it's going to be a long season in Flushing----again.
Pagan is a guy who every manager ends up wanting to
strangle because he's so talented and is such a space cadet. Teams are pursuing him. He's 50/50 to be back with the Mets.
Parnell has a great power fastball, but if the Mets pull off a blockbuster, he's likely to go as part
of the package.
I'd listen to offers on Pelfrey in a big deal for a proven starter or
power bat or for a pitcher (Brandon Morrow) who's fallen out of favor with his club. Pelfrey's arbitration-eligible.
Non-tender candidates: RHP Sean Green; LHP Pat Misch; OF Jeremy Reed
I doubt they'll non-tender Green, but it's possible.
Misch showed enough as a long man/spot starter that I'd keep him around at the right price.
Reed's gone.
Players
to pursue:
Via free agency: LHP Mike Gonzalez (Braves); RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves);
1B Adam LaRoche (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); 1B Chad Tracy (Diamondbacks); RHP Danys Baez (Orioles); INF/OF Melvin
Mora (Orioles); OF Jason Bay (Red Sox); RHP Octavio Dotel (White Sox); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); INF/OF Jamey Carroll (Indians);
LHP Joe Beimel (Rockies); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); RHP Fernando Rodney (Tigers); RHP Kiko Calero (Marlins); 1B Nick Johnson
(Marlins); 1B/OF Ross Gload (Marlins); RHP Doug Brocail (Astros); RHP John Lackey (Angels); 2B Orlando Hudson (Dodgers); RHP
Jon Garland (Dodgers); INF Orlando Cabrera (Twins); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); OF Hideki Matsui (Yankees); RHP Justin Duchscherer
(Athletics); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); 1B Russell Branyan (Mariners); INF/OF Mark DeRosa (Cardinals); RHP Joel Piniero (Cardinals);
RHP Russ Springer (Rays); C Bengie Molina (Giants)
I'd keep tabs on both Gonzalez and Soriano as set-up
men, preferably Gonzalez. Teams appear reluctant to give up a first round pick for the useful Gonzalez and it's a mistake.
LaRoche is an underrated player all the way around and if the Braves vacillate, the Mets should strike.
There are the lower-cost relievers like Baez and/or Calero who could fall to
the Mets; Brocail is a well-respected clubhouse presence, a fiery guy and he can still pitch a little.
I'd go heavily after Gload if I were the Mets. Carroll is in demand as a utility guy.
Would Cabrera move to second base for the Mets? His teams tend to wind up in the playoffs, so if Orlando Hudson goes
elsewhere (this is all contingent on moving Castillo), it's not a bad idea.
I'd prefer Bay by a large
margin over Matt Holliday, who I don't think is a good fit for the Mets.
The Mets are the heavy
favorites to get Molina. He still handles pitchers well and has pop in his bat for the bottom of the lineup.
I feel relatively certain that they'll end up with Piniero and it's a good move on a reasonable deal.
Could Lackey fall to the Mets as Francisco Rodriguez did? Maybe.
Via
trade: LF Carl Crawford (Rays); RHP Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); RHP Jeremy Accardo (Blue Jays); 1B/OF Luke Scott (Orioles);
RHP Chris Ray (Orioles); OF Delmon Young (Twins); INF/OF Miguel Cabrera (Tigers); RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers); 1B Paul Konerko
(White Sox); OF David DeJesus (Royals); RHP Gil Meche (Royals); OF Juan Rivera (Angels); RHP Kevin Millwood (Rangers); RHP
Brandon Morrow (Mariners); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); 1B/3B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); RHP Matt Lindstrom
(Marlins); OF Josh Willingham (Nationals); OF Milton Bradley (Cubs); OF Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs); OF Carlos Lee (Astros); C
Ryan Doumit (Pirates); RHP Chris Young (Padres)
Do the Mets have the minor leaguers to get a mega-deal
the likes of Crawford or Cabrera done? The consensus is no, especially for Crawford. For Cabrera, would taking his salary
and giving up one top prospect and a couple of good ones be enough? Maybe.
I want Carlos Lee above
both Bay and Holliday. The Astros have said he's not on the block, but I'd keep asking and let them know to let me know
if they change their minds.
Meche can be had for a team that's willing to take his contract and if
he's healthy, he'd win 15 games for the Mets. The same can be said for Millwood, but the Rangers aren't giving him away.
I'd check with the Mariners about a Pelfrey for Morrow swap. I think Morrow's better and he needs to
get out of Seattle.
The Marlins have no qualms whatsoever about dealing within the division
and I'd move Uggla to first base if I could get him.
They screwed up once in dealing Lindstrom for Jason
Vargas. I'd get him back for the right price.
I've long been a fan of Willingham, but the Nationals
aren't going to give him away for nothing. The Mets like him too and will keep tabs on that situation.
Milton Bradley in New York? I wouldn't do it, but if it gets Castillo's contract out of here, it's not something to
dismiss out of hand if the Cubs made up the difference in the contracts of the two. I'd consider it and try to get assurances
(for what they're worth) from Bradley that he'll behave. (Yah, right!)
Then we get to Roy Halladay.
The Mets do have the prospects to get him
now if they're willing to gut the system. But it could go another way if they hold their fire.
The Halladay situation is almost creepy in its similarity to what happened
with Johan Santana in 2007-2008. The very idea that the Mets were players in the negotiations was rightfully ridiculed at
the outset. The Yankees and Red Sox were the front-runners and either/or was widely expected to get a deal done, but neither
club appeared all that interested in giving up a chunk of their farm system and ostensibly sign Santana as a free
agent after the fact.
The Twins,
overplaying their hand, waited too long to trade Santana and as time passed, one team after another withdrew. Spring training
approached and Santana----with a gentleman's agreement between himself and the Twins----wanted the situation handled before
he reported. Faced with no other options, Twins GM Bill Smith took what the Mets offered in terms of players (essentially
nothing at the time and absolutely nothing in retrospect) to get the situation behind them.
I'm convinced (and this will never be authenticated on the record by anyone)
that both the Red Sox and Yankees let Mets GM Omar Minaya know through back channels that they weren't in on Santana and that
he shouldn't give up any more than the bare minimum to get the deal done.
The Blue Jays are faced with this now concerning Halladay. And Roy Halladay is more aggravated at the
Blue Jays than is being let on. They embarrassed him as they made public his quiet request to be traded at mid-season; then-GM
J.P. Ricciardi botched the trade negotiations and Halladay was stuck in Toronto. He's already said he wants out before the
spring and it's no "gentleman's agreement" between him and the Blue Jays; it's a "get me the hell outta here"
demand. The longer it goes, the uglier it's going to get and the price for the pitcher is going to drop as the days pass.
Is it likely that the Blue Jays are going to make
the same mistake the Twins did and leave the Mets as the last team standing that can: A) give them anything at all to get
Halladay, and B) pay for the contract extension to keep him? No. But it was considered absurd that the Mets would get Santana,
and look what happened.
For all
his faults, mistakes and botching of the English language, backing someone as savvy as Minaya into a corner is a mistake because
he comes out swinging with both fists.
Echoes of Juan Pierre:
The Mariners are doling 4-years and $36 million for Chone Figgins?
That's not all.
The contract supposedly vests (details aren't available yet) so that it could be worth $45 million
over 5-years.
The stat zombies are in
love with Figgins for some reason, some going as far as saying he's as good a player as Jason Bay.
Yah.
Here are the objective, realistic, non-zombie facts on Chone Figgins:
He's a speed guy who's about
to turn 32:
Players like Rickey Henderson and Lou Brock, who are able to maintain
some semblance of their speed, don't come around very often. In fact, that's why both are in the Hall of Fame; that and because
they could also hit the ball out of the park.
Is Figgins going to get faster as he ages? He's not a particularly great basestealer to begin with. He got caught stealing
17 times in his 59 attempts last year. Not good. Do the Mariners and the stat zombies think he's going to be stealing 40 bases
(or even 30 bases) at age 35?
He has no power and strikes out too much:
Figgins is good for 3-6 homers a year.
At third base or left field.
Historical power positions.
He strikes out over 100 times a year.
With no power.
I'm not of the school
that certain positions have to be manned by a player who hits the ball out of the park, but the Mariners don't currently
have anyone who can be counted on to hit home runs. One would assume they're going to find a power bat somewhere
at first base or left field, but the DH spot is clogged up by Ken Griffey Jr and his nonsensical and sentimental re-signing.
Who's driving in the runs for the Mariners?
Small ball and defense are great, but the Mariners don't have the pitching to play that game and contend.
The zombies say he's "versatile":
Yeah?
So?
He can play left field, third base or second base. So what? Is that versatility worth that money with
what his game provides?
To me, Figgins is a step above Juan Pierre. A slap hitter who can run.
His on base ability will be mitigated by his penchant for getting caught stealing and that the Mariners don't have anyone
to knock him in on a consistent basis.
This capricious signing from a GM, Jack Zduriencik, who's been a solid talent evaluator and pretty smart GM so far is a disaster
in the making. This off-season, with the re-signing of Griffey and this stupid move, is off to a bad start for the Mariners.
Really bad.
That's right, Einstein. What
tipped you off?
Has Billy
Beane lost his mind?
For what possible
reason would the Athletics offer 3-years and slightly more money than the Red Sox for Marco Scutaro?
To do what?
Are the A's contenders who need a plug-in here and there to take the next step? Because that's what
Scutaro provides. He's not a difference-maker; he's a competent player who's complement to what a team like the Red Sox already
have.
The A's have a load of young pitching,
so they'll be competitive next year, but this revelation combined with the strange trade Beane made to get Jake Fox show a
man who isn't simply human, despite his portrayal in Moneyball, but a man who's revealing himself to be relentlessly mediocre.
If the A's have a bad year next year,
could Beane be in trouble? The blame game----it was said by way of alibi that owner Lewis Wolff spurred Beane to make the
aggressive trade for Matt Holliday last year and to sign Jason Giambi----only goes so far. Eventually Beane is going to have
to answer for his baseball-related crimes. And it could be happening before our very eyes.
The Teflon Billy persona is wearing thin.
Either the pressure's getting to him, or he was never that smart
to begin with.
The truth is coming out
day after day. And it's portending a bad ending for Billy Beane, Super Genius on a level with Wile E. Coyote.
The Braves might already be the best team in
the National League; and they're one power bat away from being devastatingly good----World Series favorites good.
What they need: A power bat for first base/corner outfield/third base (if they shift Chipper Jones
to another position); another productive bat.
Free agents: LF Garret Anderson; LHP Mike Gonzalez;
1B Adam LaRoche; RHP Rafael Soriano; OF/1B Greg Norton
Anderson can still help
a team as a part-time player, but the Braves need a drastic upgrade in left field. He'll wind up back in the American League
where he can DH part-time.
Gonzalez is one of the most sought-after free agents in baseball because
he's lefty; racks up the strikeouts; and can close if necessary. The Braves have already replaced him and Rafael Soriano with
Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. (Getting Saito is a great move.)
Both Gonzalez and Soriano are gone. Gonzalez will probably get a 3-year deal somewhere early in
the free agent period. Soriano might have to wait until February if he's looking for a better deal than he'll get now; teams
that miss out on their primary targets will move onto the next tier of reliever, and that's Soriano.
LaRoche and the Braves belong together, but the club's waiting and addressing other needs before dealing with LaRoche.
I think that's a mistake. If they wait too long, someone's going to jump in on LaRoche, who's highly underrated both offensively
and defensively.
Norton might be back as a bat off the bench. A guy who batted .145 and
still managed a .330 on base percentage has a home somewhere.
Players available via trade:
OF Ryan Church; SS Yunel Escobar; INF/OF Kelly Johnson; RHP Kenshin Kawakami; RHP Derek Lowe; LHP Jo Jo Reyes; OF
Jordan Schafer; RHP Javier Vazquez
It took about a month-and-a-half for the Braves to
learn what the Mets did about Ryan Church----his numbers and his tools are misleading as to what type of player he is----and
they benched him. He's a journeyman who brainlocks at inopportune times and while it was understandable that the Braves had
grown so frustrated with Jeff Francoeur that they wanted him out of their sight and took what appeared to be a decent on-paper
offer for him in Church, they're going to rue the day they made that trade.
GM Frank Wren has let personal feelings with players affect him and his job before
(notably Cal Ripken Jr in Baltimore) and his feud with Francoeur led him to do something stupid. Church is arbitration-eligible
and due a big raise from his $2.8 million salary and there'd be a chance of him getting non-tendered if they club didn't want
to save face for that trade. As things are now, if they upgrade with a power bat for right field, Church might be part of
the trade or they simply might move him for a low-level minor leaguer.
Escobar is a showboat
and angered the Braves with his laziness and temper tantrums, but they'd be stupid to trade a talent like that unless a lot
was coming back. I doubt he's going anywhere. He's got superstar skills.
Johnson
has no position and had a rotten year at the plate. He's arbitration-eligible and might get non-tendered.
Of the three starters----Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami and Javier Vazquez----one's going to get dealt. Of the three,
Kawakami's contract is the most palatable for someone to take (slightly over $13 million for 2010-2011) and he's a decent-enough
back of the rotation starter.
Lowe's
got $45 million guaranteed through 2012 and he's not going anywhere unless the Braves take a similar contract back or someone
thinks his struggles over the second half of the season were a mere slump. The thing with Lowe that's ignored is that he could
conceivably move back to the bullpen for the last few years of his career.
Vazquez had a great year and would bring the most back in a trade. Only due $11.5
million next year, I'd be amazed if they traded Vazquez.
Reyes is a soft-tossing, lefty journeyman. Plain and
simple.
Schafer was the flavor of the
month early in the season when he got off to a hot start, but it took very little time for the big league fastball to overmatch
and lap him like a distance runner who's pulled up lame. He can be had in a trade.
Non-tender
candidates: Aside from Johnson and the unlikely non-tendering of Church, I don't see anyone they'll let go for nothing.
Players to pursue:
Via free agency: OF Jason Bay (Red Sox); INF/OF
Jamey Carroll (Indians); 1B/OF Ross Gload (Marlins); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); INF/OF Chone Figgins (Angels); OF Mike Cameron
(Brewers); 1B Carlos Delgado (Mets); OF Johnny Damon (Yankees); OF Xavier Nady (Yankees); OF Randy Winn (Giants); OF Matt
Holliday (Cardinals); OF Marlon Byrd (Rangers) OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox)
Unless the Braves can
move Lowe's contract, they're not getting in on Bay or Holliday.
Damon might be a fit
if he's unable to find the 4-year deal he wants. If his demands lower to 2-years the Yankees will keep him; but the Braves,
if shutout in every other avenue, decide they want Damon, he could end up in Atlanta.
Figgins could move to left field (or they could conceivably shift Chipper Jones to first base----my suggestion----or
back to the outfield) and Figgins would be a fit.
Cameron will have nothing to do with shifting to a
corner outfield spot again after the disaster that was with the Mets, but he's a better defender in center than Nate McLouth,
who could move to left or right. Winn is very underrated and wouldn't be that expensive in dollars or years; Dye is a popular
former Brave who can still hit.
Delgado's a low-cost alternative for first base, Johnson
is an injury-risk, but if they find a power bat for left (or third), he'd take a 2-year deal.
Gload's a good guy off the bench; and Nady's a roll of the dice with a big reward. Byrd's a cheap fill in if they get
a basher to play first or third.
Via trade: OF J.D. Drew (Red Sox); 3B Mike Lowell
(Red Sox); OF Carl Crawford (Rays); OF/1B Luke Scott (Orioles); OF/3B/1B Miguel Cabrera (Tigers); OF David DeJesus (Royals);
OF Juan Rivera (Angels); OF Nelson Cruz (Rangers); OF Josh Hamilton (Rangers); 1B Jack Cust (Athletics); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins);
3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); OF Josh Willingham (Nationals); OF/1B Adam Dunn (Nationals); OF Milton
Bradley (Cubs); OF Carlos Lee (Astros); 3B Garrett Atkins (Rockies); 3B Mark Reynolds (Diamondbacks)
Many of these names are contract deals. There was talk of a Francoeur for Drew swap early in the summer before the
Church trade. Drew had one of his best seasons with the Braves and is from Georgia. Would the Red Sox take Kawakami and Lowe
for Drew and Lowell to get out from under the contracts and make a move on Matt Holliday or Miguel Cabrera? Maybe.
The Braves have the prospects to get anyone in baseball including Crawford and Cabrera. They're not
giving up Jason Heyward for those players, but the Braves could get something done to get a power bat like Dunn or Reynolds
if they're willing to move Chipper to another position. Would they take the shoddy defense of either or Jack Cust to get the
power their bats provide?
Willingham is one of the most unsung power bats in
baseball. I've always liked the way he hits and he's exactly the type of hitter that no one knows until he's holding up the
trophy for NLCS/World Series MVP.
There are the risky names like Bradley and Hamilton.
Why not call and ask? They could get them for pennies on the dollar and have a big payoff.
The
free agent/trade dominoes start to fall----some strangely:
Phillies sign Placido Polanco...for third base?
This
is a weird thing to do considering the number of actual third basemen floating around and that Polanco's a second baseman.
The Phillies gave Polanco a 3-year, $18 million contract
to shift to third. He can play the position of course, but wouldn't it have been better to sign Miguel Tejada to make the
move? To trade for Mike Lowell, Garrett Atkins or Jhonny Peralta? Or to simply keep Pedro Feliz?
I don't understand this. Polanco's 34 and the Phillies have gotten older
and probably not better. In a similar quick-strike, the Phillies grabbed Raul Ibanez early in the free agent process in what
was called an overpayment for an older player; it looked to be a stroke of genius as Ibanez was one of the best players in
baseball over the first half but faltered badly in the second half.
Was it the National League pitchers figuring Ibanez out?
Was it that he was worn down and nicked by injuries?
Was it that he's aging?
Was it a predictable decline?
Or was it a combination of all of the above?
I'd be worried about Ibanez; I'd be worried that the Phillies are getting old in their lineup; and I wouldn't have
made this move for Polanco.
Red Sox sign Marco Scutaro:
If it were anything more than 2-years for Scutaro, I'd say no; but on a 2-year deal with Scutaro safely ensconced in what
should be a top lineup? With the Green Monster to shoot at?
Absolutely.
He'll hit 15 homers for the Red Sox and play shortstop well enough and they're saved from the desperate proposed move of Dustin
Pedroia to short. They still need a big time basher for the lineup, but this was a good deal to fill a hole rather than to
shoot for the moon of Hanley Ramirez/Yunel Escobar/Jose Reyes/Jimmy Rollins to play short.
On another note, Scutaro----and in demand free agent----stooped to giving Red Sox officials a private workout before
they agreed to a contract. If anything was a window into the sad state of affairs for free agents in today's market, it's
that. When was the last time the clubs were in such a strong position to force a free agent coming off his career year to
audition for them?
Cubs trade OF/3B/1B Jake Fox and INF Aaron Miles to the
A's for RHP Jeff Gray, RHP Ronny Morla and OF/1B Matt Spencer:
Jake
Fox's middle name is Quirin. Quirin?
Another odd move from A's GM Billy Beane. Fox is no kid (he's 27); he's put up big power numbers in the minors and he doesn't
really have a position. The A's have a load of those guys and it really hasn't worked on the field in recent years. Michael
Lewis's sequel to Moneyball may be on permanent hold along with the Moneyball movie.*
*MONEYBALL HASN'T
WOOOOOOOOOOORKED!!!!!!!!!
Miles had a rotten year with the Cubs, but he's been a good utility guy
in the past and could rediscover that with the A's.
Gray's shown signs of being a useful reliever; Morla's a kid (21) and has put up promising strikeout numbers
in the low minors; Spencer's put up power numbers a high as Double A.
The Cubs wanted to get rid of Miles and build some depth in what was a weak farm system and this looks
like a win for them and another roll of the dice for Beane and the A's.
Needless to say, the appellation of genius is fleeting.
Time for another Marlins housecleaning and reloading.
What they need: A power outfield bat; a veteran starting pitcher; bullpen help, specifically a veteran
who can close if necessary; a backup catcher.
Free agents: RHP Kiko Calero; RHP Brendan Donnelly;
1B/OF Ross Gload; 1B Nick Johnson; RHP Luis Ayala
Both Calero and Donnelly were typical Marlins scrapheap
pickups from whom they managed to get some valuable use. Calero had a fantastic year----durable and effective against both
lefties and righties. No way he's back.
Donnelly was languishing in the minors, bouncing from club to club when he was recalled by the Marlins and automatically took
a major role as a set-up man and even notched a couple of big saves. He might be back.
Gload wants to return to the Marlins and they want him back, but sheer finances and his value make that unlikely. Gload
had a load of big hits off the bench for the Marlins and should get at least a 2-year deal from someone. He'd be a great fit
for the Mets, the Phillies and the Braves to name three teams. Gload was born in Brooklyn and I have a feeling he'll wind
up with the Mets.
Nick Johnson showed why he's in demand and is a massive risk all in the
span of one season. He had an excellent season for both the Marlins and Nationals, hit well and played solid defense and got
on base. He also got hurt with a strained hamstring late in the season, severely compromising the Marlins playoff run. Someone
will sign him to a good multi-year deal. He won't be back.
Ayala gives up a lot of homers, but he has use as
a set-up man. He might be back.
Players available via trade: 1B/3B Jorge Cantu;
2B Dan Uggla; SS Hanley Ramirez; RHP Josh Johnson; OF Cody Ross; C Ronny Paulino; RHP Brian Sanches; RHP Matt Lindstrom; LHP
Renyel Pinto; RHP Ricky Nolasco
It's a cycle with the Marlins----and a successful
one----that once their players start to make big money, they clear the decks and extract the best minor leaguers or underappreciated
talents from whomever they're trading with. After two years of contention and overachievement (at least in the eyes of the
stat zombies----I'm still waiting for props for my accurate call on the Marlins this year; I'm not holding my breath), it's
time for another housecleaning. And that includes everyone on the roster.
Cantu and Uggla will both be moved. After being dumped by the Rays and Reds literally for nothing,
Cantu rejuvenated his career with the Marlins. He's a determined, clutch power hitter and racks up the RBIs.
Uggla is nothing if not consistent. A team acquiring
him knows what they're going to get----hard nosed play, poor defense, power and strikeouts. He won't be looked at as simply
a second baseman either. Teams in need of a first baseman or corner outfielder will want to make a move on Uggla as well.
You hear endless stuff about Ramirez and Josh Johnson not being on the block. Maybe not, but they are
available for the right price and that price would be steep. I don't think they'll be traded this off season, but they're
in play if someone calls the Marlins and wants to chat.
What a shock! Another
productive player the Marlins got for nothing in Cody Ross can be had via trade. Ross is arbitration-eligible, is due a giant
raise from his $2.25 million salary and will be moved.
Paulino is arbitration-eligible,
had a fine year splitting time with John Baker and is a useful all-around player. They can find someone to replace him in
a flooded market. There is a chance he stays and I think he will.
Sanches, Pinto and Lindstrom
are all arbitration-eligible. Sanches and Pinto's salaries aren't likely to be so expensive that the Marlins will dump them;
I say they stay. As for Lindstrom, there will be teams lining up to get their hands on his 100-mph fastball. I still do not
know what was going through Mets GM Omar Minaya's head when he traded Lindstrom for the hideous Jason Vargas.
Lindstrom's going to be traded.
Nolasco pitched so horribly early in the season that
he wound up back in the minors after winning 15 games in 2008. It woke him up and he pitched very well from June to the end
of the season. He's arbitration-eligible and due a big raise from his $2.4 million salary. Unless they're bowled over with
offers, he and Johnson will be with the Marlins to start the season when they'll be held up for auction if the team struggles.
Non-tender candidates: OF Alfredo Amezaga
Amezega's about to turn
32 and doesn't do much of anything to justify the raise he'll get in arbitration from his $1.3 million salary. Gone.
Players to pursue:
Via free agency: RHP Rich Harden (Cubs); C Ramon
Castro (White Sox); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); LHP Joe Beimel (Rockies); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); C Yorvit Torrealba
(Rockies); RHP Brandon Lyon (Tigers); RHP Fernando Rodney (Tigers); RHP Doug Brocail (Astros); C Miguel Olivo (Royals); RHP
Carl Pavano (Twins); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); C Jose Molina (Yankees); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics);
INF Bobby Crosby (Athletics); RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies); RHP Brad Penny (Giants); SS Khalil Greene (Cardinals); RHP John
Smoltz (Cardinals); C Rod Barajas (Blue Jays)
The Marlins don't jump capriciously into free agency,
but they do mine the market for bargains on mutually advantageous contracts. Harden, Penny, Bedard and Smoltz fall into this
category as starting pitchers.
Pavano had his greatest success with the Marlins and we know he likes the beach.
A
veteran closer would be a useful asset to the Marlins and Putz, Rodney and Lyon would presumably be willing to act as set-up
men/tutors for the ultra-talented Leo Nunez and/or Lindstrom.
Greene's value couldn't
be any lower after the rotten years he's had on and off the field in recent years----he's a perfect fit for the Marlins on
a low-cost flier.
They may or may not need a backup catcher who can play relatively regularly.
Castro and Olivo are both former Marlins. Torrealba and Barajas fill that bill as well.
Via
trade: RHP Joba Chamberlain (Yankees); RHP Phil Hughes (Yankees); C Jesus Montero (Yankees); RHP Clay Buchholz (Red
Sox); RHP Daniel Bard (Red Sox); RHP Michael Bowden (Red Sox); SS Casey Kelly (Red Sox); INF Gordon Beckham (White Sox); RHP
Matt Harrison (Rangers); LHP Derek Holland (Rangers); RHP Neftali Felix (Rangers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); LHP Ryan
Rowland-Smith (Mariners); RHP Kyle Drabek (Phillies); LHP J.A. Happ (Phillies); OF Michael Taylor (Phillies); Jayson Heyward
(Braves); Tommy Hanson (Braves); RHP Bobby Parnell (Mets); RHP Mike Pelfrey (Mets); OF Fernando Martinez (Mets); RHP Jason
Motte (Cardinals); 3B Josh Vitters (Cubs); SS Starlin Castro (Cubs); SS Alcides Escobar (Brewers); 3B Mat Gamel (Brewers);
OF Matt Kemp (Dodgers); LHP Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers); RHP Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers); RHP James McDonald (Dodgers); OF Dexter
Fowler (Rockies); OF Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies); RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies); LHP Madison Bumgarner (Giants); RHP Chris Young
(Padres); RHP Heath Bell (Padres)
Yeah, these are the top prospects/young players from
any and every organization that would or should have interest in Josh Johnson and/or Hanley Ramirez.
You want 'em?
Give it up.
And the Marlins do not miss when they target a prospect and there's very little ambiguity or negotiation.
"You want <blank>? You gotta give
me <this, this and this>."
We'll see what happens and who's willing to give up the biggest package(s) for the Marlins superstars. Teams would be well-served
to back away from Roy Halladay and go after Johnson. It's going to cost a huge package of the whole farm system anyway and
they won't have to dole out the contract extension that Halladay will require to keep him.
Don't be stunned to see a massive Marlins BLOCKBUSTER sometime during the winter. You heard it here.
Braves sign Billy Wagner:
In a good deal for both sides, the Braves solved their
closer problem by signing the veteran Wagner to what amounts to a 2-year deal. He's guaranteed $7 million next year with a
vesting club option of $6.5 million that kicks in if he finishes 50 games in 2010.
Wagner will get to pitch in the South and close to his Virginia home for
a team that promises to be a legitimate pennant contender next year and he's better than both Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez.
That said, the Braves should know
what to expect from Wagner. He looked very good for the Mets and Red Sox after returning from Tommy John surgery and I'd expect
him to stay healthy for the two years----Wagner keeps himself in great shape. He'll rack up most of his save opportunities
during the season, but if they're expecting him to get big outs in September and October, they'd better be prepared to walk
the tightrope.
While there are
big game closers you can trust----Mariano Rivera, Bobby Jenks, Jonathan Papelbon----there are the next tier who you don't
know what they'll do in a playoff or playoff-type game. Those guys are Trevor Hoffman, Joe Nathan...and Billy Wagner.
Believe me when I say this because it was Wagner's
blowing Game 2 of the NLCS in 2006 that was one of the major factors that cost the Mets the World Series. I've seen it firsthand
and if the Braves know this going in, they won't be shocked when it happens to them.
Viewer Mail 12.3.2009:
Mike writes RE Brian Cashman:
I agree that in the past cashman has been quite the prospect hugger--but let me ask you a question. I
was shocked that he didn't offer damon arbitration. I just can't see Boras letting him accept so now Cash is losing those
prospects. any thoughts on this?
It was a shock that he didn't offer Damon arbitration.
I would think that it'd be a very cost-effective thing to do if Damon didn't get the offers he wanted on the market; but considering
the year Damon had and that it's highly unlikely that he's going to repeat those numbers again, a strategy of going on a "1-year
deal and try free agency again" simply wouldn't make sense for Damon at age 36. I'd think that in the worst case scenario,
someone----the Mariners, the Giants, the Cardinals----would offer Damon at least a 2-year deal, so he wouldn't have even accepted
arbitration. It's a little weird that they declined to make the offer.
This might be a sign that the Yankees are playing it cool, acting like they're out of the big
free agent market and will quick strike at Matt Holliday just as they did with Mark Teixeira last year.
Jeff at Red State Blue State writes RE Brad Lidge and the lack of free agent action:
I CANNOT WAIT for the rips
to begin on Lidge again in 2010. I got so used to dipping into the neverending pile of Lidge jokes that I don't think I could
handle him being good again.
Your take on the odd new angle by executives during the offseason is something to
certainly think about. Most analysts are blaming the economy for the non-action and it seems that the front offices are going
to ride this excuse -- and all its tentacles -- to the very end.
I
truly don't know which Lidge will show up. And nor do the Phillies.
As for the economy, this can't be classified as collusion if no one's paying out for the big players.
And if even the Yankees and Red Sox are holding their fire, players and their agents are going to panic sooner rather than
later. You can't argue with teams not wanting to spend a load of money on a certain player when they could find similar production
for a fraction of the cost; I just don't want to hear about the coveted draft picks when they ain't all that coveted if you
go by history.
I like the idea of Giambi taking the place of Stairs
on the Phillies. He probably takes a lot more walks and he can still belt HRs off the bench. Besides, I miss the 'stache.
Unless an American League team thinks Giambi can contribute as a DH for 85 or so games, he's not going
to have much choice but to take a Matt Stairs-type situation; and why not go to a contender like the Phillies, Braves, Giants,
Dodgers or Cardinals as a lethal lefty bat off the bench?
Franklin writes RE free agency:
I
actually think most of the posturing is to lower the prices of free agents.
It's not a bad strategy to be honest; and since they have to come up with an excuse, I guess the draft pick theory
isn't out of this world ludicrous, but people who know the success rate and cost of prospects can tear apart the theory with
little effort. The thing is, this attempt to hold down costs looks like it's working!
Amid all the heady self-adoration, the Phillies
have some issues.
What they need: A third baseman; a veteran starting pitcher; a utility
infielder/outfielder; bullpen help; a closer(?).
Free agents: 3B Pedro Feliz; RHP Pedro Martinez;
RHP Brett Myers; LHP Scott Eyre; RHP Chan Ho Park; C Paul Bako; INF Miguel Cairo; OF/1B Matt Stairs
The Phillies surprisingly declined Feliz's reasonable contract option of $5 million. They're looking in other directions
for a third baseman who would presumably have better on base numbers than Feliz. There's a chance Feliz returns at a cheaper
rate, but I think they'll find an alternative and Feliz will move on.
Who knows what Pedro's
going to do? After his performances in the post-season, it's obvious he can still pitch; but he can't be counted on to stay
healthy. There's a chance he returns to Philadelphia, but I wouldn't count on it.
Myers's time in Philadelphia is over. He'll be in surprisingly heavy demand because of his ability to start and relieve. Myers's
personality belongs in the bullpen and he'll get an offer to close somewhere (Detroit?) on a mutually advantageous contract.
Eyre's body is breaking down with arm issues and he spoke of retiring to be with his family. That said,
he can still pitch and the Phillies want him back. Expect him to return for another year.
Park has rejuvenated his career as a reliever, but the still harbors fantasies of being a starter. Unless a team mistakenly
decides that that's a good idea, he'll get offers as a reliever in many, many places. He could return to Philly.
Bako's a journeyman and the Phillies signing of Brian Schneider to a 2-year contract effectively ends
Bako's brief Phillies career. He'll get a job somewhere as a backup/Triple A insurance.
Cairo's a useful utility guy who's a better hitter than Eric Bruntlett. (At this point, I'm a better hitter
than Eric Bruntlett.) Cairo might be back.
Stairs looks like he'd be just as happy playing beer-league
softball and waiting for his turn to come up to the plate and crush a fastball then get back to his station next to the cooler.
He'll be able to bash fastballs until he's 60. He might be back.
Players available via trade:
RHP Joe Blanton; 3B/OF Greg Dobbs; LHP Cole Hamels; RHP Kyle Kendrick; RHP Brad Lidge; LHP Jamie Moyer; SS Jimmy
Rollins
Blanton is arbitration-eligible, is due a big raise from his $5.5 million salary
from 2009 and is a free agent after next season. He has value in that you know with him. You know you'll
get gutty efforts; you know he'll throw strikes; you know he'll give you innings, etc. That said, if a team
called and asked GM Ruben Amaro Jr about Blanton, he'd be more than willing to chat about him and maybe move him. I don't
expect it, but it's possible.
Dobbs had a shaky year as a lefty bat off the bench and is making $1.35
million next year. He can't play defense and there are better options available on the free agent market (Ross Gload?); Dobbs
could be dealt if someone's willing to take his contract. He can hit.
Surprised to see Hamels's
name here? Well, I think the Phillies are concerned about his up-and-down performance and were more than annoyed about his
frustrated comments during the World Series that he couldn't wait for the season to be over while he still was in line to
pitch Game 7. He's a guy who's not "on the block", but they'll listen to calls.
Kendrick's numbers aren't very good aside from his ability to hang around in games long enough to collect wins. There's
nothing wrong with that and he's good insurance as a spot-starter for someone. He's probably staying because he's cheap.
You want Brad Lidge?
Do you know which Brad Lidge you'll be getting?
Is it the unstoppable force and the key to the Phillies 2008 World Series win? "Light Out"
Lidge as he was with the Astros earlier in the decade? Or the mental/emotional quadriplegic who would quiver at the sight
of Eddie Gaedel coming up to the plate when he's in the midst of an unraveling?
Who knows?
Unless
the Phillies took a Barry Zito/Vernon Wells contract in return, Lidge's contract is unmovable with $24.5 million guaranteed
through 2011. The only thing they can do is hope his issues (physical and mental) are straightened out by next season; and
given his history, there's every chance for that to happen. He'll be the Phillies closer next year for better or worse. You
can venture a guess as to which it'll be.
Giving Moyer a 2-year contract after the World
Series win in 2008 wasn't the smartest thing in the world to do. He's a guy who's not going to leave the field voluntarily
no matter how badly his body breaks down and now he's been hospitalized with an infection after groin surgery. He might simply
be released with the Phillies eating his $6.5 million salary in 2010.
Surprised to see Rollins's
name here? Don't be.
Rollins's
game is declining and once he begins to slow down physically in earnest, what is he bringing to the table aside from a big,
flapping mouth?
Rollins's bluster
and arrogance were charming while he was winning the MVP in 2007, but it's becoming a case of diminishing returns for the
loquacious Rollins. He's got $9.5 million guaranteed through next year with the potential for being a free agent if the Phillies
decline his 2011 option.
I can
tell you now that he's going to start squawking about his contract as early as spring training and could cause some serious
problems in the clubhouse. I doubt many of the Phillies are thrilled about his constant yapping. He probably won't be moved,
but if someone calls and asks, the Phillies would be stupid not to listen.
Non-tender candidates: INF/OF
Eric Bruntlett; RHP Clay Condrey; LHP Jack Taschner
I'm not quite sure what it is that Bruntlett does
that keeps him in the big leagues.
Condrey has some use as a reliever for someone, but
he's arbitration-eligible and will top the $1 million mark (maybe $1.5 million) in his award or via agreement with the club
and that's too much money for a guy like him.
Taschner's main attributes are that he's lefty and
is breathing. He's got rotten control and got rocked equally by lefty and right bats. Gone.
Players
to pursue:
Via free agency: LHP Mike Gonzalez (Braves); RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves);
LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); 3B Melvin Mora (Orioles); RHP Octavio Dotel (White Sox); 1B Jason Giambi (Rockies); RHP Jason
Marquis (Rockies); RHP Kiko Calero (Marlins); 3B Adrian Beltre (Mariners); 3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); 1B/OF Ross Gload (Marlins);
SS/3B Miguel Tejada (Astros); 3B Chone Figgins (Angels); LHP Randy Wolf (Dodgers); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics): RHP
Miguel Batista (Mariners); INF/OF Mark DeRosa (Cardinals); RHP Russ Springer (Rays); INF Marco Scutaro (Blue Jays); RHP John
Smoltz
The bullpen help is out there and available with Gonzalez, Soriano and
Dotel----guys who can close if absolutely necessary in the event of the need to send Lidge to a mental institution.
There are a load of third basemen available for various prices. Mora's a good fielder and a good guy
who might see his bat reignite in the Phillies lineup and at their bandbox ballpark. Figgins was supposedly on the Phillies
radar; I think committing a load of money to Figgins is a mistake. Tejada won't have much choice but to move to third base
for any team interested in him and he can still hit. DeRosa is in heavy demand from numerous contending teams. Scutaro wouldn't
be a bad idea for third base at the right price.
Giambi could fill the Dobbs/Stairs role as a power
lefty bat off the bench and he still walks a lot.
Davis, Wolf, Marquis and Duchscherer are risky/relatively
inexpensive/mid-to-back of the rotation starters who'd fill the hole left by Moyer if the Phillies drop him.
Smoltz can still pitch as a starter or reliever.
Via trade: RHP Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers); 3B Jhonny
Peralta (Indians); RHP Kevin Millwood (Rangers); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); 3B Garrett Atkins (Rockies); 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
(Padres); RHP Chris Young (Padres); RHP Heath Bell (Padres); 3B Mark Reynolds (Diamondbacks)
The Phillies are still keeping tabs on Halladay and still have the prospects to get it done if they're willing to totally
gut the farm system and pay the cash it'll cost to keep the big righty. The Phillies have to sign Cliff Lee to an extension
at some point, so a Halladay move is a big leap in the financial department for a team with a budget. Maybe Hamels would be
a chip to get it done.
Jackson's out there for the taking. Millwood's available and pitched pretty
well for the Phillies in 2003-2004.
Peralta would be a low-cost option at third base.
Could Uggla move to third? The Marlins have no qualms about trading within the division.
Anyone and everyone is up for discussion with the Padres and Bell would be a good set-up man/replacement closer.
Reynolds hit 44 homers, but is a rotten fielder and strikes out 200 times a year. Would the Diamondbacks
listen to offers for him? It doesn't hurt to ask.
Teams are using draft pick compensation as an excuse
to shun free agents:
Do
you know the likelihood of even a first round draft pick making it to the big leagues to not just be a star, but to be moderately
productive?
It's hit or miss.
But teams are using the newly terrifying implication
of draft....pick....compensation.....OOOOOH!!! to justify their reluctance to go after needed pieces at the big league
level when there are players who they need to drastically improve their clubs.
Mike Francesa was talking about the Brian Cashman discussion yesterday morning as
Cashman said he wasn't going to go after a reliever like Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano because of their status in costing
a first round pick to sign. To me, Gonzalez is a perfect fit for the Yankees. This isn't a situation like Kyle Farnsworth
or Steve Karsay----Gonzalez would be an ideal bridge to Mariano Rivera and even an occasional closer, but Cashman is hoarding
his draft picks as if he's Jimmy Johnson coaching the Cowboys.
It's nonsense.
First of all, there's no guarantee that any first round pick----no matter who he is----is going to even make it to the big
leagues. The Yankees got a sliding Joba Chamberlain with the 41st pick because of his arm issues and overwork at the University
of Nebraska. Smart teams make their best picks later in the draft or via undrafted free agents. That's where the real talent
evaluation shows itself. Every team knows who the obvious top tier picks are; it's finding the unpolished gems where organizations
are built.
Picking a year at random
(and I'm really picking a year at random, not finding a conveniently poor year to suit my purposes), let's see how
the first rounders from 2003 have done. Six years is an ample amount of time to judge, so here we go:
2003 First
Round Picks:
Rays-OF Delmon Young
Brewers-INF Rickie Weeks
Tigers-RHP Kyle Sleeth
Padres-RHP
Tim Stauffer
Royals-OF Christopher Lubanski
Cubs-OF Ryan Harvey
Orioles-OF Nick Markakis
Pirates-LHP Paul Maholm
Rangers-LHP
John Danks
Rockies-3B Ian Stewart
Indians-1B Michael Aubrey
Mets-OF Lastings Milledge
Blue Jays-INF Aaron Hill
Reds-RHP
Ryan Wagner
White Sox-OF Brian N. Anderson
Marlins-RHP Jeffrey
Allison
Red Sox-OF David Murphy
Indians-OF Bradley Snyder
Diamondbacks-1B/OF Conor Jackson
Nationals-RHP Chad Cordero
Twins-3B
Matthew Moses
Giants-RHP David Aardsma
Angels-SS Brandon Wood
Dodgers-RHP Chad Billingsley
Athletics-RHP Bradley Sullivan
Athletics-3B
Brian Snyder
Yankees-3B Eric Duncan
Cardinals-C Daric Barton
Diamondbacks-OF Carlos Quentin
Royals-C Mitch Maier
Indians-RHP
Adam Miller
Red Sox-OF Matt Murton
Athletics-SS Omar Quintanilla
Giants-RHP Roger Whitaker
Braves-RHP Luis Atilano
Braves-C
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Mariners-SS Adam Jones
Now, far be it from me to rip teams and their strategies for no reason,
but do you see one name above, aside from Chad Billingsley and Nick Markakis, that would cause any great consternation to
a team to miss out on had they signed a coveted and necessary free agent?
The majority of them won't even make it to the big leagues at all and would've been
released from their clubs outright had they not been drafted so highly to begin with.
For all the Moneyball nonsense of the playoffs being a "crapshoot",
the real crapshoot is the draft. And the first rounders, while being shots in the dark and based on luck many, many times,
are also expensive in their own right with massive signing bonuses and guaranteed big league contracts.
This is not the NFL or NBA where the players go straight
to the big time either. So when you hear about teams hoarding their draft picks, look at them slightly askew and ask the question,
"hoarding them for what? You're telling me we're not signing a Matt Holliday; a Jason Bay; a Mark DeRosa because
of some draft pick who won't be here for 3-5 years?"
The failure in the draft is prevalent. Check for yourself----Baseball Reference Draft----and rightfully question what the agenda is exactly. Are the building an organization or finding excuses to be cheap?
If you really want to make the potential Halladay deal
turn out to be a somethin' for nothin' type of deal a la Johan, I'm sure the Brewers would field a straight up offer for Carlos
Gomez.
One would think that the Blue Jays wouldn't be as greedy as the Twins
were and self-sabotage, but who knows? I can't imagine the anger of the Blue Jays fans----who've had to deal with the whole
J.P. Ricciardi sideshow for so long----if they wound up getting pennies on the dollar for Halladay; but that's where it's
heading if they don't strike fast.
John
Seal writes RE the Athletics:
The day I've been waiting for finally arrived: Prince
Paul's Hot Stove Heater for the 2010 Athletics. Job well done, Prince. I don't see the A's trading Davis, but now's the time
to do it. And as the world's biggest Jack Cust fan (hey, I don't always have to think logically, do I?), I'm excited to see
what his twin on the infield, Dallas McPherson, may be able to do. Thoughts?
I spend my entire life thinking illogically. It seems to work in my never-ending quest to create anarchy.
Here's something funny John, after you're entirely
justified lashing at my continually mentioning Bobby Crosby as a useful player for certain teams, it turns out the Red Sox
really are interested in him as I suggested earlier. Why, I dunno.
As for Beane, he's been remarkably indecisive with some of his reclamation projects like Davis and Cust.
Both have use, but Cust is about to become really pricey for what he does and they could get similar production from a better
hitter like Jim Thome on a short term deal as long as he's exclusively a DH. I don't think Cust is movable at this point;
they could get something for Davis.
With McPherson, he's 29; he's washed out with the Angels and Marlins----two teams known for spotting talent and giving unappreciated
players a chance to play; and he's never ever done anything in the big leagues when given a shot; he didn't play at all in
2009 after the Marlins dumped him and he signed with the Giants; and he's had major back problems.
Put it this way: if the A's get anything from McPherson, Beane should
head to Vegas and straight for the roulette wheel. Or buy some Powerball lottery tickets.
Send out a search party for Billy Beane's missing
genius. A big one.
What they need: A big time power bat at first base or the outfield;
a solid, durable, veteran starting pitcher; a third baseman.
Free agents: SS Bobby
Crosby; RHP Justin Duchscherer; INF Nomar Garciaparra; INF Adam Kennedy; RHP Brett Tomko
Both Crosby and the Athletics seem to have mutually agreed to part ways. Crosby's been atrocious over the past few
years; doesn't have any interest in being a utility player in a retooling situation in Oakland; and should have offers elsewhere
for his versatility and inexpensiveness. Maybe a change of scenery will wake up his bat.
Duchscherer missed the entire 2009 season with injuries and dealing with depression. He's been injury-prone throughout
his career, but is in heavy demand on a short-term deal. People may not realize it, but Duchscherer has been an All Star twice----as
a reliever in 2005 and as a starter in 2008. At age 32, he has time to rehabilitate his career. He'll move along to a better
club with more of a chance to contend. (The Red Sox are said to be very interested.)
Has Nomar retired yet?
Kennedy had a fine year (.289 Avg; 11 homers; filling in admirably at
third base----a position he'd never before played in the majors) after he was released by the Cardinals and dumped by the
Rays. He's carving a new career for himself as a utility infielder and should find himself in a better situation (the Phillies?)
with a decent contract maybe for more than one year. He won't be back in Oakland.
Tomko----a
journeyman's journeyman who would make Kurt Bevacqua shake his head at the frequent changes of uniform----pitched reasonably
well for the A's after he joined them in August. He'll be 37 in April and would be well-served to stay in Oakland.
Players available via trade: 1B Daric Barton; 3B Eric Chavez; DH/1B/OF Jack Cust; OF Rajai Davis;
2B Mark Ellis; OF Scott Hairston; RHP Michael Wuertz
People forget that the key to the Mark Mulder trade
to the Cardinals was not Dan Haren, but Daric Barton. Barton's done almost nothing in the big leagues since an impressive
audition in 2007; and he's not the sharpest knife in the drawer (he almost killed himself diving headfirst into a shallow
pool in 2008). With that in mind, he's still only 24 so he could have some value on the market or if the A's really believe
in him. I think their faith is wavering.
Chavez's back problems have ruined a player who was
a rising star. He's got $15 million guaranteed through 2010 and it's just bad luck for the A's that he got hurt; there's no
one to blame.
Beane should've traded Cust after reviving his flagging career in 2007.
Now, he's arbitration-eligible; is due a big raise from his $2.8 million salary in 2009; and the holes in his game
make him almost worthless to trade since there are so many better options in the flooded market. Cust strikes out too much;
has a glove made of solid granite; and is slow and streaky. He's going nowhere.
I
really like Davis. He can run and he's a better hitter than he's given credit for; but he's arbitration-eligible and the A's
need a power bat more than they need Davis's speed.
Ellis is a serviceable second baseman; he has some
pop and plays the position well. He's affordable ($6 million next year) and probably isn't going anywhere.
Hairston has some use and can hit the ball out of the park, but he didn't hit after the A's acquired him from the Padres
and is arbitration-eligible. He might get non-tendered.
Wuertz is one of the more underrated relievers in
baseball. The Cubs missed him terribly in their hideous bullpen last season and every year, he puts up the innings, appearances
and strikeouts and does his job in a quiet fashion. He's arbitration-eligible, but the A's are crazy if they non-tender him.
On the trade market, he'd be in heavy demand for contending teams like the Yankees, White Sox, Red Sox and a bunch of other
clubs.
Non-tender candidates: Aside from Davis and Hairston, I don't see anyone
for whom it makes even the slightest sense to just dump without trying to trade.
Players
to pursue:
Via free agency: 1B Adam LaRoche (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks);
1B Chad Tracy (Diamondbacks); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); 1B/3B Aubrey Huff (Tigers); 1B Nick
Johnson (Marlins); DH Vladimir Guerrero (Angels); RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); RHP Vicente Padilla (Dodgers); 3B Joe Crede (Twins);
1B/DH Carlos Delgado (Mets); DH Hideki Matsui (Yankees); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); 3B Pedro Feliz (Phillies); RHP Brad
Penny (Giants); 1B Russell Branyan (Mariners); 3B/1B Hank Blalock (Rangers); SS/3B Miguel Tejada (Astros); RHP Ben Sheets
Most of these names are players to plug holes; guys who may not have other options
than to go to Oakland and rebuild their careers; or may slip through the cracks.
LaRoche,
Johnson and Delgado will have offers elsewhere, but the A's should keep tabs on them to see if they end up on the outside
looking in and are available for a cheap, short-term, incentive-laden deal.
Crede's back issues are
similar to those of Chavez, but he'd come on a cheap contract and is worth a shot if all other options disappear.
Penny's asking for a lot of money based on a brief, late-season hot streak for the Giants and might
be in for a rude awakening as the winter shakes itself out. Beane has a tendency of pouncing on situations like that and getting
useful pieces cheaply.
Tejada had a good relationship with Beane while he was with the A's early
in his career. Would he come back to play third base? Maybe.
Via trade: 3B Edwin
Encarnacion (Blue Jays); 1B Lyle Overbay (Blue Jays); RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers); 3B Jhonny Peralta (Indians); 3B/1B Jorge
Cantu (Marlins); 2B/1B/DH Dan Uggla (Marlins); OF Milton Bradley (Cubs); 3B Garrett Atkins (Rockies); 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
(Padres); RHP Chris Young (Padres)
Encarnacion has a ton of talent and is arbitration-eligible.
Overbay is available too and is due a cheap $7 million next year.
The Tigers are desperately
trying to move Jackson for reasons no one seems to understand. Teams might get scared wondering why they want to trade a pitcher
who's young and looked like Dave Stewart early last season before a heavy workload tired him down the stretch. Beane may not
be a genius, but he's not afraid to make bold moves.
Peralta's shift to third base makes him attractive
to a team like the A's. Atkins is out there for the taking and the A's and Rockies have a trading relationship after the Matt
Holliday blockbuster last year.
Uggla's getting traded and is a prime candidate to
move to first base.
Yeah, I know. Milton Bradley. But he was with the A's before and performed
and behaved himself----mostly. The A's could get him for nothing and the Cubs would pay most of his salary.
Amid all the ridicule Beane received last year as the A's collapsed following an off-season in which
they were a trendy pick to win the AL West, they're not that far away from contending. They have a load of young
pitching up and down the staff. If they get a couple of bats, they could surprise. Beane, while not being a "genius"
on the level of the idiotic implication of Moneyball, is still one of the top GMs in baseball and could replenish his club
and his image with a couple of bold, smart moves this winter.
Echoes of Johan:
It's almost eerie how history is repeating itself with Roy Halladay as the latest news comes out that he won't okay
a trade anywhere after the winter----ESPN Story. And that history is almost identical to what happened with Johan Santana in 2007-2008.
Santana knew he wasn't going to be back with the Twins; he knew he was
going to get traded; and he asked for it to be completed before the season started. Halladay is being a little bit more aggressive
in his attempts to get out of Toronto.
I called this weeks ago.
After
Halladay quietly requested a move at mid-season and then-GM J.P. Ricciardi bollixed everything up as if he was trying
to get himself fired (it worked), Halladay looked royally pissed for the rest of the season. He wants out. And if the
Blue Jays and new GM Alex Anthopolous are going to mess around, Halladay's going to play hardball.
If this is the case, if things are going down this road, the Blue
Jays had better get something done and quick. The Yankees and Red Sox were going through the motions for Santana. They didn't
really want Santana for the packages the Twins were demanding and then have to face the prospect of signing what was essentially
a free agent contract with the pitcher. Now, it's happening again with Halladay.
Is Anthopolous going to overplay his hand as Twins GM Bill Smith did in getting
literally nothing for Santana? Unless something's done in the next couple of weeks, that possibility will come closer and
closer to reality. Cooler heads prevailed with Santana and while the Yankees and Red Sox are chasing Halladay not just for
his brilliance, but to keep him away from the other team, they're not going to mortgage the farm to get him. Might it be enough
for either club just to get Halladay out of the league and away from their divisional rival? The Angels and Dodgers are in
on Halladay too as are the White Sox; but as the days pass what happened with Santana might be happening again right before
our very eyes.
The Mets are lurking.
And waiting.
Again.
GM Omar Minaya was rebuffed by the Twins in his initial discussions for Santana and famously told
his bosses on the QT, "it's gonna come back to us". Is he saying the same thing now with Halladay?
Anthopolous had better trade Halladay when he gets
an acceptable offer. Or else the Mets "weak" farm system may not look so weak after all as D-day approaches with
Halladay.
